OT: Philadelphia Eagles (NFL): Now We Wait And See What The Future Brings
- Thread starter Hollywood Cannon
- Start date
- Status
JojoTheWhale
CORN BOY
- May 22, 2008
- 33,536
- 104,740
Newton, Flacco, Bortles, Siemian, Kessler, and McCown. None of them are good. McCown may not even want to play again. But all would be more likely to be ready to play in a game than Hurts this year.
Even if you simplified your offense down to a Chip Kelly-esque approach to the playbook, there are still too many optionalities built in for both the offense and the opposing defense to be able to get down to simple. Plus quite frankly, Hurts doesn't have the toolbox to run a conservative passing game right now. He can't hit the window between the LB and a Safety with any sort of consistency because he couldn't anticipate them at the college level. Now you want him to do it up a level with far more complicated reads and tighter windows in Year One.
You're hoping you eventually get Tyrod Taylor out of Hurts. That's a guy that will give you years of being somewhere between the 20th and 40th best QBs in the league and might be cheap enough to keep for an extra year or two beyond his rookie deal. That's not materially different from what Bortles is now with minimal risk at the cost of similarly minimal upside.
I didn't mention Jameis because it sounded like he wanted to be in New Orleans. But he would be a massive upgrade over everyone else on this list if he thought the Eagles could also give him what he wanted on a 1 year deal. I'd choose New Orleans too, but not for football reasons.
Replying to @deadhead in the other thread
a) We have cap space. I am not suggesting signing someone like let's say Joe Flacco to a ten year deal. Sign him to a 1-2 year deal if you are that concerned about Wentz's health. I'd rather have a high salary cap backup as an insurance policy than use a high value pick on a guy that isn't as good. If we are that concerned about Wentz's health, why not spend money on a better player? This logic doesn't make sense.
b) Jalen Hurts has at least as much talent questions than most of the current available QBs seeing as how he has never taken an NFL snap, and all backup QBs have talent questions...that's why they are backup quarterbacks.
c) that may be true about certain guys but then you don't sign them.
If you lose your franchise QB to injury, you will are extremely unlikely to succeed regardless. There was some stat I read the other day that backup QBs have won something like 7% of the games that they have played in in the playoffs (and one of those wins was between two backups). I know Nick Foles did it here but that is far and away the exception to the rule. Whether it is Joe Flacco, Blaine Gabbert, Blake Bortles, Jalen Hurns, Nate Sudfeld, or anyone else, the odds are so far against them accomplishing what we want that it is not worth it to use that pick on him...especially when there were other viable options. Unless you can convince me that you believe Jalen Hurts is ready to step in and play today at a high level and ultimately become a franchise QB, there are better and cheaper options available. The story is different if Carson Wentz isn't here or his injury(ies) is(are) worse than we know AND Hurts has franchise QB potential, but neither of those things seem to be the case.
Honestly, which of these QBs is Jalen Hurts better than (there may be other guys available, these are just guys I know off hand are free agents)? And I don't mean who will have a better career, I mean if we have a must win game tomorrow over which guys are you starting Hurts? For me, probably just Geno Smith.
Joe Flacco
Cam Newton
Blake Bortles
Mike Glennon
Trevor Siemien
Matt Moore
Geno Smith
a) We have cap space. I am not suggesting signing someone like let's say Joe Flacco to a ten year deal. Sign him to a 1-2 year deal if you are that concerned about Wentz's health. I'd rather have a high salary cap backup as an insurance policy than use a high value pick on a guy that isn't as good. If we are that concerned about Wentz's health, why not spend money on a better player? This logic doesn't make sense.
b) Jalen Hurts has at least as much talent questions than most of the current available QBs seeing as how he has never taken an NFL snap, and all backup QBs have talent questions...that's why they are backup quarterbacks.
c) that may be true about certain guys but then you don't sign them.
If you lose your franchise QB to injury, you will are extremely unlikely to succeed regardless. There was some stat I read the other day that backup QBs have won something like 7% of the games that they have played in in the playoffs (and one of those wins was between two backups). I know Nick Foles did it here but that is far and away the exception to the rule. Whether it is Joe Flacco, Blaine Gabbert, Blake Bortles, Jalen Hurns, Nate Sudfeld, or anyone else, the odds are so far against them accomplishing what we want that it is not worth it to use that pick on him...especially when there were other viable options. Unless you can convince me that you believe Jalen Hurts is ready to step in and play today at a high level and ultimately become a franchise QB, there are better and cheaper options available. The story is different if Carson Wentz isn't here or his injury(ies) is(are) worse than we know AND Hurts has franchise QB potential, but neither of those things seem to be the case.
Honestly, which of these QBs is Jalen Hurts better than (there may be other guys available, these are just guys I know off hand are free agents)? And I don't mean who will have a better career, I mean if we have a must win game tomorrow over which guys are you starting Hurts? For me, probably just Geno Smith.
Joe Flacco
Cam Newton
Blake Bortles
Mike Glennon
Trevor Siemien
Matt Moore
Geno Smith
I guess the better and more direct way of putting it would be this: Would you rather have a backup QB with an expensive price tag and a potential impact player at a different position or a backup QB with a lower price tag who might be able to be a starting QB some day if necessary? I know what I would pick.
