Salary Cap: Pittsburgh Penguins Salary Cap Thread: Clever Thread Title Needed

[Scandale du Jour]

Last few posts:

Perron for Hagelin, Hagelin for Pearson, Pearson for Gudbranson, Pettersson for Sprong, and then Horny for Matheson...

I mean, like, what? How big does the hockey trade have to before it's a "hockey trade"? Anderson for Domi? Laine for PLD? Weber for Subban?

The "bigger" they are, the less frequent they are.



Honest question, if Rust plays to a level that justifies a big pay day...why would we let him go to sign on of these guys who may very well get big pay days themselves (in UFA relative to what they bring as it always the case with UFA signings).

I think if you are wanting to jettison Rust, you are getting a premium asset back and possibly a pick and you are doing so because someone like Poulin has made him tradable...and we are no longer in contention in which case I doubt they throw money at any of the guys listed.

The Rust out, Hyman in...it just makes zero sense to me. Now, Zucker out, Hyman in, sure I can see that. Rust? No. I am just not following the logic on this one (mainly because I don't think it exists).



It's okay for me to talk about my mama...its not okay for you to talk about my mama. Make sense?

Palmieri never spent a 110 game stretch where he spent 780 minutes with Jake and Sid/Geno and only 120 minutes with none of them. I don't think Hornqvist came close to that either. There's a very short list of guys in the NHL who've had better RW situations at 5v5, and obviously there's a ton of PP talent too.

And yet despite the quality of the situation remaining pretty much in place - more PP time if anything - his 5v5 p/60 is down by about 1 and his PP p/60 is down by about 2. Which is actually a pretty similar trend down to Palmieri.



I dunno that it's totally off the cards. We've heard Hextall was talking to teams about ways to get back in the 1st at the deadline. That's a pretty limited number of guys on the team who can do it. I doubt it's happening but if Hextall's going to rebuild the prospect pipeline quick like he and the media have talked about a bunch, something surprising's gonna have to happen.

Also re Rust and Dumo - Rust's got two peers on the team already with McCann and Kapanen, plays in a position that's flush in free agency, and has a number of guys on the roster/in the prospect pipeline who can plausibly fill in for him. Dumo's got no peers, POJ's not projected to be that good, and there's not really anybody in free agency that matches what he does. Not to mention Rust is one year closer to free agency, and his numbers demand more of a pay rise. Rust may or may not be a great idea, but it's plausible. Dumo's a non-starter unless I'm missing something.

I really like McCann and I think Kap's a gem. They're not Rust's peers yet, but I'm hopeful they will be as soon as next season.

Again, I'm not wholly against moving Rust if the right stuff falls into place. Hell, I'm in favor of it. But this team absolutely will not move Rust, they'd let him walk before moving him, imo.

Well I've made my case. Prove me right, Rust! Prove me right!

One last thought. I think Rust scores so many types of goals. Corner shots, ugly deflections, backhands. I understand his unlikely acceleration from a middle six mid 20s guy but he really does have a knack for the net. He was a playoff hero then became a big regular season scorer. What if he can be both?

Right now, none of the top 6 Ws available this summer have the numbers to get as good a pay day as Rust in free agency. Unless Rust wants to offer a big discount (or waits until the '22 offseason to sign and has a really bad 21-22 season), a guy we sign this off-season is almost certainly cheaper than Rust from '22 onwards.

Which is not the main reason you do it.

It's about there being three roads on what to do with Rust. One is to lose him for nothing in '22. One is to reup him at a cost that may not match his future contributions. The last is to trade him for assets. If the latter is the plan, it has to be this summer. It can't be summer '22 because he's a free agent. I guess you could sign him this offseason and trade him before his new deal kicks in, but he's going to be a far less attractive asset on that sort of money. And this summer, Poulin isn't ready. It's either make do or mend from within the roster - promote Carter maybe - or sign a free agent.

The fact that the free agent signed this off-season has a good chance of being an equal or better contributor for their cap hit from '22 onwards does factor in from this point as we're talking about whether the team can afford to lose Rust from a contention standpoint. Nobody likes the idea of trading him for assets if it hurts us as a contender but if we can get a reasonably priced UFA it changes a lot.

But basically it comes down to which of the three options is the most appealing. I think there's good reason to think losing him for nothing and fat UFA contracts are both unappealing options. Trade and replace mightn't be fantastic either, but if the other two options aren't great it should be an option on the menu - with the quality and cost of potential UFA replacements being a big part of whether to go there.

