Phoenix XIXth: Nervous Breakdown

[goyotes]

That's your read of the situation. Others see numerous signs all pointing to no-deal in Glendale.



Well, some of it is fueled that way. However, you, too, are speculating just as hard as everyone else, and presumably you do *not* believe the team will relocate (for equally obvious reasons).

I have not speculated because I am only stating all the parties continue to stand by the fact they anticipate closing a deal. You are looking for "signs" to fuel your speculation. Sorry, not the same thing.

 

[Dado]

I wonder what's the "point of no return" for True North to move a team for next season.

End of March and mid-April have both been mentioned. Those dates are consistent when overlayed on the NHL season. Figuring a six-week closing process (even a slam dunk like Vinik seemed to take that long) and that backs out the "chooseday" to...well...

...now.

 

[Tommy Hawk]

Again, this all presumes that the NHL has concerns the deal will not close. If that were true, why hide that fact? Why not move on? The already have their loses covered by the CoG. They have done more than enough to avoid public backlash. The fact is, none of the parties to the transaction have given any indication the deal will not close. This is just rampant speculation fueled by many (not singling anyone out here) who want to believe the team will relocate for obvious reasons.

The NHL has to plan for contingencies like all good businesses plan. And none of the parties have given any indication this deal WILL close. Remember Reisdorf? That was a slam dunk it was going to be closed. IEH? The closing of this deal has been imminent for well over a year yet nothing. There is no public informaiton on any bond issuance by the COG and even if they are doing it through private placement the bonds would still need to be rated by Moody's or some other rating agency.

There is rampant speculation by many on here that the team is not relocating when all signs are pointing, right now, to the inability of CoG to actually close any type of deal.

I personally would like to see the franchise completely fail and the CoG lose their arses due to their arrogance, and all the NHL owners lose because of Bettman's inability to admit he and the owners made a huge mistake. But that's just me.

 

[Dado]

I have not speculated because I am only stating all the parties continue to stand by the fact they anticipate closing a deal.

Of course they do. If they didn't, there would be no room for "speculating" on whether or not the deal would close, it would be publicly dead.

To summarize: you are not speculating when you say nobody has publicly walked away from the deal - you are speculating (along with the rest of us) when you claim there is no reason to think the deal won't close.

 

[peter sullivan]

The most important deadline this saga will face (even more important than the December 31st deadline IMO) is the date by which time TNSE requires taking over ownership in order to proceed with relocating the team by next season.
.

i think the NHL will tell TNSE what their deadline is...not the other way around.

They probably have other assurances that will allow them to stay busy until then....gotta pick a name...jersey colours etc....

 

[Acesolid]

I wonder what's the "point of no return" for True North to move a team for next season.

I really wonder about that too. It mustn't be that far off, and I'm pretty sure that if the current ownership plan fails the NHL will move the team ASAP.

And by the way I love the obscure Back to the Future part 3 reference.

 

[blues10]

Chooseday is a term going around on Twitter with posters common to the Board. It represented an obsure post for a supposedly tied-in insider to efforts to have the Jets come back to Winnipeg. Lots of very hot and bothered people on twitter who are speculating that the NHL will let TSNE choose between the Phoenix or Atlanta NHL team to purchase and relocate to Winnipeg. Supposedly, today is chooseday.

In terms of rhetoric, the CoG has really been pretty quite. The Arizona Republic has had some op-ed pieces lately, but that is probably due to the fact that they finally figured out there is some local interest in the story. For those not aware, the AZ Republican follows and sends reporters to all the major sports, and major college, except for the Coyotes. And, KTAR which is the major sports and news station here, has contracts with the D-Back, Cards and Suns to broadcast their games. Guess who is left out in the cold? Media coverage of the Coyotes is terrible, but I suspect that has more to do with the media outlets long standing relationships with the other major and college sports than it really does with actual fan interest. For the AZ Repubican to actually spend as much time as it has recently on the Coyote situation, to me is a positive rather than a sign of desperation.

