Confirmed Signing with Link: [PHI] Travis Konecny re-signs with Flyers (6 years, $5.5M AAV)

[Torontoborn]

Back again? I guess you needed a break from discussing the Sharks still being winless.

5 points for TK in 2 games so far.

Oh yeah what a bust!

 

[1865]

22 goals until he’s hit his ceiling.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

5 points in 2 games now. All I said was he needed a chance under a good NHL coach. TK is making those that called him a 47-49 pts player look silly right now. Always loved this kid. 5.5 looking mighty good right now.

 

[StoneHands]

I haven’t? Okay, let me use simple bullet points.

- He plays 2nd/3rd line tweener minutes.
- His play driving metrics are mediocre in those minutes.
- His individual scoring is good, but not good enough to offset the other two factors, and especially not so when you consider that his elite linemates are heavily inflating his scoring.



Konecny has averaged over 14 minutes per game in every season of his career and in the season that you’re referencing - his age 21 season where he scored 49 points - he averaged 15:16 TOI/GP.

You’d think you wouldn’t call other people out them for their opinions when you don’t even know how many minutes your team’s player plays.

I still find it hilarious that you base your opinion on time on ice and not actual production or who he plays with. So Konecny plays 2nd/3rd line minutes but somehow he plays with elite linemates? Are you saying that his elite linemates are also 2nd/3rd line tweeners or it possible that maybe Hakstol, who was an idiot, was burying him with 4th liners for a stretch of the last two seasons which lowered his TOI? By your logic Couture and Hertl are both 2nd liners because they had the 4th and 5th highest ES TOI last season and Malkin has never been a 1st line center while Crosby is healthy. Production is irrelevant to you, it's all about TOI unless someone says Provorov and his 25 minutes per game is a 1st pairing defenseman, then all the sudden production matters.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Ok, but you’re going to look pretty silly when he finishes the season with 123 goals and 82 assists.

Also, everyone knows Sasso is a Hawks fan!

But for real, how much scoring does he need to do for you to readjust your thinking? He’s also not on the same line as Giroux at the moment.

Ah yes, he’s a Hawks fan, but Giroux is better than Toews!

For me it’s less about scoring and more about play driving. If a guy plays tweeter minutes and struggles to drive play, I just don’t think scoring rates in limited minutes with two elite players like Couturier/Giroux mean all that much. If he climbed into the top-30 for forwards by 5V5 scoring I could see it.

Back again? I guess you needed a break from discussing the Sharks still being winless.

5 points for TK in 2 games so far.

Um, you do realize that somebody else tagged me in this thread, because they thought it would be a good idea to try and gloat after a 2 game sample, don’t you? And you do realize that gloating after a 2-game, or 4-game sample is...not very smart?

I still find it hilarious that you base your opinion on time on ice and not actual production or who he plays with. So Konecny plays 2nd/3rd line minutes but somehow he plays with elite linemates? Are you saying that his elite linemates are also 2nd/3rd line tweeners or it possible that maybe Hakstol, who was an idiot, was burying him with 4th liners for a stretch of the last two seasons which lowered his TOI? By your logic Couture and Hertl are both 2nd liners because they had the 4th and 5th highest ES TOI last season and Malkin has never been a 1st line center while Crosby is healthy. Production is irrelevant to you, it's all about TOI unless someone says Provorov and his 25 minutes per game is a 1st pairing defenseman, then all the sudden production matters.

His most common forward linemates last season were Claude Giroux and Sean Couturier. Those are two elite players. His time on ice per game was 15:16, which was 194th among forwards. 31 multiplied by 6 is 186, so on average, each team has 6 forwards who played more minutes than him. Your team in particular had 5 forwards who played at least 1:17 more than him, and Nolan Patrick played 11 fewer seconds. Those are 2nd/3rd line tweener minutes.

