Pittsburgh’s pick, this year or next?

chchelseII

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Sep 24, 2014
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I know in this age of immediate gratification, Pittsburgh’s pick this year ( the 25th) is attractive. It is my understanding that if the Penguins lose in the play in round, then that pick becomes next years 1st. Doesn’t it make more sense to hope they lose and get next years pick in hopes that it is better than 25th, and if significant injuries occur (Crosby/Malkin) quite a bit better than 25th? The worst that could happen is that they win it all and we end up with the 31st pick. I don’t see a very big difference between 25th and 31st in most drafts. For me it’s a no-brainer, waiting for next years pick. Opinions?
 

AKL

Danila Yurov Fan Club President
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This is a much deeper draft, and this pick will be closer to making an impact while Kaprizov, Fiala, and whoever else we acquire are still here in their prime.

Or

Next year’s pick is potentially slightly better, realistically, if it is better, won’t be much better.

Yeah we could get lucky and they could get bounced in the first round. We could get really lucky and they miss. I don’t see the latter happening, and like you said with the difference between 25 and 31, the difference between 19 and 25 isn’t that big in any given year either.

Without knowing who specifically is available, I’d take the pick now in the deep draft with the idea that the guy we get is closer to making an impact.
 

57special

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Next year PIT will have a healthy Guentzel and Dumoulin, as well as a maturing Marino, and will have the option to trade their 25th for a player in order to make the most of their Crosby/Malkin window. I don't see next year being a better bet. A bird in the hand applies here. In a deep year for forwards, I want the extra 1st sooner rather than later. A Perrault, Mysak, Lapierre, or even a Schneider of Amirov could be around at #25. I'll take that rather than wait for next year's mystery box.
 

chchelseII

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Sep 24, 2014
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This is a much deeper draft, and this pick will be closer to making an impact while Kaprizov, Fiala, and whoever else we acquire are still here in their prime.

Or

Next year’s pick is potentially slightly better, realistically, if it is better, won’t be much better.

Yeah we could get lucky and they could get bounced in the first round. We could get really lucky and they miss. I don’t see the latter happening, and like you said with the difference between 25 and 31, the difference between 19 and 25 isn’t that big in any given year either.

Without knowing who specifically is available, I’d take the pick now in the deep draft with the idea that the guy we get is closer to making an impact.

Although this is likely, a San Jose-Ottawa situation could also occur. When San Jose traded for EK, the thought it would be a lottery pick was pretty far-fetched.
 

P10p

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Although this is likely, a San Jose-Ottawa situation could also occur. When San Jose traded for EK, the thought it would be a lottery pick was pretty far-fetched.

Exactly, the pick can't get much worse, and if it does, you take the loss. Addison was the main piece of that trade.

The difference in quality from 25-31 is pretty small. Hope for next years pick and you never know with Crosby turning 33 and Malkin turning 34. If you think the maturation of Marino offsets the growing old of Crosby and Malkin, you're out of your god damn mind lol.
 

57special

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Guentzel and Dumoulin coming back healthy is huge for them. That's kind of important. And Marino was a godsend for PIT. He was like Soucy on steroids for them.

Knowing us, though, we'll win the play in round, pushing our pick back in the familiar territory of the mid/late teens. We'll lose the next round, natch, with Doobs having a double digit GAA.
 

AKL

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Exactly, the pick can't get much worse, and if it does, you take the loss. Addison was the main piece of that trade.

The difference in quality from 25-31 is pretty small. Hope for next years pick and you never know with Crosby turning 33 and Malkin turning 34. If you think the maturation of Marino offsets the growing old of Crosby and Malkin, you're out of your god damn mind lol.

Not that I necessarily disagree with your point, but do you see Crosby or Malkin falling off a cliff next year?
“Offsets the growing old of” is such a weird argument. These guys are two of the best players in the game still, and historically, when one gets injured, the team does better during that period. Hell, Crosby was injured half the season. Malkin missed 20 games and is still 14th in the league in points. Guentzel played even less than Crosby. What do you think has to happen for that pick to be a lottery pick?

I’m fine with hoping that something happens and the team doesn’t put it together, but let’s not pretend it’s the likely outcome.
 

thestonedkoala

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What concerns me is that some leagues may have a delayed or even canceled season. If not that, limiting fans as well might limit scouts. Next year will be interesting if any of those three happen. One season in the CHL/other leagues could make or break a prospect. Imagine if you had one season to scout a guy like Angelo Esposito or Martin Frk? Both guys were seen as top picks, but they tumbled after terrible seasons and their flaws revealed.
 