If there was fan interest with the Coyotes I would expect attendance to be averageing over 15 000 actual paid attendance on a nightly basis. Furthermore the rather bleak number of televesion viewers would be much higher. I don't have the TV numbers but they have been posted on these boards before. We do know the hockey team is averaging 10 000 per game this season and that is announced attendance not actual attendance. I hate to say it but I don't think fan interest is very high for the Coyotes. Take last weeks early playoff implication game vs. Nashville as an example (8236). If this market was interested in hockey this game would have been sold out. People who are interested in hockey don't need to be marketed to, they know when the games are. The AZ Republic also just bumped Cactus league baseball ahead of the Coyotes when searching for sports stories. Newspapers and media follow what interests its subscribers and viewers. Unfortunatly for the Phoenix Coyote hockey fan that doesn't include much coverage of the Coyotes.

 

[goyotes]

Of course they do. If they didn't, there would be no room for "speculating" on whether or not the deal would close, it would be publicly dead.

To summarize: you are not speculating when you say nobody has publicly walked away from the deal - you are speculating (along with the rest of us) when you claim there is no reason to think the deal won't close.

You're right. I have no room for speculating since I am willing to listen to the NHL, CoG and MH. Granted, the track-record here admits a stretch to believe what anyone says. I'm prepared to speculate as soon as one of the parties comes out and says something that leads me to conclude the deal is in trouble, without actaully coming out and saying the deal is dead. Up to this point, none of the players has said the deal is in trouble.

Happy chooseday to you anyway.

 

[RedWingsRule]

Can I get some cliffs on where were at?

 

[OthmarAmmann]

Can I get some cliffs on where were at?

about the same place as here:

http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=707334

 

[goyotes]

If there was fan interest with the Coyotes I would expect attendance to be averageing over 15 000 actual paid attendance on a nightly basis. Furthermore the rather bleak number of televesion viewers would be much higher. I don't have the TV numbers but they have been posted on these boards before. We do know the hockey team is averaging 10 000 per game this season and that is announced attendance not actual attendance. I hate to say it but I don't think fan interest is very high for the Coyotes. Take last weeks early playoff implication game vs. Nashville as an example (8236). If this market was interested in hockey this game would have been sold out. People who are interested in hockey don't need to be marketed to, they know when the games are. The AZ Republic also just bumped Cactus league baseball ahead of the Coyotes when searching for sports stories. Newspapers and media follow what interests its subscribers and viewers. Unfortunatly for the Phoenix Coyote hockey fan that doesn't include much coverage of the Coyotes.

Do you realize that from 1996 - 2001 the average paid attendance was over 15,000? The arena held around 16,500 for hockey, and more than 3,500 seats had views so obstructed you could only see one goal? That means more than 2,500 on an average night saw half a hockey game. And, for the record I was there and the numbers were real. The attendance was good, and not padded. The attendance was considerably more than the last few years in Winnipeg.

If you want to go down this road, I will write you a three page response on how the ownership totally f##### up this market. This is not the first time the team faced reloaction in its short history. Once was to threaten a new arena, which citizens voted to build for them in Scottsdale, but the prior owner got greedy with his development deal and moved the team to cotten fields 35 miles from its fan base in the East Valley.

Please, don't go there because you have absolutely no idea what your talking about. The Coyotes are a master plan of how to alienate and screw up a market from day one (selling obstructed view seats for full value and not telling the people who are buying them they are obstructed). Every other market that has lost its team, including Winnipeg, has millions of excuses and reasons why the relocation was unjustified. Phoenix, however, has no justification for why the NHL is suffering.

 

[RAgIn]

I watched the video again and I don't see where he states the bolded above. If there is one thing you can say about Bettman, he's been nothing but consistent on his stance in these ~14 years.

No Arena + No local support (in form of gov't or +++fanbase) == "probably" no NHL team in that city.

I believe, it's between the 3:30 and 4:00 mark. And I was paraphrasing.

 

[Jesus Christ Horburn]

Can I get some cliffs on where were at?

