Phoenix CXIX: We're Just Not Executing

[mouser]

No, my question is how much other franchises have seen gate receipts grow by that amount after building a new stadium.

My back of the napkin math suggests that the Coyotes would need gate revenues to basically double in order to be viable. Is there any precedent for this?

I suspect if you had the real numbers you'd find that maybe half of the NHL teams have gate revenue of more then double Arizona's.

 

[GuelphStormer]

(2) Regarding the revaluation of the franchise (while in its current location of Glendale) this is an egregious over inflation of this teams real value. a scant two years after the league valued this franchise at $170MM ( which is a joke as well, remember, no private party was will ing to pay even $100MM for this asset in the previous years). So how does a franchise go from being practically worthless to $305MM in the course of two years? Furthermore, the arbitrary valuation was made at the time the team was still receiving $15MM per year from COG. Shouldn`t such loans be marked to the market? Absent the $225MM 20 year subsidy and the newly released and inflated Forbes valuation what was $305MM valuation should now be a fraction of that. The Coyotes as collateral for that loan could be technically in default?

that's interesting, good catch. yeah, a loss of that much guaranteed, risk-free revenue probably would affect valuation.

 

[Mightygoose]

No, my question is how much other franchises have seen gate receipts grow by that amount after building a new stadium.

My back of the napkin math suggests that the Coyotes would need gate revenues to basically double in order to be viable. Is there any precedent for this?

It's common for ticket prices to increase as well as prices for concessions, parking and other forms of income.

So whether they need to double, I'm not sure but will say there needs to a significant increase in 'money in' to keep the franchise viable.

Their current arena is only 13 years old so there is no reason why the building doesn't have the revenue capabilities for the team. The problem is there just is simply not enough business that comes in the door for the arena in generate those revenues.

Hence once Glendale cancelled the lease which had the 15 million 'money in' IA had no interest in submittig a bid to manage the arena. There's no situation where they can replace that 'money in' and then some.

By having a plan that requires state legislatation tells me there are no other municipal, county or private partners that can give them what they need. Go where the buck stops.

The biggest myth of this saga over the past 18 months: A new arena will NOT save the Arizona Coyotes. The agreement that allows enough 'money in' will.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

It's common for ticket prices to increase as well as prices for concessions, parking and other forms of income.

So weather they need to double, I'm not sure but will say there needs to a significant increase in 'money in' to keep the franchise viable.

Their current arena is only 13 years old so there is no reason why the building doesn't have the revenue capabilities for the team. The problem is there just is simply not enough business that comes in the door for the arena in generate those revenues.

Hence once Glendale cancelled the lease which had the 15 million 'money in' IA had no interest in submittig a bid to manage the arena. There's no situation where they can replace that 'money in' and then some.

By having a plan that requires state legislatation tells me there are no other municipal, county or private partners that can give them what they need. Go where the buck stops.

The biggest myth of this saga over the past 18 months: A new arena will NOT save the Arizona Coyotes. The agreement that allows enough 'money in' will.

Remember the Islander's saga with Spanos, or whoever that fraud was?

He was trying to get a new arena built so he could have the money to actually buy the franchise.

Oh if only the BoH board existing back then.

 

[Mightygoose]

Remember the Islander's saga with Spanos, or whoever that fraud was?

He was trying to get a new arena built so he could have the money to actually buy the franchise.

Oh if only the BoH board existing back then.

Yes, good days for sure!

Wasn't Ellman in a similar position from what I recalled?

His purchase coincided with the arena in CoG going up in the first place. If Glendle declined way when, would there have been another plan to buy the team and keep it in place?

Funny the city that is now being crucified by the team and the media now could have killed this megathread 7-8 years before it's time. Can't be the hero forever

 

[Fugu]

Yes, good days for sure!

Wasn't Ellman in a similar position from what I recalled?

His purchase coincided with the arena in CoG going up in the first place. If Glendle declined way when, would there have been another plan to buy the team and keep it in place?

Funny the city that is now being crucified by the team and the media now could have killed this megathread 7-8 years before it's time. Can't be the hero forever

The NHL will sell franchises to corporations, as long as they chain of command is acceptable. I don't think they would sell to a city or govt entity.

