Value of: Phil Kessel

[Liferleafer]

You're not going to replace Kessel's production most likely if you trade him, I don't think anyone really expects that. You may be able to replace Kessel by committee, with Schultz taking over his spot on the PP and getting a better ES player than Kessel in that trade, but no one will individually be able to replace his production. However, you don't need to replace his production to end up a better team by trading him. There are 3 massive problems I see with Kessel on the Penguins:

1. He doesn't fit well with Crosby or Malkin, and he doesn't want to play on the 3rd line.
2. His play away from the puck has always been really bad, to the point where he's actively hurting you if he's not producing.
3. Kessel has already started to show some decline this year, to the point where I don't want to be the team holding the Kessel bomb when it blows up. It's not an if, it's a when. Kessel is going to fall off a cliff at some point, I just don't know when that is.

In 2019, Kessel only has 7 goals and 27 points in 36 games. Of those, only 3 goals and 15 points are at ES. In this sample size, he's on pace for 7 ES goals and 34 ES points per 82 games, while being an even bigger liability defensively than he normally is. His powerplay production isn't even close to worth it if this is his new normal going forward. Kessel has good stats on the year because he had a really strong start to the year, but he has been horrendous the last 3 months. I would pick the safety of trading him, when you'd probably get a good return for him, over gambling on his last 3 months being his new normal going forward. If he fit better with Crosby or Malkin, that might be different. If he wouldn't be so bad away from the puck, that might be different. But it's a combination of all of those 3 that makes him a must-move unless he has an incredible run to end the year.

Basically, I view Kessel to have multiple red flags and keeping him isn't worth the risk for a team that can survive without him. The risk of him falling off and becoming an albatross, which is completely possible if his new normal is what he has been for the last 3 months, is worse than them prematurely trading him IMO. The Penguins don't lack the top end talent for the gamble of keeping Kessel to be worth it.

This a dam good and well thought out post.

 

[Dominance]

I believe I saw a Wild fan suggest Zucker + 2nd for Kessel. While I would do that, I’d prefer something a bit closer to the NHL, considering the Penguins’ window.

Zucker + Shaw + 3rd for Kessel

Zucker + Dewar + 4th for Kessel

Would those be acceptable, Wild fans?

 

[mpp9]

Kind of tough to gauge what his value would be. Produces very well for his price point, but kind of the poster boy for one dimensional winger. I would be concerned a team in the midst of their Cup window like the Penguins were trying to move him. For a team that's trying to compete now futures don't really make a ton of sense. Maybe they move him in the summer for a bit of a loss to try and fit Panarin in?

We brought him in originally to have a guy who can help break a game open when 87 and 71 were getting shut down. He did that especially in the 15-16 Cup running his own line. That's not feasible long term as star players want prime offensive minutes with the best players. Problem is there's no natural chemistry between him and 87/71. They get by on stretches just by outskilling the opposition. I'd argue it's because Phil is shit without the puck and is better off having a line built to cater to him.

With the arrival of Guentzel being a far better ES scorer, the dire need for Kessel and catering to him isn't required anymore. We're better off finding a guy who helps Malkin do his thing. Help him defensively, get him the puck and pace for 20ish goals. At ES, there is unlikely to be a dropoff. Such a player likely isn't getting paid near 7 mil like Kessel, so cap savings is a nice bonus. And ideally, said player is in his mid to late 20s so we can extend our window a bit and not worry every year if this is the year Kessel drops off a cliff.

 

[Mackiaveli]

3 years left at 6.8 mil. Has been a PPG player. Offensive specialist. Ignoring the partial NTC, what kind of value does Kessel have?

I would offer Shaw, our 2019 1st, our 2020 2nd, and Ikonen. Not sure Kessel is worth moving any of our blue chips for, but he's definitely a player that would be incredibly impactful in Montreal.

 

[ole ole]

What about his value to a contending team or a team who wants a piece to increase their competitiveness? Like the Habs as an example.

Habs easily pass,We don't have a Crosby /Malkin for Kessels to leach off.

 

[ole ole]

I would offer Shaw, our 2019 1st, our 2020 2nd, and Ikonen. Not sure Kessel is worth moving any of our blue chips for, but he's definitely a player that would be incredibly impactful in Montreal.

