Speculation: Pietrangelo's future (reports: to go to FA)

[Stealth JD]

Our forum members can't conceive of a Blues teamwithout Pietrangelo, it seems.

Because the fears of him not living up to the extension are less troublesome than the thought of competing for more Cups in the next 5 years without him. Was anybody here dreading the decision to sign a 34-year old Al MacInnis to a 3-year deal back in '98? Or would anyone have regretted watching a 35-year old Stevens or Pronger play in St. Louis at a star-salary? In a decade when Pietrangelo retires, we'll absolutely be comparing him to guys of that stature and he'll immediately belong in the discussion, as he's had a Conn Smythe-like run similar to those others. I also don't know that the board "can't conceive" of moving on from Pietrangelo, it's probably more disbelief that they'd willingly do so, and trust that the front office will make it work even if it's at the expense of some other players having to leave town.

 

[Skin Tape Session]

Because the fears of him not living up to the extension are less troublesome than the thought of competing for more Cups in the next 5 years without him. Was anybody here dreading the decision to sign a 34-year old Al MacInnis to a 3-year deal back in '98? Or would anyone have regretted watching a 35-year old Stevens or Pronger play in St. Louis at a star-salary? In a decade when Pietrangelo retires, we'll absolutely be comparing him to guys of that stature and he'll immediately belong in the discussion, as he's had a Conn Smythe-like run similar to those others. I also don't know that the board "can't conceive" of moving on from Pietrangelo, it's probably more disbelief that they'd willingly do so, and trust that the front office will make it work even if it's at the expense of some other players having to leave town.

I don't see st Louis winning another cup anytime soon. That was lightning in a bottle. I think Petro will sign a long term extension and stay put. He's a good kid.

 

[MissouriMook]

I don't see st Louis winning another cup anytime soon.

Yeah, it's going to take at least another 8-1/2 months.

 

[Brian39]

I don't see st Louis winning another cup anytime soon. That was lightning in a bottle. I think Petro will sign a long term extension and stay put. He's a good kid.

I'm not saying the Blues are a lock to win another Cup, because there is an insane amount of randomness every year and it is insanely difficult to win each season.

Bu I vehemently disagree that it was just lightning in a bottle. OUtside of ROR having a career year and Binnington coming out of nowhere, we didn't have many huge surprise performances that are unsustainable. Our best prospect put up a 33 point rookie year. We should absolutely expect better things to come in the next 4 years. Petro had somewhere between a sub-par and average season by his standards and at 29 isn't due for regression in the near-term. Parayko was better than he was in 2017/18, but wasn't a ton better than he was in 2016/17. If that was a career year defensively, his regression shouldn't be extreme. Perron was slightly worse than the preceding season, but is pretty much the exact 2nd liner expected. Schwartz had an awful year. Schenn regressed from his career year, but was right in line with his normal level of production/play. Dunn looked great, but he looked great the year before as a rookie. Gunnar and J-Bo were good when healthy, but had injury issues. Bozak was pretty much the exact 35-40 point 3C we thought he would be. 33 goals and 68 points out of Tarasenko is on the low end of expectation if anything. And look at that, I've gone through our top 9 scorers and the entirety of what you could consider our core. I don't think it is at all unreasonable to expect one of Sundqvist, Sanford, Blais, Barby Fabbri, Kyrou to hit 30 points this year with a couple more of those guys hitting 20-25. Just like last year.

We got insanely hot to overcome the gigantic hole we dug ourselves with a different coach and bottom 5 NHL goaltending. That was lightning in a bottle, but it is unlikely this group has that bad of a start to necessitate that hot streak. Binny posted average numbers in the playoffs and we won because we dominated 5 on 5 for a 6 month window and had a goalie who wasn't allowing back breaking goals and made timely saves. That's not lightning in a bottle when we accomplished our 5 on 5 dominance through guys doing exactly the job that was expected of them (except ROR exceeding his expectation). With the addition of Faulk and possible added contributions from Thomas/Kyrou/Kostin in the next couple years, I don't think it is unreasonable that we can offset some regression from ROR.

 

[Blueston]

I'm not saying the Blues are a lock to win another Cup, because there is an insane amount of randomness every year and it is insanely difficult to win each season.

