Salary Cap: Pittsburgh Penguins Salary Cap Thread - If the dog days had dog days

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Shady Machine

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Aug 6, 2010
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But the Pens *don't* have to make a move. That's the hold up imo. Rutherford will wait it out, but if he can't get a cap freeing move he likes, then he'll sign Pettersson to a 1 year bridge that doesn't take us over the cap and take his roster and go home. I feel reasonably confident that's what's going on.

That assumes Pettersson is willing to do that. I know we haven't been given any indication he will hold out, but isn't it possible he doesn't want to take a 1 year deal under his market value? The MOST they can realistically offer him without burying JJ (not gonna happen) is $1,392,500 and that includes moving down Riikola and one of Trotman/Ruh. That puts pens RIGHT up to the cap, so likely something closer to $1MM flat. I'm not the greedy type, but I wouldn't sign that without some serious guarantees for the next contract.
 

Shady Machine

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If I'm a player, no chance in hell I do a "hand shake" agreement. Career is on the line every night. No way.

Agreed. That's how I would approach it too. What if he blows out his knee this year or has a major concussion? I get bridge deals for sure, but why should I sign a 1 year low money deal to accommodate a GM that can't/won't dump Johnson for whatever and just blew cap space on 6 years of Tanev?
 
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Empoleon8771

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I'm still trying to connect all of the dots for what the Penguins lines will be. So far, we know:

-McCann is practicing as if he's going to be playing wing going forward, this likely means Bjugstad is staying
-I also think I've read that the Penguins view McCann as a top-6 caliber player right now.
-Pettersson is going to battle it out for the 2nd pair LD spot, which basically means he'll be on the 2nd pair
-Galchenyuk is going to be on Malkin's line
-I can't remember who was saying it on the radio, but I vaguely recall someone on 93.7 saying he expects Rust back next year on a line with Crosby. I don't know how that's possible with the cap, though.

Am I missing any others? There's some conflicting things here, I'm honestly not sure what to expect. My bet right now is:

McCann-Crosby-Guentzel
Galchenyuk-Malkin-Hornqvist
Simon-Bjugstad-Kahun
Tanev-Blueger-ZAR

Dumoulin-Letang
Pettersson-Schultz
Johnson-Gudbranson
 

CheckingLineCenter

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Sheary would have done it in 16-17.

Yeah isnt that kinda proof the stars are gonna need to align though? I mean I hope he does, but I’d sell on the idea Chucky is gonna score at a 63 pt ES pace like Sheary did that year. Or even a 50 ES pace (which is about what he’d need to hit 60 total points).

Either way, if I was coach I’d have him penciled in on the PP1 at this juncture. I think he could be really, really good on the man advantage surrounded by Crosby, Malkin, Letang, etc.
 

Peat

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That assumes Pettersson is willing to do that. I know we haven't been given any indication he will hold out, but isn't it possible he doesn't want to take a 1 year deal under his market value? The MOST they can realistically offer him without burying JJ (not gonna happen) is $1,392,500 and that includes moving down Riikola and one of Trotman/Ruh. That puts pens RIGHT up to the cap, so likely something closer to $1MM flat. I'm not the greedy type, but I wouldn't sign that without some serious guarantees for the next contract.

As long as both sides are making it sound like Pettersson getting signed is basically just a formality getting held up by a few other issues, and as long as Rutherford is being bullish that he doesn't have to move anyone for poor value and that he can compete his roster without moving major cap, then I see no obvious reason to believe that Pettersson is unwilling to take a 1m bridge. Maybe Rutherford's bluffing but I haven't seen him caught in one here yet.

Even if Rutherford hasn't and/or won't say a word about what his next contract will look like after said bridge, waiting to sign one's first big contract until you have a) Arbitration rights b) the evidence of multiple seasons isn't a bad gamble anyway. He's in trouble if he gets injured or loses form, but if he keeps playing like he has he gets more money.
 

CheckingLineCenter

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If I'm a player, no chance in hell I do a "hand shake" agreement. Career is on the line every night. No way.

Agreed. That's how I would approach it too. What if he blows out his knee this year or has a major concussion? I get bridge deals for sure, but why should I sign a 1 year low money deal to accommodate a GM that can't/won't dump Johnson for whatever and just blew cap space on 6 years of Tanev?

I mean if there’s nothing else offered, his only other choice is to sit out. Doubt anyone would offer sheet him. Maybe go to Europe but he could get hurt there too and it’s less money. What is he really going to do? Not play hockey and make no money for a year? It stinks but at least he can try to have a big season and cash in for even more down the line.

