OT: Phillies: We Might Just Get A Little Stupid Spending: Offseason Part One

[LegionOfDoom91]

Eskin is such a curmudgeon about every single team in this city except for the hand that feeds (the Eagles).

 

[Hiesenberg]

Harper would be #1 in jersey sales for probably 5 years straight

 

[Jack Straw]

Tell you what, if they sign Harper I will be ordering a jersey the very next day. Not as high on Machado. 1000000% want him on this team but Harper is a perennial MVP guy and I don't think we ever really had that here. Utley probably should have won at least one and we had Howard and JRoll, but Harper is a guy that could be up there every year. Someone that will draw people to the park (and to buy jerseys). Machado will help the team win, Harper will put butts in the seats.

Mike Schmidt says “hi”

 

[BrindamoursNose]

Boras met with the Phillies

Harper will be there on Saturday.

Harper knows everything about the Phils organization, this meeting is a formality.

I meant Harper has never met with the Phillies, but like I had said above: I'm not ready to believe Eskin just because he said so. Just throwing it out there because he is at least more credible than the random dude on Twitter.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

Eskin is such a curmudgeon about every single team in this city except for the hand that feeds (the Eagles).

Won't argue that.

 

[The Madrigal]

I meant Harper has never met with the Phillies, but like I had said above: I'm not ready to believe Eskin just because he said so. Just throwing it out there because he is at least more credible than the random dude on Twitter.

 

[wankstifier]

Well I guess Trout/Betts would be like McDavid.

However Harper is the biggest name in the MLB. Trout might be the best player, but Harper is more well known and more marketable.

Machado probably a little less, but arguably a Top 3 3rd basemen.

Hard to say, but picture it as 2 Top 5 players in the NHL available.

I still wouldn’t put Betts in the same class as Trout.

Each season since entering the league, Trout has almost averaged Betts’ career high season WAR. Betts is an outstanding player, but Harper has had years like his. IIRC, Harper was on track for a pretty ridiculous season until his injury last year.

If Betts and Trout were both free agents, my clear priority would be to sign the latter of the two. Betts’ value seems to draw more from defense and speed, which tend to break down with age. Trout has the better bat.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Mike Schmidt says “hi”

Lol. Oops. Forgot about him. Even Mike Schmidt wasn't really that guy though. He won back to back years and then some time later in his career, but I don't think he was a top three guy more than that. Harper already has one and probably would have another if not for injury and he will likely be a finalist for the foreseeable future barring injury.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Schmidt had 10 top 10 MVP finishes including those 3 wins. Harper has only had 1 top 10 MVP finish to this point the same year he won it.

Harper is obviously young still & has a lot to be written about his career but while a pretty good player I don’t think he’s Trout type talent where he’s a shoe in for an MVP or runner up every year.

 

[XDevilBoiX]

Nightengale says Phillies looking at 10+ years and and I think $350 million. Yanks, Dodgers, and Cubs out.

If it’s 10y $350mil, Harper sets both records and hard to see him turn it down unless Nats match. They would be paying luxury tax.

 

[OrangeAndBlackMetal]

Howard Eskin on 94WIP said that the Tweet from Kevin saying Harper is signing on Saturday is nonsense -- Phillies have never met face to face with the guy before even and Boras has a track record of stretching players well into Spring.

We'll see. I know we'll get one of these two, so it's just a matter of time.

Eskin is a moron

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Schmidt had 10 top 10 MVP finishes including those 3 wins. Harper has only had 1 top 10 MVP finish to this point the same year he won it.

We'll see. Pretty Sure Schmidt also played more than a decade more than Harper (and by my count he has 9 top 10 finishes not 10). At the same age in their careers Harper has one more MVP title and the same amount of top ten finishes than Schmidt did. I would bet money that if Harper is healthy he finishes in the top ten for MVP voting 9/10 seasons he is here (assuming it is a ten year deal).

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Schmidt had 10 top 10 MVP finishes including those 3 wins. Harper has only had 1 top 10 MVP finish to this point the same year he won it.

He's the best 3B ever, the best 7 year peak 3B ever, and a top 20 position player of all-time. Harper's got 2 seasons above a 137 wRC+. It's ludicrous to even have the discussion right now.

He's trending to be a guy who's sneakily an accumulator with one random explosion of a year. Of course he has the talent to do anything, but it is what it is so far.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

We'll see. Pretty Sure Schmidt also played more than a decade more than Harper (and by my count he has 9 top 10 finishes not 10). At the same age in their careers Harper has one more MVP title and the same amount of top ten finishes than Schmidt did. I would bet money that if Harper is healthy he finishes in the top ten for MVP voting 9/10 seasons he is here (assuming it is a ten year deal).

That's one way to frame "He won an MVP and other than that has been pretty good."

You would be throwing money away. The list of guys who have is something like Musial, Mays, Pujols and that's it. DiMaggio did if you lop off the war years. Bonds didn't do it. Neither did Williams or Gehrig or ARod, etc etc. Trout is also on that pace.

In good news, though, you might get your Greedy Williams wish. He's not even a lock for the first these days.

 

[baudib1]

For a large portion of baseball history, there wasn't an MVP award or you weren't eligible to win it if you had already won one.

If you look at Harper anytime from ages 19-22, you'd see a player who has a real chance to be Mickey Mantle, Mike Schmidt.

It's somewhat clear that he's not going to achieve that level of greatness. Since 22, he's suffered from some year-to-year inconsistency and some injuries. I don't think we have a firm handle on what a typical Bryce Harper year looks like yet.

However, it's a pretty safe bet he's going to be a 30 HR, 100 walk guy for most of his career. That would make him a Reggie Jackson type, with a chance to be maybe a Frank Robinson. The nice thing is even if he doesn't age well (which I don't think will happen) he'll never be a total sipher like Ryan Howard.

