Speculation: Pietrangelo's future (reports: to go to FA)

[67Blues]

I don't see how you can read it as having zero connection. It was literally his response to the question "You’ve made it clear you want to keep Alex Pietrangelo (UFA July 1) around. How do you think it’s all going to fit as far as tackling that?"

I don't see any way to interpret it other than 'we might love Petro but we aren't in the business of paying 1 guy superstar money.'

Negotiations with the help of the media.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I don't see how you can read it as having zero connection. It was literally his response to the question "You’ve made it clear you want to keep Alex Pietrangelo (UFA July 1) around. How do you think it’s all going to fit as far as tackling that?"

I don't see any way to interpret it other than 'we might love Petro but we aren't in the business of paying 1 guy superstar money.'

I wasn't clear. I was meaning that I don't think that response was a veiled message to Pietro. I think the Blues salary structure is plain to see, and Pietrangelo's camp already knows it. I took the comment I was responding to as interpreting Armstrong as making a threat to Pietro in that message, which I think is not the case. That's what I was trying to say.

I think his answer was a general philosophy answer which you can apply to the Pietro contract. Interesting that he brought up the two recent Cup finalists (St Louis and Boston) as the two best examples of this approach. He basically said he'd pay a superstar contract to a superstar, but that the Blues team didn't have any. And that there are some teams that are paying players as superstars when its not really accurate (I think he's talking about Toronto here) where the player is more of a media creation than a true superstar talent in the league. He did mention Matthews as being a superstar talent, but I wonder about Marner in this context.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Negotiations with the help of the media.

Yeah, this is what I DON'T think Armstrong is doing. He just doesn't work that way. I think it was an honest answer to a question in general terms, when he isn't willing/able to get into details of the Pietro situation (for obvious reasons) even though he was asked.

 

[Celtic Note]

It's not all that difficult to blow through $50 mil. I don't get the sense that Petro is horrible with money, but there are plenty of multi, multi millionaires who piss away their fortune quickly. That $47 mil he has made in salary turns into about $20 mil after escrow, taxes, agent, lawyer, etc. He's set for life if he isn't horrible with money, but he is far from "money is never again a consideration for generations" level of wealth.

I think he will take a modest discount to stay in St. Louis, but he is far from being in a position that $10+ mil wouldn't noticeably change his life.

There are plenty of multimillionaires that have negative net worths. Conversely, there are many middle class people with a million dollar plus net worth. our society is pretty backwards thinking when it comes to assessing those with money.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

We fans often refer to him as Pie.

How is that pronounced?

Is it like apple pie, I have to pee or take pity?

 

[SneakerPimp82]

We fans often refer to him as Pie.

How is that pronounced?

Is it like apple pie, I have to pee or take pity?

Apple Pie. But a lot of us also refer to him as Petro(like petrol, but without the L). That's my preferred name for him too.

 

[SneakerPimp82]

I wasn't clear. I was meaning that I don't think that response was a veiled message to Pietro. I think the Blues salary structure is plain to see, and Pietrangelo's camp already knows it. I took the comment I was responding to as interpreting Armstrong as making a threat to Pietro in that message, which I think is not the case. That's what I was trying to say.

I think his answer was a general philosophy answer which you can apply to the Pietro contract. Interesting that he brought up the two recent Cup finalists (St Louis and Boston) as the two best examples of this approach. He basically said he'd pay a superstar contract to a superstar, but that the Blues team didn't have any. And that there are some teams that are paying players as superstars when its not really accurate (I think he's talking about Toronto here) where the player is more of a media creation than a true superstar talent in the league. He did mention Matthews as being a superstar talent, but I wonder about Marner in this context.

The bolded exactly. He basically made the exact same salary structure comment right after the Faulk trade/extension. All the players are aware of what Army's trying to build, so it's more of a philosophical bent than a threat or veiled volley toward Pietrangelo.

 

[Brian39]

The bolded exactly. He basically made the exact same salary structure comment right after the Faulk trade/extension. All the players are aware of what Army's trying to build, so it's more of a philosophical bent than a threat or veiled volley toward Pietrangelo.

I don't think it is a threat, but it is pretty clearly a message. Messages don't have to be nefarious. Army is not saying this stuff publicly if he is willing to give Petro Doughty money.

