GWT: PL Matchweek 21

[YNWA14]

That is so not true.

Because...?

 

[The Abusement Park]

Because...?

What do you mean? United, City, Arsenal, and Spurs are playing worse than they were last year. United and Arsenal are in or near crisis. City lost their best defender and are significantly more vulnerable to basically everyone. Chelsea had a transfer ban and are playing youngster and have been ridiculously inconsistent. Spurs have been horrible outside of a few games. I really don't think there's any argument that any top 6 side besides Pool has improved this year.

 

[YNWA14]

What do you mean? United, City, Arsenal, and Spurs are playing worse than they were last year. United and Arsenal are in or near crisis. City lost their best defender and are significantly more vulnerable to basically everyone. Chelsea had a transfer ban and are playing youngster and have been ridiculously inconsistent. Spurs have been horrible outside of a few games. I really don't think there's any argument that any top 6 side besides Pool has improved this year.

'Should have been' is pretty operative in what I said in the part that you bolded based on the summer and relative to last season, and I mentioned City and Chelsea as two exceptions. The main thing here too is that quality and on field play don't always translate into results. Like was mentioned in the previous post the actual 'expected' stats based on play have been pretty similar to last season. These can have a domino effect when the ball isn't dropping for you (manager sacking, rotation, etc.). Results aren't always an indication of strength or weakness; would people say that Spurs were the 2nd best team in Europe last season? It's important to look at the on field product, and there are often other influencing factors that dictate results especially when you're only looking at a partial picture of the season. It's entirely possible that City go on a huge run in the 2nd half of the season, Arsenal (they looked great vs. United for example), Spurs, United, etc. find form and so on. I used to watch Liverpool dominate games frequently from start to finish and end up losing because of a mistake at the back or a lack of finish, or other things that people would claim were down to 'luck'. They weren't weak at that point.

 

[Live in the Now]

What do you mean? United, City, Arsenal, and Spurs are playing worse than they were last year. United and Arsenal are in or near crisis. City lost their best defender and are significantly more vulnerable to basically everyone. Chelsea had a transfer ban and are playing youngster and have been ridiculously inconsistent. Spurs have been horrible outside of a few games. I really don't think there's any argument that any top 6 side besides Pool has improved this year.

Nope, there's really not. That being said I would disagree with the idea posted above yours that Liverpool is playing any worse than last season. If anything they're better. With Alisson in the team they've conceded five goals in the league and this is with a large amount of injuries to players who prevent the opposition from scoring. They are very compact defensively. They also only need 40 goals the last half of the season to equal last year's team scoring totals in all competitions.

 

[YNWA14]

Take this as an example. 'x-stats' are far from perfect, but measure a lot of things that we don't tend to look at or remember. United early in the season I remember particularly having some 'unfortunate' results where they had the lion's share of the scoring opportunities.

The first image is the table after 21 games in 2019, and the second is after 21 games (minus Liverpool) in 2020. Chelsea have seen a drop of under 5 expected points, but United have actually been performing better as have some other teams relative to last season's form and relative to the team that was in the same spot of the 'expected' table last season at the same time, and the top 10 looks very similar in strength (especially when Liverpool will likely get another +3 when at 21 games). Chelsea have been up and down for sure, but the improvement of the other teams in the top 10 can easily explain why they might be expected to have picked up a few less points. You can make your own conclusions I guess with what has happened and has been expected, but given actual performance domestically and in Europe (which is of course relevant), there's very little that indicates a weaker strength of the league this season and most likely the 'unlikely' results will normalize over the season.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Nope, there's really not. That being said I would disagree with the idea posted above yours that Liverpool is playing any worse than last season. If anything they're better. With Alisson in the team they've conceded five goals in the league and this is with a large amount of injuries to players who prevent the opposition from scoring. They are very compact defensively. They also only need 40 goals the last half of the season to equal last year's team scoring totals in all competitions.

I didn’t say that Liverpool we’re playing worse this year than last year?

 

[Live in the Now]

I didn’t say that Liverpool we’re playing worse this year than last year?

Someone else did

 

[les Habs]

How else can you really compare relative performance? Saying it's a weak league, as compared to what? They're beating teams that are in decent position in continental leagues. Comparing it with past seasons, the traditional big clubs are certainly not as good as they usually are.

