OT: Philadelphia Phillies (MLB): The quest for 100 losses begins now.

[Halladay]

The train wreck continues here.

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[whitstifier]

Unfortunate that the Cardinals had to make a move to get Heyward, but he's a ton better than Taveras would ever be. It was weird that people took the tragic circumstance of Taveras' death as an opportunity to glorify him as a baseball star. Taveras had talent, but it was hardly certain that he'd be able to put everything together and become a star in MLB. Pretty darn raw.

 

[sobrien]

Unfortunate that the Cardinals had to make a move to get Heyward, but he's a ton better than Taveras would ever be. It was weird that people took the tragic circumstance of Taveras' death as an opportunity to glorify him as a baseball star. Taveras had talent, but it was hardly certain that he'd be able to put everything together and become a star in MLB. Pretty darn raw.

That couldn't be further from the truth. Tavares had everything but top end speed, yet he wasn't slow. He swung at almost anything and made contact with most of it, and he had power.

I strongly felt like he could be the LH Vlad Guerrero without the cannon arm from RF.

 

[JDinkalage Morgoone]

I think Taveras could've easily eclipsed Jason Heyward. Maybe I'm mistaken, but Heyward has been a huge letdown from what was expected of him.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

I think Taveras could've easily eclipsed Jason Heyward. Maybe I'm mistaken, but Heyward has been a huge letdown from what was expected of him.

Yeah, but he's still a good, valuable player. The hope was that he would be a 5-tool superstar. He's still good, but he's not as good as advertised. I wouldn't necessarily call him a bust, but he is definitely not meeting expectations.

 

[JDinkalage Morgoone]

Yeah, but he's still a good, valuable player. The hope was that he would be a 5-tool superstar. He's still good, but he's not as good as advertised. I wouldn't necessarily call him a bust, but he is definitely not meeting expectations.

I don't think he's a bust at all. I just remember hearing people say he would be another superstar.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

I don't think he's a bust at all. I just remember hearing people say he would be another superstar.

Yeah, he had a great start to his career too. Arguably should have won ROY over Posey (had more hits, SBs, Runs, RBI, Walks...looks like the only thing he lagged behind in was BA, SLG, and OPS). He was pretty bad his second year, but has been solid ever since. He is still only 25 years old too.

 

[whitstifier]

That couldn't be further from the truth. Tavares had everything but top end speed, yet he wasn't slow. He swung at almost anything and made contact with most of it, and he had power.

I strongly felt like he could be the LH Vlad Guerrero without the cannon arm from RF.

Also top end defense, power, etc. He would've only been as valuable as his bat allowed, which never really lit up any league with power numbers. He didn't hit at a rate--at any level--that ever suggested he would've developed into a star player. Heyward IS a star player; can't really argue that.

EDIT: Actually, his season in AA was very good. I missed that!

 

[FLYguy3911]

Getting away from Atlanta should help Heyward. That's not exactly a hitters ballpark.

 

[sobrien]

Also top end defense, power, etc. He would've only been as valuable as his bat allowed, which never really lit up any league with power numbers. He didn't hit at a rate--at any level--that ever suggested he would've developed into a star player. Heyward IS a star player; can't really argue that.

EDIT: Actually, his season in AA was very good. I missed that!

Tavares had tremendous power and had a great year in AAA Memphis last year before the call up, I saw it with my own eyes every game. Like I said, potentially the next Vlad

EDIT: "At that point, he had been batting .325 with a .373 OBP and a .524 SLG at Memphis. Other totals included seven HR and 40 RBI in 49 games and 191 at-bats. Taveras was held hitless in consecutive games just once. In his last ten games, he collected hits in all but one, batting. 462. During those same 10 games, he fashioned two three-hit games and one four-hit outing. In 209 plate appearances, he walked just 14 times, but also struck out just 25 for a 12.1% strikeout rate."

His defense was not great either, but not a detriment. I think he and Heyward could have been very similar players; Heyward ultimately better in the field and Oscar with a better average and power numbers.

