Salary Cap: Pittsburgh Penguins Salary Cap Thread: A New Error?

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Gurglesons

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Figured I'd bring this from the main board here, but I was looking at the comparison between pre-Chicago Daley (meaning 2012-2015) and pre-Pittsburgh Matheson (meaning 2017-2020), and their results are staggeringly similar:

5v5 goals/60: 0.31 for Daley, 0.32 for Matheson
5v5 points/60: 0.98 for Daley, 0.87 for Matheson

CF%Rel: -3.96% for Daley, -0.80% for Matheson
xGF%Rel: -2.15% for Daley, -2.00% for Matheson
GF%Rel: +0.4% for Daley, -4.00% for Matheson
HDCF%Rel: -1.67% for Daley, -2.47% for Matheson

You basically have Daley being slightly better at getting assists, which can possibly be explained by comparing the teams (Dallas was 12th, 11th and 2nd in GF in those years, while Florida was 14th, 9th and 7th), but everything else being more or less a wash.

Some of us may have made this comparison.
 

Peat

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Jun 14, 2016
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As an option to diversify offense if the org continues to ignore the problems with Malkin's line.

Not ideal, but I don't see people offering many realistic targets who'd do as much to help with ES and PP offense, not to mention playoff performance. Who do you prefer?

If they're not going to fix Malkin's line, and the next plan isn't just get a really good goalie and tighten the hell up hugely, then I'd just want them to sell. Turbo-charging the 3rd in that situation is just not going to shift the needle.

I mean, Peat isn't this thread just a non-stop paradox of we need to get a RW for Crosby that produces on the power play, a LW for Malkin that supports his play and plays an aggressive game and a new goaltender? No matter what year or date you come in the Pens salary cap thread it is continuous.

Which kind of speaks to the fact that maybe Malkin and the PP are the issues and not the personnel considering we had Phil Kessel and Patric Hornqvist and the PP still blew and we've tried plenty of LWs that seem to have success elsewhere with Malkin in Pearson and Perron, but the reality is that sometimes it is more about simple fixes than names.

I guess there's some truth in that for sure.

And I certainly think the big problem with Malkin is Malkin right now. I'm not saying him and Zucker will magically look great if Malkin suddenly gets good again, but Malkin is in his own head (with unknown levels of decline too) and there's only so much personnel can do to change that. And there's only so much personnel can do until Malkin gets his mojo (and maybe legs) back too.

Figured I'd bring this from the main board here, but I was looking at the comparison between pre-Chicago Daley (meaning 2012-2015) and pre-Pittsburgh Matheson (meaning 2017-2020), and their results are staggeringly similar:

5v5 goals/60: 0.31 for Daley, 0.32 for Matheson
5v5 points/60: 0.98 for Daley, 0.87 for Matheson

CF%Rel: -3.96% for Daley, -0.80% for Matheson
xGF%Rel: -2.15% for Daley, -2.00% for Matheson
GF%Rel: +0.4% for Daley, -4.00% for Matheson
HDCF%Rel: -1.67% for Daley, -2.47% for Matheson

You basically have Daley being slightly better at getting assists, which can possibly be explained by comparing the teams (Dallas was 12th, 11th and 2nd in GF in those years, while Florida was 14th, 9th and 7th), but everything else being more or less a wash.

Except the GF%Rel. I know it's not the best predictor, but after so long, there's a good chance it's not one of those freak things... fingers crossed that's on Florida's system more than Matheson.
 

Empoleon8771

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Aug 25, 2015
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Except the GF%Rel. I know it's not the best predictor, but after so long, there's a good chance it's not one of those freak things... fingers crossed that's on Florida's system more than Matheson.

Matheson had a .987 PDO while Daley had a 1.006. The difference was spread about evenly between offense (9.51 to 8.04) and defense (91.74 to 90.71). I think that pretty much explains it in its entirety.