Teams and agents come into negotiations with different assumptions/justifications/baselines. Players point to comparables and say "this is the market for a top end player. I might not be as good as Doughty or Karlsson, but the market dictates that I will get that in UFA. So now that the market has created this high water mark, I need to be at or just below it." Teams say "While that is the high water mark, you aren't that guy. We are still going to point to your closest on-ice comparable and believe your contract needs to be at or just above that."

Generally you end up landing somewhere in the middle, but Petro's representation is correct that he would get absurd offers in UFA. Quarterbacks in the NFL have done a magnificent job selling owners on their point of view. In the NFL, the cost of doing business is that you pay any average or better starting QB a top 3 salary. For QBs, it doesn't matter that you aren't a top 3 QB. What matters is that you would get that money from someone as a free agent, so your team pays it to you. We aren't quite there yet in hockey, but we are closer than we were 5 years ago. Assuming Petro's representation is doing their job, this is Army's way of saying "we're not doing that."

I don't think this is a threat or anything nefarious. But it is absolutely directed to Petro's agent.

 

[Stealth JD]

I wasn't clear. I was meaning that I don't think that response was a veiled message to Pietro. I think the Blues salary structure is plain to see, and Pietrangelo's camp already knows it. I took the comment I was responding to as interpreting Armstrong as making a threat to Pietro in that message, which I think is not the case. That's what I was trying to say.

I think his answer was a general philosophy answer which you can apply to the Pietro contract. Interesting that he brought up the two recent Cup finalists (St Louis and Boston) as the two best examples of this approach. He basically said he'd pay a superstar contract to a superstar, but that the Blues team didn't have any. And that there are some teams that are paying players as superstars when its not really accurate (I think he's talking about Toronto here) where the player is more of a media creation than a true superstar talent in the league. He did mention Matthews as being a superstar talent, but I wonder about Marner in this context.

Yeah - regardless of that soundbite with LeBrun, I could see him announcing a 7x$10M contract tomorrow, making the whole thing a moot point. (not that i think it will take that much...just that it's not off the table simply because of an interview).

I've got him coming in between $9-$9.5M x 8 years. It's not "$11M or $12M"...but that's still star money.

 

[Mike Liut]

8x8.5 is my guess. Army is probably trying to push for 8x8, but I think it’s going to take 8.5 to get it done.

 

[Blueston]

Yeah - regardless of that soundbite with LeBrun, I could see him announcing a 7x$10M contract tomorrow, making the whole thing a moot point. (not that i think it will take that much...just that it's not off the table simply because of an interview).

I've got him coming in between $9-$9.5M x 8 years. It's not "$11M or $12M"...but that's still star money.

I don't think Army goes that high. If it is 8 years it starts with an 8, not a 9.

 

[execwrite1]

8x8.5 is my guess. Army is probably trying to push for 8x8, but I think it’s going to take 8.5 to get it done.

You're probably on the mark. 6 x $8 million would be great for the Blues.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

My guess is it will ultimately end up being around 9 million per over 8 years.

 

[67Blues]

I'm betting it will be an AAV of 8.5m x 8 with the front end of the contract heavy to make his pay commensurate with the other top defenseman in the league and dropping to JBo levels at the end of the contract.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I'm betting it will be an AAV of 8.5m x 8 with the front end of the contract heavy to make his pay commensurate with the other top defenseman in the league and dropping to JBo levels at the end of the contract.

8.5 makes him the highest paid guy on the team by a lot. I think they give him max years (8) as a sign of respect, and keep the AAV lower than he could get on the market. He'll leave about a 1-1.5M below AAV from the open market, but he'll get the 8 year commitment to partially compensate. Maybe 9M. But I'll be surprised if it goes higher than that.

 

[Brian39]

You're probably on the mark. 6 x $8 million would be great for the Blues.

It would also be great for the Blues if the NHL just gave them an automatic bid into the playoffs, which is about as likely as a 6 x $8mil deal for Petro.

Petro is not taking $8 mil less than Trouba and $4 mil less than Schenn. That's just absurd.

 

[Brian39]

I'm betting it will be an AAV of 8.5m x 8 with the front end of the contract heavy to make his pay commensurate with the other top defenseman in the league and dropping to JBo levels at the end of the contract.