We can get even more for him in a trade after we win the cup this year

Bill Torrey the best GM in hockey history IMO always said you needed to turnover 20% of the roster to be a repeat champ.

Is Rust going to have the desire left?

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[Dipsy Doodle]

I still haven't heard a good argument for why Palms would sign a bargain contract with term.

It's one thing to replace Rust with a good UFA on a sweet deal, it's something else to replace him with a UFA making similar money.

 

[HandshakeLine]

If you replace Rust, you go younger, not older/the same age IMO.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

If you're gonna trade Rust to sign Palms I'd rather keep & pay Rust, even if he's 3-4M more expensive.

 

[Peat]

I still haven't heard a good argument for why Palms would sign a bargain contract with term.

It's one thing to replace Rust with a good UFA on a sweet deal, it's something else to replace him with a UFA making similar money.

Craig Smith prior to signing his 3 x 3.1m at 30/31 - .44 ppg that season, .53 ppg the preceding three seasons with a .64 ppg high mark in the third season

30 year old Palmieri - .44 ppg this season, .62 ppg the preceding three seasons with a .67 ppg high mark in the third season

The market probably shouldn't be giving Palmieri a huge amount more than Smith. Obviously there'll be a bit of inflation, but probably not mega inflation. Palmieri might get something similar to Toffoli at 4.25m, but Toffoli had his .64 ppg season directly before his new contract, not three seasons before, which is a considerable difference.

And those were the third and second biggest multi-year deals last year's free agency spat out for forwards. As I said there'll be a bit of inflation, but probably not that much. Palmieri is probably between those two numbers. Maybe he wants to take a one year back himself deal?

If you replace Rust, you go younger, not older/the same age IMO.

That can't really be done in free agency. You could trade Rust, then flip the assets to get a guy like Wood or Bertuzzi I guess, but I'm not sure their being younger is worth more than stockpiling assets to go big game hunting (unless there's a guy like that who could really, really take off with a change of scenery to here).

 

[HandshakeLine]

I am also a bit reluctant to proclaim Rust as a bona-fide clutch Claude Lemieux kind of player just yet-- he was absolutely clutch during the B2Bs, sure. But players like Brassard were also tagged "big game players" after a few series and then couldn't live up to the tag. If he comes out blazing as an instrumental member of this squad in the post-season, well, then we just hope we convince him to take a hometown discount. But if he doesn't... I'm not so sure we'd be necessarily worse off getting some fresh blood/hunger in there.

 

[HandshakeLine]

That can't really be done in free agency. You could trade Rust, then flip the assets to get a guy like Wood or Bertuzzi I guess, but I'm not sure their being younger is worth more than stockpiling assets to go big game hunting (unless there's a guy like that who could really, really take off with a change of scenery to here).

Oh, I absolutely don't advocate replacing Rust in free agency. If you trade him, you trade him for a player who's younger who's still developing but is already a top 9 guy, not pure futures (unless you already have that player coming back in a separate deal). I'm just riffing on the idea espoused by a few people that we trade Rust for a younger, proto-Rust.

 

[Peat]

Oh, I absolutely don't advocate replacing Rust in free agency. If you trade him, you trade him for a player who's younger who's still developing but is already a top 9 guy, not pure futures (unless you already have that player coming back in a separate deal). I'm just riffing on the idea espoused by a few people that we trade Rust for a younger, proto-Rust.

I guess I don't totally hate the idea, but I think there's a solid chance you end up with a guy who's worse than the free agent, and with less overall assets. Would have to be very selective about the target.

Also, that's probably a three way deal, because realistically most contending teams with proto-Rusts don't want to lose that guy for Rust. Gotta pick on the rebuilders.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I am also a bit reluctant to proclaim Rust as a bona-fide clutch Claude Lemieux kind of player just yet-- he was absolutely clutch during the B2Bs, sure. But players like Brassard were also tagged "big game players" after a few series and then couldn't live up to the tag. If he comes out blazing as an instrumental member of this squad in the post-season, well, then we just hope we convince him to take a hometown discount. But if he doesn't... I'm not so sure we'd be necessarily worse off getting some fresh blood/hunger in there.

Rust has also been shit in the playoffs since 2017, I think that's worth pointing out too.