Konecny played 14:59 TOI/GP (7th among Flyers forwards, behind Scott Laughton) AFTER Hakstol was fired. That was A) 7th among Flyers forwards, B) 54 fewer seconds than Scott Laughton, C) 201st among forwards league-wide, and D) fewer minutes than Hakstol played him for per game. His minutes were reduced after Hakstol was fired so not sure why you keep bringing Hakstol up.

Hertl was 49th in TOI/GP for forwards. Couture was 62nd. Malkin at the age of 32 was 55th. By comparison, Konecny is 194th...so, no? What the heck were you thinking trying to make those comparisons?

Provorov’s production isn’t exactly anything special. He’s 30th in 5V5 P/60 among defensemen with at least 2,500 minutes over the past 2 seasons, but he also gets out-scored over that sample by your new offensive dynamo Justin Braun. And he’s got a pretty high secondary assist rate which could be due to playing with two elite forwards. Regardless, while that’s “top-pair scoring”, it’s not nearly enough for me to disregard his awful underlying metrics in his role. And a bonus fact, over the past two years, his PP scoring rate of 1.53 points/60 is DEAD LAST among defensemen with at least 200 minutes there. I know you were probably not talking about PP and I won’t hold that against him here since we’re talking about 1st pair performance which is generally at ES or 5V5, but it’s worth noting.

 

[Curufinwe]

We have 2+ seasons of TK producing at a 1st line level. You better get used to it.

Imagine being so desperate that you have to resort to using Laughton's TOI/GP which includes 2:03 minutes on the PK. Time spent playing short handed has literally nothing to do with what line a forward is on. There are four lines, and they are all at even strength.

His most common forward linemates last season were (1LW) Claude Giroux and (1C) Sean Couturier.

So his most common position was 1RW. Thanks, but we already knew that.

 

[bobbythebrain]

^^JoeRooster

Going to Hockey Reference doesnt make you an expert.

Flyer fans have always known how good he is, and how the coa h grossly misused him

Picking off stats off a website and trying act like you know the player is just silly.

Just stop

 

[The Winter Soldier]

5.5 million is a fair price for a guy who's ceiling is 25 goals and 50 points a year.

I guess.

I know it's early but are you expecting TK to play 50 games this year? Unless you know something that we don't. Calling his ceiling at 50 points is not a bright idea.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

We have 2+ seasons of TK producing at a 1st line level. You better get used to it.

Imagine being so desperate that you have to resort to using Laughton's TOI/GP which includes 2:03 minutes on the PK. Time spent playing short handed has literally nothing to do with what line a forward is on. There are four lines, and they are all at even strength.



So his most common position was 1RW. Thanks, but we already knew that.

Under just the new coach, he also played fewer 5-on-5 minutes than Laughton.

 

[Tripod]

It shows what analyzing hockey has become when someone would rather a play driver but doesn't produce over someone who plays less minutes and DOES produce more.

Hmmm...so what is TK this year?

Giroux Hayes Voracek
Lindblom Couts TK
JVR Laughton Twarynski

Konecny is 4th in ES TOI behind Couts, Lindblom and Hayes. So I guess he is a 1st liner this year. But oh no, what does that mean to the rest?

Scott Laughton is 5th in ES TOI, Giroux is 6th, Voracek is 7th. So is Laughton a 2nd liner and Voracek a 3rd liner. I am so confused.

 

[StoneHands]

Ah yes, he’s a Hawks fan, but Giroux is better than Toews!

For me it’s less about scoring and more about play driving. If a guy plays tweeter minutes and struggles to drive play, I just don’t think scoring rates in limited minutes with two elite players like Couturier/Giroux mean all that much. If he climbed into the top-30 for forwards by 5V5 scoring I could see it.



Um, you do realize that somebody else tagged me in this thread, because they thought it would be a good idea to try and gloat after a 2 game sample, don’t you? And you do realize that gloating after a 2-game, or 4-game sample is...not very smart?



His most common forward linemates last season were Claude Giroux and Sean Couturier. Those are two elite players. His time on ice per game was 15:16, which was 194th among forwards. 31 multiplied by 6 is 186, so on average, each team has 6 forwards who played more minutes than him. Your team in particular had 5 forwards who played at least 1:17 more than him, and Nolan Patrick played 11 fewer seconds. Those are 2nd/3rd line tweener minutes.