Daley overperformed his analytics because he was getting decently lucky scoring and goaltending, while Matheson underperformed his analytics because he was getting pretty unlucky scoring and goaltending.
 

pistolpete11

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Apr 27, 2013
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Kapanen out of the top six makes no sense. He's Bryan Rust 2.0.
It could be Zucker to L3, too, but I don't see that Malkin and Kapanen have some undeniable chemistry and Zucker is just f***ing things up. Malkin and Kap have connected on a few goals, but for the most part, the entire line just seems out of sorts most of the time. It's just not a good mix. They should dangle Dumo for the best winger they can find regardless of handedness.
 
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Gurglesons

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It could be Zucker to L3, too, but I don't see that Malkin and Kapanen have some undeniable chemistry and Zucker is just f***ing things up. Malkin and Kap have connected on a few goals, but for the most part, the entire line just seems out of sorts most of the time. It's just not a good mix. They should dangle Dumo for the best winger they can find regardless of handedness.

Really? I love what I've seen from Kappy and Malkin.
 
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vodeni

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It could be Zucker to L3, too, but I don't see that Malkin and Kapanen have some undeniable chemistry and Zucker is just f***ing things up. Malkin and Kap have connected on a few goals, but for the most part, the entire line just seems out of sorts most of the time. It's just not a good mix. They should dangle Dumo for the best winger they can find regardless of handedness.
is there a coaching part here? we are pretty much doomed to have them as a second line, unless they make some trade moves...I wonder if there is something in tactics or structure that they could set up this line for success, I hate how they allow the opponent to get through the NZ fast unless Geno is in full haunting mode...maybe sit back and play counter attack (that does not seem to fit Zucker) something has to be out there to give them the best chance to succeed...btw, I also see no instant chemistry between Kappy and Malkin not whatsoever...
 

KIRK

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Zucker hasn't been great, but I'm not as convinced he's the real problem with L2. I think it is a combination of Malkin not playing well and Zucker/Kap not being a good mix, at least for Malkin. If it takes a Zucker swap, that's fine by me, but I think it could also be finding a different RW.

BART is a solid line, but in my view, I think the ultimate goal should be to have L4 be ZAR - 4C - Tanev.

The easiest way to build that depth is to get a top 6 winger and bump some guys down. Dumo for a top 6 winger. McCann for a different mix, a la Bennett.


Gunetzel - Crosby - Rust (because Sully)
Zucker - Malkin - (trade)
(Bennett) - Blueger - Kap
ZAR - Jank/4C - Tanev

Petts - Letang
Matheson - Marino
POJ - Ruh/Ceci



They need to figure out the situation in goal and certain guys, namely Malkin, just need to play better, but on paper, I'd be satisfied going into the playoffs with that roster.

The one constant in Malkin's worst stretch of hockey in his career has been Zucker. And, it's not like it was that much more inspiring in the playoffs before this.

As I keep saying, sometimes two guys are just oil and water together and you have to accept it and move on from there.

At least Malkin and Kapanen are on the same planet as far as chemistry goes.

Zucker is one of your trade pieces, although I think the 'injured LD for L2 LW' swap is the thing that is most conceivable.

EDIT: One thing I love is this 'well give them time to develop chemistry'. Truth is, there NEVER has been a good Malkin line that developed chemistry over time. The chemistry was obvious from the beginning, and there was production from the beginning. It didn't guarantee that the line would endure, but instant chemistry was a hallmark of every single good or better Malkin line.
 

KIRK

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Really? I love what I've seen from Kappy and Malkin.

I'm not sure how good the partnership can or will be over time, but it took all of two seconds to see the chemistry. Zucker is playing a different game than those two. And, truth be told, it's not even a question of fault. It's more a question of the coach needing to accept that Malkin and Zucker don't work together and never worked together (outside of practice, I suppose) and to act proactively . . . which is precisely why we're left to wait for a Hextall intervention before it's too late.

It could be Zucker to L3, too, but I don't see that Malkin and Kapanen have some undeniable chemistry and Zucker is just f***ing things up. Malkin and Kap have connected on a few goals, but for the most part, the entire line just seems out of sorts most of the time. It's just not a good mix. They should dangle Dumo for the best winger they can find regardless of handedness.