For all of the criticism guys like Hornqvist and Kessel got in the playoffs, Rust really doesn't get much when he probably deserves it. He has 6 points in 20 playoff games since they won the 2017 cup.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Craig Smith prior to signing his 3 x 3.1m at 30/31 - .44 ppg that season, .53 ppg the preceding three seasons with a .64 ppg high mark in the third season

30 year old Palmieri - .44 ppg this season, .62 ppg the preceding three seasons with a .67 ppg high mark in the third season

Maybe I'm missing something, but it looks to me like Palmieri's ppg was .69 over the previous 3 seasons.

That's a pretty considerable difference to Smith's .53.

 

[Goalie_Bob]

Exchanging Palmieri for Rust is plain lunacy imo?

While Palmieri is already starting to trend downwards, Rust is just getting better. I just don't get it. It's not size, they are the same height and basically the same weight. Rust is a much better skater and defensive player. For next season, Rust is the better player and he will cost less.

Some idiot team is gonna give Palmieri like a 4 year deal for like 5-6mil and be regretting by the second season. I'd much rather give that to Rust in 2 years. Go ask the Islanders fans how he has done for their team since the trade. He has been rubbish.

Malkin at the very least is going to have to take less money, can't pay a guy who can't stay healthy 9.5 mil a year and is 36 when he starts that new contract. My thought is he will sign around a 3 year deal for 8 mil aav. That would take him out to the end of Crosby's deal as well.

Letang, I think he signs for around the same amount as now. 7.5mil for 3 years.

By the time Rust starts his new deal the cap will be going back up. I have no doubt in my mind that if next season has full houses that the cap for 2023 will be higher due to the new TV revenues.

 

[Andy99]

If you replace Rust, you go younger, not older/the same age IMO.

as I’ve said, you can trade him for a first round pick but should do that only if the Pens fail again in the POs and look to jump start the rebuild...otherwise, I think it’s wise to explore trading him for a younger not-yet-established player...either that, or just let him walk next year...I’m not interested in giving out a 3+ year contract to 30 year old Rust and I love the player...if you can get him to sign a one or two year extension, then fine...otherwise trade him

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think my stance for what this team should do for now is:

1. Move Zucker after this year (or lose him in the expansion draft), replace him with a short term cheaper UFA (someone making around $2.5 million). I think Armia, Perreault, Heinen and Dzingel all make sense as options here. Someone basically on par with what 2019 Bjugstad was for the Penguins. I think I'd pick Armia from this group.
2. Move ZAR after this year (or lose him in the expansion draft), replace him with cheaper WBS options. No need to pay ZAR what he's going to want IMO.
3. Keep Pettersson and Matheson for next year, with the plans of moving one of them after the 2021-2022 season. Gives POJ an extra year of development plus it gives Matheson and Pettersson a chance at rebounding/increasing their value. Waiting a year likely makes it easier to trade them without taking significant money back.
4. Re-sign Rodrigues if he's willing to take another cheap deal. If not, let him walk.

Now this can change based on what happens in the playoffs, but I'm hoping for a relatively quiet off-season. Plan on ending up with something like:

Guentzel-Crosby-Rust
McCann-Malkin-Kapanen
Tanev-Carter-Armia
Zohorna-Blueger-Rodrigues
Lafferty-Angello

Dumoulin-Letang
Pettersson-Marino
Matheson-Ruhwedel
Friedman

Jarry-DeSmith

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Rust has also been shit in the playoffs since 2017, I think that's worth pointing out too.

For all of the criticism guys like Hornqvist and Kessel got in the playoffs, Rust really doesn't get much when he probably deserves it. He has 6 points in 20 playoff games since they won the 2017 cup.

AFAIC, we shouldn't hold any Penguin to their playoff performances the last couple years unless we're prepared to take everyone to task.

Every Penguin has been shit, basically.

 

[Beauner]

AFAIC, we shouldn't hold any Penguin to their playoff performances the last couple years unless we're prepared to take everyone to task.

Every Penguin has been shit, basically.

agreed. that's a pretty lazy argument to make when criticizing anyone who has been here the last couple years. It applies to all of them

 

[Empoleon8771]

agreed. that's a pretty lazy argument to make when criticizing anyone who has been here the last couple years. It applies to all of them

I mean, it's even lazier to say "we can't criticize anyone specifically because everyone has been shit".

 

[Extra Texture]

(from last thread)

McCann is on pace for 30 goals right now.

Pavs was probably the wrong player to compare them to. I see Jake as our Pavs.