BrindamoursNose
Registered User
- Oct 14, 2008
- 20,098
- 14,212
Pretty much dead-on.
I truthfully can't understand how it's even a debate. Would you rather have an actual CB on the other side of Slay by drafting Fulton (right now I think Maddox is slated for 2nd CB) or Hurts as your 3rd string guy next year?
I take the player that plays every snap over the guy who, if all goes according to plan, plays ZERO snaps.
Especially considering that whomever would be in the #2 spot at QB would almost assuredly be as good if not better than Hurts. Maybe I am underrating Hurts, but does anyone out there realistically think that at his absolute best he would be anything more than average starting QB? I know that it is possible he becomes a HOFer and you find gems all over the draft blah blah blah, but is there anyone out there that looks at Hurts and thinks that in an absolute worst case scenario where Wentz either shits the bed or suffers a career ending injury that the future of the franchise is Jalen Hurts? Because I would have to imagine that in that case our Birds would be in the market for a new QB pretty quickly.
Hollywood Cannon
I'm Away From My Desk
I don't even think he's an NFL QB unless he improves dramatically but who am I. The majority of this fan base that is defending the move know the name Jalen Hurts and saw the teams he was on and don't actually watch the guy play. Maybe i'm going to be 1000% wrong but I just don't see him succeeding unless he improves dramatically and I honestly don't see it happening. That isn't something you use a 2nd round pick on, especially when you just gave your starting QB $100M.
This pick is indefensible. I don't care what all of the "smart guys in the room" say.
Chinatown88
Daniels QB3
JojoTheWhale
CORN BOY
- May 22, 2008
- 33,536
- 104,740
I really don't get this idea of taking Hurts versus the average 2nd rounder. That's treating drafts as if they're equal, which misses the point entirely.
The only relevant discussion is Hurts vs Fulton, Mims, Gay, Chinn, Wilson, Davis, Uche, Okwara, Cleveland, Epenesa, etc. Now Hurts doesn't have to be nearly as much of a hit relative to other QBs as the other positions to be worth the pick, but you have some other high value spots available like CB, EDGE, and true FS.
I would have so much less of a problem with the pick if there weren't other great options. Now maybe they didn't like Fulton. We do have to account for individual preferences. But some of those guys fit their profiles to a T.
They also don't have a second outside CB on the roster unless they're going to move them up closer to the LoS and play Douglas. But they tried to trade Douglas.
The only relevant discussion is Hurts vs Fulton, Mims, Gay, Chinn, Wilson, Davis, Uche, Okwara, Cleveland, Epenesa, etc. Now Hurts doesn't have to be nearly as much of a hit relative to other QBs as the other positions to be worth the pick, but you have some other high value spots available like CB, EDGE, and true FS.
I would have so much less of a problem with the pick if there weren't other great options. Now maybe they didn't like Fulton. We do have to account for individual preferences. But some of those guys fit their profiles to a T.
They also don't have a second outside CB on the roster unless they're going to move them up closer to the LoS and play Douglas. But they tried to trade Douglas.
Chinatown88
Daniels QB3
JojoTheWhale
CORN BOY
- May 22, 2008
- 33,536
- 104,740
If Slay doesn't follow 1s this year, I apologize in advance for the depression I bring into your life.
And if he does, we need to cut him some slack. It's difficult and he's going to get beaten sometimes.
Chinatown88
Daniels QB3
deadhead
Registered User
- Feb 26, 2014
- 49,215
- 21,617
Newton, Flacco, Bortles, Siemian, Kessler, and McCown. None of them are good. McCown may not even want to play again. But all would be more likely to be ready to play in a game than Hurts this year.
Even if you simplified your offense down to a Chip Kelly-esque approach to the playbook, there are still too many optionalities built in for both the offense and the opposing defense to be able to get down to simple. Plus quite frankly, Hurts doesn't have the toolbox to run a conservative passing game right now. He can't hit the window between the LB and a Safety with any sort of consistency because he couldn't anticipate them at the college level. Now you want him to do it up a level with far more complicated reads and tighter windows in Year One.
You're hoping you eventually get Tyrod Taylor out of Hurts. That's a guy that will give you years of being somewhere between the 20th and 40th best QBs in the league and might be cheap enough to keep for an extra year or two beyond his rookie deal. That's not materially different from what Bortles is now with minimal risk at the cost of similarly minimal upside.
I didn't mention Jameis because it sounded like he wanted to be in New Orleans. But he would be a massive upgrade over everyone else on this list if he thought the Eagles could also give him what he wanted on a 1 year deal. I'd choose New Orleans too, but not for football reasons.
Bortles - replaced by Foles, outplayed with the same personnel as 6th rd pick Minshew as a rookie QB
Flacco - 35 years old, 26 sacks in 8 games in Denver, he can't move to save his life now
Siemian - started in his 2nd season, benched in his 3rd season, reminds me of Koy Detmer
Kessler - 5.4 ypa in 2018, he'd bad, I'd rather go with Sudfeld
McCown - uh, what's the over/under before he breaks down? 1 game, 2 games?
