Speculation: Pietrangelo's future (reports: to go to FA)

[MissouriMook]

I’d do 10.5 per over 5 years without thinking twice.

Agreed. And 6 x $10M gives him $60M, tying the richest deal in franchise history in total dollars.

I'd still like to see something like 7 x $9M to get that AAV down, but he'll be 37 at the end of a 7 year deal. Then I look at a guy like Steen who will be 36 in March and realize maybe 5 years isn't so bad.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

Agreed. And 6 x $10M gives him $60M, tying the richest deal in franchise history in total dollars.

I'd still like to see something like 7 x $9M to get that AAV down, but he'll be 37 at the end of a 7 year deal. Then I look at a guy like Steen who will be 36 in March and realize maybe 5 years isn't so bad.

I expect Petro to age better than Steen though. Especially given that his game relies on his hockey IQ and decision making rather than physical skills.

 

[Brian39]

If we are offering Petro a 4 year deal, it is only being offered so the team can take some heat off itself for not re-signing a franchise, top 15 NHL D man (and potentially closing your Cup window after 2 years). Unless we are giving him the highest AAV in hockey, Petro's agent should walk out the door upon receiving a 4 year offer. A $13 mil AAV would be brutal for our cap structure and is absolutely not worth the benefit of avoiding a couple bad years at the end.

I will be livid if we let Petro walk over term and not AAV. Unless we can bring in a top 10 NHL forward with the cap savings from Petro, I don't think our group is good enough to win a Cup without an elite 1-2 punch at D. Faulk and Dunn are not good enough to make a 2nd pairing elite without being paired with Parayko. The last couple years of a 7-8 year Petro deal will likely be uncomfortable. The first 2-3 years of not signing Petro will be worse. I've always been a 'long-term-view' fan, but I think it is insane to dramatically make a Cup-caliber team worse in order to potentially avoid a cap crunch in a season 5+ years away. Especially since at the moment, we currently have 1 player under contract for those seasons. By the time Petro declines to the point that he's noticeably not worth the money, the cap should be $90+ mil and we will have had ample time to plan for it. Boxing yourself into a corner for 2020-2022 is not worth it to avoid potentially being boxed into a corner in 2024 and beyond.

 

[GoldenSeal]

Moral of this story: We won the Cup, sign your damn Captain! We dont need the future, we got it now and need to keep it going. Perfect time for this "players franchise to pull a Saloman and start handing out envelopes full of cash and cars. This is the team that deserves that brand of reinforcement.

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

I initially dreaded what the trade meant for Pietro as a Blue. Upon more reflection I think I am ok with it. I don’t think the strategy of asking a player to take less money and stick around works very often but if ever there was a situation this is it. The guy can re-sign here and continue building his legendary captain status. Doug is showing that he’s going to continue stocking talent. It just could work. If it doesn’t, looks like our backup plan is in place. It isn’t an ideal backup plan, but it is at least something.

I thought Doug’s words regarding long term contracts that take defensemen into their 30s were carefully chosen and a message to the Pietrangelo camp.

 

[Spektre]

As of now, going into the 2020-21 season the Blues have 16 players signed for a cap hit of $65,594,166. If Pietrangelo costs $9,500,000 it shoots the cap to $75,094,166.

Ideally Steen and Allen are moved. If so the cap becomes $64,994,166 with 15 players signed.

Blais, Dunn, Fabbri, & Husso will need contracts. Combined they could be from 7-10 million depending on how they perform this year. Split the difference at 8.5 and the cap is $73,494,166 with 19 players. If Schenn signs for 7.5 the cap is $80,994,166.

That leaves 3 roster spots to fill. Kyrou, Kostin, and Mikkola are cheap and most likely will be on the roster. That’s a 23 man roster with Schenn & Pietrangelo signed. If the cap raises to 84 million or more it’s feasible as long as Steen and Allen are completely off the books.

I’m still kind of baffled at the Faulk trade. My first impression was it’s insurance in case Pietrangelo walks. Army and the Blues aren’t going to reveal how any negotiations have gone. If I had to bet money I’d say the Blues sign Pietrangelo and Schenn walks. The cap hits mentioned above is with a perfect scenario and that really never happens.