UGG ,That's terrible for the Habs.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I mostly agree, but how do you hate Phil? He did his job with the leafs. Signed a fair deal - got traded. Compared to deals matthews and nylander signed, he was the only one taking a cut.

Not a commentary on Phil one way or another, but when Phil signed his deal $8M/year was 12% of the cap. Matthews' deal is going to be 14% of the cap starting next year. So not that different $-wise when factoring in inflation of the cap.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Going solely off of Penguins players (who I know the best), the ideal line for Phil is something like:

Penguins Hagelin-J Staal-Kessel

I didn't say "Bonino" because I simply think that combo was a 1-year lightning in a bottle that worked (on a juggernaut team as 2016 Penguins were by the time the playoffs arrived). But if a team happens to have the equivalent players to Good Hagelin and Jordan Staal sitting around, you should really value the opportunity to take Phil Kessel for a spin at $20.4M/3 years.

Your owner may like the cash savings as well - I think his cap exceeds the actual cash outlay by something like $5M over this timeframe with his frontloaded contract and Toronto retaining salary. *I could be wrong here.

 

[Ryan Michaels]

I mostly agree, but how do you hate Phil? He did his job with the leafs. Signed a fair deal - got traded. Compared to deals matthews and nylander signed, he was the only one taking a cut.

I disagree with the premise that he took a "cut" even compared to Matthews considering where the cap was when he was signed. And, this through no fault of his own, as much is made about the Leafs handing out contracts to their star players despite not having won anything we at least are making the playoffs for a third straight year, as opposed to handing out boat anchor contracts to an awful core, also Leafs retained salary to move Phil for anything of value so it wasn't seen as a "cut" league wide.

My biggest problems with Phil are his style of play, its not ideal for a player, especially a top end player getting paid like your franchise player, to play as lazy as he did. Obviously he was very good at what he did, collecting points playing run and gun and nothing else and he "did his job" on a bad team so I appreciate him for that, well, up until... the day he decided to stop. Phil played 1 damn year of that contract because within 365 days of his 8 year commitment he totally gave up to an extent that was almost shocking. I know, I know, its hfboards so the media drove Phil out but thats not really true. And I know he rubbed their noes in it, and everyone loves Phil now, and Steve Simmonds is, in fact, a moron, but Phil drove Phil out of Toronto.

Anyway, "hate" was probably a strong word but I guess this is why I don't love Phil as a player or his time in Toronto. I was still happy to see him win his cups, though the Conn Smythe talk still bothers me because we're talking about oppertunistic Phil putting up a couple more points than Crosby who dominated every inch of the ice but...I digress. And obviously as I said he's still a hell of an offensive player, I'm not surprised Pens fans are tired of him its bound to happen with a player like that, and at his sub-7 Cap hit(thanks to MLSE) against the rising cap his contract definitely shouldn't be a factor.

Sorry for the short story but you asked.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

Kessel was a fabulous player, who drove play, while scoring big goals. Isn’t he kind of getting to the end of his career though?

These last two seasons have been his most productive of the last five years, so he's still producing points, which is where his value has always been.

He just has an unusually low shooting percentage since the new year, so when Kessel isn't scoring at ES, people are always going to get upset with his all around game. Im even watching him more closely now trying to see whats going on TBTH. That's just the nature of his game.

He's still getting great chances, literally had three golden ones last game, but he's snakebitten and probably struggling with confidence.

However, I'm going to disagree with this narrative he doesn't look good with Crosby. He rarely plays with him, and when he does they always look good together. However, they rarely stay together long, because Crosby doesn't want to play with him apparently.

Kessel doesn't want to play on the third line, and I can't blame him. Malkin has been struggling this season as well, and if Kessel doesn't want to play on the third line and Crosby doesn't want to play with him... that doesn't leave many options... except to keep two struggling guys together.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Kessel was a fabulous player, who drove play, while scoring big goals. Isn’t he kind of getting to the end of his career though?

At age 31? Coming off a career year? Scoring around a PPG this year? He has his warts but Kessel has several good years left.

 

[mpp9]

Habs easily pass,We don't have a Crosby /Malkin for Kessels to leach off.

You're exactly the type of team he'd thrive on. Kessel isn't a leech. He's an offensive catalyst that needs linemates who help defensively, do the corner work and get him the puck. You have multiple players who fit the bill there.

He's not gonna cost a ton because he's older and while on a good contract for his production, 6.8 mil is still a lot for teams to take on.

