Speculation: Philip Danault

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Junohockeyfan

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I'm not discrediting the "eye test" I've seen the guy play plenty.

Since I am apparently clinging to one stat, I will ask you to show me one stat that suggests that Danault is a 3rd liner.

That's the best question to ask. I would like an answer on that as well. All stats point to a mid-production 2C with elite defensive game. He is ranked 45th in point production amongst C's over the past 2 seasons.
 
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I'm not discrediting the "eye test" I've seen the guy play plenty.

Since I am apparently clinging to one stat, I will ask you to show me one stat that suggests that Danault is a 3rd liner.

I don't base my arguments off just one stat like you do though. I've explicitly stated why Danault is best fit for a 3rd line shutdown role. Go back and read it.
 
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2Pair

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I don't base my arguments off just one stat like you do though. I've explicitly stated why Danault is best fit for a 3rd line shutdown role. Go back and read it.
All I asked for was one statistic.
 

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That's the best question to ask. I would like an answer on that as well. All stats point to a mid-production 2C with elite defensive game. He is ranked 45th in point production amongst C's over the past 2 seasons.

While playing first line minutes with first liners. Even the stat you posted earlier indicates he's the third best guy on his line, and Gallagher and Tatar are more responsible for driving the offense. Decrease his minutes and his linemate quality and his "mid-2C" production dips.
 

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All I asked for was one statistic.

I'm not going to dig for a stat that says he's a third liner because it wouldn't prove anything. Just like your one stat doesn't prove anything. Holistically, with context, he's best fit for a third line. Testimonial backs that up.
 

2Pair

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That's the best question to ask. I would like an answer on that as well. All stats point to a mid-production 2C with elite defensive game. He is ranked 45th in point production amongst C's over the past 2 seasons.
I just don't get the argument. I'm in no way claiming that Danault is one of the elite centers in the league. But, quite frankly, calling him a quality 2nd liner is underselling him.

Their argument is the equivalent of me saying that Matt Barzal or Elias Pettersson are best suited as 2nd line centers. Of course teams would love to have enough talent to use those guys on the 2nd line, but that certainly doesn't make them 2nd liners.
 

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I just don't get the argument. I'm in no way claiming that Danault is one of the elite centers in the league. But, quite frankly, calling him a quality 2nd liner is underselling him.

Their argument is the equivalent of me saying that Matt Barzal or Elias Pettersson are best suited as 2nd line centers. Of course teams would love to have enough talent to use those guys on the 2nd line, but that certainly doesn't make them 2nd liners.

No, no it's not.
 

Junohockeyfan

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While playing first line minutes with first liners. Even the stat you posted earlier indicates he's the third best guy on his line, and Gallagher and Tatar are more responsible for driving the offense.

Between 2018-2020, Danault ranked 41st among all C's in average TOI. That's 2nd line minutes.

Gally/Tatar are 1st liners on the Habs but may be 2nd liners on other teams. The argument goes both ways.

Put him on a line with Patrick Kane and he might produce 80 pts. Put him on a line with Donskoi and Compher and he might produce 45. No 2C is producing with 3rd line players.
 

Junohockeyfan

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I just don't get the argument. I'm in no way claiming that Danault is one of the elite centers in the league. But, quite frankly, calling him a quality 2nd liner is underselling him.

Their argument is the equivalent of me saying that Matt Barzal or Elias Pettersson are best suited as 2nd line centers. Of course teams would love to have enough talent to use those guys on the 2nd line, but that certainly doesn't make them 2nd liners.

I am trying to remain unbiased in the argument. I can't find a statistic that demonstrates Danault is a 3C. He plays 2nd line minutes. He has good wingers but on many teams Gally/Tatar are 2nd line wingers. He produces 2C production. I don't know how to make an argument against him being a 2C.
 

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Between 2018-2020, Danault ranked 41st among all C's in average TOI. That's 2nd line minutes.

Gally/Tatar are 1st liners on the Habs but may be 2nd liners on other teams. The argument goes both ways.

Put him on a line with Patrick Kane and he might produce 80 pts. Put him on a line with Donskoi and Compher and he might produce 45. No 2C is producing with 3rd line players.

If you really want to get down to it, he was 32nd in time on ice for "centers" this season, mere seconds behind the top 29.

Behind guys like Giroux, Lindholm, Miller, RNH, Reinhart, who are all predominantly wingers. On top of that, he received Montreal's first line minutes; he was first in minutes on Montreal by a landslide (not including Kovalchuk), and even if you take out PK minutes he was third. He's been the most used forward on Montreal's roster for two years now.
 

2Pair

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If you really want to get down to it, he was 32nd in time on ice for "centers" this season, mere seconds behind the top 29.

Behind guys like Giroux, Lindholm, Miller, RNH, Reinhart, who are all predominantly wingers. On top of that, he received Montreal's first line minutes; he was first in minutes on Montreal by a landslide (not including Kovalchuk), and even if you take out PK minutes he was third. He's been the most used forward on Montreal's roster for two years now.
Where does his production with those minutes rank?
 

Junohockeyfan

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If you really want to get down to it, he was 32nd in time on ice for "centers" this season, mere seconds behind the top 29.

Behind guys like Giroux, Lindholm, Miller, RNH, Reinhart, who are all predominantly wingers. On top of that, he received Montreal's first line minutes; he was first in minutes on Montreal by a landslide (not including Kovalchuk), and even if you take out PK minutes he was third. He's been the most used forward on Montreal's roster for two years now.