Either way we see it, it's not really worth the energy squabbling over now...we'll never know the outcome

 

[usahockey22flyers]

"The train wreck continues here"

So incredibly fitting.

Love Stanton, but my gosh is 325 mil a lot.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

"The train wreck continues here"

So incredibly fitting.

Love Stanton, but my gosh is 325 mil a lot.

I don't think he'll be there past the 6 year option. I can see him opting out & getting another big check from a more desirable team.

 

[usahockey22flyers]

I don't think he'll be there past the 6 year option. I can see him opting out & getting another big check from a more desirable team.

Same thing I was thinking.

I think they'll compete in the east, but if things go financially bad in MIA, that team will return to 08-11 times. Bleak and in trouble.

 

[zarley zelepukin]

Taveras wasn't one of the top prospects in baseball for no reason. He probably didn't quite hit in AAA like he was expected to, but that level is a tough challenge for talented but overly aggressive hitters (see: Franco, Maikel).

Anyway, I know that the amount of team control remaining for each guy was a big factor in the Heyward trade, but if the Cardinals can keep him there that's a great trade for them. As noted above, Heyward hasn't lived up to the sky-high expectations he came into the league with, but he's above average offensively, great in the field, and still just 25. His prime years may be just beginning.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Heyward will get a monster deal in two years. Don't see him passing up an opportunity to hit the open market. 27 year old who can run, field, get on base, and has pop. Wouldn't mind seeing him here in two years.

 

[JWEKD]

Heyward will get a monster deal in two years. Don't see him passing up an opportunity to hit the open market. 27 year old who can run, field, get on base, and has pop. Wouldn't mind seeing him here in two years.

Heyward sucks and is a major disappointment. Hits .262, 15hrs, 60 rbi, .350 obp, 63 stolen bases... in his career, good to miss 20-40 games a year.
I dont think hes what this Phillies team needs. Especially not for the 'monster deal' you say he'll get.

 

[ILoveStephanieBrown]

Heyward is barely better than Dom Brown. Pass

 

[zarley zelepukin]

Heyward sucks and is a major disappointment. Hits .262, 15hrs, 60 rbi, .350 obp, 63 stolen bases... in his career, good to miss 20-40 games a year.
I dont think hes what this Phillies team needs. Especially not for the 'monster deal' you say he'll get.

Heyward is barely better than Dom Brown. Pass

You guys are mistaken. Heyward is above average offensively and well above average defensively. Is he a disappointment? Sure, because he was thought to be on the Trout/Harper level of talent. He hasn't lived up to expectations but he's a good player. If you're going by last year he's a hell of a lot better than Dom.

 

[JWEKD]

You guys are mistaken. Heyward is above average offensively and well above average defensively. Is he a disappointment? Sure, because he was thought to be on the Trout/Harper level of talent. He hasn't lived up to expectations but he's a good player. If you're going by last year he's a hell of a lot better than Dom.

All time major league average is about .268 so he's not above average. But lets assume everything you say is true. How much would pay him on the open market?

 

[zarley zelepukin]

When I say he's above average I mean relative to the era we're currently in; offense is pretty scarce right now. Plus, batting average is far down the list of stats I'd use to evaluate a hitter.

What I'd pay him on the open market? That depends on how he does in the upcoming season, but it's rare for a player of his caliber to hit free agency at only 26. If he has a good (for him) season, maybe something approaching what Jacoby Ellsbury got- 7 years, $150 mil. It wouldn't surprise me if he gets a longer deal, since the contract will lock up his prime years and not his decline years like Ellsbury.

 

[JWEKD]

7 years at $150 million will have you paying him $21 million at age 34. What are we all regretting paying Howard at age 34? And Howards top season's were waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay better than Heyward's have ever been. Howard won an MVP lest we forget.

I know its different positions and maybe in 7 years $20 million will be a bargain for a mediocre aging outfielder. I dunno... but I know I wouldnt touch this guy long-term.

