Player Discussion Phillip Danault II: 2nd C? edition

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LastWordArmy

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That makes things pointless because then every player has a generational ceiling.

No they don't

Again, I will use the example of PK Subban. Under no circumstances in his draft year would anyone say his ceiling is a Norris trophy winning defenseman.

PK Subban is not Generational Player.

That said, he always had that Norris upside. It was slim, but he always had high, high-end offensive skill. Which is what it takes to win the Norris. He needed to work on his defense. He needed to learn to pick his spots as well.

He had a crazy development curve which elevated his ceiling as a player.

His ceiling was highly unlikely to be reached when he was drafted. There were lots of questions, but the ceiling was there.

He projected as a second pair guy, but his ceiling was higher.

His crazy development curve meant the ceiling was reached.

A player's ceiling and floor are absolutely different all the time until their progression or regression is done.
Datsyuk, Zetterberg? These guys had talent but their ceilings at the time were not what they became. If they were? They would have been the first picks by Detroit in those drafts.

Both very good, neither generational.

Generational is obvious, Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid. Not every player has that ceiling.

Their ceiling was all-star, first line players. It was unlikely they would reach it, which is why they weren't taken sooner.

Its why I'd rather take a high ceiling, talented player in the draft over a Connor Crisp or a Michael Pezetta who legit don't have that ceiling.

That is why those picks are high reward picks, Yeah, its likely they bust, but every now and then a talented player develops. Take talent, take high risk, high ceilings late in the draft.

Pezzetta and Crisp never had first line ceilings. They never had that level of skill.

I would now recommend that you write for all your prospect reports "Ceiling? Generational player. Floor? Retired Hockey Player". Just so you can use the parameters you have now set for yourself.

We do write them that way. Ceiling of a first line player, but more likely to top out as a second liner.

Let's use a more current example. Robert Thomas, during his off season, he studied the releases of the best scorers in the NHL. He overhauled his shooting and is now a more dangerous scoring threat than in his draft year. That changes his ceiling as a player, because previously, he did not show he had the scoring capacity to elevate his projection at the NHL level. What you projected him 12 months at the draft, even as a Blues scout, has now changed.

What we wrote about Thomas pre-draft

"Thomas has the skills to be an effective two-way centre at the NHL level. There is some question if he has the high end offensive ability to be a number one centre, but he could develop into a very good number two, capable of matching against top lines and playing special teams minutes."

Robert Thomas Scouting Report: 2017 NHL Draft #20 - Last Word on Sports

In other words..... He could be a number one, but there are some big questions... likely to be a number two.

Today he's answered some, not all, but some of the questions.
 

LastWordArmy

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They get shattered all the time, though... Things change quickly.

I don't think anyone penciled Weber as a future Norris contender back when he got drafted, even on the high end.

Realistic projections? No, no one should have had him as a future Norris defenceman.

Ceiling yes.

Most players never reach their ceiling.

The ceiling for Josh Brook right now is a future Norris contender. I don't expect him to reach it. A more realistic projection of what he could achieve is to be a top 4.

Similar to Subban at the same age. Now the question is the development, Subban's was crazy to the point he is the rare guy who reached his ceiling.
 

Mrb1p

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No, but to be competitive you need a C that makes their wingers better, is a threat to score and is almost always hovering around the 70 pt mark.

Most centers are playmakers, but in order to be a 1C on a team, you need to be a threat to score. Backstrom is one of the best pure passers in the league and he's not always a threat to shoot, but you have to play for that possibility, which makes him more dangerous.

It's why guys like Gomez don't last long, when you can't score from a shot, I just slack off on your shooting late, take away passing lanes and let my goalie eat you up.

If Poehling wants to raise his ceiling to be a potential 1C, he's going to have to get better at shooting the puck. Unfortunately, there's a very short list of players who have improved their shot after being drafted.

It's actually one of the things I look for in most highly rated offensive prospects. If I don't see a good NHL shot, I almost always drop them down my list.

Im not disagreeing with you. Youre right.

Though Nashville and Stlouis are probably two of the three biggest contenders and they dont have a 70 points c.
 

JianYang

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You're a true 1C if you can be the 1C of a cup winner... Turris isn't it. Ideally he's a #2, or a solid #1B. He's 1B in Nashville and they have other strengths that can make up for the fact they don't have big offensive superstars like most team that go on to win the cup.

Turris is an excellent #2. Johansen is a cup capable #1 if he's on the top of his game. Bonino is also a nice piece to have in the bottom 6.