Bu I vehemently disagree that it was just lightning in a bottle. OUtside of ROR having a career year and Binnington coming out of nowhere, we didn't have many huge surprise performances that are unsustainable. Our best prospect put up a 33 point rookie year. We should absolutely expect better things to come in the next 4 years. Petro had somewhere between a sub-par and average season by his standards and at 29 isn't due for regression in the near-term. Parayko was better than he was in 2017/18, but wasn't a ton better than he was in 2016/17. If that was a career year defensively, his regression shouldn't be extreme. Perron was slightly worse than the preceding season, but is pretty much the exact 2nd liner expected. Schwartz had an awful year. Schenn regressed from his career year, but was right in line with his normal level of production/play. Dunn looked great, but he looked great the year before as a rookie. Gunnar and J-Bo were good when healthy, but had injury issues. Bozak was pretty much the exact 35-40 point 3C we thought he would be. 33 goals and 68 points out of Tarasenko is on the low end of expectation if anything. And look at that, I've gone through our top 9 scorers and the entirety of what you could consider our core. I don't think it is at all unreasonable to expect one of Sundqvist, Sanford, Blais, Barby Fabbri, Kyrou to hit 30 points this year with a couple more of those guys hitting 20-25. Just like last year.

We got insanely hot to overcome the gigantic hole we dug ourselves with a different coach and bottom 5 NHL goaltending. That was lightning in a bottle, but it is unlikely this group has that bad of a start to necessitate that hot streak. Binny posted average numbers in the playoffs and we won because we dominated 5 on 5 for a 6 month window and had a goalie who wasn't allowing back breaking goals and made timely saves. That's not lightning in a bottle when we accomplished our 5 on 5 dominance through guys doing exactly the job that was expected of them (except ROR exceeding his expectation). With the addition of Faulk and possible added contributions from Thomas/Kyrou/Kostin in the next couple years, I don't think it is unreasonable that we can offset some regression from ROR.

Well said. I don't think there is any doubt that we are better club than we were last season. There are maybe 6-8 top teams every year and any of those can win with a few breaks. We were 1 of those teams pretty much every year of Hitchcock era but didn't get the breaks (or goaltending) to win. Last year we did. This year we are again on that short list. Whether we will win this year we can't know yet, but I do think we have as good or better chance to win Cup this year than any team in the league.

 

[Brian39]

Well said. I don't think there is any doubt that we are better club than we were last season. There are maybe 6-8 top teams every year and any of those can win with a few breaks. We were 1 of those teams pretty much every year of Hitchcock era but didn't get the breaks (or goaltending) to win. Last year we did. This year we are again on that short list. Whether we will win this year we can't know yet, but I do think we have as good or better chance to win Cup this year than any team in the league.

Tampa bombed out last year, but they are still a tier above everyone else for me. I don't think Vasilevski's .856 and his astounding -6.3 GSAA through a 4 game sweep has been talked about enough. Good luck winning playoff games with that level of goaltending. When your goalie is allowing an extra goal and a half more than just an average goalie in the playoffs, that is a hell of a hole to dig out of. Vasi won the Vezina last year and has demonstrated that he can be very good in the playoffs, so I'm chalking up his play to a cold streak and not some inherent flaw destined to happen again.

But we are squarely in that 2nd tier behind Tampa in my eyes and we have the benefit of playing in what should be a weaker conference. It's pretty great that Tampa/Boston/Toronto will almost certainly finish 1-2-3 in the division again and knock each other out in those first 2 rounds. If Binny is the real deal (and by that I mean an average NHL starter) then I think the Blues are the favorites to come out of the West.

 

[Blueston]

Tampa bombed out last year, but they are still a tier above everyone else for me. I don't think Vasilevski's .856 and his astounding -6.3 GSAA through a 4 game sweep has been talked about enough. Good luck winning playoff games with that level of goaltending. When your goalie is allowing an extra goal and a half more than just an average goalie in the playoffs, that is a hell of a hole to dig out of. Vasi won the Vezina last year and has demonstrated that he can be very good in the playoffs, so I'm chalking up his play to a cold streak and not some inherent flaw destined to happen again.

