CheckingLineCenter
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- Aug 10, 2018
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Pretty much nothing, only thing that kinda caught my eye was that it seems like they have a deal in place with Pettersson.
Salary Cap: Pittsburgh Penguins Salary Cap Thread - Banana Pancakes
- Thread starter Randy Butternubs
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Pretty much nothing, only thing that kinda caught my eye was that it seems like they have a deal in place with Pettersson.
Khelandros
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- Feb 12, 2019
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This is all well and good, but what does it look like when it's just Malkin with Kessel, and then when the two are apart? Blame defence all you want, but turning the puck over at center ice or the opponent blue line is all on Malkin and Kessel.Want to start your morning extremely depressed? Micah McCurdy just introduced a with and without tool. Turns out Johnson literally single-handedly torpedoed Malkin and Kessel this season.
Randy Butternubs
Registered User
I'm sure the "deal" is dependent upon how much cap space they have after a trade. My assumption is that they'll give Petterrson the remainder of the cap space minus about $100k. And then the years on the deal will depend on how high of a cap hit they can sign him for. If they can only sign him for under $2M then it'll probably be a one year deal. Something like:
- <$2M, one year
- $2M to $2.75M, two years
- $2.75M to $3.5M, three years
- and so on
dogthateats
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Empoleon8771
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That was my impression based on what Pettersson's agent said as well.
EightyOne
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- Nov 23, 2016
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All these media types need to stop posting how bad JMFJ is....another GM might see it.
Any GM interested in Johnson is clearly oblivious to other people's opinions anyway, so I reckon we're safe enough.
Probably like utter dog****. I just put the numbers for Malkin-Kessel-Johnson-Schultz into NST. Johnson-Schultz's xGF% with the pairing was 34%. Of course, their actual GF% was 57.14%...
Meanwhile, Johnson-Malkin-Kessel NO Schultz had an xGF% of 51.83%, but a GF% of just 50%, with an unusually low shooting percentage and high save percentage. Johnson's rough possession numbers there are almost certainly a product of Schultz, but they were still better with him there. And while I generally insist that PDO is mainly luck, Schultz is one of the few guys who cheats it consistently enough that there's something more going on...
Anyway, Pettersson-Johnson had a 25% GF with Malkin-Kessel and a 60% xGF%.
Dumo-Letang had a 37.50 GF% and 54.64 xGF%.
Riikola-Maatta's 40 minutes of them resulted in both numbers being in the 60s (maatta without Riikola was bad).
And Pettersson-Gudbranson had a 33.33% GF and 65.26 GF%.
Very weird stuff all round. If I didn't think that Kessel's line was often better with poor possession stats before now, I'd certainly be forming the thesis...
Dipsy Doodle
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HockeyBuzz.com - Ryan Wilson - Successful 2019-20 season for Malkin depends on defense deployment
I don't often agree with Wilson, but a number of people (myself included) have spoken about what a drag JJ was on the 2nd line.
The numbers seem to bear that out with Geno. It'd be interesting to see how much JJ affected Kessel, who had the unfortunate distinction of playing the most with him.
I don't often agree with Wilson, but a number of people (myself included) have spoken about what a drag JJ was on the 2nd line.
The numbers seem to bear that out with Geno. It'd be interesting to see how much JJ affected Kessel, who had the unfortunate distinction of playing the most with him.
BlindWillyMcHurt
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I would be more skeptical of these charts if the eye test game after game after game didn't bear the same thing out.
It was pretty obvious, really.
Ready for more?
Dipsy Doodle
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BlindWillyMcHurt
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Empoleon8771
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Yeah, this post is exactly why I think people need to do more than just look at 1 chart and draw conclusions from it. That's why I wanted to look at more charts than just the Malkin-Kessel-Johnson with/without charts. In an alternate timeline, I wonder what Johnson's end of year analytics (so the last 25 games or so) would have looked like had Schultz not come back. I'm starting to theorize that both Johnson and Schultz drag each other down, but they wouldn't bring down another pair if they weren't paired with each other. In the small sample size that they didn't play together at the end of the year, both had xGF% of over 53%.
The issue is that not playing those two together includes playing Johnson with Gudbranson, and my big concern about that is how good Gudbranson is when he's not playing with Pettersson. Was that pair amazing because Gudbranson was fine and Pettersson was amazing? If I could pick the pairs, I'd probably go with:
Johnson-Letang
Dumoulin-Schultz
Pettersson-Gudbranson
I really want to use McCurdy's with/without tool to see how the top-4 D pairs have done historically.
