Confirmed Trade: [PIT/TOR] Kasperi Kapanen, Lindgren, Aberg for 2020 1st, Hallander, Warsofsky, Rodrigues

[LeafsNation75]

Well first you said Robertson would struggle defensively and that's why he wouldn't be able to replace Kapanen, so I said Kapanen is terrible defensively. Now you're saying it's because Robertson won't be able to match his point production?

For all we know what if Robertson is placed on a line with Auston Matthews. That could be one way for him to get a lot of points.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Well first you said Robertson would struggle defensively and that's why he wouldn't be able to replace Kapanen, so I said Kapanen is terrible defensively. Now you're saying it's because Robertson won't be able to match his point production?

It was two separate thoughts, but both of which highlighting why Robertson shouldn't be seen as a replacement for Kapanen this upcoming season:

1-Robertson still isn't good defensively, so he's not going to help Toronto away from the puck.
2-Robertson, as an 18/19 year old won't replace the production Kapanen brought, so he's going to be a downgrade offensively.

 

[genk]

Good value for Kapanen. Pittsburgh overpaid but I understand why.

 

[Martin Skoula]

It was two separate thoughts, but both of which highlighting why Robertson shouldn't be seen as a replacement for Kapanen this upcoming season:

1-Robertson still isn't good defensively, so he's not going to help Toronto away from the puck.
2-Robertson, as an 18/19 year old won't replace the production Kapanen brought, so he's going to be a downgrade offensively.

I mean we got to watch them side by side, Robertson was more responsible defensively and more dangerous offensively. It's a small sample size and Robertson may or may not keep that pace up while Kapanen will probably rebound from his unimpressive playoffs, but it's not that unrealistic that Robertson is an adequate replacement, at least for the version of Kapanen we saw against Columbus.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I mean we got to watch them side by side, Robertson was more responsible defensively and more dangerous offensively. It's a small sample size and Robertson may or may not keep that pace up while Kapanen will probably rebound from his unimpressive playoffs, but it's not that unrealistic that Robertson is an adequate replacement, at least for the version of Kapanen we saw against Columbus.

Defensively versus Columbus both guys were basically at the bottom of every category for Leaf forwards for CF%, FF%, SF%, xGF%, SCF% and HDCF%, so any edge either had was basically irrelevant since both were bad. However, I'm not sure the bolded is even true. Robertson had the better FF% and SF%, but Kapanen was better in all the other categories, including the vaunted xGF%. But like I said, in the end neither played the kind of defense that should be seen as a positive in that series.

As for offensively, Robertson was consistently below Kapanen in all the various "For" stats. And that's with Kapanen being lousy.

I just think that penciling in a teenager who didn't even blow things out of the water in his first trial in the NHL to be able to replace or even upgrade on Kapanen's production is asking for trouble. I heard the same thing last off season about Kerfoot replacing Kadri with no issue, and I don't think anyone can still argue that the Leafs didn't downgrade in that situation now.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Defensively versus Columbus both guys were basically at the bottom of every category for Leaf forwards for CF%, FF%, SF%, xGF%, SCF% and HDCF%, so any edge either had was basically irrelevant since both were bad. However, I'm not sure the bolded is even true. Robertson had the better FF% and SF%, but Kapanen was better in all the other categories, including the vaunted xGF%. But like I said, in the end neither played the kind of defense that should be seen as a positive in that series.

As for offensively, Robertson was consistently below Kapanen in all the various "For" stats. And that's with Kapanen being lousy.

I just think that penciling in a teenager who didn't even blow things out of the water in his first trial in the NHL to be able to replace or even upgrade on Kapanen's production is asking for trouble. I heard the same thing last off season about Kerfoot replacing Kadri with no issue, and I don't think anyone can still argue that the Leafs didn't downgrade in that situation now.

Kapanen + Robertson: 41.7 cf% | 40.7 shots for% | even goal differential | 43.3 xGF%
Kapanen alone: 50.7 cf% | 50.0 shots for% | -4 goal differential | 46.6 xGF%
Robertson alone: 52 cf% | 63.6 shots for% | -1 goal differential | 48.5 xGF%

Both players did better apart than together, but Robertson was better in that series. Of course the sample is so small it was probably not worth doing this. Overall, I think the chances of Robertson being reasonably close in terms of overall impact to what Kapanen contributed this season is extremely high. Especially if you factor in salary

 

[Martin Skoula]

Defensively versus Columbus both guys were basically at the bottom of every category for Leaf forwards for CF%, FF%, SF%, xGF%, SCF% and HDCF%, so any edge either had was basically irrelevant since both were bad. However, I'm not sure the bolded is even true. Robertson had the better FF% and SF%, but Kapanen was better in all the other categories, including the vaunted xGF%. But like I said, in the end neither played the kind of defense that should be seen as a positive in that series.

