OT: Phillies: We Might Just Get A Little Stupid Spending: Offseason Part One

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OrangeAndBlackMetal

Dark Wizard of the Black Cascade
Aug 14, 2009
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We could add Trout and Harper, but at this point it wouldn't matter much with our starting pitching lol, we'd have to drive in 10 runs a game on any night Nola isn't on the mound...
 

JojoTheWhale

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May 22, 2008
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Perhaps I am reading it wrong, but in 2017 it appears that Joe Mauer was the best 1B in the league from a defensive standpoint and Brian Dozier was 11th, while Byron Buxton was 5th (this was using default sorting in fangraphs and UZR, I am not an advanced stats guy so if this is wrong let me know what the rankings should be).

One thing that may help you in a general sense is that it's often suggested to use UZR in 3 year windows rather than a single season due to sample size issues.

As others have said, defensive abilities are harder to measure. We've had the methodology behind Linear Weights (which is behind a lot of the more famous newer batting metrics) for ~35 years while having tracking data is only a recent development. UZR or DRS or whatever other public measure you choose is not nearly as refined as our quantification of the offensive side of the game and should not be taken as gospel, but rather far more accurate than what we had previously.
 
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DrinkFightFlyers

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One thing that may help you in a general sense is that it's often suggested to use UZR in 3 year windows rather than a single season due to sample size issues.

As others have said, defensive abilities are harder to measure. We've had the methodology behind Linear Weights (which is behind a lot of the more famous newer batting metrics) for ~35 years while having tracking data is only a recent development. UZR or DRS or whatever other public measure you choose is not nearly as refined as our quantification of the offensive side of the game and should not be taken as gospel, but rather far more accurate than what we had previously.
Yeah that is one of my biggest problem with advanced stats is the need to quantify everything. I just can't wrap my ahead around where these stats come from and when asking for explanations you really only get references to other advanced stats that go into formula for whatever advanced stats your asking about. They have value for sure, but I am sorry I just can't accept that player A who lacks in every single major category by a relatively high number is a drastically better player overall because he is a better fielder. Fielding is important. No question. But offense is and always will be king.
 

JojoTheWhale

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Yeah that is one of my biggest problem with advanced stats is the need to quantify everything. I just can't wrap my ahead around where these stats come from and when asking for explanations you really only get references to other advanced stats that go into formula for whatever advanced stats your asking about. They have value for sure, but I am sorry I just can't accept that player A who lacks in every single major category by a relatively high number is a drastically better player overall because he is a better fielder. Fielding is important. No question. But offense is and always will be king.

Ok, let's say offense is more important than defense across the board and we magically know this to be a fundamental law of baseball somehow.

Now let's say you're a baseball professional, not just a guy watching a ballgame on a Saturday. At what point does putting Rhys Hoskins in Left Field to get Santana in the lineup actually add value?
 

deadhead

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Feb 26, 2014
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We could add Trout and Harper, but at this point it wouldn't matter much with our starting pitching lol, we'd have to drive in 10 runs a game on any night Nola isn't on the mound...

What's wrong with our starting pitching?
Velasquez, Eflin and Pivetta all had FIP around 3.80, with better defense they could be solid 2/3 starters. We had the worst defense in the majors by a wide margin last year, which is why we traded Santana and signed McCutchen.
Arrieta is probably our worst SP, Eickhoff is our 6th starter, with Suarez, De Los Santos, Romero, Irvin and Anderson in AAA ball this summer.
And the bullpen is as deep as they come, biggest question is SD and Neris, but both have closer stuff.
 

magnumpi

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What's wrong with our starting pitching?
Velasquez, Eflin and Pivetta all had FIP around 3.80, with better defense they could be solid 2/3 starters. We had the worst defense in the majors by a wide margin last year, which is why we traded Santana and signed McCutchen.
Arrieta is probably our worst SP, Eickhoff is our 6th starter, with Suarez, De Los Santos, Romero, Irvin and Anderson in AAA ball this summer.
And the bullpen is as deep as they come, biggest question is SD and Neris, but both have closer stuff.


rotation is @SS
Nola is an ace but everyone else is a 4th or 5th starter
 

OrangeAndBlackMetal

Dark Wizard of the Black Cascade
Aug 14, 2009
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What's wrong with our starting pitching?
Velasquez, Eflin and Pivetta all had FIP around 3.80, with better defense they could be solid 2/3 starters. We had the worst defense in the majors by a wide margin last year, which is why we traded Santana and signed McCutchen.
Arrieta is probably our worst SP, Eickhoff is our 6th starter, with Suarez, De Los Santos, Romero, Irvin and Anderson in AAA ball this summer.
And the bullpen is as deep as they come, biggest question is SD and Neris, but both have closer stuff.
I just don't trust it. It always feels like a ticking time bomb. I have no faith in anyone except Nola.
 
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DrinkFightFlyers

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What do you mean why? If you have a choice at any position to have a player that will bat .330 and smack 35+hrs with OBP over .400 but sucks in the field or a player that will bad .200 and strikeout 150+ times but he'll win a gold glove every year, who are you taking?