Injury wise I’m positive he takes out insurance if he were to operate on a 1 year deal.

So I agree with the general point you guys make about long term security, but I understand taking a handshake deal for certain guys. Petts being one. A Marner, Rantanen or Boeser level RFA definitely shouldn’t though.
 
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Empoleon8771

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Yeah isnt that kinda proof the stars are gonna need to align though? I mean I hope he does, but I’d sell on the idea Chucky is gonna score at a 63 pt ES pace like Sheary did that year. Or even a 50 ES pace (which is about what he’d need to hit 60 total points).

Either way, if I was coach I’d have him penciled in on the PP1 at this juncture. I think he could be really, really good on the man advantage surrounded by Crosby, Malkin, Letang, etc.

I think Galchenyuk is probably going to get more powerplay points next year than Guentzel did last year, and Guentzel had 11 powerplay points. I think you'll probably see Crosby, Malkin, Hornqvist and Guentzel injured more next year than they were last year, plus I think Galchenyuk will get bumped to the first unit very quickly if the PP is struggling.

My expectations for Galchenyuk are about 25 goals and 55 points, with 40 ES points and 15 PP points.
 

Peat

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Yeah isnt that kinda proof the stars are gonna need to align though? I mean I hope he does, but I’d sell on the idea Chucky is gonna score at a 63 pt ES pace like Sheary did that year. Or even a 50 ES pace (which is about what he’d need to hit 60 total points).

Either way, if I was coach I’d have him penciled in on the PP1 at this juncture. I think he could be really, really good on the man advantage surrounded by Crosby, Malkin, Letang, etc.

Chucky hitting a 50 ES pace is more dependent on Geno than himself. If Malkin comes out there with a point to prove and Chucky can keep up, I think that's pretty doable if scoring stays up. Bonus points if we get typical contract season Schultz.

I agree with you in general though. Not being on PP1 makes 60 quite unlikely.

I'm still trying to connect all of the dots for what the Penguins lines will be. So far, we know:

-McCann is practicing as if he's going to be playing wing going forward, this likely means Bjugstad is staying
-I also think I've read that the Penguins view McCann as a top-6 caliber player right now.
-Pettersson is going to battle it out for the 2nd pair LD spot, which basically means he'll be on the 2nd pair
-Galchenyuk is going to be on Malkin's line
-I can't remember who was saying it on the radio, but I vaguely recall someone on 93.7 saying he expects Rust back next year on a line with Crosby. I don't know how that's possible with the cap, though.

Am I missing any others? There's some conflicting things here, I'm honestly not sure what to expect. My bet right now is:

McCann-Crosby-Guentzel
Galchenyuk-Malkin-Hornqvist
Simon-Bjugstad-Kahun
Tanev-Blueger-ZAR

Dumoulin-Letang
Pettersson-Schultz
Johnson-Gudbranson

I'd put my money on Hornqvist continuing to be with Bjugstad.
 
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Gurglesons

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Dec 18, 2009
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Yeah isnt that kinda proof the stars are gonna need to align though? I mean I hope he does, but I’d sell on the idea Chucky is gonna score at a 63 pt ES pace like Sheary did that year. Or even a 50 ES pace (which is about what he’d need to hit 60 total points).

Either way, if I was coach I’d have him penciled in on the PP1 at this juncture. I think he could be really, really good on the man advantage surrounded by Crosby, Malkin, Letang, etc.

It is. But at the same time Galchenyuk is probably the most physically gifted winger we’ve had at that age in the Sid / Malkin era.
 
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CheckingLineCenter

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I think Galchenyuk is probably going to get more powerplay points next year than Guentzel did last year, and Guentzel had 11 powerplay points. I think you'll probably see Crosby, Malkin, Hornqvist and Guentzel injured more next year than they were last year, plus I think Galchenyuk will get bumped to the first unit very quickly if the PP is struggling.

My expectations for Galchenyuk are about 25 goals and 55 points, with 40 ES points and 15 PP points.

I think that makes sense. We’ll see.

My only semi-realistic hope for Chucky is 25-30ish or more goals. IMO the big thing is for him to be a good fit next to Geno and the 2nd line gets back on track (that may be more up to Malkin).

I don’t really have any expectations though. I just could see it going any possible way. But I don’t think it’s a bad return or gamble by the FO for Kessel at all.
 

CheckingLineCenter

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It is. But at the same time Galchenyuk is probably the most physically gifted winger we’ve had at that age in the Sid / Malkin era.