-COG is taking heat for their proposed lease with Hulsizer. They're trying to sway public opinion by releasing statements to the Arizona Republic and by convincing the Arizona Republic to publish opinion pieces supporting the lease.
-GWI is threatening to file a lawsuit against COG if they go ahead with the deal. COG is trying to paint GWI as the enemy.
-No bonds issued yet. COG claims the market is still tough.
-There's going to be a vote tonight regarding the parking agreement. While this vote will probably pass unanimously like previous votes, the possibility exists that COG may kill the deal completely because of the aforementioned issues.
-There are rumors that the NHL wants this sale to be completed once and for all in the coming weeks. Failure to close the deal by then would result in the NHL selling the team to TNSE to relocate back to Winnipeg.

 

[blues10]

Do you realize that from 1996 - 2001 the average paid attendance was over 15,000? The arena held around 16,500 for hockey, and more than 3,500 seats had views so obstructed you could only see one goal? That means more than 2,500 on an average night saw half a hockey game. And, for the record I was there and the numbers were real. The attendance was good, and not padded. The attendance was considerably more than the last few years in Winnipeg.

If you want to go down this road, I will write you a three page response on how the ownership totally f##### up this market. This is not the first time the team faced reloaction in its short history. Once was to threaten a new arena, which citizens voted to build for them in Scottsdale, but the prior owner got greedy with his development deal and moved the team to cotten fields 35 miles from its fan base in the East Valley.

Please, don't go there because you have absolutely no idea what your talking about. The Coyotes are a master plan of how to alienate and screw up a market from day one (selling obstructed view seats for full value and not telling the people who are buying them they are obstructed). Every other market that has lost its team, including Winnipeg, has millions of excuses and reasons why the relocation was unjustified. Phoenix, however, has no justification for why the NHL is suffering.

Quite the bold statement!

I don't think Winnipeg or Quebec believe it was unjustified in their teams moving.
a) old arena
b) no salary cap or revenue sharing
c) 60 cent Canadian dollar
d) no solid ownership groups interested or able to purchase the teams

Perhaps people from these cities wish Gary Bettman layed on the tracks for their teams the way he has done for the Coyotes but that would be all.

I'll choose not to debate you on this as I know it will never end. People who are interested in hockey go to hockey games regardless of the owner. Akin it to the story of the family going to a movie which has been repeated here many times. Even with the high attendance numbers that you pointed out the Coyotes lost money. End of story

 

[Killion]

Of course they do. If they didn't, there would be no room for "speculating" on whether or not the deal would close, it would be publicly dead....To summarize: you are not speculating when you say nobody has publicly walked away from the deal - you are speculating (along with the rest of us) when you claim there is no reason to think the deal won't close.

I think its fair to say the patient's in ER, prognosis 50/50 as of today. Based on logistics alone, if not resuscitated & revived, surgery completed & closed up by mid-February, a full transplant likely. I for one would find that day a very sad one. Ignoring the vital signs posted on AzCentral & elsewhere, and some of the speculation here, their & everywhere would be negligent & naive'.

 

[Dado]

-No bonds issued yet. COG claims the market is still tough.

Can't be *that* tough - I'm showing 13 new competitive issues released just today at a value of ~$400M - including one by their neighbors in Scottsdale.

EDIT: Appears there are also about $3,000M negotiated issues on tap for today, too.

 

[AllByDesign]

That's right-we're already on it I figure they'll pay a pretty penny for them movie rights...if they can pay 100 million for PARKING (for potentially their own lot), can you imagine what they'll pay for assured blockbuster movie rights?

*Cues up "We're in the money"*

As you can tell from my location, I have been in deep negotiation's with the Mayor already.

Wouldn't "choice day" make more sense? Just sayin'...

Choice day + Tuesday = Chooseday... Cheesy yes, but good for a chuckle.

I think its fair to say the patient's in ER, prognosis 50/50 as of today. Based on logistics alone, if not resuscitated & revived, surgery completed & closed up by mid-February, a full transplant likely. I for one would find that day a very sad one. Ignoring the vital signs posted on AzCentral & elsewhere, and some of the speculation here, their & everywhere would be negligent & naive'.

Somepeople would argue the patient only has the clap.

 

[cbcwpg]

no one, I repeat no one, has said the deal will not close. No media is reporting that (Canada or US). None of the parties are saying that.