Ok, let's say offense is more important than defense across the board and we magically know this to be a fundamental law of baseball somehow.

Now let's say you're a baseball professional, not just a guy watching a ballgame on a Saturday. At what point does putting Rhys Hoskins in Left Field to get Santana in the lineup actually add value?

That's a case by case question. You'd have to look at the whole picture. Santana wasn't bringing any real impressive offense last season so having a worse bat at first and a worse fielder in LF is a no-brainer to make that switch. But, if let's say the rumors were true about getting Goldschmidt and leaving him Rhys in LF, then I would take the hit in defense for the added offense. And don't get me wrong, I am not saying that defense is not important or irrelevant, but having the best fielder at a position vs. having the best hitter I'd take the best hitter. Obviously you want the guy with the best mix and it isn't always a hitter that sucks at fielding or vice-versa, but there is a reason that guys like Rey Ordonez don't have stellar careers (they couldn't hit).
 

JojoTheWhale

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That's a case by case question. You'd have to look at the whole picture. Santana wasn't bringing any real impressive offense last season so having a worse bat at first and a worse fielder in LF is a no-brainer to make that switch. But, if let's say the rumors were true about getting Goldschmidt and leaving him Rhys in LF, then I would take the hit in defense for the added offense. And don't get me wrong, I am not saying that defense is not important or irrelevant, but having the best fielder at a position vs. having the best hitter I'd take the best hitter. Obviously you want the guy with the best mix and it isn't always a hitter that sucks at fielding or vice-versa, but there is a reason that guys like Rey Ordonez don't have stellar careers (they couldn't hit).

The bolded is the exact point I was going to make. Front offices are focused on individual net impact and what is not being properly valued by the market as a whole.

Once you make the leap to only caring about net impact, you have to find a way to quantify it or you’re flying blind. Generalities get you fired.
 
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Captain Dave Poulin

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Getting a feeling we're getting shut out of Machado and Harper. What a disaster

I heard a guy this morning from USA Today, something (Bob?) Nightengale, who still thinks the Phils are leading the chase for Harper. He's the one who reported, I think during the Series, that Harper's agent said his client knew where he would be going, that it was a "done deal." No idea how much credence to give this guy, though. I think he said that the Dodgers wanted him, but on like a five-year deal, and it would leave too much money on the table. It sounded like the Yankees met with Machado and really liked him.
 

BringBackHakstol

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What do you mean why? If you have a choice at any position to have a player that will bat .330 and smack 35+hrs with OBP over .400 but sucks in the field or a player that will bad .200 and strikeout 150+ times but he'll win a gold glove every year, who are you taking?



That's a case by case question. You'd have to look at the whole picture. Santana wasn't bringing any real impressive offense last season so having a worse bat at first and a worse fielder in LF is a no-brainer to make that switch. But, if let's say the rumors were true about getting Goldschmidt and leaving him Rhys in LF, then I would take the hit in defense for the added offense. And don't get me wrong, I am not saying that defense is not important or irrelevant, but having the best fielder at a position vs. having the best hitter I'd take the best hitter. Obviously you want the guy with the best mix and it isn't always a hitter that sucks at fielding or vice-versa, but there is a reason that guys like Rey Ordonez don't have stellar careers (they couldn't hit).

Come on. You are using over simplified and extreme examples to make your point.

Objectively both sides of the game are equally important. It's just that measuring defense is not easy as others have pointed out.

Your question initially started out making sense about measuring defense in stat like WAR, but now you are making no sense.
 
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FatTugboatFlahr

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Apr 6, 2012
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I heard a guy this morning from USA Today, something (Bob?) Nightengale, who still thinks the Phils are leading the chase for Harper. He's the one who reported, I think during the Series, that Harper's agent said his client knew where he would be going, that it was a "done deal." No idea how much credence to give this guy, though. I think he said that the Dodgers wanted him, but on like a five-year deal, and it would leave too much money on the table. It sounded like the Yankees met with Machado and really liked him.
That’s a lot of info, Captain.

If you’re wrong, Bunnaman will never play an NHL game.
 
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Hurricane28

Angry Flyers STH/Weather Guy
Aug 22, 2012
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I heard a guy this morning from USA Today, something (Bob?) Nightengale, who still thinks the Phils are leading the chase for Harper. He's the one who reported, I think during the Series, that Harper's agent said his client knew where he would be going, that it was a "done deal." No idea how much credence to give this guy, though. I think he said that the Dodgers wanted him, but on like a five-year deal, and it would leave too much money on the table. It sounded like the Yankees met with Machado and really liked him.

Nightengale’s stuff has been interesting all winter. He has been very bullish on Harper to PHI. Came out with the article back in November saying Harper was coming to Philadelphia
 
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Cody Webster

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Jul 18, 2014
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Morton to the Rays

Chalk up another target lost.

I'm sensing a trend here and having a feeling it will continue for the foreseeable future
 

JojoTheWhale

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I must admit I'm a little confused as to how they weren't in on Morton at 2/30 unless they just flat out don't like him. That would seem to fit perfectly.
 
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