Problem is I doubt he has any interest in going to a Canadian market again.

 

[PensandCaps]

I'd do Kessel for Dvorak+Goligoski from arizona maybe a 2nd added.

 

[Fatass]

At age 31? Coming off a career year? Scoring around a PPG this year? He has his warts but Kessel has several good years left.

Usually hands, on the elite skilled guys, is the first to go. Kessel, IMO, is a top elite skilled player. He’s not scoring now though, which is, to me, his hands are going. Next to go are the legs, and then overall strength. He’s one of my favourite players to watch, but I think we’re seeing the decline, which could be rapid.

 

[Mosby]

I'd do Kessel for Dvorak+Goligoski from arizona maybe a 2nd added.

Arizona won’t move Dvo.

 

[PensandCaps]

Arizona won’t move Dvo.

Thats whod id want. Reminds me if Guentzel does everything well, very smart player

 

[Menzinger]

Man, Kessel is still grossly underrated in this thread...

 

[ole ole]

You're exactly the type of team he'd thrive on. Kessel isn't a leech. He's an offensive catalyst that needs linemates who help defensively, do the corner work and get him the puck. You have multiple players who fit the bill there.

He's not gonna cost a ton because he's older and while on a good contract for his production, 6.8 mil is still a lot for teams to take on.

Problem is I doubt he has any interest in going to a Canadian market again.

We just traded a Kessel type in Patches. We don't want another one back.

 

[Nakawick]

We just traded a Kessel type in Patches. We don't want another one back.

Partches might be worth 8 points in the standings

 

[mpp9]

We just traded a Kessel type in Patches. We don't want another one back.

I'd argue Drouin is that type of player but he doesn't have the production to match it.

 

[simon IC]

You're not going to replace Kessel's production most likely if you trade him, I don't think anyone really expects that. You may be able to replace Kessel by committee, with Schultz taking over his spot on the PP and getting a better ES player than Kessel in that trade, but no one will individually be able to replace his production. However, you don't need to replace his production to end up a better team by trading him. There are 3 massive problems I see with Kessel on the Penguins:

1. He doesn't fit well with Crosby or Malkin, and he doesn't want to play on the 3rd line.
2. His play away from the puck has always been really bad, to the point where he's actively hurting you if he's not producing.
3. Kessel has already started to show some decline this year, to the point where I don't want to be the team holding the Kessel bomb when it blows up. It's not an if, it's a when. Kessel is going to fall off a cliff at some point, I just don't know when that is.

In 2019, Kessel only has 7 goals and 27 points in 36 games. Of those, only 3 goals and 15 points are at ES. In this sample size, he's on pace for 7 ES goals and 34 ES points per 82 games, while being an even bigger liability defensively than he normally is. His powerplay production isn't even close to worth it if this is his new normal going forward. Kessel has good stats on the year because he had a really strong start to the year, but he has been horrendous the last 3 months. I would pick the safety of trading him, when you'd probably get a good return for him, over gambling on his last 3 months being his new normal going forward. If he fit better with Crosby or Malkin, that might be different. If he wouldn't be so bad away from the puck, that might be different. But it's a combination of all of those 3 that makes him a must-move unless he has an incredible run to end the year.

Basically, I view Kessel to have multiple red flags and keeping him isn't worth the risk for a team that can survive without him. The risk of him falling off and becoming an albatross, which is completely possible if his new normal is what he has been for the last 3 months, is worse than them prematurely trading him IMO. The Penguins don't lack the top end talent for the gamble of keeping Kessel to be worth it.

Wow. Good post! I don't want him anywhere near my Blues.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Partches might be worth 8 points in the standings

Tatar was easily worth 8 points in the standings in Patches place. No interest in Kessel.

 

[ThreeOfAPerfectPair]

So what's Phil's value now in a flat cap year and with Arizona desperately shedding money.

 

[Gurglesons]

So what's Phil's value now in a flat cap year and with Arizona desperately shedding money.

NTC means its about 0 unless he wants out. But after being in basically the three worst media markets in hockey, I'm sure he is stoked on no taxes and chilling in the desert. Plus he is only owed 12 mil.

 

[rt]

So what's Phil's value now in a flat cap year and with Arizona desperately shedding money.

He’s only due $1m in actual cash this season. So I’m sure Arizona is fine just keeping him. He’s likely to produce great value for points per dollar this season.