If you really want to get down to it, he was 41st between 2018 to 2020 (past 2 seasons) in TOI. And 45th in point production.

So he's getting second line icetime and producing 2C production. Its irrelevant that he gets the most minutes in Montreal. We are comparing to the rest of the C's in the league. A
 

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If you really want to get down to it, he was 41st between 2018 to 2020 (past 2 seasons) in TOI. And 45th in point production.

So he's getting second line icetime and producing 2C production. Its irrelevant that he gets the most minutes in Montreal. We are comparing to the rest of the C's in the league. A

I just explained to you how he's getting first line minutes this season league wide, and in Montreal for the past two years (at least). If you choose to ignore those because they don't suit your narrative, that's your problem, but I'm not going to address your point based on a false premise.
 

Junohockeyfan

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I just explained to you how he's getting first line minutes this season league wide, and in Montreal for the past two years (at least). If you choose to ignore those because they don't suit your narrative, that's your problem, but I'm not going to address your point based on a false premise.

League-wide he's getting 2nd line minutes over the past 2 seasons cumulative. You can't take a shortened 2019-2020 season as your sample set. You need to take at least the past 2 seasons combined. In those combined seasons he averaged 2C minutes and 2C production. That equals 2C. You can't ignore that.

Even if you wanted to just use last season he's ranking last among 1st line minutes and producing 2C production.

Facts are facts buddy.

Its irrelevant what the distribution of ice-time is in Montreal. Montreal distributes it more equally than most other teams due to depth. TOI compared to his peers is what matters.
 

AKL

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League-wide he's getting 2nd line minutes over the past 2 seasons cumulative. You can't take a shortened 2019-2020 season as your sample set. You need to take at least the past 2 seasons combined. In those combined seasons he averaged 2C minutes and 2C production. That equals 2C. You can't ignore that.

Even if you wanted to just use last season he's ranking last among 1st line minutes and producing 2C production.

Facts are facts buddy.

You only want to look league-wide for the past two seasons because it's the segment that fits what you're trying to argue.

The fact that Edmonton had McDavid and Draisaitl playing more, Pittsburgh had Crosby and Malkin playing more and Washington had Backstrom and Kuznetsov playing more doesn't change the fact that he was getting 1C minutes in Montreal.
 

AKL

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Says the guy that can't answer the simplest of questions

The question where you're trying to lead me to an argument I'm not making so you can "gotcha" me?
 

Junohockeyfan

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Over the past 3 seasons Danault has ranked 56th in point production amongst C's and 48th in TOI.

He's a 2C folks!
 

Junohockeyfan

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You only want to look league-wide for the past two seasons because it's the segment that fits what you're trying to argue.

The fact that Edmonton had McDavid and Draisaitl playing more, Pittsburgh had Crosby and Malkin playing more and Washington had Backstrom and Kuznetsov playing more doesn't change the fact that he was getting 1C minutes in Montreal.

That's an idiotic argument. If you are comparing apples to apples, between players in the league, then you use the same stats. TOI and average PPG. It doesn't matter that he gets more ice-time compared to Suzuki/Kotkaniemi and Domi. To normalize the comparison you have to take the averages of all C's in the NHL. Its not rocket science. Learn math!

The only argument you can try to make is that his wingers are higher level than other 2C's. But from a statistical standpoint, Danault is a proven 2C. End of story.
 

Junohockeyfan

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No one here has proven me wrong, but if someone has, it certainly wasn't you.

1. Past 3 seasons combined (or 2 seasons combined or 1 season) Danault's average TOI has ranked between 32 and 62.
2. Past 3 seasons combined (or 2 seasons combined or 1 season) Danault's average PPG has ranked between 32 and 62
3. 32 - 62 ranking is 2C category

Using logic, deduction, common sense, a little bit of intelligence and humility, one must surmise that Danault ranks as a 2C in this here NHL over the past 3 seasons, or 2 seasons or 1 season.
 

Junohockeyfan

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Danault is best fit as a defensive 3C, and I haven't seen any evidence to the contrary.

To pivot a bit on the Wild. If i understand your argument, you see no value in Danault because the Wild needs a 1C and 2C (as Staal will be done likely after next season). So therefore, no interest in Danault as he is in your eyes a 3C.

Are we on point here?
 
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AKL

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To pivot a bit on the Wild. If i understand your argument, you see no value in Danault because the Wild needs a 1C and 2C (as Staal will be done likely after next season). So therefore, no interest in Danault as he is in your eyes a 3C.

Are we on point here?

No interest in moving Brodin or Dumba for him. You want something around Greenway+? Sure. The problem is Montreal has no reason to move him for Greenway+. Fiala is obviously off the table, Kaprizov too, and we don't have any other wingers Montreal would be interested in.

I would have no problem using Danault as a 2C in a vacuum, because he's an upgrade on any of our centers (but this isn't saying much). My problem is the cost to acquire him and the contract he's looking for, as well as the usage he seeks to get, is not worth us paying for him or giving to him. At this point, he is a piece that a team acquires if they're about one Danault away from a Cup, not to rely on him to be the sole top 6 center going forward. If we acquire Danault, we're in no different a position than Montreal has been all the years they've been using him as their 1C.
 
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