P10p

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Not that I necessarily disagree with your point, but do you see Crosby or Malkin falling off a cliff next year?
“Offsets the growing old of” is such a weird argument. These guys are two of the best players in the game still, and historically, when one gets injured, the team does better during that period. Hell, Crosby was injured half the season. Malkin missed 20 games and is still 14th in the league in points. Guentzel played even less than Crosby. What do you think has to happen for that pick to be a lottery pick?

I’m fine with hoping that something happens and the team doesn’t put it together, but let’s not pretend it’s the likely outcome.

Definitely understand your point! And i'm not saying we should bank on them being a bottom-5 team next year. My only point is father time is undefeated and they are really getting up there in age. Tight against the cap so not too much room to improve the roster. Three of their most important players are going to be 33, 34, and 34 by puck drop next season and were significantly injured this season. Add to that all three have also proven to be a bit injury prone over their career.

I'll take the gamble that they're not going to be a top-6 team next season with the potential for reward in that bet. And if its wrong, the loss is minimal. Even if they win the cup next year, how can you not take that gamble at a lottery pick if the potential worst case scenario is pick 31 instead of pick 25.
 

P10p

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May 15, 2012
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Please explain.

Because you're making it sound like its a 1st rounder or a 7th rounder with that comparison. Its not.

We are getting a 1st no matter what. The "bird is in our hand" regardless of if we take it this year or next year.

Maybe semantics to you, flawed logic and bad thinking to me...
 

nickschultzfan

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Jan 7, 2009
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Because you're making it sound like its a 1st rounder or a 7th rounder with that comparison. Its not.

We are getting a 1st no matter what. The "bird is in our hand" regardless of if we take it this year or next year.

Maybe semantics to you, flawed logic and bad thinking to me...
Wild scouting will have several extra months to review this draft at a known spot in 1st round and that player would be in the system 1 year earlier. That is the definition of a bird in the hand.

This thread is about gambling to see if Pens might get a higher pick in 2021. That is going for two in the bush.
 
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P10p

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Wild scouting will have several extra months to review this draft at a known spot in 1st round and that player would be in the system 1 year earlier. That is the definition of a bird in the hand.

This thread is about gambling to see if Pens might get a higher pick in 2021. That is going for two in the bush.

Again, you're trying to make this black and white. Their are multiple variables here, a very small portion of which I addressed above in a separate post.

Dumbing it down to a sentence that sounds good in your head helps no one.
 

Saga of the Elk

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2014 was considered weak and look how that turned out

Pretty much exactly like that?

Just because there happened to be Pastrnak at 25 doesn't change the fact that the latter half of every first round is far more likely to yield Goldobin and Ho-Sang and Scherbak.
 

Taylor26

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I'd rather have it this year. I've heard it's a deep 1st RD with guys available at 25 that would normally go around 15 . Not really up to us though if the pens have to win a series for us to get the pick anyways.
 
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nickschultzfan

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Jan 7, 2009
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Again, you're trying to make this black and white. Their are multiple variables here, a very small portion of which I addressed above in a separate post.

Dumbing it down to a sentence that sounds good in your head helps no one.
We want the pick this year.

You are allowed to be on the fence.
 

chchelseII

Registered User
Sep 24, 2014
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I’d rather have a slim chance of getting Raty next year, than the 25th this year.
 

DemidovSaveUs

Danila Yurov Fan Club Executive Assistant
May 2, 2018
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I’m happy either way. Personally, with the way Pittsburgh was playing at the end of the year, and the fact that if we have their pick next year it means they lost to Montreal, I’d be a little more excited to have next years pick. The lowest I can really see this years pick being is 22/23. The hit is that it’s more likely drafting a player this year will yield quicker results in terms of an NHL player. It’s worth taking into consideration.
 
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thestonedkoala

Going Dark
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BTW the NHL ignored the fact that written in the clause of the trade is that the option whether Pittsburgh keeps the pick or not expires on June 1st. So, basically they modified the trade. Wonder if the NHLPA is going to ask them about it or if it is not a big deal, it's Minnesota, why do we care sort of thing?

Zucker traded to Penguins by Wild for Galchenyuk

If Pittsburgh does not qualify for the postseason, it will have the option to instead give Minnesota its first-round pick in 2021. The option will expire at 5 p.m. ET on June 1.
 

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