 

[Fairview]

^ Yes, all Glendale did was find a way to correct the huge error of previous council. They got out of paying the team a subsidy that amounted to 9 or 10 million a year. The team is free to stay under a reasonable agreement. The issue for The Coyotes is that reasonable is not enough for the team to survive. They have never brought in the type of cash flow to the arena district that they claim they will. Now they are going to make the same crazy projections to the state and they are hoping that the state wasn't paying attention to what happened in Glendale.

 

[Fugu]

^ Yes, all Glendale did was find a way to correct the huge error of previous council. They got out of paying the team a subsidy that amounted to 9 or 10 million a year. The team is free to stay under a reasonable agreement. The issue for The Coyotes is that reasonable is not enough for the team to survive. They have never brought in the type of cash flow to the arena district that they claim they will. Now they are going to make the same crazy projections to the state and they are hoping that the state wasn't paying attention to what happened in Glendale.

Ultimately this the NHL's mess, Bettman and the BOG who have the exec committee status.

 

[Fairview]

The whole 15 million a year payment was just so wrong. Pay IA the 15 million and with all their revenue streams they will pay back 9 or 10 million. The net difference would have been 5-6 million. That was still somewhat of a subsidy but seemingly Glendale was happy with that. But the revenue streams were so grossly inflated that there was no reasonable way to meet the target. The lease agreement did not work, but that was totally on IA for making promises that they could not keep. Fast forward to today and IA is again making a pledge to the state that the arena development will pay for itself. They are no doubt using the same over idealistic projections that they duped Glendale with. If the state was wise, they should look not at IA's "pie in the sky" projections, but rather "worse case scenarios" . If the numbers still work on a worse case basis then you can look at a partnership agreement. Of course, IA knows that anything less than their ideal projections will not look pretty to the state. They really..REALLY need the state to ignore everything that happened in Glendale.

 

[mouser]

Yes, good days for sure!

Wasn't Ellman in a similar position from what I recalled?

His purchase coincided with the arena in CoG going up in the first place. If Glendle declined way when, would there have been another plan to buy the team and keep it in place?

Funny the city that is now being crucified by the team and the media now could have killed this megathread 7-8 years before it's time. Can't be the hero forever

Nah, Ellman was(is) a real estate developer by profession. He wasn't trying to run an arena deal to fund the team--he bought the team with the purpose of using it as the anchor for a much bigger real estate project of surrounding development he would build. Owning a hockey team was secondary to him, and a contributor to poor team management under his ownership.

He did build a big chunk of Westgate, but in the end lost his ownership shares in both the team and Westgate. Keep in mind: he had a lot of his own personal wealth involved, but many partners in the project as well.

The popular narrative is that Glendale overreached with their ambitions of Westgate and other big developments, and there's a lot to support that is likely true. However, the 2006 start of the housing bubble crash and resulting recession came at a terrible timing for Westgate and other Glendale big projects. Who knows, maybe things work out better for Glendale, Westgate and Ellman if the economy issues weren't as severe during those years.

 

[Llama19]

The whole 15 million a year payment was just so wrong. Pay IA the 15 million and with all their revenue streams they will pay back 9 or 10 million. The net difference would have been 5-6 million. That was still somewhat of a subsidy but seemingly Glendale was happy with that. But the revenue streams were so grossly inflated that there was no reasonable way to meet the target. The lease agreement did not work, but that was totally on IA for making promises that they could not keep. Fast forward to today and IA is again making a pledge to the state that the arena development will pay for itself. They are no doubt using the same over idealistic projections that they duped Glendale with. If the state was wise, they should look not at IA's "pie in the sky" projections, but rather "worse case scenarios" . If the numbers still work on a worse case basis then you can look at a partnership agreement. Of course, IA knows that anything less than their ideal projections will not look pretty to the state. They really..REALLY need the state to ignore everything that happened in Glendale.

No one should ignore, nor look any further than, the Contract Compliance Review...

