Salary Cap: Pittsburgh Penguins Salary Cap Thread - JJ and Letang drama

[OswaldBates]

I'm willing to bet you won't be saying the same thing if/when Jarry comes crashing back down to earth and Murray returns to his career normal.

If my Aunt Had Balls, She would be my Uncle

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

The prospects that the Hawks got back for Lehner were basically nothing prospects.



Just because fans are assuming that Murray is going to want a fortune to extend doesn't make that true.



No he's not.

I get that you think Jarry's a flash in the pan, and that's a worrying risk to take moving forward, but Murray's flash expired a long time ago, and Stalock's not good. Jarry's the clearly better goalie of the three currently.

Geno and Jarry's seasons are pretty much the only reason we were in playoff position at all this year. Jarry was top-10 in GAA, sv%, and shutouts, and I think Geno had a season where he was top-5 in points per game without a real LW for much of the year and battling through injury.

 

[Peat]

If it was earlier in the season, I understand it and am confused more:

1. If it was before his breakout, maybe Guerin was only valuing Jarry like a throw-in? JR waiting was a good thing, because Jarry is more valuable now than he was then.
2. But why was JR worrying about keeping Jarry during the off-season when there weren't concerns with Murray? You had Murray-DeSmith during the off-season, and scoffing at including Jarry for Zucker just seems weird.

I'm now mildly confused as I thought Russo meant the Kessel for Zucker thing by original Zucker deal, but obviously he couldn't have. But what original Zucker deal earlier in the season between Guerin and Rutherford

In any case - I don't feel entirely comfortable saying what Rutherford should or should not have done without knowing the exact date or deal.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I get that you think Jarry's a flash in the pan, and that's a worrying risk to take moving forward, but Murray's flash expired a long time ago, and Stalock's not good. Jarry's the clearly better goalie of the three currently.

Geno and Jarry's seasons are pretty much the only reason we were in playoff position at all this year. Jarry was top-10 in GAA, sv%, and shutouts, and I think Geno had a season where he was top-5 in points per game without a real LW for much of the year and battling through injury.

Stalock is only a mediocre backup, so I'm not even including him in the discussion. To me, Jarry had the best season, but that doesn't make him the "clearly better goalie" right now. Just like DeSmith wasn't the "clearly better goalie" than Murray when DeSmith started out super hot last year and then came crashing down to earth.

They're roughly equal goalies because their career numbers have them as roughly equal goalies. I'm not going to overemphasize 1 year and ignore every other year when evaluating these two. Realistically, they should trade which goalie has a higher trade value and pick their starting goalie based on that. This deal would have been a great return for Jarry if my assumption about the return (get out of JJ's contract and not have to include Addison in the deal) is right.

 

[Turin]

I'm willing to bet you won't be saying the same thing if/when Jarry comes crashing back down to earth and Murray returns to his career normal.

Jarry could crash and burn but he will be cheap. Murray has 1 good year in the last 3 and likely won’t be, and he has serious injury concerns.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Jarry could crash and burn but he will be cheap. Murray has 1 good year in the last 3 and likely won’t be, and he has serious injury concerns.

I think this is a super flawed assumption that people keep making. He'll be "cheap" on a short term deal. The downside is that he proves that last year was a flash in the pan and you're without a starting goalie, which closes Crosby and Malkin's window, or you just have to pay him fair price in 2 years. Is it possible Murray sucks too, at a more expensive contract with longer term? Yeah, but I'm a lot more confident in him not doing that than I am with Jarry.

Again, I'm picking which goalie to keep based solely on the trade return they're going to get. Both goalies have their pros and cons to keep, so make it solely returns based. That return for Jarry would have kicked ass.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

I'm willing to bet you won't be saying the same thing if/when Jarry comes crashing back down to earth and Murray returns to his career normal.

I bet you I won't say it because Jarry will struggle like most goalies, but with his work ethic and the way he approaches his game, he will bounce back.

So again, f*** murray.

Jarry did struggle this year, what happened? He came back to the scrimmages back to his old self, playing damn well, then in the tune-up game vs the Flyers and the lone game vs the Habs.

Murray? f***ING SHITTERED the bed hard, like he tends to do the last 3yrs.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Stalock is only a mediocre backup, so I'm not even including him in the discussion. To me, Jarry had the best season, but that doesn't make him the "clearly better goalie" right now. Just like DeSmith wasn't the "clearly better goalie" than Murray when DeSmith started out super hot last year and then came crashing down to earth.

They're roughly equal goalies because their career numbers have them as roughly equal goalies. I'm not going to overemphasize 1 year and ignore every other year when evaluating these two.