But we are squarely in that 2nd tier behind Tampa in my eyes and we have the benefit of playing in what should be a weaker conference. It's pretty great that Tampa/Boston/Toronto will almost certainly finish 1-2-3 in the division again and knock each other out in those first 2 rounds. If Binny is the real deal (and by that I mean an average NHL starter) then I think the Blues are the favorites to come out of the West.

I agree that Tampa looks to be league's top team, but as you say East (especially their division) looks to be tougher than West which is why I think we have top chance to win Cup.

 

[67Blues]

CBS Sports, where I go to get all of my hockey content has the Blues finishing 4th in the Central behind Nashville, Dallas, and Colorado.

 

[The Note]

CBS Sports, where I go to get all of my hockey content has the Blues finishing 4th in the Central behind Nashville, Dallas, and Colorado.

I mean, it’s not that crazy. I think the Colorado hype train is unstoppable at this point. I think they’ll be good, but the cart has gotten out in front of the horse a bit I think. It also wouldn’t surprise me if Nashville falls a bit.

But ultimately I could see a world where the Blues finish 4th just as I can see them winning the division.

 

[simon IC]

I mean, it’s not that crazy. I think the Colorado hype train is unstoppable at this point. I think they’ll be good, but the cart has gotten out in front of the horse a bit I think. It also wouldn’t surprise me if Nashville falls a bit.

But ultimately I could see a world where the Blues finish 4th just as I can see them winning the division.

I would be quite happy to sneak into the playoffs with a wildcard spot, and surprise everyone with another long playoff run. Can you imagine the NBC announcers?

 

[67Blues]

I would be quite happy to sneak into the playoffs with a wildcard spot, and surprise everyone with another long playoff run. Can you imagine the NBC announcers?

Adding to the story of worst to first to bubble to best.

 

[Stealth JD]

I would be quite happy to sneak into the playoffs with a wildcard spot, and surprise everyone with another long playoff run. Can you imagine the NBC announcers?

Kings didn't get respect until after their 2nd Cup...I suspect the Blues will be looked at in the same manner as the '06 Hurricanes unless they can add to their accomplishments in this wide open window.

 

[Brockon]

What are the term lengths of those contracts though?

1st- Ek is at 11.5 per for 8 years.
2nd- Doughty is at $11 per for 8 years
PK is at 9 per for 8years, but he also signed in 2014. EK and DD both signed recently.

Petro is better than PK or at the very least on par. If PK got that contract based on today’s dollars, it is higher.

If we go 5 years for Petro, you take away 3 years of earnings. He is better than OEL and PK IMO, so I would start at 9.5 for 8 years, but probably closer to 10.5 for 5 years.

How old were they when they signed? How many Norris has Petro won? He is excellent player but let’s not go crazy here.

Look at the percentage of cap at the time the contracts were signed for perceived top dmen.

Karlsson - 11.5x8 @14.47%
Doughty - 11x8 @13.84%
PK - 9x8 @13.04% as RFA
Suter - 7.358x13 @12.56%
Letang - 7.25x8 @11.28%
Burns - 8x8 @10.96%
Hedman - 7.875x8 @10.79%
Byfuglien - 7.6x5 @10.41%
OEL - 8.25x8 @10.38%
Carlson - 8x8 @10.06%

I mean, any notable dman signing a UFA deal with the sole exception of Byfuglien are commanding max term. 10% of the cap is going to be the low mark on a max term deal, meaning the projected 84M cap translates to an 8.4AAV minimum. You start shortening the deal, or arguing who is better than who and that price goes up.

I don't think Petro's agent argues he on par with DD or EK, but he's certainly got a case to argue he's as important as Hedman, OEL, Buff or Letang as a key offence driver playing in all situations - pushing for ~11% for a 9.24 AAV. Subtract term, start adding. I don't see a 10AAV being out of the question on a shorter deal.

Or do we want to be paying a 37 year old 8.5AAV to play? We're not going to get it both ways... One or the other.

 

[Blueston]

Look at the percentage of cap at the time the contracts were signed for perceived top dmen.

