Prospect Info: Phantoms (AHL), Reading Royals (ECHL), NCAA, Jrs., Int'l, etc.

Discussion in 'Philadelphia Flyers' started by MiamiScreamingEagles, Mar 1, 2020.

  1. JojoTheWhale Bad and Unwanted.

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    We also don't know if it will burn a year off of an ELC without games. He potentially could be in line for full or reduced payments on one year of an ELC while still attending classes. Or he could head to Europe. It's almost impossible to factor in so many key variables without inside knowledge of the process.
     
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  2. Stizzle Registered User

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    Since we don't have much happening right now, I'll continue with my Flyers prospect rankings.

    Last time I wrote up #1 & #2. They are quoted below...
    Here is #3 through #6...

    3. Cam York

    York vs Zamula is a tough call. I think York probably makes better decisions with the puck while facing a hard forecheck. That's mostly why I have him ahead. It seems like York never puts his teammates, or himself, in bad spots. He has an unflappable quality about him. It reminds me of Timonen a little.

    At the WJC, York was, admittedly, banged up physically. He found himself fighting to receive any sliver of even strength ice time at all. Mostly relegated to #7 status at 5v5 and PP2 duties. A scenario he surely never encountered before.

    So, naturally, we did not see his best showing. Next year should be a totally different story. I assume he'll be the main guy on USA's blue line.

    At Michigan, he was a total beast. I'm not sure he could have done more. Michigan was not a sexy team. It was impressive to see him adjust smoothly from playing with such skilled players last year, to such pedestrian skill this year.

    Any thought that he was simply propped up by playing on an All-Star team during his draft year was, to some degree, alleviated. I think he made the absolute most out of what he had to work with at Michigan. Every game I watched was a quality performance by York.

    ---

    4. Egor Zamula

    Zamula plays with more pizzazz than York. You notice him more. He's just a really fun player to watch. Zamula has also consistently shown well when the pressure is on. He's shined in both the WJC and preseason NHL games.

    Before the 2019 draft, I wrote about not wanting a left-handed defenseman in the 1st round. Partly because I believed in Zamula so much. I still stand by that today. Zamula has a ton of confidence and the "it" factor. I think he'll help bring swagger to the team. In a similar way Hayes and TK do.

    Zamula will make some reckless plays, every so often. He'll try to move the puck to a dangerous area, or get a little overzealous versus a forecheck. It's almost as if Zamula is so brash, he does not think the opposition has the ability to steal the puck from him.

    That's hardly the worst trait to have, though. He's like the anti-Hagg, who is totally unwilling to move the puck in transition at all. Zamula has balls, smarts, skill, and confidence. He is a very good prospect that will be a net positive all over the ice.

    ---

    5) Tanner Laczynski

    A few of us here think Laczynski has more offense than the majority realizes. To put it lightly, OSU checks all the boxes of a stereotypical bland college system. It definitely handcuffed him, but he still showed his offensive chops nonetheless.

    He's a real big kid with, imo, no real holes. I honestly like everything about Laczynski's game. He excels on the boards and down low. He has good vision and smarts. He'll make a very nice support power forward, who can complement smaller linemates.

    I think you can play this kid all over your lineup. He's pretty versatile. I love his game on the wing, but you might be able to play him at center if absolutely necessary also.

    Overall, I just have a real high opinion of Laczynski. He probably doesn't have upside like the players ranked ahead of him, but he's a rock solid player every team needs to win.

    ---

    6) Noah Cates

    Cates has some noticeable similarities to Laczynski. I think Cates is ahead mentally, but easily behind Laczynski in physical gifts and offensive awareness. Both fit the mold of a big framed support forward with some skill.

    Cates is probably destined for a heavy PK role in the NHL. Offensively, he has nice hands around the net, and of course his big calling card is his mind.

    I'd love to see Cates skating improve a smidge. That would really put him over the top, and is my only real worry about him translating to the NHL.

    At his current trajectory, he's a pretty safe projection as a bottom of the roster NHL winger who PK's well. I think he's a real betting favorite to carve out a legit big league career.

    I can't say with confidence that any other prospect, left on my list, has nearly the odds Cates has. May it be because of injury history, consistency, an unclear future role, etc. So, I'm comfortable having Cates take a high spot on my list. Even over some higher ceiling players.

    ***Sandin not under consideration ATM because I'm not sure if we're counting him as a prospect. Plus, I've never seen him play.
     
  3. DancingPanther May the four winds blow you safely home

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    Ok now do a one sentence summary for each player, with each summary consisting of 10 words or less.
     
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  4. TB87 The Artist Formerly Known As Ted Brown

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    This was great! Love reading your stuff. Laczynski is a lot better than that vast majority of Flyers fans realize. Lots of scoreboard watching going on with that player in particular on the internet's
     
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  5. deadhead Registered User

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    I have no problem with this list except one point - I don't think Brink will end up as good as Farabee.

