OT: Philadelphia Eagles (NFL): Draft Month (First Round - April 29th)

[JojoTheWhale]

For all we know, Lawrence (who is supposed to be as safe a pick as it gets) will start immediately, not be ready, get overwhelmed, and learn how to survive and tread water instead of really thrive and dominate play. Then he just plateaus for years instead of becoming the dominant star many expect.

QBs are hard. First round QBs are even harder because of the situation they're gonna be in is very sink-or-swim and can sabotage them, as @Striiker would say. Especially since they are on those teams presumably because those teams are missing a hell of a lot more than a QB.

Everyone can bust. I just keep saying over and over again no one is good at drafting.

I do think it's useful to look for places where the NFL keeps missing more than qualities successful players have. The hit rate of 1st round QBs who can't create outside of structure in the last X years is minuscule for example. That encompasses very different players like Darnold and Haskins.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Everyone can bust. I just keep saying over and over again no one is good at drafting.

I do think it's useful to look for places where the NFL keeps missing more than qualities successful players have. The hit rate of 1st round QBs who can't create outside of structure in the last X years is minuscule for example. That encompasses very different players like Darnold and Haskins.

Drafting might be 25% of the battle. The rest is development, which involves a range of skills and work by both team and player, and patience and yet more luck.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

Everyone can bust. I just keep saying over and over again no one is good at drafting.

I do think it's useful to look for places where the NFL keeps missing more than qualities successful players have. The hit rate of 1st round QBs who can't create outside of structure in the last X years is minuscule for example. That encompasses very different players like Darnold and Haskins.

I can't remember the exact quote...but my favorite quote about picking in NFL Draft goes something like:

"The NFL Draft is guesswork masquerading as science"

 

[Striiker]

For all we know, Lawrence (who is supposed to be as safe a pick as it gets) will start immediately, not be ready, get overwhelmed, and learn how to survive and tread water instead of really thrive and dominate play. Then he just plateaus for years instead of becoming the dominant star many expect.

QBs are hard. First round QBs are even harder because of the situation they're gonna be in is very sink-or-swim and can sabotage them, as @Striiker would say. Especially since they are on those teams presumably because those teams are missing a hell of a lot more than a QB.

I’m not allowed to be in this thread but great use of the term “sabotage”

 

[Beef Invictus]

I can't remember the exact quote...but my favorite quote about picking in NFL Draft goes something like:

"The NFL Draft is guesswork masquerading as science"

The real question is "will this dude understand what he's gonna be seeing on the field?" And the gap between college and pro in that regard is so massive that you won't know until you know. Some guys showcase abilities that indicate they have a high chance of doing that, but the gap is so big that everyone could be wrong about that.

 

[phlflyer1]

If Hurts wins 6-8 games we shouldn't draft a QB or move up to draft a QB.

6-8 wins next year likely tells us very little about Hurts given that the Eagles play in the NFC Least and their schedule overall is quite weak. Certainly not enough to preclude looking at going in a different direction at QB if a better option is out there.

 

[deadhead]

I can't remember the exact quote...but my favorite quote about picking in NFL Draft goes something like:

"The NFL Draft is guesswork masquerading as science"

So is economics and finance for the most part.

 

[deadhead]

Notice I said think. Not know. No one including me knows what any draft pick is, be it Lawrence or Luck. The order you acquire them doesn't matter. Should you be the Bengals and put Burrows behind that OL last year? Of course not. There's a massive difference between building the rest of the team first and that. It only grows as QBs get pushed up draft boards year after year.

I can only say so many times that's my process. But still we get, "WHAT DO YOU WANT TO DO JUST DRAFT A QB EVERY YEAR????"

And that's the problem, draft position doesn't seem to correspond with the odds of success.
Mahomes at #10 succeeds, where most of the #1 and #2s struggled. Maybe b/c he went to the right team and the right coach.
Was Allen built into a top 3 or is he going to be the next Wentz, a year where everything went right then he regresses to his "norm."

I mean look at the top QBs of the last decade, Brees #32, Rodgers #24, Brady 6th rd, Wilson 3rd rd, Big Ben #11, Mahomes #10, Favre #33.
Elite QBs are unpredictable and seem to occur almost randomly.

