Prospect Info: Phantoms (AHL), Reading Royals (ECHL), NCAA, Jrs., Int'l, etc.

[Oskar Man]

You're overvalueing the Flyer prospects from the benefit of hindsight, at the time Sanheim wasn't considered that good, Laughton was a "fail," and Ratcliffe was a 2nd rd pick who might have been an overdraft based on his D+1 season.

1) When did I bring up Sanheim?
2) Laughton wasn't a prospect. He came off a 20 point year playing 11mins a night. Hence "cost controlled depth forward"
3) Is Ratcliffe not a B prospect?

So no. I wasn't overvaluing the Flyers prospects. You're arguing with your own imagination.

Thompson was considered a solid prospect before that trade, similar to Ratcliffe in that he's a tall forward who'll need time to develop, drafted higher (#26 not #35) but a couple years ahead, with half a NHL season under his belt as well as some AHL time.

Thompson a solid prospect? Sure. I would think the consensus would be that Ratcliffe is also a solid prospect, albeit with a not as high ceiling.

The fact that you had to add Thompson being drafted 9 spots higher is odd. What exactly was the point there?

Bergland at 29 was a more expensive version of Laughton. A limited scorer but a better defensive player who had an offseason in 2017-18 but had some solid years as a 3C.
Sobotka had 27 ES points the year before he was traded, a defensive liability.

Berglund was a cap dump. He literally just walked away from 12+mil.

Sobotka is still an overpaid depth player and was included to clear space for ROR

Also, there's a difference in value between a 29 year old cap dump and a 23 year old cost controlled depth forward.

It would have taken far more than Laughton, Ratcliffe and #19 in 2018 to match St Louis' offer.

Please enlighten me

 

[Oskar Man]

You just don't know how much St.Louis valued each piece. While Laughton, Ratcliffe, Lehtera and a 1st looks decidedly more intriguing than the actual deal, it may not be that way to Buffalo. Maybe they valued Thompson significantly more than people think. Maybe they didn't consider Sobotka and Berglund cap dumps. Assuming that Botteril* really knows what he is doing and that he would value your proposed package more is a homer perspective.

That much is obvious but I put together a comparable package to make a point that we could've trumped their offer easily. Of course the Sabres may not have been high on Laughton or Ratcliffe. Also, he'd need to have his f***ing head examined if he thought anything more than both, especially in Berglund's case, as overpaid depth guys.

I never once said that the Sabres would value the Flyers package more than what they got. I simply pieced together a more palatable, in my opinion, shit salad as a comparable. One that didn't include eating salary but offered 2 cost controlled assets with decent ceilings, and a high 1st. If that makes me a homer, so be it.

 

[TheKingPin]

Writing off O'Brien after one injury plagued season in college is asinine. There is no need to do anything with him right now so lets just see how he does next year.

Hopefully a team like the jets think so. 2020 1st + JOB + Hagg

Maybe the best way to look at it, is all the shoulda, coulda, woulda things that didn't happen last year, led to Hakstol getting fired this year. So that is a plus.

If we added a ROR, or a better goalie, or a good Dman last summer, maybe Hak is still here and Hart is in the AHL still under Hextalls careful watch.

This is the summer of new beginnings!

Yea in the end this is prob the best path for greatest success.

 

[StarterHart]

Maybe the best way to look at it, is all the shoulda, coulda, woulda things that didn't happen last year, led to Hakstol getting fired this year. So that is a plus.

If we added a ROR, or a better goalie, or a good Dman last summer, maybe Hak is still here and Hart is in the AHL still under Hextalls careful watch.

This is the summer of new beginnings!

You right.

He right.

 

[macleish1974]

Holy hindsight. I know Grubauer's been on a nice run so you've been sticking your chest out lately, but he had an .890 SV% at the trade deadline!! And the main reason people didn't want to invest a whole lot into the goalie position last offseason, was because arguably the best goalie prospect in the world was turning pro. And what do you know, he was ready for the NHL a lot sooner than we all thought and he was great.

If we are going to decide if moves were smart or not based on hindsight, we know know Grubauer went for pick #47 and a cap dump who almost certainly would have played games for us over better players. So Grubauer's trade value was even less than #47. Trading the 19th overall pick for him would have been a poor move no matter how you want to slice it. No one here was pounding the table for JOB at 19. If the Flyers had drafted Miller, or Sandin, or traded back and grabbed a guy like Beaudin are we even having this discussion?

The Flyers may have whiffed on the pick, but aren't you the one telling us all the time that you don't want the Flyers to take low-ceiling guys? Well here we are. The Flyers put their bags on the table and swung for the fences when safer, easier to project players were on the board. You can't have it both ways. The Flyers are still way ahead on the amateur side of things.

Edit

 

[Psuhockey]

Couldnt get Dunn, Thomas, OR Kyrou

Yes but when the Flyers make a trade, their best prospects always have to be involved....

