Salary Cap: Pittsburgh Penguins Salary Cap Thread - Pets is signed, so now back to JJ

[Gurglesons]

He has an odd end to end rush every now and again, which tricks people into thinking he's way, way better than he is.

Agree with the rest of that, too.

I think it could be argued he was their best D overall on the cup run. Super fun D, but I’m curious if Niskanen held him up a lot more than Caps fans want to admit.

 

[Gurglesons]

Nate Schmidt ate a ton of the minutes that Orlov is getting now.
I still like Orlov, but he's not going to shine as a #2/3 guy.

Weird flex considering they won a cup with him being a #2/3 guy and no Schmidt.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

He was on pace to do that in not even 30 games, and he wasn't particularly close in 2017-2018. And again, why are you comparing the offensive totals of Schultz, who's an OFD, and Gudbranson, who is the furthest thing from an OFD? That's like saying Brian Dumoulin sucks because he doesn't put up numbers.

Because, as I said, defensemen who put up 10 points in a good year aren't very valuable even if they are good defensively, and Gudbranson hasn't even been that. Outside of 20 games last year, Gudbranson has been worse than Schultz in his own end for years in addition to putting up 1/4 to 1/3 of the production.

I guess the Penguins should trade Dumoulin too in order to make cap space for Schultz, since points seem to be all that matters.

Dumoulin is more than twice as productive as Guds and has a track record longer than 20 games with a babysitter of being good defensively.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Because, as I said, defensemen who put up 10 points in a good year aren't very valuable even if they are good defensively, and Gudbranson hasn't even been that. Outside of 20 games last year, Gudbranson has been worse than Schultz in his own end for years in addition to putting up 1/4 to 1/3 of the production.

So why is Dumoulin valuable then? Dumoulin is marginally more productive than this and he's good defensively. What is the point cutoff for a guy being valuable? Was Dumoulin valuable on the two cup runs, where he had 16 and 15 points? Were Lovejoy and Cole not valuable on the 2016 team?

And again, we're talking about a guy who's going to be making $6-$7 million, isn't good defensively and is only going to be a 30 point defenseman normally that doesn't kill penalties and doesn't provide anything outside of his offense. Not only that, but why are we comparing Schultz to Gudbranson straight up, as if that's the straight up swap that's going to happen?

Dumoulin is more than twice as productive as Guds and has a track record longer than 20 games with a babysitter of being good defensively.

I feel like you use these kind of phrases to make it seem like a difference is better than it actually is

Dumoulin is a 15-20 point defenseman. Gudbranson is like a 7-10 point defenseman. You're technically right to say "Dumoulin is twice as productive", but that doesn't make the argument honest. Crosby is twice as productive as Hornqvist just as Dumoulin is twice as productive as Gudbranson, but one of those differences is a lot bigger than the other.

 

[JackFr]

I do not want to resign Schultz. He has absolutely fallen off a cliff since 17-18 and I do not want to pay for his downswing to continue past 30. He does not deserve a raise and in fact deserves a significant pay cut, but as a RD with offence he will get paid more than 5.5 most likely.

"But how are we going to replace Schultz? We'll have a big hole in our top 4!" - we've had a big hole in our top 4 for the past two years. I'd rather fill it with Julius Honka than 6.5 million dollar Schultz.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

So why is Dumoulin valuable then? Dumoulin is marginally more productive than this and he's good defensively. What is the point cutoff for a guy being valuable? Was Dumoulin valuable on the two cup runs, where he had 16 and 15 points? Were Lovejoy and Cole not valuable on the 2016 team?

And again, we're talking about a guy who's going to be making $6-$7 million, isn't good defensively and is only going to be a 30 point defenseman normally that doesn't kill penalties and doesn't provide anything outside of his offense. Not only that, but why are we comparing Schultz to Gudbranson straight up, as if that's the straight up swap that's going to happen?

Let's look at the actual numbers.

Last year:
Dumo - .30 P/G
Guds - .13 P/G

Last 2 years:
Dumo - .26 P/G
Guds - .11 P/G

Last 3 years:
Dumo - .25 P/G
Guds - .13 P/G

They're not comparable points-wise. Dumo is the steadying influence. Gudbranson is the guy who REQUIRES a steadying influence. That's why one is valuable and the other isn't.