 

[Nathaniel Lauharn]

As of now, going into the 2020-21 season the Blues have 16 players signed for a cap hit of $65,594,166. If Pietrangelo costs $9,500,000 it shoots the cap to $75,094,166.

Ideally Steen and Allen are moved. If so the cap becomes $64,994,166 with 15 players signed.

Blais, Dunn, Fabbri, & Husso will need contracts. Combined they could be from 7-10 million depending on how they perform this year. Split the difference at 8.5 and the cap is $73,494,166 with 19 players. If Schenn signs for 7.5 the cap is $80,994,166.

That leaves 3 roster spots to fill. Kyrou, Kostin, and Mikkola are cheap and most likely will be on the roster. That’s a 23 man roster with Schenn & Pietrangelo signed. If the cap raises to 84 million or more it’s feasible as long as Steen and Allen are completely off the books.

I’m still kind of baffled at the Faulk trade. My first impression was it’s insurance in case Pietrangelo walks. Army and the Blues aren’t going to reveal how any negotiations have gone. If I had to bet money I’d say the Blues sign Pietrangelo and Schenn walks. The cap hits mentioned above is with a perfect scenario and that really never happens.

I doubt Armstrong will buy out Steen and he's unlikely to agree to a trade. Bozak would be easier to deal since his ntc is only partial with one year left. Dealing him would allow Thomas to move to center and likely allow us to re-sign Schenn. Allen's contract can help cover Petro's raise as long as Binnington keeps it up.

Deal picks and prospects to Seattle to claim Faulk. His cap hit should help cover raises to Schwartz and Thomas.

 

[Blueston]

Subban is 3rd highest paid D at 9mm. OEL is 4th highest paid D at 8.25mm. Preds are reportedly working on 7 year deal for Josi at around $8.5mm. Paying Petro north of $10mm is preposterous. We are likely looking at $8.5 to $9.5mm, depending on term.

 

[GoldenSeal]

Subban is 3rd highest paid D at 9mm. OEL is 4th highest paid D at 8.25mm. Preds are reportedly working on 7 year deal for Josi at around $8.5mm. Paying Petro north of $10mm is preposterous. We are likely looking at $8.5 to $9.5mm, depending on term.

In that list, only Pie has brought home the Cup. If Pie asks for 10m, trade Steen, Jake Allen or whoever for futures, it's that simple.

 

[Celtic Note]

Subban is 3rd highest paid D at 9mm. OEL is 4th highest paid D at 8.25mm. Preds are reportedly working on 7 year deal for Josi at around $8.5mm. Paying Petro north of $10mm is preposterous. We are likely looking at $8.5 to $9.5mm, depending on term.

What are the term lengths of those contracts though?

1st- Ek is at 11.5 per for 8 years.
2nd- Doughty is at $11 per for 8 years
PK is at 9 per for 8years, but he also signed in 2014. EK and DD both signed recently.

Petro is better than PK or at the very least on par. If PK got that contract based on today’s dollars, it is higher.

If we go 5 years for Petro, you take away 3 years of earnings. He is better than OEL and PK IMO, so I would start at 9.5 for 8 years, but probably closer to 10.5 for 5 years.

 

[BuLLeT1291]

In that list, only Pie has brought home the Cup. If Pie asks for 10m, trade Steen, Jake Allen or whoever for futures, it's that simple.

you forgot the part where neither Steen or Allen are worth even futures at this point. Chances are we would end up having to pay to get rid of them. I.e negative value.

 

[Blueston]

In that list, only Pie has brought home the Cup. If Pie asks for 10m, trade Steen, Jake Allen or whoever for futures, it's that simple.

Cup boost is why he might get $9mm. Otherwise he wouldn’t get near that at his age.

 

[Blueston]

What are the term lengths of those contracts though?

1st- Ek is at 11.5 per for 8 years.
2nd- Doughty is at $11 per for 8 years
PK is at 9 per for 8years, but he also signed in 2014. EK and DD both signed recently.

Petro is better than PK or at the very least on par. If PK got that contract based on today’s dollars, it is higher.