Karlsson - 11.5x8 @14.47%
Doughty - 11x8 @13.84%
PK - 9x8 @13.04% as RFA
Suter - 7.358x13 @12.56%
Letang - 7.25x8 @11.28%
Burns - 8x8 @10.96%
Hedman - 7.875x8 @10.79%
Byfuglien - 7.6x5 @10.41%
OEL - 8.25x8 @10.38%
Carlson - 8x8 @10.06%

I mean, any notable dman signing a UFA deal with the sole exception of Byfuglien are commanding max term. 10% of the cap is going to be the low mark on a max term deal, meaning the projected 84M cap translates to an 8.4AAV minimum. You start shortening the deal, or arguing who is better than who and that price goes up.

I don't think Petro's agent argues he on par with DD or EK, but he's certainly got a case to argue he's as important as Hedman, OEL, Buff or Letang as a key offence driver playing in all situations - pushing for ~11% for a 9.24 AAV. Subtract term, start adding. I don't see a 10AAV being out of the question on a shorter deal.

Or do we want to be paying a 37 year old 8.5AAV to play? We're not going to get it both ways... One or the other.

All of his comps are 8.25 or less. No reason to pay him 10. Would be huge mistake.

 

[GoldenSeal]

I'm not saying the Blues are a lock to win another Cup, because there is an insane amount of randomness every year and it is insanely difficult to win each season.

Bu I vehemently disagree that it was just lightning in a bottle. OUtside of ROR having a career year and Binnington coming out of nowhere, we didn't have many huge surprise performances that are unsustainable. Our best prospect put up a 33 point rookie year. We should absolutely expect better things to come in the next 4 years. Petro had somewhere between a sub-par and average season by his standards and at 29 isn't due for regression in the near-term. Parayko was better than he was in 2017/18, but wasn't a ton better than he was in 2016/17. If that was a career year defensively, his regression shouldn't be extreme. Perron was slightly worse than the preceding season, but is pretty much the exact 2nd liner expected. Schwartz had an awful year. Schenn regressed from his career year, but was right in line with his normal level of production/play. Dunn looked great, but he looked great the year before as a rookie. Gunnar and J-Bo were good when healthy, but had injury issues. Bozak was pretty much the exact 35-40 point 3C we thought he would be. 33 goals and 68 points out of Tarasenko is on the low end of expectation if anything. And look at that, I've gone through our top 9 scorers and the entirety of what you could consider our core. I don't think it is at all unreasonable to expect one of Sundqvist, Sanford, Blais, Barby Fabbri, Kyrou to hit 30 points this year with a couple more of those guys hitting 20-25. Just like last year.

We got insanely hot to overcome the gigantic hole we dug ourselves with a different coach and bottom 5 NHL goaltending. That was lightning in a bottle, but it is unlikely this group has that bad of a start to necessitate that hot streak. Binny posted average numbers in the playoffs and we won because we dominated 5 on 5 for a 6 month window and had a goalie who wasn't allowing back breaking goals and made timely saves. That's not lightning in a bottle when we accomplished our 5 on 5 dominance through guys doing exactly the job that was expected of them (except ROR exceeding his expectation). With the addition of Faulk and possible added contributions from Thomas/Kyrou/Kostin in the next couple years, I don't think it is unreasonable that we can offset some regression from ROR.

My main fear at this point is the urge to try and reshuffle the deck. Beyond fixing the PP, our team works. We can do minor upgrades but we shouldn't be considering moving or losing Pie or Vlad on any day, for any price. This group along with Chief broke a 50+ year old curse. You don't nickle and dime players like Pie, you shut up and pay them. Our youth core is so damn stacked that we'll be good for a long time to come and still have resources to acquire the pieces we need... no. The pieces we -want-. And as long as Chief & Co. continue to operate at a high level with this new culture we got, they'll WANT to come here. Army needs to knock off the haggling and pay Pie like he paid Faulk. End of story.

 

[Blueston]

My main fear at this point is the urge to try and reshuffle the deck. Beyond fixing the PP, our team works. We can do minor upgrades but we shouldn't be considering moving or losing Pie or Vlad on any day, for any price. This group along with Chief broke a 50+ year old curse. You don't nickle and dime players like Pie, you shut up and pay them. Our youth core is so damn stacked that we'll be good for a long time to come and still have resources to acquire the pieces we need... no. The pieces we -want-. And as long as Chief & Co. continue to operate at a high level with this new culture we got, they'll WANT to come here. Army needs to knock off the haggling and pay Pie like he paid Faulk. End of story.