QBs picked at the top of the draft who won SBs?

Peyton, but second time he was a caretaker shell
Eli, but does anyone think he was an elite QB?
John Elway
Troy Aikman (3)
Steve Young, but that was the supplemental draft

meanwhile, SBs during that same stretch were won by Foles, Flacco, D Williams, Dilfer, Rypien, Simms.
So 6 JAGs, 7 Brady, and 17 for the rest over the last 30 years.

Given that the supply of capable QBs is increasing, due to the increased emphasis on the passing game in HS and college, the difference between the top and the next tier should narrow over time. And you might as well just keep processing 'em until you get lucky, instead of reaching for one.

So build at team to win with a good QB, set up a situation where you can maximize the talent of any QB you obtain, and cross your fingers.

 

[Beef Invictus]

And that's the problem, draft position doesn't seem to correspond with the odds of success.
Mahomes at #10 succeeds, where most of the #1 and #2s struggled. Maybe b/c he went to the right team and the right coach.
Was Allen built into a top 3 or is he going to be the next Wentz, a year where everything went right then he regresses to his "norm."

I mean look at the top QBs of the last decade, Brees #32, Rodgers #24, Brady 6th rd, Wilson 3rd rd, Big Ben #11, Mahomes #10, Favre #33.
Elite QBs are unpredictable and seem to occur almost randomly.

QBs picked at the top of the draft who won SBs?

Peyton, but second time he was a caretaker shell
Eli, but does anyone think he was an elite QB?
John Elway
Troy Aikman (3)
Steve Young, but that was the supplemental draft

meanwhile, SBs during that same stretch were won by Foles, Flacco, D Williams, Dilfer, Rypien, Simms.
So 6 JAGs, 7 Brady, and 17 for the rest over the last 30 years.

Given that the supply of capable QBs is increasing, due to the increased emphasis on the passing game in HS and college, the difference between the top and the next tier should narrow over time. And you might as well just keep processing 'em until you get lucky, instead of reaching for one.

So build at team to win with a good QB, set up a situation where you can maximize the talent of any QB you obtain, and cross your fingers.

Mahomes sat and developed for a year. Most 1s and 2s play immediately.

There's a correlation between QBs having time to ease into the league succeeding, and QBs who start immediately busting.

 

[FLYguy3911]

QBs that start early are generally going to bad teams and situations which is as important as anything when talking about outcomes.

 

[deadhead]

Mahomes sat and developed for a year. Most 1s and 2s play immediately.

There's a correlation between QBs having time to ease into the league succeeding, and QBs who start immediately busting.

Of course, is it because they sit or because they go to teams good enough (or HCs secure enough) to let them sit?

Mahomes sat behind Alex Smith and they still made the playoffs (4 of 5 years).
McNabb sat behind Pederson b/c Lurie didn't pressure AR to play him.
Rodgers sat behind Favre, Brady behind Bledsoe, Young behind Montana, Brees behind Flutie.
Eli came in half way through his rookie season.
Peyton was thrown into the fire like Wentz,

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Was Allen built into a top 3 or is he going to be the next Wentz, a year where everything went right then he regresses to his "norm."

I will say that we know 2020 Allen succeeded in more repeatable ways than 2017 Wentz. Therefore I have more hope than I did then. But pointing out that we're not sure is completely fair.

I mean look at the top QBs of the last decade, Brees #32, Rodgers #24, Brady 6th rd, Wilson 3rd rd, Big Ben #11, Mahomes #10, Favre #33.
Elite QBs are unpredictable and seem to occur almost randomly.

Most of those guys were drafted into a completely different league. The importance of the QB position is growing at a rapid pace and it's pushing them up draft boards considerably. Mahomes is relevant though.

There have been 17 QBs taken in the first round in the last 4 years. Here's a list of every draft in the Super Bowl era prior to 2018 with 4+ 1st round QBs: 2012, 2011, 2004, 2003, 1999, and 1983. The shift is not small.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Of course, is it because they sit or because they go to teams good enough (or HCs secure enough) to let them sit?