I get what you're saying, but Jarry "coming back to Earth" is what Murray currently is with the added ability to play the puck. You don't have to ignore every other year, but you have to acknowledge that Murray hasn't been right for a while and there's no indication that he's going to magically bounce back to the form he showed in the back to back Cups.

Jarry's also probably the cheaper of the two this off-season by quite a bit, considering Murray's leverage regarding his resume.

I want to jettison JJ into the sun, but dumping him at the cost of losing Jarry and running with a Murray (at probably $6 million+) and Stalock as our goalies doesn't really move the needle any closer to this team contending, imo.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

I get what you're saying, but Jarry "coming back to Earth" is what Murray currently is with the added ability to play the puck. You don't have to ignore every other year, but you have to acknowledge that Murray hasn't been right for a while and there's no indication that he's going to magically bounce back to the form he showed in the back to back Cups.

Jarry's also probably the cheaper of the two this off-season by quite a bit, considering Murray's leverage regarding his resume.

I want to jettison JJ into the sun, but dumping him at the cost of losing Jarry and running with a Murray (at probably $6 million+) and Stalock as our goalies doesn't really move the needle any closer to this team contending, imo.

Listen I hate JJ as much as well, literally everyone.

But JJ-Marino works, we hate it, but it works. Which means, to me anyway, if Maniscalco makes it - Pettersson-Maniscalco could be fun.

In any case, JR, to me, is doing some massive PR work for JJ talking him up to maybe raise some value, because JJ was fine for most of this season and he can at least not lie about that, except Marino did a ton of heavy lifting there. JJ can and will get moved.

So if anyone thinks Jarry is who you sacrifice for that is the right move? Jesus christ, they're so off base.

 

[Peat]

Just because fans are assuming that Murray is going to want a fortune to extend doesn't make that true.

JR could have made an absolutely awesome deal for Zucker if that was the case. The Penguins very well could still have Addison or their 1st if they would have done Jarry for Zucker. I would easily take that and Murray being the starter, because I'd easily trade Jarry this off-season for a 1st if the opportunity came up.

Given how much you bring up Andersen's 1st and 2nd as the price for a goalie, Jarry for a 1st seems a little cheap.

In any case, I don't think we've got enough info to know what really went down, and I'd add that given Rutherford's declared intent to prioritise a Murray deal last summer went south and the many talks of big wage demands from Murray, we're at least at educated guess for Murray wanting a fortune.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I get what you're saying, but Jarry "coming back to Earth" is what Murray currently is with the added ability to play the puck. You don't have to ignore every other year, but you have to acknowledge that Murray hasn't been right for a while and there's no indication that he's going to magically bounce back to the form he showed in the back to back Cups.

Jarry's also probably the cheaper of the two this off-season by quite a bit, considering Murray's leverage regarding his resume.

I want to jettison JJ into the sun, but dumping him at the cost of losing Jarry and running with a Murray (at probably $6 million+) and Stalock as our goalies doesn't really move the needle any closer to this team contending, imo.

Jarry coming back down to earth was what he was in 2017-2018, which was around a .910 save% goalie. That's fine, it's perfectly average, but that's worse than what Murray's normal level is.

I think a lot of people have just super flawed views of Murray. Murray's 2018-2019 season was better than literally every single season Fleury ever had in Pittsburgh, based on GSAA. You don't have to go back to the cup years to find him playing at a great level, he did that last season. In his NHL career, he's had 3 great years (well, 2 great years and 1 great small sample size), 1 mediocre year and 1 terrible year. I think people way overstate any sort of decline or problems he has had, he was bad for 1 year (or more accurately, bad for 11 games of a shortened season).

 

[Dangles78]

I think this is a super flawed assumption that people keep making. He'll be "cheap" on a short term deal. The downside is that he proves that last year was a flash in the pan and you're without a starting goalie, which closes Crosby and Malkin's window, or you just have to pay him fair price in 2 years. Is it possible Murray sucks too, at a more expensive contract with longer term? Yeah, but I'm a lot more confident in him not doing that than I am with Jarry.

Again, I'm picking which goalie to keep based solely on the trade return they're going to get. Both goalies have their pros and cons to keep, so make it solely returns based. That return for Jarry would have kicked ass.

Why? It just seems like you want Jarry to "come back down to Earth" so you can be more angry at JR for not doing that rumored deal. Just watch the tape; Murray hasn't been the same for a couple of years now. His glove hand is still piss poor, his strength and angles in the crease are poor, his compete level is questionable, he's not challenging shooters. He basically doesn't look anything like the Cup Murray.