100 percent. That’s a big part of why I actually liked the trade despite not firmly being in the “move Kessel” camp.
 

Peat

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I wouldn't comfortably take that bet. How much of Hornqvist playing with Bjugstad was because of the coaches liking that duo vs Malkin and Kessel having to play together?

Probably a bit of both, but I think that now that they've got it they're reluctant to disturb it - at least to start with.
 

Gurglesons

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last-train-tocool.blogspot.com
100 percent. That’s a big part of why I actually liked the trade despite not firmly being in the “move Kessel” camp.

I think Kessel’s relationship here with both the coach and specifically the GM was burned and time here was always going to be temporary. Moving him while we could still get some value was the smart move and it gives us a player who can prove if he is a fit or not here and if not we got a decent prospect and took no cap or term back.
 
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Empoleon8771

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If you sign a 1 year deal, you have to wait until January 1st to extend. If you sign a multi-year bridge deal, you can just sign when you have 1 year left.

Probably a bit of both, but I think that now that they've got it they're reluctant to disturb it - at least to start with.

I think we disagree on how effective that line was overall. It was excellent analytically, but the line had a lot of problems with producing. I'm not sold it's set in stone that it won't change.
 

Shady Machine

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Aug 6, 2010
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I mean if there’s nothing else offered, his only other choice is to sit out. Doubt anyone would offer sheet him. Maybe go to Europe but he could get hurt there too and it’s less money. What is he really going to do? Not play hockey and make no money for a year? It stinks but at least he can try to have a big season and cash in for even more down the line.

Injury wise I’m positive he takes out insurance if he were to operate on a 1 year deal.

So I agree with the general point you guys make about long term security, but I understand taking a handshake deal for certain guys. Petts being one. A Marner, Rantanen or Boeser level RFA definitely shouldn’t though.

I actually think his agent could be playing nice in the media as a negotiating tactic. If you are the agent's for the Marner's of the world, you can be combative in the media because your player's profile is so high.

Pettersson may be better served by an agent that is playing super positive and then when things get down to the wire, you can play the "team didn't move the cap space needed to get the player signed" and then it makes the team look bad. Not saying this is happening, but doing it this way puts the onus on the team to make a move and then you play your hand when they don't.

Pettersson may not have a ton of leverage, but the Pens need him this year if they are going to try to contend, so if I were him/agent, I would play that for all it's worth.
 

Shady Machine

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Aug 6, 2010
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I think we disagree on how effective that line was overall. It was excellent analytically, but the line had a lot of problems with producing. I'm not sold it's set in stone that it won't change.

Hornqvist couldn't score with anyone last half of the year, but then seemed to have a bounce back in the Worlds. I'd like to see that line again out of the gate to see how it if they were just unlucky/snake bitten vs it being a line that just can't produce.
 

PensandCaps

Beddy Tlueger
May 22, 2015
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I'm still trying to connect all of the dots for what the Penguins lines will be. So far, we know:

-McCann is practicing as if he's going to be playing wing going forward, this likely means Bjugstad is staying
-I also think I've read that the Penguins view McCann as a top-6 caliber player right now.
-Pettersson is going to battle it out for the 2nd pair LD spot, which basically means he'll be on the 2nd pair
-Galchenyuk is going to be on Malkin's line
-I can't remember who was saying it on the radio, but I vaguely recall someone on 93.7 saying he expects Rust back next year on a line with Crosby. I don't know how that's possible with the cap, though.

Am I missing any others? There's some conflicting things here, I'm honestly not sure what to expect. My bet right now is:

McCann-Crosby-Guentzel
Galchenyuk-Malkin-Hornqvist
Simon-Bjugstad-Kahun
Tanev-Blueger-ZAR

Dumoulin-Letang
Pettersson-Schultz
Johnson-Gudbranson

that third line stinks
 

Peat

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Jun 14, 2016
29,292
25,206
I think we disagree on how effective that line was overall. It was excellent analytically, but the line had a lot of problems with producing. I'm not sold it's set in stone that it won't change.

I'm not a 100% sold on it myself - although I liked a lot of what I saw, think there's reason for optimism on production, and I'm okay with a line struggling to produce when it concedes next to zero goals - but I think they're fairly sold on it. The journos seem to think they like it, it solves awkward questions like "Do our Cs really like to play with Hornqvist", it gives them a third line they can use for match ups, and there is potential there for it to be ridiculously good for a 3rd line. It seems like an obvious place to start.
 
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