ROR went for what just about every good player goes for these days: an “A” asset (1st rd pick or top prospect) a “B” asset (2nd level prospect or 2nd rd pick) and something else. St Louis added a 2nd to take those cap dumps much like they added a 1st to get rid of Lehtera in the Schenn deal, upgrading the “B” to an “A”. When the rest of the league are paying these prices over and over again, why do people still believe it would have cost the Flyers two “A” assets in Sanheim and a 1st? I am sure the summer will be filled with the Flyers can’t trade for Trouba because it will cost the 11th overall and Frost.

 

[Tripod]

Yes but when the Flyers make a trade, their best prospects always have to be involved....

ROR went for what just about every good player goes for these days: an “A” asset (1st rd pick or top prospect) a “B” asset (2nd level prospect or 2nd rd pick) and something else. St Louis added a 2nd to take those cap dumps much like they added a 1st to get rid of Lehtera in the Schenn deal, upgrading the “B” to an “A”. When the rest of the league are paying these prices over and over again, why do people still believe it would have cost the Flyers two “A” assets in Sanheim and a 1st? I am sure the summer will be filled with the Flyers can’t trade for Trouba because it will cost the 11th overall and Frost.

Some Jets fans think it would be Ghost+#11...or Ghost+40+another good asset.

 

[deadhead]

St Louis gave a former 1st rd pick who was in the NHL at 20, and a 1st rd pick in 2019 (since they didn't have one in 2018).

The 2nd rd pick may have been for a cap dump, but more likely Buffalo saw the two forwards as useful short-term depth they could afford and basically got them for free, much the way we picked up Filppula in the Streit deal.

If you're putting together an equivalent Flyer deal, it would probably be something like Sanheim/Lindblom, 2018 #19, Raffl and Laughton.
Laughton didn't have much value last year, NHL at 21 then AHL at 22.
Flyers probably were asked for something like Sanheim/Lindblom and refused. And they probably didn't have anything else that Buffalo wanted.

Deals aren't about "equivalent value," they're about having something someone else wants.

 

[Psuhockey]

Some Jets fans think it would be Ghost+#11...or Ghost+40+another good asset.

Fans on these boards haven’t come to grips yet with how the NHL works in the salary cap era. The huge returns are over. Cap space and thus cheap assets are worth way more than they ever have been. Look towards the NFL to see how teams operate under the cap. Stars players go for peanuts because their cap hits are too big and high picks are seldom moved.

 

[dag54]

Hopefully a team like the jets think so. 2020 1st + JOB + Hagg



Yea in the end this is prob the best path for greatest success.

I'd gladly do that trade for Trouba, as long as he comes with an extension.

 

[TheKingPin]

I'd gladly do that trade for Trouba, as long as he comes with an extension.

Yea if we could pull that off and sign Duchene we are in great shape.

 

[Larry44]

Hopefully a team like the jets think so. 2020 1st + JOB + Hagg

There is no way OBrien, Hagg and a first get Trouba. And given what a brain dead moron Trouba looked like during the series vs St Louis, I'm not sure whether he's even worth pursuing. Besides, Gardiner is a UFA and has the market on brainfarting D cornered.

 

[Curufinwe]

Fans on these boards haven’t come to grips yet with how the NHL works in the salary cap era. The huge returns are over. Cap space and thus cheap assets are worth way more than they ever have been. Look towards the NFL to see how teams operate under the cap. Stars players go for peanuts because their cap hits are too big and high picks are seldom moved.

Yeah, Ghost's great contract makes him very valuable, even after a down year. Ghost + 11th for Trouba would be a substantial overpayment.

 

[captainpaxil]

I guess TB better not send Gourde back down, didn't they give him $4.5 x 5 years or something?

There is NOTHING to the nepotism accusation regarding the draft. I don't even really blame him for hiring Hakstol. He was a top college coach, and the fact that he had some personal experience with his son playing there is extra information to the cause. Hexy got fired largely because he stubbornly refused to fire him when it was clear it wasn't working out. Sanheim, Allison and Kalynuk are all from Manitoba, where Hexy has deep roots. I think someone in his family dated someone in Sanheim's family. If it helped reassure them of his character, so be it - it was a GREAT pick of a very good player - possibly a star in the making. Cates is from Minnesota, where Pryor is from. If you get a hot tip on a sleeper pick out of your circle of friends, why would you NOT consider it? Cates looks like a pretty good pick too.

If your scouts aren't going to mine their networks for data on players under the radar, you might as well fire them and just go by CSB lists and the Hockey News Draft Preview.

I think the nepotism did hurt us in that the son of a former flyer was the obvious next pick in the 7th and the flyers moved the pick to a team who had room for him. Jersey boy flyer connections the marketing team would've loved him. I really have a feeling we're all going to be wracking our brains why we passed on cayden primeau

 

[deadhead]

Cayden Primeau at eliteprospects.com

He's actually off to a good start, but not a lot of room at the inn.