I mean, for what it's worth, you could use some metrics. The xG/xGa stats are relatively similar to last season (if the argument is that this season is weaker than last). City have a higher xGa (22 this season, as opposed to 17.3) but also a 55xG and 51 the year prior. Liverpool are relatively similar (just a drop in xG from 45.7 to 42), Chelsea has more xG, but also more xGa, (40 xG versus 37.4 xG, and 24 to 18.5), United's actually way off in xGa (with 21 last year compared with 28.86 this year, and similar xG. Leicester has a massive jump of 34.5 up from 26. For comparison sake, Barca are down a bit in xG so far, but similar against. Real seeing some improved numbers, but Atletico seeing the main jump in performance so far.

But it's also only little more than halfway through the season. Two of the traditional powers whacked managers, but should see an uptick in performance (though Spurs might not).

As for whether Wolves or Leicester are worth mentioning, I think they're both better than all but two or three teams in each other European leagues. I think in a two legged match, Leicester might be a match for all but 5 or 6 clubs in Europe, over performing or not. I think some of that discussion is arguably whether or not they're clubs who in a one off, or a knockout tie can show up. Sustained excellent play is really only happening for Liverpool.


I do think the league might be objectively weaker than prior seasons, but I don't know if it's that much off the course. Especially when you consider a few of the clubs further down the table are doing a bit better, and some of the clubs who are poor right now, should see an improvement as the season goes.

I’m not going to reply on my phone apart from saying are you serious with your initial questions? Again, continental performance in how it’s been presented and other leagues are completely irrelevant. This a a comparison of this season’s Premiership to last season’s. Other leagues have absolutely NOTHING to do with it.

As for “expected” anything, there expectation and then there’s reality. And links to a source would be nice.

 

[les Habs]

Someone else did

Fell free to quote or @ me next time.

playing worse than last season doesn’t mean bad or much worse. I just don’t think they’re as dominant in the matches I’ve seen.

 

[Live in the Now]

Fell free to quote or @ me next time.

playing worse than last season doesn’t mean bad or much worse. I just don’t think they’re as dominant in the matches I’ve seen.

I would have as I’m not usually the person to do what I did, but I’ve been extremely busy to the point where I could barely have time to type that at the time. My mom just got out of the hospital after having a cancerous tumor removed and this has been a hard few days to say the least.

 

[Chimaera]

That sucks, I’m sorry to hear that. My dad just went through the same.


As for stats, EPL xG Table and Scorers for the 2019/2020 season | Understat.com with the same date (January 5th).

I’m on board with it being weak, but I’m not sure if it’s drastically worse. Some of the comparisons will need to be analyzed at the end of season

 

[Machinehead]

Low-energy Liverpool would be 5th in La Liga.

Weak league.

Sad.

 

[Duchene2MacKinnon]

Low-energy Liverpool would be 5th in La Liga.

Weak league.

Sad.

This was basically the energy epl fans had in 2011

 

[Machinehead]

This was basically the energy epl fans had in 2011

So we're mad about Twitter from 9 years ago?

Sounds about right.

 

[Duchene2MacKinnon]

So we're mad about Twitter from 9 years ago?

Sounds about right.

Who’s mad?

 

[Machinehead]

Who’s mad?

Probably Pep Guardiola about something.

 

[Duchene2MacKinnon]

Probably Pep Guardiola about something.

At least he isn’t yelling at wind

 

[Machinehead]

At least he isn’t yelling at wind

How do you know?

 

[Duchene2MacKinnon]

How do you know?

Klopp has a monopoly on that.

 

[Machinehead]

Klopp has a monopoly on that.

Klopp can't help it if the wind bothers him. Don't height discriminate.

 

[les Habs]

I would have as I’m not usually the person to do what I did, but I’ve been extremely busy to the point where I could barely have time to type that at the time. My mom just got out of the hospital after having a cancerous tumor removed and this has been a hard few days to say the least.

Fair enough. Sorry to hear about your Mom. I know what that’s like and I know it’s tough. I hope she’s recovering well.

 

[les Habs]

That sucks, I’m sorry to hear that. My dad just went through the same.


As for stats, EPL xG Table and Scorers for the 2019/2020 season | Understat.com with the same date (January 5th).

I’m on board with it being weak, but I’m not sure if it’s drastically worse. Some of the comparisons will need to be analyzed at the end of season

I appreciate the link.

I stand by it being notably worse simply down to the performance of the "big clubs" alone. The rest of the clubs aren't much changed for the better with the exception of Leicester.

 

[Live in the Now]

Fair enough. Sorry to hear about your Mom. I know what that’s like and I know it’s tough. I hope she’s recovering well.

She's doing ok, but she can't talk anymore. So that part sucks the most.

 

[les Habs]

She's doing ok, but she can't talk anymore. So that part sucks the most.

Better to have someone there, voice or not. Easy for me to say I know, but sometimes just going for a walk with my parents with nothing said is an experience on it's own.