If we go 5 years for Petro, you take away 3 years of earnings. He is better than OEL and PK IMO, so I would start at 9.5 for 8 years, but probably closer to 10.5 for 5 years.

How old were they when they signed? How many Norris has Petro won? He is excellent player but let’s not go crazy here.

 

[simon IC]

As long as Pietrangelo gets paid more than OEL, Subban and Josi, I am ok with it. He is better than all of them.

 

[Alklha]

Well, the TSN Insider Trading segment had McKenzie saying that Pietrangelo wants to say,which isn't a surprise. Also the implication that the serious talks haven't started.

As for what is a legitimate ask from Pietrangelo... Doughty got $11m last year, which is ~$11.35 with cap inflation. A Karlsson, with all his injury issues, got $11.5m.

Pietrangelo is comfortably better than OEL and Trouba. That OEL contract is the equivelent to ~$8.5m with cap inflation, and Trouba just got $8m.

So if we're splitting the difference between them then we're talking the $9.5m-$10m range. That's a perfectly fine number to end up at in this market.

That said, there are outliers. Hedman took less than he could have got, Carlson probably could have got more, Subban got a crazy number for a deal signed five years ago. If Josi ends up signing at ~$9m, I think Armstrong points to that and that's where we end up. Just like how Pietrangelo got the same contract Karlsson did, albeit a year later, coming off his ELC.

As for term, I'm still expecting the full eight years. The Steen contract was more risky than giving Pietrangelo the full term. He just signed a significantly inferior defenseman to a seven year contract; even though Faulk is "only" 35 at the end of that deal, better players tend to stay at the top of their game longer. The concern is more about injuries, which haven't been a major issue for Pietrangelo up to this point.

 

[BadgersandBlues]

I wrote this somewhere else, but paying AP 10M AAV over 8 years is perfectly reasonable. He's a top 10 D-man and our window is open now. Elite D-men, especially those that rely on hockey sense and positioning instead of physical gifts age much more gracefully imo. If we trade/lose AP, our identity/Cup chances goes with him. Faulk cannot replace what AP does. You structure the contract to pay the majority of dollars up front (First 5ish years) then you backdive the contract in actual $$ so that if everything goes wrong, you can trade him to a rebuilding team that needs to hit the cap floor but doesn't want to pay full freight on salary. From a cap perspective, it might be a bit difficult to keep both AP and Schenn, but I think we should try. We have three contracts in Bozak, Steen, and Allen that will all be on their final years after this season. That's ~15M we can clear out with some small sweeteners/creative trades. From a selfish point of view, I want AP to be a Blue for life. I don't get sentimental about players very often, but honestly, I don't care if his game goes into the shitter, he was the captain of the only team to win a Cup in our history. I want him to be a Blue for life, I want to see his jersey in the rafters, and I want to see a statue of him outside the stadium. A bunch of stuff still has to go right for that to happen, but he has earned our loyalty.

 

[Renard]

Our forum members can't conceive of a Blues teamwithout Pietrangelo, it seems.

 

[MissouriMook]

Cup boost is why he might get $9mm. Otherwise he wouldn’t get near that at his age.

As long as Pietrangelo gets paid more than OEL, Subban and Josi, I am ok with it. He is better than all of them.

I'd prefer that he get less than all of them TBH. I'm more concerned about putting together the best team that we can. The Cup boost isn't always a thing, and I hope this negotiation looks more like the Carlson one than the Karlsson one. I think Petro is the better defender, but Carlson has put up way more points, and he clearly understood that the best way to keep winning was to allow the GM to spread the wealth and keep or attract better players. I don't expect Petro to accept less than he's worth, I just hope that winning means more to him that maxing out what will almost certainly be his last big contract.

 

[Brian39]

I doubt Armstrong will buy out Steen and he's unlikely to agree to a trade. Bozak would be easier to deal since his ntc is only partial with one year left. Dealing him would allow Thomas to move to center and likely allow us to re-sign Schenn. Allen's contract can help cover Petro's raise as long as Binnington keeps it up.