 

[Halladay]

Heyward had a wRC+ of 110 last year, where 100 is average. This takes into account league and park factor. His OPS+ from baseball reference which is similar to wRC+ is 108. He is an above average hitter who walks and hits for some power. Take into account his gold glove defense and that makes him a very good player. He is so much better than Domonic Brown.

Here is a link explaining wRC+.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/wrc/

 

[FLYguy3911]

All time major league average is about .268 so he's not above average. But lets assume everything you say is true. How much would pay him on the open market?

Major league average is .251 these days. Looking at batting average is what Ruben does. He's got a career walk rate over 11%. He's got good raw power that doesn't show in Atlanta. His career numbers on the road are much better. Elite defensively. Can hit anywhere in the lineup. Can run. HE'S YOUNG!!!

Teams pay a premium for "prime years". It is so rare for guys to reach free agency in baseball at 26 (a young 26 too). Even if he gets 8 years (which seems pretty standard) you are in theory getting about 6 "prime" years. I'll take that. He'll easily get 100 million+ on the open market provided he doesn't self destruct this season. He's averaged about 5 WAR/season in his career and he hasn't really come close to his offensive potential. Fangraphs says that's worth about $28 million/season. He won't get that much over the life of the contract, but I think he's probably worth 20+ million/year.

It would be no where near the Howard contract. To put it in perspective, Howard's first full season was at age 26 (what Heyward will be when he could hit free agency). Howard that year had a WAR over 5 - the only time in his career. Heyward already has 2 seasons with 5+ WAR before his 25th birthday. You are only looking at this from an offensive perspective. Speed and defense can still win games. Ask the KC Royals.

Another way to look at it. Yasmany Tomas is going to get a contract near 100 million over 7/8 years without facing quality pitching more than a handful of times, a questionable body, questionable defensive skills, but he's got one plus tool that is in demand and he just turned 24. Teams will pay a premium for those years.

Also look what Stanton just got!!! And he didn't even hit the open market. Now Heyward is a step below him, but it just goes to show you what teams value these days.

 

[sobrien]

Taveras wasn't one of the top prospects in baseball for no reason. He probably didn't quite hit in AAA like he was expected to, but that level is a tough challenge for talented but overly aggressive hitters (see: Franco, Maikel).

Anyway, I know that the amount of team control remaining for each guy was a big factor in the Heyward trade, but if the Cardinals can keep him there that's a great trade for them. As noted above, Heyward hasn't lived up to the sky-high expectations he came into the league with, but he's above average offensively, great in the field, and still just 25. His prime years may be just beginning.

see below:

Tavares had tremendous power and had a great year in AAA Memphis last year before the call up, I saw it with my own eyes every game. Like I said, potentially the next Vlad

EDIT: "At that point, he had been batting .325 with a .373 OBP and a .524 SLG at Memphis. Other totals included seven HR and 40 RBI in 49 games and 191 at-bats. Taveras was held hitless in consecutive games just once. In his last ten games, he collected hits in all but one, batting. 462. During those same 10 games, he fashioned two three-hit games and one four-hit outing. In 209 plate appearances, he walked just 14 times, but also struck out just 25 for a 12.1% strikeout rate."

His defense was not great either, but not a detriment. I think he and Heyward could have been very similar players; Heyward ultimately better in the field and Oscar with a better average and power numbers.

Either way we see it, it's not really worth the energy squabbling over now...we'll never know the outcome

Again, no real point in arguing it now, but Tavares absolutely destroyed AAA last season.

 

[zarley zelepukin]

Again, no real point in arguing it now, but Tavares absolutely destroyed AAA last season.

I only say that because the PCL is a very hitter friendly league. Joc Pederson hit .303/.435/.582 last year. Of hitters with at least 250 PAs there last year (Taveras had 256) his wOBA was 29th. It's not that he didn't hit well, but he didn't dominate like was probably expected given his placement on prospect lists. That's not to say that he couldn't have been great though. There were only a few guys ahead of him who weren't significantly older- notably Pederson and Kris Bryant.