Karlsson is making $14.5 mil real dollars this year while Doughty, Trouba and Carlson are each making $12 mil. Ekman-Larsson is making exactly his AAV this year, but the middle of his contract sees him make $10.5 mil a year for 3 years. Subban had 2 years at $11 mil. Giving him the 2-3 years of high salary commensurate with those guys means that the lowest salary we could give him during any year of the contract would be $5+ mil. The lowest salary of a contract can't be less than 50% of the highest year's salary, so a "$12 mil but then eventually J-Bo salary" isn't quite doable.

Which brings me back to the point I have made over and over. The $8-8.5 mil range is market value for the guys we want to use as comparables on a max term deal. This is created because every team doing these deals understands that the last couple years will hurt and are backdiving the salaries. Carlson's AAV if you remove the last 2 backdiving years would be $8.667 instead of $8 mil. The AAV for Burns would be $9 mil if you ignore the last 2 backdiving years. The AAV for Ekman-Larsson would be $9.25 mil without the last 2 backdiving years.

Assuming that the Blues successful frame the negotiation around the idea that Doughty/Karlsson are a tier above Petro, the comparables we are talking about are $8 mil on max term and all but one of those were signed under a lower cap which means that $8 mil represented a higher cap percentage than 8 mil today. The $8-$8.5 mil AAV conversation is realistic if we're going max term. Unless he wants to take a huge hometown discount, you need to add about a million per year of term you remove in order to make a realistic non-max-term offer. Given the contracts we just saw for Schenn and Faulk, I don't see any reason to think Army is willing to land on a higher AAV to avoid max term.

 

[Brian39]

Yeah - regardless of that soundbite with LeBrun, I could see him announcing a 7x$10M contract tomorrow, making the whole thing a moot point. (not that i think it will take that much...just that it's not off the table simply because of an interview).

I've got him coming in between $9-$9.5M x 8 years. It's not "$11M or $12M"...but that's still star money.

I think that is close to his value on a "no discount whatsoever deal." That's $72-$76 mil in total dollars. That's the same total dollars as a $10.28-10.85 AAV on a 7 year deal. I think he gets that type of offer from a desirable location as a UFA and I'd bet he gets an $11+ mil offer from a less desirable location.

With that said, I think he is motivated to stay here and I don't think it is going to take a "no discount whatsoever" deal. I think he will ultimately be willing to leave several million dollars on the table to stay here over going to the highest bidder and the ability to give that 8th year should (hopefully) push that AAV into the $8-8.5 mil AAV range. I'd be very pleased with that contract when you look around the league at what other top D men are getting.

 

[AjaxManifesto]

Good article in the Athletic on Petro and Jodi. Both are same age, defensemen, captains, and UFA at the end of this season.

Excellent read if you have a subscription.

LeBrun: What’s a fair deal for Roman Josi and Alex...

 

[Ranksu]

Never ever gonna sub athletic or help JR.

 

[DoubleK81]

Never ever gonna sub athletic or help JR.

JR didn't write this article, and there are a ton of other writers that are on there that make it worth it.

 

[Majorityof1]

Never ever gonna sub athletic or help JR.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Never ever gonna sub athletic or help JR.

I haven’t been very impressed with JR’s stiff the past year or so. His best work is on the special interest pieces like Ari, Blais’ dad, Pietro’s nanny’s dentist, etc.

I actually don’t remember the last piece from him I read. But the reigning Cup champs get a lot of articles from a lot of great writers. LeBrun does really good work. It seems weird to single out JR from the dozens of hockey writers there. If you don’t like the Athletic, cool, but what does JR have to do with Lebrun’s article?

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

I haven’t been very impressed with JR’s stiff the past year or so. His best work is on the special interest pieces like Ari, Blais’ dad, Pietro’s nanny’s dentist, etc.

I actually don’t remember the last piece from him I read. But the reigning Cup champs get a lot of articles from a lot of great writers. LeBrun does really good work. It seems weird to single out JR from the dozens of hockey writers there. If you don’t like the Athletic, cool, but what does JR have to do with Lebrun’s article?

If Suraj was with the athletic he’d consider it

 

[Fez Whatley]

Can someone please photoshop petro onto the Tavares pajamas picture