Pittsburgh Penguins Prospects Thread

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Empoleon8771

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It seemed like many were quick to anoint Bjorkqvist as the top forward prospect after a hot start to the season, but he finished with only 1 goal more than the previous season and was 4th on his team in scoring. Hard to imagine him having much more than a 4th line impact at the NHL level.

Bjorkqvist increased his overall point production by 7 and served as the captain for Providence. I really don't see why you're trying to talk him down, he's absolutely a good prospect.

For comparison, Rust had 15 goals and 34 points in 41 games in his junior year with Notre Dame. Bjorkqvist had 17 goals and 30 points in 42 games, that's really not a huge difference. Not only that, but judging players based solely on their offensive totals in NCAA is pretty foolish for projecting their upside as NHLers.
 

Empoleon8771

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Just because I think it's important to point out, here is how the Penguins college draft picks did in their junior years from 2009-2012 (not including Bennett due to injuries):

Hanowski: 23 goals and 43 points in 39 games, has played in the DEL since 15-16
Rust: 15 goals and 34 points in 41 games, fringe 2nd/3rd liner in the NHL today
Agostino: 17 goals and 41 points in 37 games, fringe NHLer/AHLer today
Archibald: 29 goals and 43 points in 37 games, fringe 3rd/4th liner in the NHL today
Wilson: 7 goals and 19 points in 31 games (regression from his previous 2 years, had 16 goals and 38 points in each of those years), fringe NHLer/AHLer today
Blueger: 10 goals and 28 points in 37 games, fringe 3rd/4th liner in the NHL today

At least to me, it seems pretty clear that production alone doesn't show who will become NHLers. They need to produce at that kind of level (30-35 points per 40 games) and bring some other elements to the table to become full time NHLers. Just judging on production alone is flawed, because Bjorkqvist has that extra stuff in his game that will make him stick better than guys like Hanowski and Agostino did.
 

UnrealMachine

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Just because I think it's important to point out, here is how the Penguins college draft picks did in their junior years from 2009-2012 (not including Bennett due to injuries):

Hanowski: 23 goals and 43 points in 39 games, has played in the DEL since 15-16
Rust: 15 goals and 34 points in 41 games, fringe 2nd/3rd liner in the NHL today
Agostino: 17 goals and 41 points in 37 games, fringe NHLer/AHLer today
Archibald: 29 goals and 43 points in 37 games, fringe 3rd/4th liner in the NHL today
Wilson: 7 goals and 19 points in 31 games (regression from his previous 2 years, had 16 goals and 38 points in each of those years), fringe NHLer/AHLer today
Blueger: 10 goals and 28 points in 37 games, fringe 3rd/4th liner in the NHL today

At least to me, it seems pretty clear that production alone doesn't show who will become NHLers. They need to produce at that kind of level (30-35 points per 40 games) and bring some other elements to the table to become full time NHLers. Just judging on production alone is flawed, because Bjorkqvist has that extra stuff in his game that will make him stick better than guys like Hanowski and Agostino did.

What are your honest expectations for Bjorkqvist at the NHL level? What would you consider to be a reasonable "best case scenario"? The comparables you pointed to (who are generally age 20 in their junior season) make a stronger case for him having limited upside at the NHL level. There aren't many players who produce at that level at age 21 and then go on to be top 6 forwards. Even 3rd line potential is a stretch. Top 9 players that came from the NCAA tend to almost always produce more than Bjorkqvist did at the same age and even more so in relation to their teammates. Feel free to demonstrate otherwise?
 
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Peat

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Have to say that I was under the impression that while high NCAA numbers mean very little, low is a fairly bad sign. The absolute best case scenario for him that I saw was always Hornqvist. Now, I don't really know. Not sure whether I'm encouraged or discouraged by the knowledge 7 of his goals were PPGs.
 

UnrealMachine

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Have to say that I was under the impression that while high NCAA numbers mean very little, low is a fairly bad sign. The absolute best case scenario for him that I saw was always Hornqvist. Now, I don't really know. Not sure whether I'm encouraged or discouraged by the knowledge 7 of his goals were PPGs.

That's kinda what I was getting at. He hasn't done anything that would lead one to believe that he could be a 30-40 point player in the NHL. I'm not saying he can't be an effective role player at the NHL level, but when he's being written about as the top prospect (pre-2019 draft) it's not a very encouraging sign for our prospect pool as a whole.
 