    Brink will be exceptional offensively, but he'll struggle to be even average defensively, due to both size and skating, although his skating has improved, he's unlikely to be as fast as G, so he's not going to out skate mistakes on a regular basis. It'll come down to his committing to a two way game like Sidney, and not letting his offense become an excuse for lackadaisical defense like Kane and DeBrincat.

    Farabee doesn't have the offensive skill package of Brink, but he has more upside because he's not close to filling out his body, when he physically matures he's going to be a full sized forward able to fill any role. While he doesn't have Brink's skill package, he's an extremely high IQ player with the knack of always being in the right spot - his problem this season has been his lack of strength and experience with much smaller windows. And while he doesn't have exceptional skills, he has very good all around skills, there's no holes in his game. I think he'll end up in the mold of Couts and Stone with better skates, but like them, it'll take him 3-4 more years to reach that level. I put him above Frost for that reason.

    I think Cates will end up as a 4C who will eventually move up to 3C, I don't think he has the offensive skills for a top 6 role from what I saw from him, but will be one of those guys who is a great defensive stalwart who develops a solid offensive game and becomes an unsung hero anchoring the bottom six. I see him as a center in the NHL with a coach like AV who likes physical centers who are responsible defensively, in another scheme his lack of speed might move him to wing.
     
  6. TB87 The Artist Formerly Known As Ted Brown

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    “Brink is bad defensively and his skating is still a serious weakness.”

    =

    The “I barely watched him play this past season outside of maybe the WJC” starter kit.
     
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  7. Curufinwe Registered User

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    Couturier will never be a scorer in the NHL because his skating is so bad. :dunce:
     
  8. deadhead Registered User

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    Brink has improved his skating, but no one compares him to say, Frost.
    Frost has the kind of speed that allows you to out skate your mistakes, which gives him a bigger margin of error (same with TK).
    They still have to commit to defense, but they can get away with being a little careless.

    At the NHL level, Brink will be asked to play a lot more two way hockey against players who are faster and more skilled than what he's seen in the USHL and college. And being small is a disadvantage, shorter reach, can be knocked out of the play, etc. To deny that is silly, a few exceptional players overcome that to some extent but it's still a minus, just like lack of speed is a minus, though someone like Stone overcomes it.

    You can see where lack of mass hinders Farabee as a 19 year old, the spirit is willing but the flesh is often inadequate.
    For forwards, part of defense is back checking and helping your defensemen along the boards to retrieve the puck.
    Some of that is attitude (AV has gotten both Voracek and JVR to be more aggressive), some of that is being physical.
     
  9. deadhead Registered User

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    Who would win a race? Couts or Stone?
    Both are big strong players with high IQs who commit to the defensive side of the game.
    But most big strong players who skate like them struggle to stay in the NHL.
     
  10. FLYguy3911 Registered User

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    Can't wait for the season to start back up.
     
  11. TB87 The Artist Formerly Known As Ted Brown

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    York is bad defensively because he’s smol too. Never forget.

    Big means good at defense. Small means bad at defense. It’s easy to forget that sometimes. My favorite hockey absolutes....


    I LOVE this sport but it has the dumbest absolutes/narratives/stereotypes. There is so many more bits of context and nuance that goes into a specific player’s defensive ability beyond their size, or lack thereof. Having reach and range can be helpful but how helpful depends on the player. Can they process the play fast enough in order to cut off passing and shooting lanes with said reach and range? Or are they slow processors who’s body and stick positioning are generally a tad bit off because of their slow processing?
     
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  12. SolidSnakeUS Registered User Sponsor

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    Timonen was 5'10", so he must of been bad at defense (an inch shorter than York). That's the only f***ing possibility...
     
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  13. BrokenStix Registered User

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    And yet you both ignored the argument that is foot speed not size??

    I have no comment on Brink because I have never seen him play, but how many small slow skaters can you name in the NHL?
     
  14. SolidSnakeUS Registered User Sponsor

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    I will admit, I have no idea where the original comment came from (could of been from someone on my ignore list). Just wanted to put out some sarcasm.
     
  15. deadhead Registered User

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    The problem is some people don't understand probabilities.
    There are few small slow players, there are more slow big players and fast small players, and a handful of fast big players.
    Obviously, since this differs from the distribution in the general population, both size and speed have value in the NHL.

    Size has value (up to a point, because really big players are rarely agile and quick) or hockey players wouldn't be bigger than the average male population.
    Obviously, skating speed has value.
    So do other skills/attributes which are harder to measure, hockey IQ, eye to hand coordination, agility, etc.