Konecny played 14:59 TOI/GP (7th among Flyers forwards, behind Scott Laughton) AFTER Hakstol was fired. That was A) 7th among Flyers forwards, B) 54 fewer seconds than Scott Laughton, C) 201st among forwards league-wide, and D) fewer minutes than Hakstol played him for per game. His minutes were reduced after Hakstol was fired so not sure why you keep bringing Hakstol up.

Hertl was 49th in TOI/GP for forwards. Couture was 62nd. Malkin at the age of 32 was 55th. By comparison, Konecny is 194th...so, no? What the heck were you thinking trying to make those comparisons?

Provorov’s production isn’t exactly anything special. He’s 30th in 5V5 P/60 among defensemen with at least 2,500 minutes over the past 2 seasons, but he also gets out-scored over that sample by your new offensive dynamo Justin Braun. And he’s got a pretty high secondary assist rate which could be due to playing with two elite forwards. Regardless, while that’s “top-pair scoring”, it’s not nearly enough for me to disregard his awful underlying metrics in his role. And a bonus fact, over the past two years, his PP scoring rate of 1.53 points/60 is DEAD LAST among defensemen with at least 200 minutes there. I know you were probably not talking about PP and I won’t hold that against him here since we’re talking about 1st pair performance which is generally at ES or 5V5, but it’s worth noting.

I'm still trying to figure out how someone can play the majority of their minutes with Giroux and Couturier and put up enough ES points to comfortably place his production in 1st line territory but he's still a 2nd/3rd line tweener I guess because he doesn't play on PP1 or PK enough? What a weird thing to dig your heels in about.

Also, since when do special teams minutes factor into what line a player plays on? Couture played 30 second a game more at ES last season than Konecny. Is he a 2nd/3rd line tweener or not? It would be like saying Kevin Lablanc is a 4th liner because of his minutes. It's just a dumb thing to say.

You're really making yourself look like a fool here. Not a single person agrees with anything you're saying, including non-Flyers fans. So what is it, are you right and everyone else is wrong or is it possible that maybe, just maybe, you don't know much about the Flyers aside from looking at TOI?

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I'm still trying to figure out how someone can play the majority of their minutes with Giroux and Couturier and put up enough ES points to comfortably place his production in 1st line territory but he's still a 2nd/3rd line tweener I guess because he doesn't play on PP1 or PK enough? What a weird thing to dig your heels in about.

Also, since when do special teams minutes factor into what line a player plays on? Couture played 30 second a game more at ES last season than Konecny. Is he a 2nd/3rd line tweener or not? It would be like saying Kevin Lablanc is a 4th liner because of his minutes. It's just a dumb thing to say.

You're really making yourself look like a fool here. Not a single person agrees with anything you're saying, including non-Flyers fans. So what is it, are you right and everyone else is wrong or is it possible that maybe, just maybe, you don't know much about the Flyers aside from looking at TOI?

Konecny is also in 2nd/3rd line tweener based on ES/5V5 TOI. Nobody is digging their heels in based on special teams.

Your second argument there is just argument ad populum which is a logical fallacy. I find it funny that you’d resort to that after telling other people in a different thread about appeals to authority, but you just did. It’s a worthless argument. I don’t care if people don’t agree with me. With that being said, you’re also incorrect that nobody agrees with what I’m saying. Mouser, a very respected poster, said something very similar a few pages back:

How many 1st line wingers had 15 minutes of TOI/G last season? That TOI puts him #194 among forwards last season, just behind guys like Honostroza, Cody Eakin and Justin Abdelkader. Even if we just look at EV TOI/G of 13:38 that puts him #147 among forwards, trailing guys like Eberle, Chiasson, Hinostroza, Anisimov and Rust.

Maybe he's a 1st line forward down the road, but his stats don't show that the past "season and a half".

