Randy Butternubs
Registered User
Please continue here. I'm not a mod, but I don't think the Karlsson-Hoffman talk deserves a spot in this thread, so I did not quote those posts.
I messed around with CapFriendly's Armchair GM with a cap of $84M for next season. I really just focused on the dollar amount and not the years, but here are the re-signings, signings, and trades:
- Bjugstad was traded for draft picks
- Murray at $6.333m for 6 years ($38m total, just so I'm clear)
- McCann at $4m for 4 years
- Pettersson at $3.75m for 4 years
- Kahun at $3m for 3 years
- Jarry at $3m for 3 years
- Simon at $1.5m for 2 years
- Riikola at $1m for 1 year
- Lafferty at $750k for 2 years
- Zach Bogosian at $2m for 1 year
- Jesper Fast at $3m for 4 years
- Casey DeSmith traded for draft picks or once again buried
That leaves a lineup as such, when/if healthy:
Guentzel-Crosby-Fast
Kahun-Malkin-Rust
Simon-McCann-Hornqvist
ZAR-Blueger-Tanev
Lafferty
Dumoulin-Letang
Pettersson-Marino
Johnson-Bogosian
Riikola-Ruhwedel
Murray-Jarry
With those moves and the cap at $84m, that gives the Pens just over $1m in cap space.
Bogosian signs a "prove it" deal which GMJR was seemingly quite fond of when in Carolina. And Jesper Fast seems like a player Sullivan would love. Could be another Dupuis for Crosby.
In three years the Pens will have Marino, Petts, Dumo as his age is still good to go. Add in a trade FA signing at the RD and you have 2 or 3 openings to fill. Addison and POJ have the pedigree to contend based on a natural progression physically and more experience. Plus someone will emerge as well from a group of current AHL youngins and D men in the system. But GMJR in all likelihood is gone so who knows who is held in higher regard. AT least Pens are addressing the pipeline while winning at the NHL level. Poulin, Legare, Bjorkqvist, Hallander, all are expected be here in three years as well. So Sid at 35 and Geno at 36 will either be limited or in Geno's case retired. Pens, as the studs age others have to emerge kinda like Boston or Tampa who have done a great job of keeping the franchise winning as stars age or retire.
I can’t believe you didn’t find a way to resign Galchenyuk...
No more fast grinders, the Penguins already have enough speed and defense. Now, if that "speed and defense" also comes with top-6 caliber offense, I'm definitely interested (Saad), but I'm super disinterested in acquiring another Dupuis/Tanev type of player. You're going to become a 1-dimensional team if you just keep adding the same kind of player over and over again.
I think you'll see Galchenyuk swapped for another pending UFA and Bjugstad and draft picks moved for a top-6 winger with term during the season, and a depth RD added in the off-season to push Riikola for the bottom pair spot. That's pretty much about all I expect, I don't expect a goalie trade to happen until the Penguins have to do something with their goalies. I would be surprised if the Penguins had something very different than:
Guentzel/trade-Crosby-Kahun
Trade/Guentzel-Malkin-Rust
Simon-McCann-Hornqvist
ZAR-Blueger-Tanev
Lafferty
Dumoulin-Letang
Pettersson-Marino
Johnson-Riikola/FA
FA/Riikola-Ruhwedel
Murray-Jarry
Jarry shows he can play 40+ games and be really good probably makes Murray expendable with the Seattle draft coming. GMJR can't make the mistake of not moving him and losing one of them for zip. Murray after teams didn't consider MAF probably know not to make that mistake as well. Contending teams know a two time cup winner is far more preferable to what they have now. Murray can bring back a good package as how many teams have a two time cup winning goalie who is 25 to trade? Pens have approx 25 million next year to extend Jarry, sign a RH D man, McCaan, Petts and various smaller deals as well. Not signing Murray to that deal frees up 6 million for a top 6 forward.
Disagree. Dumoulin - Pettersson - JJ - Riikola is perfectly fine depth down the left side. They want the top 3 there in the lineup, and playing on their dominant side, so it makes no sense to bring in a 4th guy.
Letang - Marino - Ruhwedel is a problem if we let Schultz walk. We need a reliable #5 RHS if Schultz goes. That can be a summer problem though if Schultz comes back and we keep him past the deadline. Ruh is and always was supposed to be the #7, eating nachos until he was needed but not expected to be an everyday player.
Why is that a mistake?
I'm so tired of people saying that it's losing Murray or Jarry for nothing or trading one of them. No, the comparison is losing Murray or Jarry for nothing or trading Murray or Jarry and losing one of Kahun, Hornqvist or Tanev for nothing. The return you'd have to get back for Jarry or Murray has to outweigh the cost of losing one of Hornqvist, Kahun or Tanev (probably Kahun if I had to guess). I would 100% rather lose an expendable goalie for nothing than trade that goalie for at most a late 1st and lose Kahun.
Do player bonuses count toward the cap?
Don't rush him. Just because Marino made the jump right away doesn't mean everyone can, and Marino had quite a bit more seasoning in college. We rushed Pouliot, Maatta while mentally ready got his body trashed in his first few years in the league, etc. Give him time.
POJ might be a possibility as a callup next year, but until he shows consistency in the A he can't be plan A. Plus hes a LHS.
Agreed. Addison, if he pans out, is our Letang replacement unit in 2-3 seasons from now. He shouldn't be counted on for a couple years though at least.
No ones rushing him. He’ll start in the AHL next season and when he’s ready he’s ready.
We didn’t rush Pouliot or Maatta either. Pouliot was just too lazy and Maatta got cancer (which was the biggest effect on his career).
I'm not sure how reliable Rutherford's trading history here is in this situation though as the sort of move we want him to make - high quality forward, not much outstanding roster players available to use - isn't the sort of move he's made very often here. And when he has, he's usually used a prospect.
Relax mon ami. Only a hockey prospect.
As the roster currently sits, this is likely the protected list:
F - Sid, Geno, Jake, Rust, McCann, F, F
D - Letang, Dumo, MP
G - Murray/Jarry
For the F spots, there are really only 4 possibles as I see it. Kahun, Tanev, Horny, Blueger. Likely those spots get filled with Kahun and Tanev. Exposing Horny and everyone else. Now, is the value of an aging, oft injured Horny more than what looks to be at least a 25-ish 1B starter? Doubtful. And who is more likely to get swiped by an expansion team? I'll give 3 guesses and the first 2 don't count.
I feel it does...But...like...the following year...
Edit: it's way more complicated, but don't really matter to cap. The actual caps on bonuses make them irrelevant
Primer: Understanding signing bonuses and performance bonuses in NHL contracts
Trade value on that goalie is about mid to late 1st. Can spike higher but is rare. You're pretty much in the same ballpark for a good 3C, plus the backup goalie going leaves less of a hole.
For a team with Cup aspirations these next 2-4 yrs, it's not good enough for me.
As you can see with just one Dumoulin injury, they are treading water.
You can say but look at the goals against!? This is good enough!
This is very good goaltending with a rookie being your best actual defending defender and a bunch of bottom pairing #7's trying their best to keep up.
I don't want to tread water. I want to win a Cup.
MP/JJ/Riiko are all bottom pairing D-Men and we Letang needs all the stability he can get and just having Dumo and hoping he 1) stays great and 2) stays healthy isn't the best gamble in my mind.
After saying that, i DO have some hope for POJ stealing someones job in the not so distant future.
Either JJ's or MP's.
I vote we DO rush Addison.
Addison-Letang
Johnson-Schultz
Pettersson-Riikola
POJ-Rudewedel
Marino for a 3rd. Double the return from what we paid.