Jarry possesses a lot of quality NHL goalie attributes. He has good athleticism/lateral movement, strong technique, puck playing ability, durable. The only question with him was his consistency as a pro which Sully has even said has gotten better. He's the better goalie now and going forward.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I still think we'll be able to dump JJ with McCann or a 2nd or something to a team like Detroit or LA who are nowhere near competing and would be happy to take on bad contracts in exchange for extra futures.

Doesn't have to be, and shouldn't be, our current and future starting goalie.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Why? It just seems like you want Jarry to "come back down to Earth" so you can be more angry at JR for not doing that rumored deal. Just watch the tape; Murray hasn't been the same for a couple of years now. His glove hand is still piss poor, his strength and angles in the crease are poor, his compete level is questionable, he's not challenging shooters. He basically doesn't look anything like the Cup Murray.

Jarry possesses a lot of quality NHL goalie attributes. He has good athleticism/lateral movement, strong technique, puck playing ability, durable. The only question with him was his consistency as a pro which Sully has even said has gotten better. He's the better goalie now and going forward.

Again, Murray's 2018-2019 was literally better than ANY season Fleury had in Pittsburgh. If you think Murray hasn't "been the same" for a couple of years, you're holding him to absurd standards. He was an elite goalie for a 40 game stretch in 2018-2019.

I'm more confident in Murray being a good goalie than I am with Jarry because Jarry has been a good goalie for about a 30 game stretch in the NHL, while Murray's resume is 200 regular season games and 50 playoff games.

 

[Turin]

I think this is a super flawed assumption that people keep making. He'll be "cheap" on a short term deal. The downside is that he proves that last year was a flash in the pan and you're without a starting goalie, which closes Crosby and Malkin's window, or you just have to pay him fair price in 2 years. Is it possible Murray sucks too, at a more expensive contract with longer term? Yeah, but I'm a lot more confident in him not doing that than I am with Jarry.

Again, I'm picking which goalie to keep based solely on the trade return they're going to get. Both goalies have their pros and cons to keep, so make it solely returns based. That return for Jarry would have kicked ass.

So certain essential criteria you have to be mad at this trade are unprovable.

1. That Jarry sucks moving forward, when Murray has sucked two out of his last 3 seasons. We have no way of knowing, but the team knows exactly what a Murray wants to be paid and even more important, the full extent of his injury issues.

2. That this is definitely the best JR could do with the goalie market. We don’t know that.

There was no going into this season without 2 good goalies, and giving up one at the deadline means having to spend the assets you wanted to save on getting one that is turning UFA, significantly older and you probably can’t fit into a goalie budget.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Jarry coming back down to earth was what he was in 2017-2018, which was around a .910 save% goalie. That's fine, it's perfectly average, but that's worse than what Murray's normal level is.

I think a lot of people have just super flawed views of Murray. Murray's 2018-2019 season was better than literally every single season Fleury ever had in Pittsburgh, based on GSAA. You don't have to go back to the cup years to find him playing at a great level, he did that last season. In his NHL career, he's had 3 great years (well, 2 great years and 1 great small sample size), 1 mediocre year and 1 terrible year. I think people way overstate any sort of decline or problems he has had, he was bad for 1 year (or more accurately, bad for 11 games of a shortened season).

Why is Jarry's ~25 game season of mediocre play his norm, versus his ~35 game season of great play? Couldn't he realistically be closer to either end, and thus this Jarry may be closer to the real Jarry, just playing at a little bit higher of a level?

It seems like you're personally not very high on the guy as a goalie, which is fine, but I don't think you can't point to a ~25 game season as the true standard while dismissing a ~35 game season (behind a worse blueline) as uncharacteristic or anomalous.

 

[Empoleon8771]

So certain essential criteria you have to be mad at this trade are unprovable.

1. That Jarry sucks moving forward, when Murray has sucked two out of his last 3 seasons. We have no way of knowing, but the team knows exactly what a Murray wants to be paid and even more important, the full extent of his injury issues.

2. That this is definitely the best JR could do with the goalie market. We don’t know that.

There was no going into this season without 2 good goalies, and giving up one at the deadline means having to spend the assets you wanted to save on getting one that is turning UFA, significantly older and you probably can’t fit into a goalie budget.

How Jarry or Murray looks going forward is irrelevant to this evaluation. I'm talking purely about getting value for the goalies. The decision on which goalie to keep should be made on which you can get a better return for. JR f*cked up by missing out on an opportunity to get a great return for Jarry in this deal.

Given how much you bring up Andersen's 1st and 2nd as the price for a goalie, Jarry for a 1st seems a little cheap.