Beyond that, I’m very confident that if you actually polled most fans around the league asking whether or not Konecny is a 1st liner, the result would not be an emphatic yes from the vast majority.

Again, to be very clear here, I do not care what the majority has to say, as basing an opinion off of that is a logical fallacy, but I do not think you are correct about what the majority actually has to say. You are extrapolating “everybody” from a few Flyers fans in the 20th page of a signing thread on the trade board which generally becomes an echo chamber for a team’s fan base. You should go ahead and start a poll to actually prove that is the majority opinion before even resorting to that logical fallacy.

It shows what analyzing hockey has become when someone would rather a play driver but doesn't produce over someone who plays less minutes and DOES produce more.

Hmmm...so what is TK this year?

Giroux Hayes Voracek
Lindblom Couts TK
JVR Laughton Twarynski

Konecny is 4th in ES TOI behind Couts, Lindblom and Hayes. So I guess he is a 1st liner this year. But oh no, what does that mean to the rest?

Scott Laughton is 5th in ES TOI, Giroux is 6th, Voracek is 7th. So is Laughton a 2nd liner and Voracek a 3rd liner. I am so confused.

It has been 2 games.

 

[Starat327]

You guys are getting baited hard here.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Konecny is also in 2nd/3rd line tweener based on ES/5V5 TOI. Nobody is digging their heels in based on special teams.

Your second argument there is just argument ad populum which is a logical fallacy. I find it funny that you’d resort to that after telling other people in a different thread about appeals to authority, but you just did. It’s a worthless argument. I don’t care if people don’t agree with me. With that being said, you’re also incorrect that nobody agrees with what I’m saying. Mouser, a very respected poster, said something very similar a few pages back:



Beyond that, I’m very confident that if you actually polled most fans around the league asking whether or not Konecny is a 1st liner, the result would not be an emphatic yes from the vast majority.

Again, to be very clear here, I do not care what the majority has to say, as basing an opinion off of that is a logical fallacy, but I do not think you are correct about what the majority actually has to say. You are extrapolating “everybody” from a few Flyers fans in the 20th page of a signing thread on the trade board which generally becomes an echo chamber for a team’s fan base. You should go ahead and start a poll to actually prove that is the majority opinion before even resorting to that logical fallacy.



It has been 2 games.

Oh so we want to rely on people that don't watch a player's games to tell us if a player is a 1st liner? Sounds smart.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Oh so we want to rely on people that don't watch a player's games to tell us if a player is a 1st liner? Sounds smart.

Where did anybody say that I don’t watch his games?

 

[Holymakinaw]

I know it's early but are you expecting TK to play 50 games this year? Unless you know something that we don't. Calling his ceiling at 50 points is not a bright idea.

Maybe 55. But it's a long shot.

 

[StoneHands]

Konecny is also in 2nd/3rd line tweener based on ES/5V5 TOI. Nobody is digging their heels in based on special teams.

Your second argument there is just argument ad populum which is a logical fallacy. I find it funny that you’d resort to that after telling other people in a different thread about appeals to authority, but you just did. It’s a worthless argument. I don’t care if people don’t agree with me. With that being said, you’re also incorrect that nobody agrees with what I’m saying. Mouser, a very respected poster, said something very similar a few pages back:



Beyond that, I’m very confident that if you actually polled most fans around the league asking whether or not Konecny is a 1st liner, the result would not be an emphatic yes from the vast majority.

Again, to be very clear here, I do not care what the majority has to say, as basing an opinion off of that is a logical fallacy, but I do not think you are correct about what the majority actually has to say. You are extrapolating “everybody” from a few Flyers fans in the 20th page of a signing thread on the trade board which generally becomes an echo chamber for a team’s fan base. You should go ahead and start a poll to actually prove that is the majority opinion before even resorting to that logical fallacy.



It has been 2 games.

I'll ask again, is Couture also a 2nd/3rd line tweener and is Labanc a 4th liner? Production, linemates, and actual place in a lineup doesn't matter so 70 points or not, Couture is not a 1st line player and Labanc and his 56 points is nothing more than a 4th liner. TOI is all that matters here.