Bortles is probably the only one I'd consider, and he's on his way out of the league. If he wasn't a high draft pick, he'd have been benched after a couple seasons.
Frankly, I'd rather bet on Hurts pulling of a "Minshew" than a washed up veteran.
If I'm going for a veteran backup, it would be someone like Fitzpatrick, problem is he's good enough to get a starting job with a bad team each year - but he's the perfect backup QB - good enough to win with a good team for an extended stretch, but not good enough to beat out a top QB. But he'd have to reach the point in his career where he prefers a shot at a ring over starting.
renberg
Registered User
From an article in The Athletic by Kapadia:
"When I watched Hurts on film, a few things stood out. As a runner, he is thick, sturdy, shifty and slippery. If you commit to building an offense around a dual-threat quarterback (like the Ravens did with Lamar Jackson), there’s a lot to like about Hurts’ skill set. As a passer, his accuracy is impressive. He did not miss a lot of throws, and often let his receivers try to make plays on contested catches. Hurts’ accuracy really stood out when he was on the move and making plays outside the pocket."
Kapadia went on to do a comp of Hurts and Burrow and it wasn't too negative on JH. IMO, if you go back and look at the tape of Hurts' play while he was at Alabama and compare it to what he did at OU, there showed some impressive improvement in is play. He has some negatives at the QB position that may be corrected in time but he also has some skills there that are ready for play now.
He definitely is insurance for went who has not shown that he can avoid injury. So far in his career there have been serious leg, back and head injuries. Add to that his inability to slide and he's a target for another hit in the future. When Wentz is healthy, he is as good of a QB as there is in the game. However that's the problem-when he's healthy. You can't play from the medical tent.
"When I watched Hurts on film, a few things stood out. As a runner, he is thick, sturdy, shifty and slippery. If you commit to building an offense around a dual-threat quarterback (like the Ravens did with Lamar Jackson), there’s a lot to like about Hurts’ skill set. As a passer, his accuracy is impressive. He did not miss a lot of throws, and often let his receivers try to make plays on contested catches. Hurts’ accuracy really stood out when he was on the move and making plays outside the pocket."
Kapadia went on to do a comp of Hurts and Burrow and it wasn't too negative on JH. IMO, if you go back and look at the tape of Hurts' play while he was at Alabama and compare it to what he did at OU, there showed some impressive improvement in is play. He has some negatives at the QB position that may be corrected in time but he also has some skills there that are ready for play now.
He definitely is insurance for went who has not shown that he can avoid injury. So far in his career there have been serious leg, back and head injuries. Add to that his inability to slide and he's a target for another hit in the future. When Wentz is healthy, he is as good of a QB as there is in the game. However that's the problem-when he's healthy. You can't play from the medical tent.
LegionOfDoom91
Registered User
Schwarbomb
Howie Be Thy Name
Consider the cap savings if that 2nd rounder was good enough to be an every down starter. I'll take those savings over saving on a backup QB.
JojoTheWhale
CORN BOY
- May 22, 2008
- 33,536
- 104,740
Again, none of them are good. Of course you would rather have Hurts than any of them as assets. But would you rather have Fulton (or your favorite option) + Bortles or Hurts + your favorite vet CB/S/LB/WR FA for one year? That's the question.
If you want a Minshew approach, you go for an Anthony Gordon. If you want to make a long-term upside play you take a Hurts and I'm fine with it. But don't tell me Hurts is a backup upgrade immediately when the guy couldn't anticipate windows in the Big 12. That's lunacy.
Hollywood Cannon
I'm Away From My Desk
@JojoTheWhale I’ve also been meaning to asking you. Where do you have Penei Sewell next year? Hopefully in the same place as me.
JojoTheWhale
CORN BOY
- May 22, 2008
- 33,536
- 104,740
I haven’t specifically watched him yet and OL consistency doesn’t necessarily stick out in real time, so there’s a lot of wiggle room.
Same tier as Fields and Lawrence without the positional bump. So if you’re not factoring in how important a QB is, he’s roughly as good as any player in the class. Chase and DeVonta Smith are also there. Maybe Gregory Rousseau too.
Chinatown88
Daniels QB3
JojoTheWhale
CORN BOY
- May 22, 2008
- 33,536
- 104,740
Chinatown88
Daniels QB3
Hollywood Cannon
I'm Away From My Desk
I’m glad to hear this. It’ll be a joy to watch his final year. I’ve seen some mocks having him go first so just wanted to check and see what you thought.
JojoTheWhale
CORN BOY
- May 22, 2008
- 33,536
- 104,740
I would be shocked if they were anywhere outside of the middle class 6-10 to 10-6 corridor, depending on how single score games go.
By the way, single score records that are extremely positive or negative are one of the best ways to identify Win Totals worth playing for the next season. It's not repeatable.
LegionOfDoom91
Registered User
I think the draft next year more so starts at #3 with some variation of Lawerence & Fields going #1-2.
- Status