What the H E "double hockey sticks" do you expect the NHL / Hulsizer / CoG to say??? That things are bad?? Take your rose colored glasses off for a second.

Even if hypathetically this deal had died months ago, we all know the NHL / CoG were going to keep thier mouths shut and drag this out for as long as possible, before word leaks. Why? Because we are talking Phoenix here. This isn't Canada where you can tell an entire city that thier team is leaving, yet they still get 11,500 average attendance when everyone and their pets know they are gone. This is Phoenix, where if it was announced today the Coyotes were leaving you would most likely get 1,000 - 3,000 people at each remaining game if you were lucky. And guess what that would do to the $25M in escrow.

I'm not saying the deal won't happen, but as well, nobody can say it will. So we speculate.

 

[OthmarAmmann]

Can't be *that* tough - I'm showing 13 new competitive issues released just today at a value of ~$400M - including one by their neighbors in Scottsdale.

EDIT: Appears there are also about $3,000M negotiated issues on tap for today, too.

Is that 30:4 ratio high by historical standards or about normal?

 

[Dado]

Is that 30:4 ratio high by historical standards or about normal?

It doesn't appear to be unusual, but I'm not an expert on this specifically so take it FWIW.

 

[Killion]

Choice day + Tuesday = Chooseday.

Nope. Pancake Tuesday. Or if your a Leafs Fan, Waffle Wednesday tomorrow.

Is that 30:4 ratio high by historical standards or about normal?

Actually, thats the ratio of gas to oil mixture Dado uses' in the tank for his Vintage Evinrude Fastwin 40 outboard.

 

[King of Arcadia]

What the H E "double hockey sticks" do you expect the NHL / Hulsizer / CoG to say??? That things are bad?? Take your rose colored glasses off for a second.

Even if hypathetically this deal had died months ago, we all know the NHL / CoG were going to keep thier mouths shut and drag this out for as long as possible, before word leaks. Why? Because we are talking Phoenix here. This isn't Canada where you can tell an entire city that thier team is leaving, yet they still get 11,500 average attendance when everyone and their pets know they are gone. This is Phoenix, where if it was announced today the Coyotes were leaving you would most likely get 1,000 - 3,000 people at each remaining game if you were lucky. And guess what that would do to the $25M in escrow.

I'm not saying the deal won't happen, but as well, nobody can say it will. So we speculate.

I agree with this. I would not expect to hear the final outcome of this saga until April.

 

[Tommy Hawk]

What the H E "double hockey sticks" do you expect the NHL / Hulsizer / CoG to say??? That things are bad?? Take your rose colored glasses off for a second.

Even if hypothetically this deal had died months ago, we all know the NHL / CoG were going to keep their mouths shut and drag this out for as long as possible, before word leaks. Why? Because we are talking Phoenix here. This isn't Canada where you can tell an entire city that their team is leaving, yet they still get 11,500 average attendance when everyone and their pets know they are gone. This is Phoenix, where if it was announced today the Coyotes were leaving you would most likely get 1,000 - 3,000 people at each remaining game if you were lucky. And guess what that would do to the $25M in escrow.

I'm not saying the deal won't happen, but as well, nobody can say it will. So we speculate.

No one had announced the IEH or Reinsdorf deal was dead until rigor mortis had already set in on the deal. Just cause you ain't heard its dead doesn't mean it isn't. Many pieces are still missing.

 

[Tommy Hawk]

Can't be *that* tough - I'm showing 13 new competitive issues released just today at a value of ~$400M - including one by their neighbors in Scottsdale.

EDIT: Appears there are also about $3,000M negotiated issues on tap for today, too.

The market is credit based so while it may not be tough for some, it may be tough for others, such as those trying to float a bond issue with generously speculated revenue projections.

 

[Dado]

Actually, thats the ratio of gas to oil mixture Dado uses' in the tank for his Vintage Evinrude Fastwin 40 outboard.

I'm more of a BigTwin guy myself, but not a bad guess at all.



Gotta get me some quality time up around Babine Lake...soon...