As for offensively, Robertson was consistently below Kapanen in all the various "For" stats. And that's with Kapanen being lousy.

I just think that penciling in a teenager who didn't even blow things out of the water in his first trial in the NHL to be able to replace or even upgrade on Kapanen's production is asking for trouble. I heard the same thing last off season about Kerfoot replacing Kadri with no issue, and I don't think anyone can still argue that the Leafs didn't downgrade in that situation now.

I don't know what to tell you man, you can watch 4 games of them playing side by side and it's pretty clear which one of them has a bigger positive impact. The Kapanen we saw in this series is not hard to replace. I'm expecting him get back to being better going forward, but we're talking about replacing the guy we had this year, not who he can become in Pittsburgh.

Kerfoot was one of the bright spots of the team in the playoffs, not sure what you're talking about. Scored a few points, agitated some Columbus players, played #1PK minutes, that's pretty much what I would expect out of Kadri or whoever else my 3C is. Neither Kadri nor Kerfoot would be on the #1PP here, nor would they get more than 14-15 ES minutes.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Kapanen + Robertson: 41.7 cf% | 40.7 shots for% | even goal differential | 43.3 xGF%
Kapanen alone: 50.7 cf% | 50.0 shots for% | -4 goal differential | 46.6 xGF%
Robertson alone: 52 cf% | 63.6 shots for% | -1 goal differential | 48.5 xGF%

So basically negligible. And a 5 game sample size, to boot.

Both players did better apart than together, but Robertson was better in that series. Of course the sample is so small it was probably not worth doing this. Overall, I think the chances of Robertson being reasonably close in terms of overall impact to what Kapanen contributed this season is extremely high. Especially if you factor in salary

The bold is hard to quantify considering you and I have different opinions on what "impact" means. I'm talking about role (ie. playing on the PK) and actual production (ie. actual points, not some per/60 number or some xGF% stat).

I also think you're focusing too much on this past season alone to set the bar for Robertson. When I talk about replacing a player, I'm talking about replacing what that player brings in a typical season, not just the prior season. So unless you think Kapanen would have only scored 13 goals and 36 points next year and every year, that's not the "replace Kapanen" I'm referring to.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Kerfoot was one of the bright spots of the team in the playoffs, not sure what you're talking about. Scored a few points, agitated some Columbus players, played #1PK minutes, that's pretty much what I would expect out of Kadri or whoever else my 3C is. Neither Kadri nor Kerfoot would be on the #1PP here, nor would they get more than 14-15 ES minutes.

The talk going into this year was that Kerfoot would replace Kadri's production at 5on5 because the difference between the two was only because Kadri got PP time that Kerfoot didn't. So by that measure, Kerfoot, in the playoffs, had 1 assist in 5 games at 5on5. He also had weak underlying numbers, including an xG% of 41%.

The top two lines basically carried the Leafs' shot differential, the fourth line did well in limited minutes, while the 3rd line (with Kerfoot at center) got caved in both in terms of possession and on the score sheet.

 

[Martin Skoula]

The talk going into this year was that Kerfoot would replace Kadri's production at 5on5 because the difference between the two was only because Kadri got PP time that Kerfoot didn't. So by that measure, Kerfoot, in the playoffs, had 1 assist in 5 games at 5on5. He also had weak underlying numbers, including an xG% of 41%.

The top two lines basically carried the Leafs' shot differential, the fourth line did well in limited minutes, while the 3rd line (with Kerfoot at center) got caved in both in terms of possession and on the score sheet.

Kerfoot outscored his opposition tho, how exactly did he get caved in on the score sheet?

Also using an actually appropriate sample size, Kerfoot had 25 ES points in 65 games vs Kadri's 31 in 73 last season. This is with Kerfoot playing with a broken face for half the season. Almost like he replaced Kadri's ES offense like we said he would.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Kerfoot outscored his opposition tho, how exactly did he get caved in on the score sheet?