Deal picks and prospects to Seattle to claim Faulk. His cap hit should help cover raises to Schwartz and Thomas.

Steen's NTC isn't as robust in the final season of his contract. While it is still an NTC over the summer, it disappears completely on 2/1/21 (about a month before the deadline). If he doesn't agree to a trade over the summer (and continues his decline as expected) then he would almost certainly be traded to a bottom feeder at the deadline as part of a deal for a rental that is needed to plug a hole created by not having that cap space freed up over the summer. Army is a fairly loyal guy, but if he attempts to trade Steen over the summer and is met with an outright refusal by Steen, I don't think he will hesitate to trade Steen at the deadline and cause him to play the final 30 games of his career for a crappy team with no playoff hopes.

Passing him through waivers is also an option because he has a NTC and not a NMC. I doubt he gets claimed, but the prospect of finishing his career as a healthy scratch or potentially riding the bus in the AHL is likely not an appealing one. I don't think it gets to that, but my point is that his full NTC in effect in the summer of 2020 does not give him the ability to completely force the Blues' hand and play out that season on his terms. We have options if he is completely willing to waie his NTC and it would be in Steen's interest to work with Army to find a way to get him to a somewhat desirable spot.

The odds of Steen playing the final games of his career as a member of the Blues in 2021 are very, very slim. His salary drops to $3.5 mil for the final season of his contract and he should hit the 1000 game mark this season. I don't think retirement next summer is out of the question. I also think that he would hold some value as a bottom 6 guy and mentor on a young up and coming team for 2020/21. There is a decent possibility that Army could find a destination that Steen would accept. We may have to retain some, but there are usually a few competitive teams looking for that steady vet with the cap space to pay $2 mil in real dollars and a $3.3 mil cap hit. Being a bottom 6 guy on a young bubble team likely sounds more appealing than being a healthy scratch here who potentially gets waived and is almost certainly traded at the deadline to a lottery team willing to take on his salary in order to facilitate the trade for their rental.

 

[Brian39]

Our forum members can't conceive of a Blues teamwithout Pietrangelo, it seems.

I can absolutely conceive it. I can't conceive it being a strong contender to win another Cup without two defensive pairings that were each top 20 pairings in the NHL. We don't have that without Petro. Full stop. We go from being arguably the best defensive team in the NHL to being one that is simply good by losing Petro. Unless we can bring in a top 10-15 forward with the cap space we would save from letting Petro walk, the offensive group is flat out not good enough to win the Cup without an elite defensive group. Good defensive teams don't win the Cup without an elite offense. We aren't an elite offense and unless Kyrou, Kostin and Thomas all hit their absolute ceilings we don't have the assets to be an elite offense in the near future without acquiring a top 10-15 NHL forward.

Our Cup winning identity is that we completely shut down other teams at 5 on 5 by making their entire top 9 play almost exclusively against a top 15 NHL D man. Petro and Parayko combined for 43:19 of even strength time on ice per game in the playoffs and Bortz got the remaining 9:53. That means that for 81% of all even strength ice time, other teams had to contend with a top 15 NHL D man. Factoring in usage, that meant that the opponents top 6 almost never got a shift against a non-elite D man. It was literally the backbone to our Cup-winning formula: dictate at 5 on 5 by letting our two incredible top 4 pairings do their thing. That is gone without Petro and that is not really debateable.

To make up for the loss of that insane skill advantage on D, the offense needs the type of upgrade it would only get by bringing in a truly elite forward. So how are we getting that guy? Are we heaving $11 mil AAV on max term to the biggest forward UFA next summer? If so, how is that better than giving Petro less money and max term? Are we hoping that some team is willing to completely gut our prospect pool in a trade for a 90 point forward on a non-crippling contract? I can't recall too many of those trades happening in recent years.

I can conceive the team without Petro. Every iteration of it looks like a noticeable step back. I still haven't heard a single proposal that leads me to conceiving a version of the roster that is a top 5 NHL team by letting Petro walk.

 

[fishsandwichpatrol]

Wasn't the deal very frontloaded? Sounds like expansion bait to me and Faulk must have been fine with it, seeing as he's going to the defending champs.