Schultz has been better than Guds defensively in recent years outside of a 20 game aberration, on top of being much more productive.

I feel like you use these kind of phrases to make it seem like a difference is better than it actually is

Dumoulin is a 15-20 point defenseman. Gudbranson is like a 7-10 point defenseman. You're technically right to say "Dumoulin is twice as productive", but that doesn't make the argument honest. Crosby is twice as productive as Hornqvist just as Dumoulin is twice as productive as Gudbranson, but one of those differences is a lot bigger than the other.

The numbers are the numbers. The difference would be less pronounced, again, if it weren't for the giant gap in defensive ability.

 

[ZeroPucksGiven]

Weird flex considering they won a cup with him being a #2/3 guy and no Schmidt.

I think Orlov was punching above his weight class that entire year. Don't get me wrong, I think he's a fine player and I'm not dogging him. But that season was an anomaly for him.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Let's look at the actual numbers.

Last year:
Dumo - .30 P/G
Guds - .13 P/G

Last 2 years:
Dumo - .26 P/G
Guds - .11 P/G

Last 3 years:
Dumo - .25 P/G
Guds - .13 P/G

They're not comparable points-wise. Dumo is the steadying influence. Gudbranson is the guy who REQUIRES a steadying influence. That's why one is valuable and the other isn't.

Schultz has been better than Guds defensively in recent years outside of a 20 game aberration, on top of being much more productive.



The numbers are the numbers. The difference would be less pronounced, again, if it weren't for the giant gap in defensive ability.

You didn't answer my question in that post. Was Brian Dumoulin a valuable player for the Penguins from 2015 to 2018? Were Lovejoy and Cole valuable players for the Penguins in 2015-2016? What is the cutoff for being "valuable" to a team? Why is a guy who's good defensively and putting up 15-18 points "valuable" but a guy who's good defensively while putting up 10 points not valuable?

You're saying "they're not comparable offensively" because you're including the 1 season Dumoulin has had above 20 points. From 2015-2018, Dumoulin had 16 points in 79 games, 15 points in 70 games and 18 points in 80 games. Was Dumoulin valuable in those 3 years? And if he was, why is a difference of 5-8 points for defensive defensemen the difference between being valuable or not? You either think that all of Lovejoy, Cole and Dumoulin weren't valuable to the 2016 team or you're just applying arbitrary standards to prop up Schultz, those are your two options.

The point here is that it's stupid to judge defensive defensemen based on points, and you're being insanely disingenuous to act like Gudbranson is going to be replacing Schultz.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Maybe it might be wise to say "We should probably take a long look at both Schultz and Gudbranson this season before coming to any sweeping conclusions?"

 

[Riptide]

Not really. Dumo is miles better defensively than Schultz, so if Schultz isn't putting up a fair amount more of points in order to compensate for the difference....

It's not just about the points though. You can still help a line and be a net asset even if you're not getting a ton of production in the process.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Maybe it might be wise to say "We should probably take a long look at both Schultz and Gudbranson this season before coming to any sweeping conclusions?"

Idk, I feel like the Penguins potential cap structure alone is enough of a justification to say no to re-signing Schultz. He either has another bad year and you don't want to keep him or he has a good year and a team gives him stupid money in free agency. If someone is giving Tyler Myers 6 years at $6 million, I really struggle seeing Schultz get less than $6.5 million regardless of how he plays this year and he's getting above $7 million if he has a good year.

 

[K Fleur]

Maybe it might be wise to say "We should probably take a long look at both Schultz and Gudbranson this season before coming to any sweeping conclusions?"

Nope.

We know all we need to know about Gudbranson after his 20 games here and we know all we need to know about Schultz after his broken leg season.

No point in letting things play out.

 

[Riptide]

I do not want to resign Schultz. He has absolutely fallen off a cliff since 17-18 and I do not want to pay for his downswing to continue past 30. He does not deserve a raise and in fact deserves a significant pay cut, but as a RD with offence he will get paid more than 5.5 most likely.