SHOOTANDSCORE

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How much of the season did Bjorkqvist play with a shoulder injury? That could have played a role, no?

I'm more concerned about his durability than anything.
 

Peat

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How much of the season did Bjorkqvist play with a shoulder injury? That could have played a role, no?

I'm more concerned about his durability than anything.

Late season so probably not. I see no reason to worry about durability, he hasn't missed a game for the last two seasons.
 

SHOOTANDSCORE

Eeny Meeny Miny Moe
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Late season so probably not. I see no reason to worry about durability, he hasn't missed a game for the last two seasons.
Maybe I'm thinking of Almeida .

Bjork has been injured for both of the last two Summers. They don't appear to be major issues but as with any player in his mold, you have to question if his playing style is sustainable once he starts playing against men.
 

Peat

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Maybe I'm thinking of Almeida .

Bjork has been injured for both of the last two Summers. They don't appear to be major issues but as with any player in his mold, you have to question if his playing style is sustainable once he starts playing against men.

Was he injured last end of season? Honestly can't remember that but fair enough, there's a few worries there

And yes, Almeida tore his labrnum back in the WHL vs R-U20 showcase thing which was... October? November? Played the entire season with it. If his points totals were affected by it, and that doesn't seem unlikely, that I'm extremely excited for what comes next.
 
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SHOOTANDSCORE

Eeny Meeny Miny Moe
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Was he injured last end of season? Honestly can't remember that but fair enough, there's a few worries there

And yes, Almeida tore his labrnum back in the WHL vs R-U20 showcase thing which was... October? November? Played the entire season with it. If his points totals were affected by it, and that doesn't seem unlikely, that I'm extremely excited for what comes next.
Yeah, he was held out of development camp with a "minor issue" and IIRC he was still rehabbing it around training camp. No idea what it was or when he did it though.

For sure. Something that sticks in my mind about Almeida is that the reports on his skating were all over the place when we drafted him. Maybe a coincidence but I found the similar situation with our other picks interesting. Maybe the scouting staff has something up their sleeves. Time will tell I guess.
 

Peat

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Yeah, he was held out of development camp with a "minor issue" and IIRC he was still rehabbing it around training camp. No idea what it was or when he did it though.

For sure. Something that sticks in my mind about Almeida is that the reports on his skating were all over the place when we drafted him. Maybe a coincidence but I found the similar situation with our other picks interesting. Maybe the scouting staff has something up their sleeves. Time will tell I guess.

Yeah, I remember that too. Now fairly consistent praise of his speed. I think to a certain extent they're around an age where their bodies are changing and getting awkward, and skating coaches are getting better and better at fixing that. Still don't want to be too over-confident.

Speaking of Almeida, saw a Moose Jaw fan elsewhere on the forums saying he was their best defensive forward last season, which is nice.
 

FreeBobbyFarnham

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That's kinda what I was getting at. He hasn't done anything that would lead one to believe that he could be a 30-40 point player in the NHL. I'm not saying he can't be an effective role player at the NHL level, but when he's being written about as the top prospect (pre-2019 draft) it's not a very encouraging sign for our prospect pool as a whole.
That's because he's not our top prospect and is highly overated. He's got bottom 6 potential which is not bad, but he's not even in our top 5. He's like our 10th best prospect imo.
 
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Darren McCord

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That's because he's not our top prospect and is highly overated. He's got bottom 6 potential which is not bad, but he's not even in our top 5. He's like our 10th best prospect imo.

Depends on ratings but the org views him in the top. Based on readiness and a high floor. He might not have as high of a ceiling but he’s got a very good chance of making it soon. He could impact very soon if he is a competitive as they say, push out some vanilla players like Zar and Simon.
 

Jacob

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I think the FO is thinking Bjorkqvist’s size and straight line game will translate to the NHL better than his college totals would indicate. I also don’t see it, I think he’s a bottom 6 Komarov type as a best case scenario.. but I hope they’re right.
 

Dangles78

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David Cotton (BC- Junior), Josh Wilkins (Providence - Junior) and Mitchell Chaffee (UMass - Sophomore). Those are the players in the Hockey East that scored more goals than Kasper this year.

He was also behind only Cotton in goals and goals per game vs Hockey East opponents.