 

[TheKingPin]

There is no way OBrien, Hagg and a first get Trouba. And given what a brain dead moron Trouba looked like during the series vs St Louis, I'm not sure whether he's even worth pursuing. Besides, Gardiner is a UFA and has the market on brainfarting D cornered.

2021 first?

 

[Rebels57]

Some Jets fans think it would be Ghost+#11...or Ghost+40+another good asset.

That's extremely funny.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Cayden Primeau at eliteprospects.com

He's actually off to a good start, but not a lot of room at the inn.

Phenomenal start. He won the Mike Richter award as best college goaltender this year.

 

[Larry44]

I think the nepotism did hurt us in that the son of a former flyer was the obvious next pick in the 7th and the flyers moved the pick to a team who had room for him. Jersey boy flyer connections the marketing team would've loved him. I really have a feeling we're all going to be wracking our brains why we passed on cayden primeau

Hard to say that a 7th round pick at 199 was the 'obvious next pick' when there were still hundreds of eligibles undrafted. I'm sure the Flyers moving the pick had everything to do with them not being interested and having gotten the guys they wanted already. If they were interested, they would have picked Cayden themselves, there is no way they were trying to help him out because of nepotism.

 

[deadhead]

It's a crap shoot at that point, if we used that pick, in hind sight we should have taken Zamula, oh, we signed him as a UDFA?

 

[baudib1]

Deadhead has no credibility on ROR. He called him a 3C who would cost you a prospect like NAK a year ago.

 

[deadhead]

Deadhead has no credibility on ROR. He called him a 3C who would cost you a prospect like NAK a year ago.

Huh? Making stuff up is a good way to show you have no credibility.

 

[baudib1]

Huh? Making stuff up is a good way to show you have no credibility.

$7.5M over 5 years for an average 3C (unless he reverts back to his form of 4 years ago, and do you bet your salary cap on that?) is a lot of money.
And ROR has no value to us in terms of the PP given we have Couts, Patrick, JVR and Simmonds.
Basically, it would be a slight upgrade offensively over Filppula and a bigger upgrade defensively.

Stastny would have made sense, but my suspicion is one reason Hextall is aggrieved is he talked to Stastny and Bozak's agents and Stastny wasn't interested in Philly (the three year term would have been perfect) and Bozak preferred St Louis. Probably because neither wanted to be a 3C here when they can be a 2C with their new teams.

JVR was Hextall's consolation prize.

The issue with ROR is simple, are you getting Buffalo ROR or Colorado ROR.
Buffalo ROR is a marginal 3C (1.26 pp/60) who's primarily a physical defender with limited speed. 11-23 34 ES.
Colorado ROR is a solid 2C (1.86pp/60). ES 16-25 41

In Buffalo, he blossomed on the PP, 10-13 23. 5.73pp/60, 24th over the last 3 seasons among forwards.
Even if you give him a mulligan for last year, two previous years, 1.36 pp/6o while Eichel 1.90, Kane 1.77, Gionta 1.41, Poimville 1.41, Reinhart 1.37.
So some of the decline in offense is ROR, not just being in Buffalo - because "lesser" talent was putting up similar numbers there.

I wouldn't give a top ten pick for ROR, but if I were a GM of a team that is weak at center, I'd make a decent offer.
Flyers aren't that team.

No, ROR stats at even strength say he's a 3C, a 2C scores between 1.75-2.0 pp/60. Given his defense, you might accept 1.5+. Not 1.0-1.4.
And PP points don't count, they don't make Simmonds into a 2RW, they make him a 3RW who can contribute on the PP.

Now the problem is ROR in Colorado put up 2C numbers, but as Duchene's LW on the 1st line.
Problem is what is he worth as a LW?

 

[deadhead]

Now what did I post that was wrong?
I didn't say he was a 3C, I said he played like on in Buffalo, WHICH IS TRUE. I also said he played like a 2C in Colorado, WHICH IS TRUE.

Knowing what we knew then, would you have given up a top ten pick for ROR and his contract?
Everyone is brilliant in hindsight.

What would ROR have done in Philly? His primary linemates in St Louis were Tarasenko, Schenn, Schwartz and Perron.
Schenn had his career year last year in St Louis, then regressed to what you'd expect with better linemates.
If ROR has a "Colorado" season, say 42 ES points and 5 PP points on PP2, what is he worth in Philly?

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Now what did I post that was wrong?
I didn't say he was a 3C, I said he played like on in Buffalo, WHICH IS TRUE. I also said he played like a 2C in Colorado, WHICH IS TRUE.

Knowing what we knew then, would you have given up a top ten pick for ROR and his contract?
Everyone is brilliant in hindsight.

What would ROR have done in Philly? His primary linemates in St Louis were Tarasenko, Schenn, Schwartz and Perron.
Schenn had his career year last year in St Louis, then regressed to what you'd expect with better linemates.
If ROR has a "Colorado" season, say 42 ES points and 5 PP points on PP2, what is he worth in Philly?

Power play points count. Maybe one day you will wake up and realize that