    All you have to do is go down the list of top scorers, Selke top ten, Norris top ten, and so on, and note how many undersized players with average speed make those lists.

    So if a player is deficient in one area, that is a handicap, and the more deficient, the harder it is to overcome - but there are a few outliers who do compensate in other areas of their game.
    Brink may well be one of those outliers, but his size and lack of great speed will still limit him, no matter how impressive his vision, IQ and passing and shooting skills may be.
     
  16. TB87 The Artist Formerly Known As Ted Brown

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    Taking more than a little bit of a cue from @Appleyard, here are the 2001 Born 2019 NHL Drafted OHL Defenseman's rankings from this past OHL season via Non-PP Points Per Game and Non-PP Involvement%:

    Non-PP Points Per Game:
    Mason Millman: .55
    Thomas Harley: .51
    Vladislav Kolyachonok: .49
    Michael Vukojevic: .40
    Hunter Skinner: .35
    Eric Hjorth: .28
    Mathew Hill: .14
    Kalle Loponen: .13


    Non-PP Involvement%:
    Thomas Harley: 17.59
    Mason Millman: 13.96
    Vladislav Kolyachonok: 13.73
    Michael Vukojevic: 11.94
    Hunter Skinner: 10.57
    Eric Hjorth: 9.15
    Mathew Hilll: 5.28
    Kalle Loponen: 3.98



    As I always say, every day is a good day to be one of The Millmen™
     
  17. Appleyard Registered User

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    Off my 15 years of CHL drafted fwds and Dmen non-PP P/GP is pretty much the best measure of likely success in terms of correlation with level of NHL player... off publicly available data anyway. Better than P/GP, G/GP and measures of point involvement by team funilly enough.

    This year is actually quite interesting as several Dmen for the 2020 draft have some nice non PP numbers and good skillsets... but did not get too much ice time.

    Nickl would be a "usual" profile for say a guy with maybe 25% chance at NHL and selected in early 3rd. Around 0.7 P/GP and 60% of scoring on PP.

    But this year there are quite a few with ~0.3-0.4 non-PP P/GP but only 0.35-0.5 points per game... as got minimal PP time.

    Which would make me believe that maybe the CHL D class is a bit deeper than most think. It does not have too many top end... sure... but I can imagine quite a few guys taken in 3rd to 5th ending up as say #4-5 Dmen in a few years and "surprising" people.

    Ofc some guys are the types who likely will just be very good AHLers and Euro leaguers due to skillsets and traits.

    But everything I have looked at so far - including watching them to verify skillsets - gives a group of ~5 guys or so who will likely be there in maybe the 4th or so... but who odds wise ~2 will become NHLers. Which is good odds for a 4th rounder.
     
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  18. deadhead Registered User

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    I generally find non-PP scoring to be more valid at lower levels, since you can pad your stats on the PP, even if you're not the primary driver of the PP.
    It's very impressive for Millman to be at the top of the list.

    The two guys close to him:
    Thomas Harley, #18 pick, 2019
    Vladislav Kolyachonok, #52 pick, 2019

    The others:
    Michael Vukojevic #82
    Hunter Skinner #112
    Eric Hjorth #104
    Mathew Hill #186
    Kalle Loponen #204

    Shows two things, Millman was a steal, and scouts generally know what they're doing.
     
  19. TB87 The Artist Formerly Known As Ted Brown

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    I’ve heard of Nickl but I haven’t seen him play. Care to share a mini scouting report?
     
  20. FLYguy3911 Registered User

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    I've watched 4 games and he has gotten walked at least once in each game trying to deny a rush attempt at the blueline.
     
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  21. Appleyard Registered User

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    Mobile, good shot and plays a pretty "gritty" game... not scared to get involved. Also has a nice outlet.

    But makes bad reads too often and turns the puck over too much when heading up ice.

    I think he is probably a 3rd-4th rounder. There are CHL Dmen I like more if they were to take one in those rounds. But he is decent.
     
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  22. TB87 The Artist Formerly Known As Ted Brown

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    Ah, I see.
     
  23. IceCold Registered User

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    2019-20 OHL Coaches Poll Winners

    Hardest Worker:

    3. Vladislav Kolyachonok, Flint Firebirds (11)
    Best Skater:
    1. Thomas Harley, Mississauga Steelheads (30) – finished second in 2018-19
    Best Offensive Defenceman:
    2. Thomas Harley, Mississauga Steelheads (22) – finished first in 2018-19
    Best Defensive Defenceman:
    2. Michael Vukojevic, Kitchener Rangers (20)
     
  24. TB87 The Artist Formerly Known As Ted Brown

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    78E2A99B-0B14-47B1-B8D6-D24CC851D105.jpeg
     
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  25. Stizzle Registered User

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    [​IMG]
     
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