Mahomes sat behind Alex Smith and they still made the playoffs (4 of 5 years).
McNabb sat behind Pederson b/c Lurie didn't pressure AR to play him.
Rodgers sat behind Favre, Brady behind Bledsoe, Young behind Montana, Brees behind Flutie.
Eli came in half way through his rookie season.
Peyton was thrown into the fire like Wentz,

It's likely a combination of both things.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

So is economics and finance for the most part.

Sure, but that doesn't really add anything to this discussion about player evaluation.

 

[deadhead]

Most of those guys were drafted into a completely different league. The importance of the QB position is growing at a rapid pace and it's pushing them up draft boards considerably. Mahomes is relevant though.

There have been 17 QBs taken in the first round in the last 4 years. Here's a list of every draft in the Super Bowl era prior to 2018 with 4+ 1st round QBs: 2012, 2011, 2004, 2003, 1999, and 1983. The shift is not small.

QBs have always been important, someone once said the QB is your most important player, the second most important, the backup QB.

The passing game is more important than it used to be, but while it means the QB does more, the improvement in QBs means the difference between QBs is far less - in the past, you had a lot of marginal passers, now almost any starting QB is at least decent if not solid in that regard. Look at QB ratings and how they've bunched together the last few years (a very flawed stat, I prefer QBR or the proprietary ratings, but it shows how raw passing skill has become routine).

There are two reasons QBs get drafted higher more, the improvements in QB quality so that they're closer to NFL ready and are easier to project in terms of raw skill, and the perception by teams that they have to have a QB (over paying for bottom third quality).

Look at the Rams trading for Stafford, talk about a gross overpay for a 33 year old QB with only 2 10+ win seasons. Now his best seasons have occurred between 28-32, but it's not like his peak is Peyton or Rodgers, so he doesn't have a lot of room to decline.

 

[Chinatown88]

 

[BrindamoursNose]

Feels weird Schefter released the Aaron Rodgers story the day of the Draft when he had the info for a while.

 

[Jtown]

And that's the problem, draft position doesn't seem to correspond with the odds of success.
Mahomes at #10 succeeds, where most of the #1 and #2s struggled. Maybe b/c he went to the right team and the right coach.
Was Allen built into a top 3 or is he going to be the next Wentz, a year where everything went right then he regresses to his "norm."

I mean look at the top QBs of the last decade, Brees #32, Rodgers #24, Brady 6th rd, Wilson 3rd rd, Big Ben #11, Mahomes #10, Favre #33.
Elite QBs are unpredictable and seem to occur almost randomly.

QBs picked at the top of the draft who won SBs?

Peyton, but second time he was a caretaker shell
Eli, but does anyone think he was an elite QB?
John Elway
Troy Aikman (3)
Steve Young, but that was the supplemental draft

meanwhile, SBs during that same stretch were won by Foles, Flacco, D Williams, Dilfer, Rypien, Simms.
So 6 JAGs, 7 Brady, and 17 for the rest over the last 30 years.

Given that the supply of capable QBs is increasing, due to the increased emphasis on the passing game in HS and college, the difference between the top and the next tier should narrow over time. And you might as well just keep processing 'em until you get lucky, instead of reaching for one.

So build at team to win with a good QB, set up a situation where you can maximize the talent of any QB you obtain, and cross your fingers.

its also about who drafts you and how they draft you. Ideally a qb is going to encounter most success from a team that drafts him with their original pick. Now look at a guy like Justin Fields. He is put in the worst postion to succeed made worst by the bears trading a first for him. So not only does he not have any help this year but he has no immediate help coming next year. And by then the coaching staff is gone. Basically justin fields was put in a no win situation.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

 

[DancingPanther]

f***s sake

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Emory Jones?

 

[FLYguy3911]

Renner has been hyping up Emory Jones for a bit now. Can't say I've seen it, but he hasn't had much opportunity to throw the ball.

 

[Chinatown88]

I look forward to all the QB discussion leading up to the draft only for Howie to do a Howie and take Evan Neal.

 

[FLYguy3911]

 

[BrindamoursNose]

Was hoping we'd pickup KJ.

He's almost never healthy, but free is free and we could use him.