At 5on5? No he didn't. Unless Naturalstattrick is wrong, he was 1 GF and 3 GA for the series versus Columbus.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Might have to filter for the GF/GA category as I'm not sure the link does it automatically or defaults to sorting by FF.

 

[Martin Skoula]

At 5on5? No he didn't. Unless Naturalstattrick is wrong, he was 1 GF and 3 GA for the series versus Columbus.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Might have to filter for the GF/GA category as I'm not sure the link does it automatically or defaults to sorting by FF.

Hockey reference has him at 3 and 3 at 5on5 and 1 GF/ 0 GA while on the PK.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

The talk going into this year was that Kerfoot would replace Kadri's production at 5on5 because the difference between the two was only because Kadri got PP time that Kerfoot didn't. So by that measure, Kerfoot, in the playoffs, had 1 assist in 5 games at 5on5. He also had weak underlying numbers, including an xG% of 41%.

The top two lines basically carried the Leafs' shot differential, the fourth line did well in limited minutes, while the 3rd line (with Kerfoot at center) got caved in both in terms of possession and on the score sheet.

Kadri had 29 points at 5v5 last year, and Kerfoot had 25 this year. That's really close, especially considering the season ended early. I'm not sure why you keep beating your chest over that to be honest

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Kerfoot outscored his opposition tho, how exactly did he get caved in on the score sheet?

Also using an actually appropriate sample size, Kerfoot had 25 ES points in 65 games vs Kadri's 31 in 73 last season. This is with Kerfoot playing with a broken face for half the season. Almost like he replaced Kadri's ES offense like we said he would.

He scored the bulk of those points when he was put next to Tavares. 11 out of his 25 points at 5on5 was when he was bumped up to L2 with Tavares as his linemate, with I believe Nylander on the other wing. After that it's Kapanen (8) and Mikheyev/Nylander (7).

Kadri, by comparison, scored 18 of his 5on5 points next to Marleau and 12 next to Connor Brown. His third most production came next to Kapanen with 8 points. Kadri only "relied" on Matthews, Marner, or Tavares for 3, 4, and 2 points, respectively at 5on5.

If Kerfoot didn't get put on a line with Tavares for a stretch of games, his 5on5 production wouldn't have been close. When he was solely used as the 3C, his production was well below Kadri's.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Kadri had 29 points at 5v5 last year, and Kerfoot had 25 this year. That's really close, especially considering the season ended early. I'm not sure why you keep beating your chest over that to be honest

I'm not sure why you keep insisting it's not a downgrade to be honest.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I'm not sure why you keep insisting it's not a downgrade to be honest.

Because their 5v5 production was extremely close, as I just said? I'm also not the one who thought it was necessary to bring it up (multiple times) in the thread about Kapanen being trade to Pittsburgh. I'm just saying that if you're going to repeatedly bring up an argument from a year ago that has nothing to do with the current topic, it would reflect better on you if you actually ended up being right

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Because their 5v5 production was extremely close, as I just said? I'm also not the one who thought it was necessary to bring it up (multiple times) in the thread about Kapanen being trade to Pittsburgh. I'm just saying that if you're going to repeatedly bring up an argument from a year ago that has nothing to do with the current topic, it would reflect better on you if you actually ended up being right

See above. I showed the production when both were actually centering the 3rd line, with 3rd line linemates, not when one was bumped up next to Tavares as a winger for the 2nd line.

 

[Martin Skoula]

He scored the bulk of those points when he was put next to Tavares. 11 out of his 25 points at 5on5 was when he was bumped up to L2 with Tavares as his linemate, with I believe Nylander on the other wing. After that it's Kapanen (8) and Mikheyev/Nylander (7).

Kadri, by comparison, scored 18 of his 5on5 points next to Marleau and 12 next to Connor Brown. His third most production came next to Kapanen with 8 points. Kadri only "relied" on Matthews, Marner, or Tavares for 3, 4, and 2 points, respectively at 5on5.

If Kerfoot didn't get put on a line with Tavares for a stretch of games, his 5on5 production wouldn't have been close. When he was solely used as the 3C, his production was well below Kadri's.

And then I'll bring up Kerfoots broken face, you'll find some QoC to compare, and this will go on forever.

Our ES offense from our 3C did not fall off. Hell, Spezza scored at comparable ES rates to Kadri in his last year here. Kadri is not particularly impressive offensively with 3rd line linemates, Kerfoot is the same level of mediocre in those conditions. Most of us are satisfied with what we saw from him healthy.