It's not a team that lacks superstars IMO. Rather, they have certain forwards who probably don't get the recognition they deserve.

The prerequisite to building a cup contender is a top end #1 center (which Johansen showed last playoff), a high end dman (they have at least two), and a competent goalie (which might be the only question mark). Then, you build around that as best as you can, and Nashville has done it as well as anyone.
 

Mrb1p

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Turris is an excellent #2. Johansen is a cup capable #1 if he's on the top of his game. Bonino is also a nice piece to have in the bottom 6.

It's not a team that lacks superstars IMO. Rather, they have certain forwards who probably don't get the recognition they deserve.

The prerequisite to building a cup contender is a top end #1 center (which Johansen showed last playoff), a high end dman (they have at least two), and a competent goalie (which might be the only question mark). Then, you build around that as best as you can, and Nashville has done it as well as anyone.

Theres no prerequisite to a winning team aside from depth. Calling Johansen a top end 1C and calling Turris a 2C is extremely funny since theyre basically identical in their production, and at this point Turris is playing better on Nashville.
 

LastWordArmy

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Both are as much 70 points Cs as Galchenyuk is a 30g ppg C. Johansen has 33 goals in his last 195 games... Call him a playmaker all you want but thats Desharnais level of bad.

By that standard, the Blackhawks won 3 cups without a consistent 70 pt C, seeing as Toews has only done it once in his career.

You'd be hard pressed to make the case that he hasn't been a #1 C.
 

Mrb1p

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By that standard, the Blackhawks won 3 cups without a consistent 70 pt C, seeing as Toews has only done it once in his career.

You'd be hard pressed to make the case that he isn't a #1 C.

Well, im not Toews's biggest fan but he does have 3 PPG season and is a much better defensive contributor than Johansen.
 

JianYang

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Theres no prerequisite to a winning team aside from depth. Calling Johansen a top end 1C and calling Turris a 2C is extremely funny since theyre basically identical in their production, and at this point Turris is playing better on Nashville.

Depth is important, but not if you don't have the cornerstones in place. Johansen sold me last playoffs.

Overall, I think he's somewhat enigmatic, but I was impressed with his performance against toews and then getzlaf/kesler thereafter during the playoffs. He can succeed when checking gets tight and turris will be a benefactor as well since teams will likely target Johansen first and foremost.
 

Andrei79

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Jan 25, 2013
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Danault RFA at the end of this season. What salary and term does he rate?

Don't know, but I wish in retrospect we had signed Subban, Pacioretty and Price for 8 years.

He's not near the level of these players, but hes a very good player who can play on any line and any position. He's more Shaw than what they told us Shaw would be, so I'm hoping for 6+ years, but I can't say what fair market value is. I would be very surprised to see him between 4 and 4.5, really disappointed if he gets 6, so I would think he gets around 5-6 years for between 4.5 and 5.8M.
 

Adam Michaels

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Danault RFA at the end of this season. What salary and term does he rate?

Cogliano just signed for 3 years at 3.25M and in the last four seasons, he's only scored more than 40 points once (42). Since then, he's had seasons of 29, 32, and 35 points respectively and has played all 82 games each of those seasons. So far this year in 43 games, he has 18 points to Danault's 22 in 42 games.

If they can sign Danault to 3.25M, I'd be happy. And it would be the Bergevin standard of 6 years.
 
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Hope he's okay. Really good middle six forward to have around, I want him to have a long and succesfull career in Montréal.
 

Habs100

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Danault RFA at the end of this season. What salary and term does he rate?

Somewhere between 3, maybe 3.5, and 4.5 million AAV. He's clearly better than Eller who got 3.5 many years ago, i.e. when 3.5 was a lower percentage of the salary cap. But then again that was after Eller had some like 30 points in 48 games during the lockout shortened season.
 

Adam Michaels

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Il say 4 years at 3.5

He's getting more than 4 years for sure. Bergevin likes his 6-year deals. Aside from Subban and Price this time around, he hasn't given out any deals 7 years or more. If it's a player he believes is part of the core moving forward, he usually commits 6 years to them.

- Pacioretty - 6 years @ 4.5M
- Price - 6 years @ 6.5M
- Gallagher - 6 years @ 3.75M
- Petry - 6 years @ 5.5M
- Shaw - 6 years @ 3.9M
- Drouin - 6 years @ 5.5M
 

Tyson

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Saw highlight of Ian Cole taking a shot directly in the mouth. Teeth were visibly flying. Sickening. Once upon a time no one wore goalie masks or helmets. Is there a time coming where players will be wearing full cages? Never say never I think.
 
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