Dennis Reynolds
I have to have my tools!
Yep. This is spot-on. A year of JJ instead of Schultz was brutal. Really, every pair on every team has to be able to make that first pass.
Dumoulin - Letang are so fantastic at it, they don’t even need to be discussed.
Jumping to the third pair, Petterson - Gudbranson was actually good. Hutton - Gudbranson were terrible in Vancouver, but somehow Petterson was what Gudbranson needed to look solid. And Petterson seems to be semi-adept at moving the puck. Hesitant to break them up.
That leaves Schultz on a second pair island by himself with either Johnson or Riikola. Johnson flatly cannot hack it. I like Riikola, and I hope he can become a fit there, but I don't think he is yet.
The success of xxxxx - Malkin - Galchenyuk depends on JR dumping JJ, sliding Riikola to 7, and finding a defensively sound, offensively capable left shot defenseman who has a fantastic first pass.
ColePens
RIP Fugu Buffaloed & parabola
Confirmed Ryan Wilson is KIRK.
BlindWillyMcHurt
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Is there ANY good way to work Petterson in on the second pairing without the extra icetime and responsibility becoming a factor? I really do think he's due for a very good year and a lot of the numbers from last year seem to back that up. I know he looked good with Gudbranson and that's swell but I'm much more concerned about getting that second pairing nailed down and I think he maybe has something to offer, there.
@Dennis Reynolds - this is just me sort of splitting hairs on a slow day but I really feel like not only is that first pass important but even moreso is just the ability to skate WITH the puck. That's one of the things Daley did so well, here. He wasn't afraid to skate it out of his own end and make a play.
It's why I wasn't so worked up over what Malkin said re: Ruh last season. He wasn't wrong. And was obviously frustrated by the utter lack of that ability in the guys regularly playing behind him.
@Dennis Reynolds - this is just me sort of splitting hairs on a slow day but I really feel like not only is that first pass important but even moreso is just the ability to skate WITH the puck. That's one of the things Daley did so well, here. He wasn't afraid to skate it out of his own end and make a play.
It's why I wasn't so worked up over what Malkin said re: Ruh last season. He wasn't wrong. And was obviously frustrated by the utter lack of that ability in the guys regularly playing behind him.
Dennis Reynolds
I have to have my tools!
So I ABSOLUTELY get wanting to work Petterson onto the second pair. He’s the team’s fourth-best defenseman. But. If you take away what worked from a $4M #6, he could regress to Van levels, and you have a worse problem than JJ.
Who knows, Gudbranson could come out and be a dumpster fire no matter what since the shine of a new team has faded. Or maybe Riikola has progressed enough that he could slot in beside Gudbranson and they could be a solid bottom pairing.
But it’s all moot anyway. Johnson is a Penguin, and as of right now, we have to live with one of:
Petterson - Schultz
Johnson - Gudbranson
Or
Johnson - Schultz
Petterson - Gudbranson
And both are awful.
BrookswasHere44
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BlindWillyMcHurt
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Geez. And I was having such a nice day up until now.
But no, really... your reasoning is sound. I guess it's just like... what does this team expect? They want to harp on Malkin all offseason and wring their hands about him needing to be better OR ELSE! And, what... that's the most they look into the "problem?" I mean... outside of big, stupid, hot dog faced Phil Kessel and his gambling ways, of course. And he's gone. None of these players operate in a vacuum. There is a 5 man dynamic for everything that happens or doesn't happen out on the ice. Guys like Crosby and Malkin are good enough that they can sometimes completely break away from that dynamic and operate outside of the realms of what should normally be reasonable and expected. But even at their primes... certainly not all the time or even that often. And they are not in their primes.
I'm real sad over the team not being able to help itself and doubling down with another expensive, limited third pairing D but honestly I think stabilizing the second pairing so you have a competent set of defensemen behind Malkin and whatever garbage they saddle him with is infinitely more important. Trying to use one of your consensus top 4 best defenseman in an already-limited group to prop up your 3rd pairing because a guy needs a babysitter is just absolutely ridiculous to me. I'm not harping on you... you're right. It just makes me pissed.
Empoleon8771
Registered User
If you're not willing to split up Dumoulin-Letang, I think you need to just treat Pettersson-Gudbranson as your 2nd pair and run with Riikola-Schultz as your 3rd pair. Try to recreate the 2nd and 3rd pairs from 2016 or 2017, try to get 2 about evenly talented pairs that are both offensively and defensively solid.