In any case, I don't think we've got enough info to know what really went down, and I'd add that given Rutherford's declared intent to prioritise a Murray deal last summer went south and the many talks of big wage demands from Murray, we're at least at educated guess for Murray wanting a fortune.

They're also out of JJ's contract, which has significant value in my eyes.

Why is Jarry's ~25 game season of mediocre play his norm, versus his ~35 game season of great play? Couldn't he realistically be closer to either end, and thus this Jarry may be closer to the real Jarry, just playing at a little bit higher of a level?

It seems like you're personally not very high on the guy as a goalie, which is fine, but I don't think you can't point to a ~25 game season as the true standard while dismissing a ~35 game season (behind a worse blueline) as uncharacteristic or anomalous.

Jarry's ~25 games of mediocre play is more in line with his AHL and WHL numbers than his ~35 games of great play this year.

To me, Jarry seems extremely similar to Binnington. Average starter capable of going on long runs of elite play, but probably won't sustain that elite level. The big thing that tells me Murray's level of elite is more sustainable than Jarry's level of elite is that Murray has done it much more in the pros (both AHL and NHL) than Jarry has.

 

[Turin]

Fine, be mad. Everybody else sees JR’s logic in not pulling that trigger.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I think we're all in agreement that this JJ signing has been just about as awful as the entire hockey world expected it would be, when it all boils down to it. Thanks a lot, old man.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Fine, be mad. Everybody else sees JR’s logic in not pulling that trigger.

This website is also the same website that was prepared to throw Murray aside for DeSmith last season, so I'm not going to feel bad about going against the grain of opinions with goaltending on here

Everyone else has already decided that Murray can pound sand and take the first flight out of Pittsburgh, and a lot of people are putting crazy high expectations on Jarry as the next one.

 

[Peat]

2. That this is definitely the best JR could do with the goalie market. We don’t know that.

Tbf, if Rutherford does better than borderline 1st line winger while getting rid of one of the NHL's worst contracts, then he has probably set a new record for his best trade.

Which is part of why I'm a bit suspicious of this.

They're also out of JJ's contract, which has significant value in my eyes.

You said you'd Jarry for a 1st this summer easily, not 1st + JJ dump.

 

[Empoleon8771]

You said you'd Jarry for a 1st this summer easily, not 1st + JJ dump.

My mistake, I misunderstood you there. My assumption about this trade is that we would have gotten out of JJ's contract and kept either Addison or the 1st in the Zucker deal. I would be ecstatic if they could pull that off this off-season with Jarry.

 

[Peat]

My mistake, I misunderstood you there. My assumption about this trade is that we would have gotten out of JJ's contract and kept either Addison or the 1st in the Zucker deal. I would be ecstatic if they could pull that off this off-season with Jarry.

The 1st, or dumping JJ?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Speaking of that article, I think there are 2 ways you can also interpret that news from Russo:

1. It may not be as difficult to dump JJ as we once thought. If it happened before Jarry broke out, that would suggest that it would be really cheap to dump Johnson, seeing how the Penguins only needed to give up a NHL ready goalie prospect to swap JJ's contract for Stalock's contract.
2. If 1 is false, then Jarry (and Murray, for that matter) have substantially more value than a lot of people on here are expecting

I think it's probably somewhere in the middle of these two, maybe a little bit more towards 1. I think the goalie market value is pretty well established, so I have trouble seeing how Jarry or Murray has more value than say Lehner in 2015. But I can easily see Johnson having less negative value than a lot of people here think, to the point of being able to do an unproven goalie prospect and Johnson for a decent backup signed for cheap.

The 1st, or dumping JJ?

Both

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I wonder if the Addison stuff is more due to the fact that he was a relatively good prospect in an organizational prospect pool that's pretty awful in terms of how they stack up around the league.

I'm entirely comfortable having not made that reported Wild deal, and instead dealing a cap dump (Galchenyuk) + 1st + Addison for Zucker. I'd have loved if the Kessel + JJ for Zucker + Rask deal went through, because I think a terrible 4th liner in Rask is easier to bury/insulate than a guy like JJ is (especially on a team that seems to value JJ highly, and uses him entirely too often and in important situations). I expect JJ to be on the team next season, just because it doesn't seem to me that the coach or GM view him the same way people do in reality.

We can use Murray to move up in the draft, or land a couple futures (something like a prospect + 2nd), or as a vehicle to get JJ off this team. I think Murray's broken, and the only way to really fix him current career trajectory is to give him a fresh start elsewhere. Jarry's the cheaper goalie, he can play the puck a decent amount, and as of writing this, is the better goalie. Realistically, they're probably pretty close to equal, but for the other reasons I value Jarry higher than Murray.