 

[StoneHands]

Where did anybody say that I don’t watch his games?

Well, if you watched games you would see what line Konecny plays on.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I'll ask again, is Couture also a 2nd/3rd line tweener and is Labanc a 4th liner? Production, linemates, and actual place in a lineup doesn't matter so 70 points or not, Couture is not a 1st line player and Labanc and his 56 points is nothing more than a 4th liner. TOI is all that matters here.

And I will answer again that Couture was 62nd among forwards in TOI/GP last season. How the heck are you getting 2nd/3rd line tweener from that? Labanc by comparison was 260th. So, Couture was deployed as a legit first liner, Labanc as a sheltered 3rd liner.

I have no idea what you’re getting at here.

 

[flyers0909]

And I will answer again that Couture was 62nd among forwards in TOI/GP last season. How the heck are you getting 2nd/3rd line tweener from that? Labanc by comparison was 260th. So, Couture was deployed as a legit first liner, Labanc as a sheltered 3rd liner.

I have no idea what you’re getting at here.

Why are you using TOI and not ES TOI?

 

[StoneHands]

And I will answer again that Couture was 62nd among forwards in TOI/GP last season. How the heck are you getting 2nd/3rd line tweener from that? Labanc by comparison was 260th. So, Couture was deployed as a legit first liner, Labanc as a sheltered 3rd liner.

I have no idea what you’re getting at here.

Special teams TOI has absolutely nothing to do with what line a player plays on. Why is this such a hard concept for you to grasp?

Couture was 123rd in ES TOI compared to Konecny at 147th. Going by TOI, they're both 2nd liners. Lebanc was 310th which is firmly in the 4th line range.

Production is irrelevant. Couture and Konecny are 2nd liners and Lebanc is a 4th liner by your logic.

 

[StoneHands]

Why are you using TOI and not ES TOI?

Because it doesn't fit the narrative.

 

[Tripod]

Last year Konecny was tied for 79th in ES points all while 142nd in TOI at ES(40 games played min)

3 guys on 1st line x 31 teams = 93 1st liners

So based on just ES TOI, TK played average 2nd line minutes(139.5th place is the exact median) and produced 1st line production. Only on here would that be argued to be a bad thing.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Special teams TOI has absolutely nothing to do with what line a player plays on. Why is this such a hard concept for you to grasp?

Couture was 123rd in ES TOI compared to Konecny at 147th. Going by TOI, they're both 2nd liners. Lebanc was 310th which is firmly in the 4th line range.

Production is irrelevant. Couture and Konecny are 2nd liners and Lebanc is a 4th liner by your logic.

Because the coaches probably play these guys a little less at ES due to playing them so heavily on special teams. Couture is SJ’s #2 PK’ing forward and PP forward, so it makes sense to play him a bit less at even strength. Same goes for Labanc to a lesser degree as he is the team’s #4 PP forward. Labanc was also at least 9th on his team in ESTOI/GP.

Having said all of that I could buy an argument that Couture is a 2nd liner and Labanc is a sheltered 4th liner. Not just because of TOI but because like Konecny, both are quite poor play drivers who score well but rely on their linemates to do the heavy lifting.

Last year Konecny was tied for 79th in ES points all while 142nd in TOI at ES(40 games played min)

3 guys on 1st line x 31 teams = 93 1st liners

So based on just ES TOI, TK played average 2nd line minutes(139.5th place is the exact median) and produced 1st line production. Only on here would that be argued to be a bad thing.

It’s not a bad thing. He’s a good producer. I just don’t think he should be considered a 1st liner until he actually plays 1st line minutes or significantly improves his play driving.

 

[Tripod]

It’s not a bad thing. He’s a good producer. I just don’t think he should be considered a 1st liner until he actually plays 1st line minutes or significantly improves his play driving.

And you know what, it's fine to say that. It's when you call TK a 2nd/3rd line tweener that people have the problem with.