I do not know of any "best case scenarios" where anyone in the State Legislature would support LeBlanc's magical unicorn revenue arena plan...

 

[Fairview]

No one should ignore, nor look any further than, the Contract Compliance Review...

I do not know of any "best case scenarios" where anyone in the State Legislature would support LeBlanc's magical unicorn revenue arena plan...

Well, after witnessing Glendale approve that abomination of a lease/subsidy a few years back, I am afraid that anything is possible. I am sure that IA is looking under every rock in the state government trying desperately to find another Tyndall.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

The popular narrative is that Glendale overreached with their ambitions of Westgate and other big developments, and there's a lot to support that is likely true.

Glendale definitely overreached, but in context it wasn't the craziest thing in the world for them to do. There weren't many in Arizona who predicted the recession, and the trends at the time showed that there was the possibility of major corporate expansion in the West Valley. The recession basically killed a lot of that nascent corporate growth, although it didn't stunt suburban growth much (there's a big spur of mid- to upscale growth going on up around Lake Pleasant and Happy Valley, for instance).

Still, from what I understand, a lot of the sales pitch to Glendale was incredibly speculative, and a more discerning city council would have seen right through it. But Glendale had delusions of grandeur and now they're paying for it out the nose.

 

[Killion]

^^^ Oh yeah, they had UofP Stadium sitting there, Bidwells plans for Sportsmans Park so it is understandable how they'd have bought into Ellmans vision, backed the arena & Westgate.

 

[TheLegend]

^^^ Oh yeah, they had UofP Stadium sitting there, Bidwells plans for Sportsmans Park so it is understandable how they'd have bought into Ellmans vision, backed the arena & Westgate.

UoP came after Westgate was announced and GRA was already built. Glendale at one point even pulled themselves out of bidding for UoP.

 

[Llama19]

Arizona Coyotes Should Consider These 5 Features For New Arena

#5 - Stadium Orientation
#4 - The Food Options
#3 - Have an ASU Element
#2 - Design of the Arena Itself
#1 - The Pre-Game Productions

Source: http://howlinhockey.com/2016/12/05/arizona-coyotes-should-consider-these-5-features-for-new-arena/

 

[Killion]

UoP came after Westgate was announced and GRA was already built. Glendale at one point even pulled themselves out of bidding for UoP.

Right, but it had been a bit of a long train coming & it was felt it was going to be built on that site for some time so they decided to go for the brass ring, whole enchilada, the arena & Westgate. I never had a problem with the vision per se', just problems with the engineer in Steve Ellman. Grandiosity infected City Hall top to bottom like a virus. Spending money like they were a city of 30M rather than one of a mere 375,000. Kicking things off; NHL Lockout in the Coyotes 1st season in Glendale, several years of futility under Gretzky while the market crashes & millions upon millions of people going through mortgage meltdowns, seeing their house values crater, losing their homes... as Ive said before, if it wasnt for bad luck that franchise & the COG wouldnt have had any luck at all.

 

[Llama19]

Right, but it had been a bit of a long train coming & it was felt it was going to be built on that site for some time so they decided to go for the brass ring, whole enchilada, the arena & Westgate. I never had a problem with the vision per se', just problems with the engineer in Steve Ellman. Grandiosity infected City Hall top to bottom like a virus. Spending money like they were a city of 30M rather than one of a mere 375,000. Kicking things off; NHL Lockout in the Coyotes 1st season in Glendale, several years of futility under Gretzky while the market crashes & millions upon millions of people going through mortgage meltdowns, seeing their house values crater, losing their homes... as Ive said before, if it wasnt for bad luck that franchise & the COG wouldnt have had any luck at all.

Ahhh...the good olde days when the UoP stadium was proposed to be built but the Mesa voters 'sacked' its development...

To quote:

"The idea was to convert 650 acres at Dobson Road and Loop 202 into a massive mixed-use development. The 67,400-seat stadium, of course, would be the centerpiece. But there also would be a 600,000-square-foot convention center, at least three hotels totaling 3,000 rooms, offices, park space and two 18-hole golf courses.

Total cost: $1.8 billion."