And 60 points. It wont tell in the numbers because its all projected points, but he is absolutely crushing his career numbers right now, and realizing the promise we've seen for most of the last 2 seasons. Not to pile on but I think it bears repeating.

I know "projected points" in a shortened season is kind of a crapshoot, but it's not as if McCann has been riding a 36 game hot streak. He started off slowly and has really stepped up in the second half, just as you'd expect in a normal season with its hot and cold periods. If he can actually settle in to being a 45-60 point guy going forward, annually, that would be massive.

 

[Peat]

Maybe I'm missing something, but it looks to me like Palmieri's ppg was .69 over the previous 3 seasons.

That's a pretty considerable difference to Smith's .53.

Might be correct for the three seasons preceding this one - I was including this season and the two before as what will be the three seasons prior to his next contract.

Either way you dice it is a difference, but I don't think it's as important as the season immediately preceding and the high water mark, which are very similar.

Exchanging Palmieri for Rust is plain lunacy imo?

While Palmieri is already starting to trend downwards, Rust is just getting better. I just don't get it. It's not size, they are the same height and basically the same weight. Rust is a much better skater and defensive player. For next season, Rust is the better player and he will cost less.

Some idiot team is gonna give Palmieri like a 4 year deal for like 5-6mil and be regretting by the second season. I'd much rather give that to Rust in 2 years. Go ask the Islanders fans how he has done for their team since the trade. He has been rubbish.

Malkin at the very least is going to have to take less money, can't pay a guy who can't stay healthy 9.5 mil a year and is 36 when he starts that new contract. My thought is he will sign around a 3 year deal for 8 mil aav. That would take him out to the end of Crosby's deal as well.

Letang, I think he signs for around the same amount as now. 7.5mil for 3 years.

By the time Rust starts his new deal the cap will be going back up. I have no doubt in my mind that if next season has full houses that the cap for 2023 will be higher due to the new TV revenues.

If Rust is just getting better, why has his 5v5 p/60 gone from 2.54 to 1.5? And why has his PP p/60 gone from 6.77 to 4.84?

Also, if Rust is a better defensive player, how comes his 5v5 xGA/60 has always been higher than the team average in the last three seasons (including this one) and Palmieri's has always been lower?

I get being iffy on Palmieri. But I don't see the same Rust you do.

Also, the cap's probably not going up for the next two seasons after this one and maybe longer. The players' escrow debt - estimated at 800m at the end of this season - needs to be paid off before the salary cap can rise again. The extra TV money is unlikely to accomplish that in one season.

 

[Empoleon8771]

It's also worth pointing out how different the 2018 team is from today's team. From the 2018 playoffs to today, you still have Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel, Letang, Dumoulin, Rust, Ruhwedel and ZAR. That's really it, everyone else has either been acquired via trade or has come up through the system after 2018.

Saying "everyone has sucked since 2018 so we can't criticize anyone specifically" doesn't really work because the Penguins have been consistently throwing aside the shitty players that have sucked in the playoffs in recent years.

 

[SEALBound]

I think the easy conclusion here is Rust did great in 2016 and 2017. Rust was not great in 2018 - 2020. He is likely a better playoff performer than what the stats in 2018-2020 suggest as the team, in general, sucked as well.

Doesn't excuse the performance but I would bet that the team playing better as a whole would yield better Rust results as well.

 

[Tom Hanks]

agreed. that's a pretty lazy argument to make when criticizing anyone who has been here the last couple years. It applies to all of them

I mean, it's even lazier to say "we can't criticize anyone specifically because everyone has been shit".

 

[HandshakeLine]

AFAIC, we shouldn't hold any Penguin to their playoff performances the last couple years unless we're prepared to take everyone to task.

Every Penguin has been shit, basically.

Which is why I put no real stock in the "clutch in the playoffs" tag that players get around this site, nor would I want to overpay for a player based on their playoff rep alone. IMO, we should be looking at fit and style of play moreso than past practice on playoff squads that get hot at the right time.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Didn't Beleskey (or someone of his ilk) get paid for being a playoff performer?

 

[mpp9]

This team’s better than prior years. They have legit forward depth and a mobile/productive blue line. The latter being a major problem the past few years. Anyone who doesn’t perform this playoffs, it’s on that specific player.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Didn't Beleskey (or someone of his ilk) get paid for being a playoff performer?

I'm pretty sure Boston threw a ton of money at him because he got 9 in 16 for Anaheim. How did that work out?