I don't know if Malkin and Kapanen have undeniable chemistry either, but there have been a lot of hints of it, which is a lot of hints more than there are of Malkin and Zucker having chemistry.
 

vodeni

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Oct 27, 2010
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you people know that our top 6 will start getting injured at some point...our depth is so thin that getting rid of any of the forwards remotely capable of playing in top 6 is big no-no....dip into some of this d-core...
 

Daeni10

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Dec 31, 2013
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I don't get all the hate for Zucker. He has produced exactly like the player you traded for. Not sure what was expected of him production wise, but I think production wise he has been perfectly fine. He is also producing like a 2nd line winger. There obviously are issues with the 2nd line but I think overall the player material we have here is a good top 6
 

SEALBound

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I suspect that's Hextall's plan. Dumoulin or Pettersson.

I also suspect Zucker and McCann may be other chips.

I think it would be two of those (maybe three) and the 2nd. And honestly, there's some value there. No more or less value than Perron, Scuderi, and a 3rd.

I can see a 1:1 between Zuck or McCann, I could see Poulin or the 2nd to be used on a guy like Blake Coleman, and I can see Dumo or Petts out for a goalie swap.
 

KIRK

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I don't get all the hate for Zucker. He has produced exactly like the player you traded for. Not sure what was expected of him production wise, but I think production wise he has been perfectly fine. He is also producing like a 2nd line winger. There obviously are issues with the 2nd line but I think overall the player material we have here is a good top 6

Sid isn't going to play with him, he's oil and water with Malkin, BART is the 3rd line, and apparently he can't be played on the other bottom six line because he's not a bottom 6 player even if he was one when the Pens traded for him.

It's not hate. It's about priorities.

For a lot of us, it's 'Malkin has played the worst hockey of his career, and the one constant for him has been Zucker; ergo, accept that sometimes two players don't work together and split them up'.

For others, it's 'you paid a 1st for Zucker and he produces enough to be in the top 6 or something, so you have to play him with Malkin and Kapanen because that's the only spot the coach will put him, and it's on Malkin to make that work even if it's been clear since day one it won't work'.

I'm in the former group. You appear to be in the latter group. I don't see what's 'hateful' in acknowledging that.

I think it would be two of those (maybe three) and the 2nd. And honestly, there's some value there. No more or less value than Perron, Scuderi, and a 3rd.

I can see a 1:1 between Zuck or McCann, I could see Poulin or the 2nd to be used on a guy like Blake Coleman, and I can see Dumo or Petts out for a goalie swap.

Not sure you have to give up Poulin. Depends on whether one or both of McCann or Zucker is moved. Conceivably, you could move the LD for the better fit at L2 LW and take more of a stop gap goalie rental with a lesser asset, leaving Zucker-McCann as 2/3 of a bottom 6 line (not sure if there's a goalie who fits that bill, of course).
 

mpp9

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Dec 5, 2010
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I don't get all the hate for Zucker. He has produced exactly like the player you traded for. Not sure what was expected of him production wise, but I think production wise he has been perfectly fine. He is also producing like a 2nd line winger. There obviously are issues with the 2nd line but I think overall the player material we have here is a good top 6

Sometimes a player isn’t a fit for the spot he’s being slotted into.
 
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Rakell67

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Sep 28, 2017
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I’ve seen his name come up here and there but I would love to get Miles Wood from NJ.
Not sure if McCann would be enough.
Pettersson?
Zucker for Wood +?
 
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pistolpete11

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Apr 27, 2013
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The one constant in Malkin's worst stretch of hockey in his career has been Zucker. And, it's not like it was that much more inspiring in the playoffs before this.

As I keep saying, sometimes two guys are just oil and water together and you have to accept it and move on from there.

At least Malkin and Kapanen are on the same planet as far as chemistry goes.

Zucker is one of your trade pieces, although I think the 'injured LD for L2 LW' swap is the thing that is most conceivable.