"But how are we going to replace Schultz? We'll have a big hole in our top 4!" - we've had a big hole in our top 4 for the past two years. I'd rather fill it with Julius Honka than 6.5 million dollar Schultz.

I'm going to write off the 18/19 JS just due to his injury and missing most of the season. But I'd happily pay the 17/18 version of him 6.5m before going to Honka. There's a reason why Honka after 3 pro seasons on a team with questionable D has only once played more than 30 games (42) and who after 3 seasons (the last 2 in the NHL) has been a scratch more often then not. And if you do re-sign Schultz (or someone else) I think Guds is gone.

About the only way you can get away with not paying Schultz or paying to replace him with a quality replacement, is if Guds and MP continue to play like they did last season. Then MP is the new Schultz as a LD and Guds is just the new Cole on RD.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Idk, I feel like the Penguins potential cap structure alone is enough of a justification to say no to re-signing Schultz. He either has another bad year and you don't want to keep him or he has a good year and a team gives him stupid money in free agency. If someone is giving Tyler Myers 6 years at $6 million, I really struggle seeing Schultz get less than $6.5 million regardless of how he plays this year and he's getting above $7 million if he has a good year.

Well I'd be a hell of a hypocrite if I disagreed with that after basically posting the same thing yesterday. But a big season changes a lot, ya know? I don't know how likely it is but if he puts up a great year (50-60pts) and actually sticks to his assertion that he would like to stay here on as friendly a deal as can be expected (6-7M)... there is a good case to be made that you pay him that and figure out the rest of the defense from there.

I also just cannot put any kind of stock into Gudbranson turning things around based on like 20 games and a couple of very good showings in the preseason. I'm not at all crapping on you guys... I'm all about healthy debate especially when there are no games to actually watch... I'm just saying that it merits more time and consideration.

 

[Andy99]

I'll take ours.

I agree only because the third pair listed did not include JJ...if our third pair is JJ-Guds I’m taking Washington’s blueline....

 

[Empoleon8771]

Well I'd be a hell of a hypocrite if I disagreed with that after basically posting the same thing yesterday. But a big season changes a lot, ya know? I don't know how likely it is but if he puts up a great year (50-60pts) and actually sticks to his assertion that he would like to stay here on as friendly a deal as can be expected (6-7M)... there is a good case to be made that you pay him that and figure out the rest of the defense from there.

I also just cannot put any kind of stock into Gudbranson turning things around based on like 20 games and a couple of very good showings in the preseason. I'm not at all crapping on you guys... I'm all about healthy debate especially when there are no games to actually watch... I'm just saying that it merits more time and consideration.

Yeah, this is the lone exception for where re-signing Schultz should be a priority. However, my assumption is that based on how Schultz has operated in the past, he's not going to be a guy that gives the Penguins a team friendly deal. Galchenyuk might, but I think Schultz definitely won't. He's a guy that commanded a huge payday on a short term deal after 1 good season to "repay" the Penguins for fixing him.

If Schultz puts up 50 points and is willing to sign for the Tyler Myers deal or less, you try whatever you can to make that work. The problem is that I view both of those as being highly unlikely, they'd be basically striking gold if that happens.

 

[Pancakes]

Not sure how we could afford to keep Schultz even if we wanted to. We have some big players to pay this upcoming off season like Murray, McCann, Kahun, Simon, and Pettersson.

Then there's Galchenyuk as well. I see no way to make these moves work without trading a Bjugstad, Rust, or a Hornqvist, and maybe not even then.

 

[Andy99]

Schultz will play well this year because it’s a contract year and that’s what he does, but if we re-sign him, people will be griping about his contract after that because his play drops in non contract years...

Still, you can’t judge him based solely on his own points...you have to judge him on how he helps Geno’s line generate points...if he can help G’s line again, as he has in the past, generate offense and put up points, he’s worth every penny of the $6 mil contract he’s likely to get, and the Pens should trade Guds...

 

[Empoleon8771]

I know it's early, but still:

We’ll see if the NHL and NHLPA agree to a different number as part of negotiations, but at last week’s Board of Governors meeting, the 2020-21 cap was estimated at $84.5 million, if the players do not use any escalator at all.