 

[Jerkbait]

Kadri had 29 points at 5v5 last year, and Kerfoot had 25 this year. That's really close, especially considering the season ended early. I'm not sure why you keep beating your chest over that to be honest

Kadri is twice the player and simply killing it in the playoffs this year....this isn't even close ...

 

[seanlinden]

He scored the bulk of those points when he was put next to Tavares. 11 out of his 25 points at 5on5 was when he was bumped up to L2 with Tavares as his linemate, with I believe Nylander on the other wing. After that it's Kapanen (8) and Mikheyev/Nylander (7).

Kadri, by comparison, scored 18 of his 5on5 points next to Marleau and 12 next to Connor Brown. His third most production came next to Kapanen with 8 points. Kadri only "relied" on Matthews, Marner, or Tavares for 3, 4, and 2 points, respectively at 5on5.

If Kerfoot didn't get put on a line with Tavares for a stretch of games, his 5on5 production wouldn't have been close. When he was solely used as the 3C, his production was well below Kadri's.

This post is so in-line with the eye test it's not even funny.

Kadri has a much, much greater impact on the game at both ends of the ice. Sure, maybe he got a confidence boost from racking up points on a pretty potent powerplay, but he has the ability to drive offence in either a 2nd or 3rd line role, and has the capability of being a true shutdown/pesky centre, matching up against superstars in the league.

Kerfoot on the other hand, is just kind of "there". He can compliment a 2nd line that already has some skill/offensive drivers, he's fairly reliable at both ends of the ice... but he's not a "driver" of anything. He's a complimentary piece.

Don't get me wrong, I felt it was a reasonable deal to make at the time, especially considering the circumstances with Kadri & his suspensions, but one year later with Barrie having done basically nothing, that's a deal that the Leafs should have never made.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I just found this out I am not sure how I feel about this wing is the position we can lose the most and I was expecting Kapanen to be traded but I am not sure if this is the right deal or not.

 

[Ajaton Azer]

I think that this is a very nice trade for the Penguins. Kasperi Kapanen has proved that he is a very fast moving winger with some scoring touch, so there should be nice times for him playing next to Crosby or Malkin. Kasperi is going to score many goals before that draft pick is entering the scene.

 

[Jerkbait]

I think that this is a very nice trade for the Penguins. Kasperi Kapanen has proved that he is a very fast moving winger with some scoring touch, so there should be nice times for him playing next to Crosby or Malkin. Kasperi is going to score many goals before that draft pick is entering the scene.

Waste of a high-end pick .. this will come back to haunt the pens. Gross overpayment. Kapp will not score 20 goals next year

 

[The Winter Soldier]

See above. I showed the production when both were actually centering the 3rd line, with 3rd line linemates, not when one was bumped up next to Tavares as a winger for the 2nd line.

I agree with you. Under Dubas the Leafs are built with flaws. They used to have a solid bottom 6 of both skill and grit. Gone are Komarov, Martin, Kadri, Brown, and now Kapanen. All players that had grit. All have gone on to do well eslewhere. Avs fans and I warned Kerfoot would not be a good 5v5 producer and upgrade to Kadri, Robertson may provide the scoring left behind by Kapanen, but he is another 5'8 165lbs player on already a soft fwd group. I think they are going to miss Kapanen more than they realize. Kind of reminds me Kadri again.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I agree with you. Under Dubas the Leafs are built with flaws. They used to have a solid bottom 6 of both skill and grit. Gone are Komarov, Martin, Kadri, Brown, and now Kapanen. All players that had grit. All have gone on to do well eslewhere. Avs fans and I warned Kerfoot would not be a good 5v5 producer and upgrade to Kadri, Robertson may provide the scoring left behind by Kapanen, but he is another 5'8 165lbs player on already a soft fwd group. I think they are going to miss Kapanen more than they realize. Kind of reminds me Kadri again.

You are leaving out a few things about those players who left Toronto since Dubas left became the GM.

Mike Babcock made both Komarov and Martin healthy scratches late in the 2017-18 season and in the 2018 playoffs. So why would Dubas re-sign Komarov knowing that and he thought it was best to trade Martin. In the 2018-19 season Connor Brown was wasting away on the 4th line with just 29 points in 82 games played at a $2.1 million AAV.

The only one who Dubas should have kept was Kadri, however there was valid reasons for trading or not re-signing the others you mentioned.