Scores a Goal:15 GMS12-2-1Does Not Score a Goal:27 GMS12-10-5
Scores an Assist:13 GMS9-2-2Does Not Score an Assist:29 GMS15-10-4
Scores a Point:21 GMS16-3-2Does Not Score a Point:21 GMS8-9-4
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 

JTG

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Sep 30, 2007
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The Pens really need to make some moves to infuse some skill into the prospect pool after taking what they have in this draft. They are really getting to the point where they need to trade old for young, or they have to stop trading away draft picks and completing their roster in the offseason. I know we have to run at it while 87 and 71 are still able, but we really have to think about the supporting cast for these guys when they are 35-40. Skill is a necessity at this point.
 

JTG

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Sep 30, 2007
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Just because I think it's important to point out, here is how the Penguins college draft picks did in their junior years from 2009-2012 (not including Bennett due to injuries):

Hanowski: 23 goals and 43 points in 39 games, has played in the DEL since 15-16
Rust: 15 goals and 34 points in 41 games, fringe 2nd/3rd liner in the NHL today
Agostino: 17 goals and 41 points in 37 games, fringe NHLer/AHLer today
Archibald: 29 goals and 43 points in 37 games, fringe 3rd/4th liner in the NHL today
Wilson: 7 goals and 19 points in 31 games (regression from his previous 2 years, had 16 goals and 38 points in each of those years), fringe NHLer/AHLer today
Blueger: 10 goals and 28 points in 37 games, fringe 3rd/4th liner in the NHL today

At least to me, it seems pretty clear that production alone doesn't show who will become NHLers. They need to produce at that kind of level (30-35 points per 40 games) and bring some other elements to the table to become full time NHLers. Just judging on production alone is flawed, because Bjorkqvist has that extra stuff in his game that will make him stick better than guys like Hanowski and Agostino did.

Yeah, Hanowski especially was a one trick pony - the guy could rifle a puck. He was a shit skater, he wasn't very strong, he didn't really fill out his frame in college, and he didn't play a physical game.
 

Jacob

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It's so weird that Bellerive went undrafted to me.. I can understand him falling out of the top half of the draft for sure, but I'm looking back at hte later rounds in 2017 and there's a forward drafted out of hte Q that had 17 points in his draft year and 49 in his final junior season.. there are guys that had less points in junior-A than Bellerive had in major-junior.
 

CrosbyMalkin

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Aug 7, 2005
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The Pens really need to make some moves to infuse some skill into the prospect pool after taking what they have in this draft. They are really getting to the point where they need to trade old for young, or they have to stop trading away draft picks and completing their roster in the offseason. I know we have to run at it while 87 and 71 are still able, but we really have to think about the supporting cast for these guys when they are 35-40. Skill is a necessity at this point.

Our best chances are these next couple years . If we can still contend during the 35-40 period that is gravy. Pens need to go all in this year and next.

Also I don’t see the need like many on this board does for picks and prospects. Rutherford has done a nice job keeping the supporting cast young around the core. Just last season he added several young players to the roster while getting rid of aging soon to be UFA’s. If Rutherford can add a few players like that each year then we would need very little from the draft. For example I would trade a draft pick and a player on an expiring contract every time for a young player with term. Adding McCann 22, Pettersson 22, and Bjugstad 26 is like having 3 1st round picks develop and turn up as NHL players immediately. I bet when looking at second half of the 1st round picks those 3 are better than the majority of those types of picks. Plus you are getting players that are guaranteed compared to many picks being busts or lesser players than those 3.

Picks and prospects are just assets and if you can turn them into productive young players with term then you are getting full value for them and not just in the short term but long term also. I would agree with you if Rutherford made trades like Shero did using our 1st and 2nd round picks on rentals. That is the type of trade that mortgages the teams future. Trades like the McCann/Bjugstad deal actually lengthens that window. Rutherford traded 3 UFA players that had been playing poorly last year for 3 younger players with term. He also traded a prospect that was not able to be sent down and was not NHL ready to help a contender for a rookie defenseman that immediately helped the Pens defense and has a very good chance to be in the Pens top 4 for years.

My hope for this season is that Rutherford traded Schultz and a 1st for a young good defenseman with term/years of control. I never like losing players for nothing. Rutherford is pretty good at making sure he gets value this way.
 
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