31 Thoughts: How Brayden Point's contract impacts the RFA market - Sportsnet.ca

This will significantly help the Penguins if this ends up happening. Recall though that the 2019-2020 cap was also projected to be a good bit higher than it actually ended up.

 

[EightyOne]

I was happy with Horny re-signing.

I'm buyers remorsing on it a bit now.

I think Schultz will be the same.

Let him tear it up this year and if they're in the hunt, just let him walk in summer. If not, get a pick at TDL and call up a kid to get a headstart on next year.

 

[Le Magnifique 66]

I was happy with Horny re-signing.

I'm buyers remorsing on it a bit now.

I think Schultz will be the same.

Let him tear it up this year and if they're in the hunt, just let him walk in summer. If not, get a pick at TDL and call up a kid to get a headstart on next year.

I'm all for moving Horny as much as I like the guy. I just don't see him keeping his play up for the next few years, especially the way he plays and the injuries he has had in the past couple of years, it will just get worse.
I would normally agree but this team going forward will need to start thinking a little more about it's future, I would hope Schultz is moved if not signing here

 

[EightyOne]

I just don't want JR to tie up $5mil on another over the hill-er.

I mean, I GUESS they could straight up trade him even if doing well in standings.

I just..man..if Pens make playoffs they'll likely need bodies...

 

[JackFr]

I'm going to write off the 18/19 JS just due to his injury and missing most of the season. But I'd happily pay the 17/18 version of him 6.5m before going to Honka. There's a reason why Honka after 3 pro seasons on a team with questionable D has only once played more than 30 games (42) and who after 3 seasons (the last 2 in the NHL) has been a scratch more often then not. And if you do re-sign Schultz (or someone else) I think Guds is gone.

About the only way you can get away with not paying Schultz or paying to replace him with a quality replacement, is if Guds and MP continue to play like they did last season. Then MP is the new Schultz as a LD and Guds is just the new Cole on RD.

I was using Honka as an example of a cheap replacement, but if we're trusting GP as a measure of how good a defenceman is then Jack Johnson was perfectly fine last season. I would be much more interested in trying to find a new Pettersson than ending up with an albatross contract for a defenceman who has been straight up bad the past 2 seasons.

You're just assuming that Schultz has been a top 4 calibre defenceman the past two seasons (which is false) and that he will continue to be so once extended (which is very dubious) and therefore it's inconceivable that we could replace him. We have been playing without a quality 2nd pairing RD for the past two seasons, this is not a hypothetical.

Our options are to either double down on his mediocrity in the hopes that he reverts back to his anomaly career season or get creative and find an undervalued guy like Pettersson to fill that role. One option puts us in a really tough spot from a cap perspective and one gives us flexibility.

 

[Speaking Moistly]

Not sure how we could afford to keep Schultz even if we wanted to. We have some big players to pay this upcoming off season like Murray, McCann, Kahun, Simon, and Pettersson.

Then there's Galchenyuk as well. I see no way to make these moves work without trading a Bjugstad, Rust, or a Hornqvist, and maybe not even then.

You trade players. Bjugstad out, Gudbranson out, likely Rust out and maybe one of the RFAs gets traded instead of signed. Dear god, JJ out but I doubt it. Fill in the blanks with the remaining RFAs and WBS. No f***ing free agency overpays for JR. Maybe Hornqvist and Tanev slot up higher.

Guentzel-Crosby-X
Galchenyuk-Malkin-X
X-Blueger-Hornqvist
X-Lafferty-Tanev

Dumoulin-Letang
Pettersson-Schultz
X-Marino

Murray
Cheap back up

They’ve got almost 15M tied up in Johnson, Gudbranson, Bjugstad and Rust. Really, we just need to see how the season goes. With Schultz I think his health will play into it a lot.

 

[JackFr]

You trade players. Bjugstad out, Gudbranson out, likely Rust out and maybe one of the RFAs gets traded instead of signed. Dear god, JJ out but I doubt it. Fill in the blanks with the remaining RFAs and WBS. No ****ing free agency overpays for JR. Maybe Hornqvist and Tanev slot up higher.
.

Resigning Schultz would already be a free agency overpay though.