 

[MissouriMook]

Wasn't the deal very frontloaded? Sounds like expansion bait to me and Faulk must have been fine with it, seeing as he's going to the defending champs.

That's kind of the way I see it now. We know that the cap works this year. Next year, I guess we cross our fingers but $21M-$22M for your Top 3 D when the cap is $82M-$83M should be doable. After two years, he's probably off to Seattle given that they will likely protect Petro (assuming he re-signs), Parayko and Dunn. The worst case scenario here seems to be that he is exposed in June 2021 but not claimed, meaning we have lost an unprotected forward from our group and have to continue to figure out how to get 3 righties enough minutes. At that point, we will have two seasons of experience in figuring out how to do that.

 

[Brian39]

I don't want to quote too much of the Athletic since they are behind a paywall, but there are a number of quotes by Army in JR's article about the Faulk trade that give reason to believe the intention is not to replace Petro with Faulk:

Intended usage this year: "But while we are healthy, the ability to role out Dunn, Bouw and Gunny on the left and those three guys on the right, it’s going to be three good pairs that can play against anyone."

But more importantly, Army's quote about his conversation/negotiation about an extension prior to making the trade: "Credit Justin and ultimately his agents, who understood what we were trying to accomplish,” Armstrong said. “Going in, I was quite honest that we have two high-profile (unrestricted) free agents (Alex Pietrangelo and Brayden Schenn) that our goal is to try and sign and to do that, we needed him to be understanding of the overall cap situation and he was. We’ve seen some recent contracts that he was willing to come to our group at a cap hit we could afford with an idea of trying to keep our group together moving past this season."

The fact that keeping Petro came up during their negotiation AND the immediate plan to play him on the 3rd pairing tells me that both Army and Faulk are comfortable spending a ton of money on the right side of the D in order to create what they believe will be the NHL's best defense.

Trade for Justin Faulk gives Blues' defense 'most balanced...

As always, I highly recommend signing up for the Athletic. I have my qualms about JR, but the Athletic as a whole is well worth the subscription.

 

[Bluesnatic27]

Our forum members can't conceive of a Blues teamwithout Pietrangelo, it seems.

Well for good reason. Finding a talent like Pietrangelo is incredibly difficult utilizing any avenue. He's an elite talent that's been a top-10 defenseman for close to a decade now. He's been the spine of a defensive core that has also been among the best in the league in that same amount of time. And now, he's the first captain in Blues franchise history with a Stanley Cup to his name.

So yeah, it's hard to imagine a team without one of its best players on it.

 

[Bluesnatic27]

I don't want to quote too much of the Athletic since they are behind a paywall, but there are a number of quotes by Army in JR's article about the Faulk trade that give reason to believe the intention is not to replace Petro with Faulk:

Intended usage this year: "But while we are healthy, the ability to role out Dunn, Bouw and Gunny on the left and those three guys on the right, it’s going to be three good pairs that can play against anyone."

But more importantly, Army's quote about his conversation/negotiation about an extension prior to making the trade: "Credit Justin and ultimately his agents, who understood what we were trying to accomplish,” Armstrong said. “Going in, I was quite honest that we have two high-profile (unrestricted) free agents (Alex Pietrangelo and Brayden Schenn) that our goal is to try and sign and to do that, we needed him to be understanding of the overall cap situation and he was. We’ve seen some recent contracts that he was willing to come to our group at a cap hit we could afford with an idea of trying to keep our group together moving past this season."

The fact that keeping Petro came up during their negotiation AND the immediate plan to play him on the 3rd pairing tells me that both Army and Faulk are comfortable spending a ton of money on the right side of the D in order to create what they believe will be the NHL's best defense.

Trade for Justin Faulk gives Blues' defense 'most balanced...

As always, I highly recommend signing up for the Athletic. I have my qualms about JR, but the Athletic as a whole is well worth the subscription.

Honestly, that's great to hear. Armstrong never struck me as one that would lose sight of who is important for the team's longevity. If the Blues do manage to keep Pietrangelo, Parayko, and Faulk for the foreseeable future, that will terrify other teams. Each is in a position where they can not only succeed, but thrive.