Source: http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/arizona/article_1e251074-6bdf-11e6-af49-efe21eb8486b.html

However, the Bidwill's later got approval from the Glendale City Council to develop hotels/business/retail complexes on their Sportman's Park East and West grassy lots, yet nothing has happened...

Source: http://www.glendalestar.com/news/article_8c5bba46-dad8-11df-b4d6-001cc4c002e0.html

 

[Llama19]

Just a few more posts away from another thread title...

Phoenix CXX: LeBlanc's Arena Plan: Spending Taxpayer's Dollars

 

[The Feckless Puck]

Thread title candidates (because I don't want to break my streak):

Phoenix CXX: What's One More TIF Between Neighbors?

Phoenix CXX: We've Hit 120, Watch For Heat Stroke

Phoenix CXX: High Tempe-rature

Phoenix CXX: Desert Hockey's Most Expensive Mulligan

Phoenix CXX: Eastbound and Clowns

Phoenix CXX: The (Sun) Devil On Tempe's Shoulder

Phoenix CXX: Heading for Two Different Lotteries

Phoenix CXX: Catellus Something We Don't Know

Phoenix CXX: Glendale Friendzoned

 

[PCSPounder]

Arizona Coyotes Should Consider These 5 Features For New Arena

#5 - Stadium Orientation
#4 - The Food Options
#3 - Have an ASU Element
#2 - Design of the Arena Itself
#1 - The Pre-Game Productions

Source: http://howlinhockey.com/2016/12/05/arizona-coyotes-should-consider-these-5-features-for-new-arena/

Gracious... pre-game productions? Just take the machete to my noggin.

Paul Allen flirted with the idea of making Portland's Rose Garden/Moda Center a bit like old MacArthur Court in Eugene... then decided he wanted hockey in there after all. Then came up with something slightly better than cookie cutter design. But the question: can Earth come up with the true successor to the old Boston Garden? (That's the best comparison to Mac Court on a pro level)

Can you do that AND have the deck out to the "lake?"

(BTW... after Flyers and Devils games this week, I fly from Newark to Chicago to head to Indianapolis, and did it this way mostly to get some Portillos out of the deal. Just saying.)

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

Thread title candidates (because I don't want to break my streak):

Phoenix CXX: What's One More TIF Between Neighbors?

Phoenix CXX: We've Hit 120, Watch For Heat Stroke

Phoenix CXX: High Tempe-rature

Phoenix CXX: Desert Hockey's Most Expensive Mulligan

Phoenix CXX: Eastbound and Clowns

Phoenix CXX: The (Sun) Devil On Tempe's Shoulder

Phoenix CXX: Heading for Two Different Lotteries

Phoenix CXX: Catellus Something We Don't Know

Phoenix CXX: Glendale Friendzoned

We have a winner.

HM to Glendale Friendzoned and the Sun Devil one.

Also that list of "Priorities" from a cynical BoH perspective is hilarious. Orientation? in a building designed from the bottom up for hockey?

What the real top five should be, from least to most important

#5: Fan experience
#4: Good Box Seats
#3: Solid sponsorship potential inside
#2: A lucrative sponsorship for the arena naming rights
#1: Securing long term financing for the project, either through subsidies or... well we all know it's subsidies or bust at this point.

 

[mesamonster]

Thread title candidates (because I don't want to break my streak):

Phoenix CXX: What's One More TIF Between Neighbors?

Phoenix CXX: We've Hit 120, Watch For Heat Stroke

Phoenix CXX: High Tempe-rature

Phoenix CXX: Desert Hockey's Most Expensive Mulligan

Phoenix CXX: Eastbound and Clowns

Phoenix CXX: The (Sun) Devil On Tempe's Shoulder

Phoenix CXX: Heading for Two Different Lotteries

Phoenix CXX: Catellus Something We Don't Know

Phoenix CXX: Glendale Friendzoned

Nice work TFP, I like your first entry, for the TIF or some other public subsidy is the life blood of Tony and the clowns!

 

[Major4Boarding]

Closing this one now as I'm out for the night and next one is up

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2158729