You can’t just pay guy $2mm per year more than they are worse bc you won last year. There is a cap. Or as Army says, pie is only so big. You significantly overpay Petro you get worse bc you lose other players.

 

[GoldenSeal]

You can’t just pay guy $2mm per year more than they are worse bc you won last year. There is a cap. Or as Army says, pie is only so big. You significantly overpay Petro you get worse bc you lose other players.

Lose other players like Allen and Steen? Or what about Faulk who Army actually paid 2m more per year for? You don't think our Stanley Cup Winning Captain does NOT deserve 2m more a year? I think he does and thensome.

I say cut the crap, pay Pie and be done with it. ROR is signed until Doomsday and Vlad has another what, five years on his contract? Beyond them who else is making stacks of cash that we can't shuffle around to keep Pie? Come on.

The youth group we got is our future and I think we'll be just fine, even if we paid Pie 10m. We won the Cup with this group, trying to reinvent the wheel at this point is the dumbest idea since hiring Keenan. Sign. Pay. Enjoy.

 

[Blueston]

Lose other players like Allen and Steen? Or what about Faulk who Army actually paid 2m more per year for? You don't think our Stanley Cup Winning Captain does NOT deserve 2m more a year? I think he does and thensome.

Faulks contract is market. 10.5mm for Petro is not. And Steen contract is good cautionary tale as to why you can’t overpay for past performance.

 

[GoldenSeal]

Look at the percentage of cap at the time the contracts were signed for perceived top dmen.

Karlsson - 11.5x8 @14.47%
Doughty - 11x8 @13.84%
PK - 9x8 @13.04% as RFA
Suter - 7.358x13 @12.56%
Letang - 7.25x8 @11.28%
Burns - 8x8 @10.96%
Hedman - 7.875x8 @10.79%
Byfuglien - 7.6x5 @10.41%
OEL - 8.25x8 @10.38%
Carlson - 8x8 @10.06%

I mean, any notable dman signing a UFA deal with the sole exception of Byfuglien are commanding max term. 10% of the cap is going to be the low mark on a max term deal, meaning the projected 84M cap translates to an 8.4AAV minimum. You start shortening the deal, or arguing who is better than who and that price goes up.

I don't think Petro's agent argues he on par with DD or EK, but he's certainly got a case to argue he's as important as Hedman, OEL, Buff or Letang as a key offence driver playing in all situations - pushing for ~11% for a 9.24 AAV. Subtract term, start adding. I don't see a 10AAV being out of the question on a shorter deal.

Or do we want to be paying a 37 year old 8.5AAV to play? We're not going to get it both ways... One or the other.

Of this group, how many of them have won the Cup? Take that group and that's how much Pie should make (of this list it's a very small number). If you go under that, consider yourself golden. At some point, if you want top talent, you need to pay. Pie is one of them.

 

[GoldenSeal]

Faulks contract is market. 10.5mm for Petro is not. And Steen contract is good cautionary tale as to why you can’t overpay for past performance.

Pie is legit and has been. He is a legit Elite Dman. I would absolutely ignore any stat he has under Mike "Keenan-Lite" Yeo. If we want to talk about bad contracts, Steen and Allen both have trash deals, along with how Yeo was hired. Army seems to do this from time to time.

Fact of the matter is, you got an Elite Dman who IS YOUR CAPTAIN, is in his prime and who just won you the Cup. You don't nickle and dime that, unless he's asking for 11m+, you pay and you polish the Cup on the daily. His "Past Performance" helped break the curse and I dare you to find anyone who bleeds blue who'd think the team would be better without Pie.

In fact, here's a question for you: Can you replace Pie with someone better at BELOW 10m. The answer is NO. So why not just pay him and keep this train going? We're living in the Golden Age right now, we need to strike while the iron is hot. Being cheap is what has fked over so many teams, we've had enough of that and I'm sure Stillman will pay whatever it is, to keep it going.