EDIT: One thing I love is this 'well give them time to develop chemistry'. Truth is, there NEVER has been a good Malkin line that developed chemistry over time. The chemistry was obvious from the beginning, and there was production from the beginning. It didn't guarantee that the line would endure, but instant chemistry was a hallmark of every single good or better Malkin line.
Zucker-Malkin-Rust played well in the playoffs last year. They just didn't bury their chances. I think their underlying numbers to start this season were pretty good too all things being considered.

Anyway, I'm not advocating that Zucker needs to be kept with Malkin. They just need to find the right mix for Malkin, it's not Zucker-Kap, and Zucker/Kapanen would help bolster L3.
 

KIRK

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Aug 2, 2005
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Zucker-Malkin-Rust played well in the playoffs last year. They just didn't bury their chances. I think their underlying numbers to start this season were pretty good too all things being considered.

Anyway, I'm not advocating that Zucker needs to be kept with Malkin. They just need to find the right mix for Malkin, it's not Zucker-Kap, and Zucker/Kapanen would help bolster L3.

Underlying numbers, yes. Results, no. BUT, that goes back to my greater point: There's never been a successful Malkin line that didn't show instant chemistry (numbers and eye test) with some level of results to boot.

To my mind, Zucker has been the constant, so change the constant. However unorthodox the change, try something or a couple of somethings to hope that one move sticks and sparks Malkin (a la Therrien and some of the funky stuff he'd do to snap Malkin out of it . . . or like the one time Bylsma had a moment of inspiration and slid Talbot up to L2 in 2009).

But, Zucker won't be part of the answer. Unfortunate, but it is what it is. Even Jesse flagged Zucker today.
 
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CrosbyMalkin

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Aug 7, 2005
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you people know that our top 6 will start getting injured at some point...our depth is so thin that getting rid of any of the forwards remotely capable of playing in top 6 is big no-no....dip into some of this d-core...

I agree we have McCann who could go up with ZAR playing his spot with Blueger and Tanev. But we definitely need to keep our top 9 forwards. I think the Pens are getting good production from the 3rd line so we are fine at forward. I am not worried about the 4th line because we can play them 5-8 minutes a game and between ZAR/McCann whoever isn't playing with Blueger and Tanev you have that person added to that line.

Before adding try moving around the top 6 forwards because we have enough forwards to make a decent bottom 6. The way ZAR is playing McCann might be that guy going to the 4th line and with him and Sceviour, O'Connor, Rodriguez, Lafferty, and Jankowski you should be able to make a line for those sheltered minutes.

Defensman look deep also when healthy. Get me a good veteran goaltender and all be happy. Goalies never cost much so we are not talking big assets needed.
 

Turin

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Feb 27, 2018
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I don't get all the hate for Zucker. He has produced exactly like the player you traded for. Not sure what was expected of him production wise, but I think production wise he has been perfectly fine. He is also producing like a 2nd line winger. There obviously are issues with the 2nd line but I think overall the player material we have here is a good top 6

I like Zucker’s game quite a bit but I liked it most with Crosby. I’m surprised he’s not working with Malkin but it is what it is. I’d rather keep him around than say McCann if it came down to it, but I’m open to dealing him for the right player.
 
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Tom Hanks

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I don’t think that moving Zucker is going to make Malkin play better.

Maybe not short term but there’s no short term Stanley Cup.

Zucker would fit in the bottom 6 but that’s a lot of cap given our situation. Plus we don’t have anyone realistically to swap Zucker with internally to go to Malkin’s line to accommodate that.
 
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pistolpete11

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Apr 27, 2013
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Underlying numbers, yes. Results, no. BUT, that goes back to my greater point: There's never been a successful Malkin line that didn't show instant chemistry (numbers and eye test) with some level of results to boot.

To my mind, Zucker has been the constant, so change the constant. However unorthodox the change, try something or a couple of somethings to hope that one move sticks and sparks Malkin (a la Therrien and some of the funky stuff he'd do to snap Malkin out of it . . . or like the one time Bylsma had a moment of inspiration and slid Talbot up to L2 in 2009).

But, Zucker won't be part of the answer. Unfortunate, but it is what it is. Even Jesse flagged Zucker today.
I'm all for trying different things and have been in favor of GMR since the play-in.
 
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