To me, a Pettersson-Gudbranson pair is no worse than Maatta-Lovejoy, which was a common D pair for the Penguins on their 2016 cup run. I'm perfectly happy with that pair getting 18 or 19 minutes a night. They need to find another 2017 Cole and get Schultz to get his head out of his ass for that defense to get to where it needs to be. If I could pick, I'd get rid of both Schultz and Johnson and try to make your bottom pair very similar to a Cole-Daley pair.
I'd also be down for keeping Gudbranson on the bottom pair with Riikola and trying to find a better defenseman than Schultz for the 2nd pair with Pettersson. A Riikola-Gudbranson bottom pair is in the mold of the Cole-Daley pair, that has what I think that pair needs. You just need to address your 2nd pair, because I'm not crazy about a potential Pettersson-Schultz pair. I'm also scared for how Gudbranson looks away from Pettersson, because I think Pettersson is really damn good and likely carried that pair last year.
To me, a Pettersson-Gudbranson pair is no worse than Maatta-Lovejoy, which was a common D pair for the Penguins on their 2016 cup run. I'm perfectly happy with that pair getting 18 or 19 minutes a night. They need to find another 2017 Cole and get Schultz to get his head out of his ass for that defense to get to where it needs to be. If I could pick, I'd get rid of both Schultz and Johnson and try to make your bottom pair very similar to a Cole-Daley pair.
I'd also be down for keeping Gudbranson on the bottom pair with Riikola and trying to find a better defenseman than Schultz for the 2nd pair with Pettersson. A Riikola-Gudbranson bottom pair is in the mold of the Cole-Daley pair, that has what I think that pair needs. You just need to address your 2nd pair, because I'm not crazy about a potential Pettersson-Schultz pair. I'm also scared for how Gudbranson looks away from Pettersson, because I think Pettersson is really damn good and likely carried that pair last year.
Shaftception
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Empoleon8771
Registered User
I mean, Johnson is still here and JR hasn't really expressed any issues with his play. Wanting to trade him because of his contract and being over the cap doesn't necessarily mean he thinks he's a bad player.
AjaxTelamon
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- Jul 8, 2011
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Want to start your morning extremely depressed? Micah McCurdy just introduced a with and without tool. Turns out Johnson literally single-handedly torpedoed Malkin and Kessel this season.
I was assured by quite the many posters here that getting rid of Kessel was additional by subtraction, and he was the problem at ES last year.
So I am forced to decline to accept this data at this time.
Empoleon8771
Registered User
Why don't you check the with/without stats for Malkin with Kessel and Malkin without Kessel before making that claim?
Edit: nevermind, I'll do it instead:
Malkin without Kessel: +4% offensive threat, -7% defensive threat
Kessel without Malkin: -8% offensive threat, +14% defensive threat
But yes, Kessel definitely wasn't a problem at ES last year.
Empoleon8771
Registered User
This tool that McCurdy put out is super cool, and I'm learning some neat stuff from it:
-Schultz dragged down Malkin more than Johnson did last year, Johnson only hurt Malkin offensively but helped his numbers defensively. Schultz brought down both a ton.
-The best D pair with Malkin last year was Pettersson-Gudbranson (+33% offensive threat level, -17% defensive threat level) followed by Pettersson-Johnson (+26% offensive threat level, -5% defensive threat level).
-Kessel and Malkin as a duo were actually very good, but Kessel overall sucked ass at ES last year
-ZAR-Malkin-Kessel was a great offensively (+7% threat level), but an absolute monster defensively (-19% threat level defensively)
-The ZAR-Malkin duo was excellent at ES, with a +12% offensive threat level and a -16% defensive threat level in 181 minutes
-Schultz dragged down Malkin more than Johnson did last year, Johnson only hurt Malkin offensively but helped his numbers defensively. Schultz brought down both a ton.
-The best D pair with Malkin last year was Pettersson-Gudbranson (+33% offensive threat level, -17% defensive threat level) followed by Pettersson-Johnson (+26% offensive threat level, -5% defensive threat level).
-Kessel and Malkin as a duo were actually very good, but Kessel overall sucked ass at ES last year
-ZAR-Malkin-Kessel was a great offensively (+7% threat level), but an absolute monster defensively (-19% threat level defensively)
-The ZAR-Malkin duo was excellent at ES, with a +12% offensive threat level and a -16% defensive threat level in 181 minutes
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