There are a handful of players I would jettison to pay Pie 10m and replace with the kids, who are hungry and ready to rock. Why not just do that?

 

[Blueston]

Of this group, how many of them have won the Cup? Take that group and that's how much Pie should make (of this list it's a very small number). If you go under that, consider yourself golden. At some point, if you want top talent, you need to pay. Pie is one of them.

You don’t get higher cap because you won Cup.

Still, Carlson who was younger and puts up better numbers and just coming off Cup run got 8x8. No way Petro gets close to DD money from Army.

 

[Blueston]

Pie is legit and has been. He is a legit Elite Dman. I would absolutely ignore any stat he has under Mike "Keenan-Lite" Yeo. If we want to talk about bad contracts, Steen and Allen both have trash deals, along with how Yeo was hired. Army seems to do this from time to time.

Fact of the matter is, you got an Elite Dman who IS YOUR CAPTAIN, is in his prime and who just won you the Cup. You don't nickle and dime that, unless he's asking for 11m+, you pay and you polish the Cup on the daily. His "Past Performance" helped break the curse and I dare you to find anyone who bleeds blue who'd think the team would be better without Pie.

In fact, here's a question for you: Can you replace Pie with someone better at BELOW 10m. The answer is NO. So why not just pay him and keep this train going? We're living in the Golden Age right now, we need to strike while the iron is hot. Being cheap is what has fked over so many teams, we've had enough of that and I'm sure Stillman will pay whatever it is, to keep it going.

There are a handful of players I would jettison to pay Pie 10m and replace with the kids, who are hungry and ready to rock. Why not just do that?

2 defenseman make more than $9mm. Paying him that is breaking bank for him. And would be fine for reasons you suggest. Paying him north of $10mm would be mistake.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I don't want to quote too much of the Athletic since they are behind a paywall, but there are a number of quotes by Army in JR's article about the Faulk trade that give reason to believe the intention is not to replace Petro with Faulk:

Intended usage this year: "But while we are healthy, the ability to role out Dunn, Bouw and Gunny on the left and those three guys on the right, it’s going to be three good pairs that can play against anyone."

But more importantly, Army's quote about his conversation/negotiation about an extension prior to making the trade: "Credit Justin and ultimately his agents, who understood what we were trying to accomplish,” Armstrong said. “Going in, I was quite honest that we have two high-profile (unrestricted) free agents (Alex Pietrangelo and Brayden Schenn) that our goal is to try and sign and to do that, we needed him to be understanding of the overall cap situation and he was. We’ve seen some recent contracts that he was willing to come to our group at a cap hit we could afford with an idea of trying to keep our group together moving past this season."

The fact that keeping Petro came up during their negotiation AND the immediate plan to play him on the 3rd pairing tells me that both Army and Faulk are comfortable spending a ton of money on the right side of the D in order to create what they believe will be the NHL's best defense.

Trade for Justin Faulk gives Blues' defense 'most balanced...

As always, I highly recommend signing up for the Athletic. I have my qualms about JR, but the Athletic as a whole is well worth the subscription.

I think all JR’s quotes in that article are straight from the press conference verbatim.

 

[GoldenSeal]

You don’t get higher cap because you won Cup.

Still, Carlson who was younger and puts up better numbers and just coming off Cup run got 8x8. No way Petro gets close to DD money from Army.

Cap? There are several ways to "find" at or over 3M dollars ; for instance, Schenn is a UFA next year. Take part of that money, you can pay Pie and easily be under Cap. I'm not seeing the problem here. Mind, I'm not saying pay him 11m or something wild but he should be paid unless we get someone as good or better than him and I don't think we will find someone at that price at his level unless we got a kid downstairs who develops into that years from now.

 

[Blueston]

Cap? There are several ways to "find" at or over 3M dollars ; for instance, Schenn is a UFA next year. Take part of that money, you can pay Pie and easily be under Cap. I'm not seeing the problem here. Mind, I'm not saying pay him 11m or something wild but he should be paid unless we get someone as good or better than him and I don't think we will find someone at that price at his level unless we got a kid downstairs who develops into that years from now.

Letting Schenn walk so that we can give Petro obscene contract is bad asset management. You sign Petro to reasonable contract you can sign Schenn too.