I'd guess Harper is about 70% to be a Hall of Famer.

 

[The Madrigal]

For a large portion of baseball history, there wasn't an MVP award or you weren't eligible to win it if you had already won one.

If you look at Harper anytime from ages 19-22, you'd see a player who has a real chance to be Mickey Mantle, Mike Schmidt.

It's somewhat clear that he's not going to achieve that level of greatness. Since 22, he's suffered from some year-to-year inconsistency and some injuries. I don't think we have a firm handle on what a typical Bryce Harper year looks like yet.

However, it's a pretty safe bet he's going to be a 30 HR, 100 walk guy for most of his career. That would make him a Reggie Jackson type, with a chance to be maybe a Frank Robinson. The nice thing is even if he doesn't age well (which I don't think will happen) he'll never be a total sipher like Ryan Howard.

I'd guess Harper is about 70% to be a Hall of Famer.

I agree. There is still serious upside with Harper. Either way, put him in CBP and he's a perennial 30-40 HR, 100 RBI, 100 walk guy.

 

[Rebels57]

Lol. Oops. Forgot about him. Even Mike Schmidt wasn't really that guy though. He won back to back years and then some time later in his career, but I don't think he was a top three guy more than that. Harper already has one and probably would have another if not for injury and he will likely be a finalist for the foreseeable future barring injury.

Bro, he's arguably the greatest 3B to ever play the game...

 

[Adam Warlock]

My hopes have been high on getting both guys. I always felt that was the splash that they really needed make to be a top tier team. All the buzz in the last 48 hours really makes it sound like its a real possibility.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

For a large portion of baseball history, there wasn't an MVP award or you weren't eligible to win it if you had already won one.

All of which had gone away by the time the BBWA started their version in 1931 and all of which were in leagues with far, far less teams than today. Top 10 in 9/10 years in leagues this size is an absurdly small chance.

If you look at Harper anytime from ages 19-22, you'd see a player who has a real chance to be Mickey Mantle, Mike Schmidt.

It's somewhat clear that he's not going to achieve that level of greatness. Since 22, he's suffered from some year-to-year inconsistency and some injuries. I don't think we have a firm handle on what a typical Bryce Harper year looks like yet.

However, it's a pretty safe bet he's going to be a 30 HR, 100 walk guy for most of his career. That would make him a Reggie Jackson type, with a chance to be maybe a Frank Robinson. The nice thing is even if he doesn't age well (which I don't think will happen) he'll never be a total sipher like Ryan Howard.

I'd guess Harper is about 70% to be a Hall of Famer.

Mostly agreed. He's an excellent bet to be a very good player for the length of his deal and that's all he needs to be. I only objected to the idea of a trajectory that, while possible, is extremely unlikely.

I would guess that if you think they're going to assert some shifting rules, you have to give him a bump as well.

 

[usahockey22flyers]

If they get both, what should we expect as per changes of how the team operates?

Higher ticket prices?

 

[The Madrigal]

If they get both, what should we expect as per changes of how the team operates?

Higher ticket prices?

More wins, more relevance, more excitement.

 

[baudib1]

Yeah, I don't even think I'd put money on Trout being 9/10 in top 10 for the next 10. My only point about the history of the award is that, without doing too much work on it, I'd guess that Ty Cobb or Tris Speaker could have done 9/10. Maybe Mathewson too.

There have been guys who were at the same spot as Harper at age 25 -- the new Reggie Jackson -- and flamed out, like Canseco and Strawberry, and different types like Ruben Sierra and Don Mattingly. Of those guys, I would have given Strawberry the 10-year "max" deal, given Sierra a somewhat lesser deal, given Mattingly a somewhat shorter deal, and told Canseco to f*** off.

I like Harper better than all of those guys basically.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Yeah, I don't even think I'd put money on Trout being 9/10 in top 10 for the next 10. My only point about the history of the award is that, without doing too much work on it, I'd guess that Ty Cobb or Tris Speaker could have done 9/10. Maybe Mathewson too.

Yeah, it probably adds Cobb, Ruth, Anson, Wagner, and maybe Hornsby. Pitchers were viewed differently back then, so I don't feel like I have a good enough grasp on voters of the time to argue it either way for Johnson/Mathewson/Young.

Possibly Speaker too, as you said, but he's got a 12th place finish smack dab in the middle of his career, so I would call that less likely.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

That's one way to frame "He won an MVP and other than that has been pretty good."

You would be throwing money away. The list of guys who have is something like Musial, Mays, Pujols and that's it. DiMaggio did if you lop off the war years. Bonds didn't do it. Neither did Williams or Gehrig or ARod, etc etc. Trout is also on that pace.

In good news, though, you might get your Greedy Williams wish. He's not even a lock for the first these days.

He's only 26. When Schmidt was 26 he had fewer MVPs and the same amount of top ten finishes. I'd still take the bet. Could be wrong, that's fine. If Harper stays healthy I think he does it. Same thing with Trout.

What happened to my boy Greedy that he is falling?????

Bro, he's arguably the greatest 3B to ever play the game...

Absolutely. I am not criticizing Schmidt or saying he shouldn't be in the HOF or wasn't that good anything like that, I am saying I think Harper will be too. In comparing MVP votes and saying I think Harper will wind up with more top ten finishes than Schmidt that doesn't mean that I think Schmidt's career is any less impressive or impactful. If I say I think Trout is going to hit more Home Runs than Barry Bonds that doesn't mean I don't think Barry Bonds is as good as he was.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Gary Dell’Abate might be the greatest pitcher of all time. Guy could really bring the heat.