Proposal: Petry to TOR (trade deadline)

[cyris]

If he waives it to move to Toronto, I believe the Leafs can choose the re-conduct the close or not. Just like Nashville did with Subban, I think!?

No that only applies if the player is traded before his NMC kicks in.
In those cases the team adding the player can choose not to honour the NMC.

Subban was traded before the NMC kicked in.

 

[xNogaitx]

So let's re-work the trade based on the leafs' cap situation, Mtl's cap space, and a market comparable in Hamonic.

TOR:
Petry ($1M retained by MTL) - AAV $4.5M @ 3 years left.

MTL:
2019 1st rd pick
2021 Conditional 2nd rd pick (Becomes a first if the Leafs trade Petry or win the cup before the end of his contract.)
2019 4th rd pick (St-Louis' pick)
Nathan Horton

I believe this move not only frees up options for the Leafs but also only becomes steep in a scenario where they win the cup/trade him away subsequently for pieces.
Horton's contract is not insured so that's $8.1M that the Habs would have to shell, on top of retaining a total of $3M from Petry's deal.

Most analyses show Petry's underlying metrics to be that of a #2D around the league but obviously is better suited in a #3 role. Regardless, this would be a huge boost to the Leafs' defense. As they are divisional rivals, the price is obviously steeper.

 

[sansabri]

So let's re-work the trade based on the leafs' cap situation, Mtl's cap space, and a market comparable in Hamonic.

TOR:
Petry ($1M retained by MTL) - AAV $4.5M @ 3 years left.

MTL:
2019 1st rd pick
2021 Conditional 2nd rd pick (Becomes a first if the Leafs trade Petry or win the cup before the end of his contract.)
2019 4th rd pick (St-Louis' pick)
Nathan Horton

I believe this move not only frees up options for the Leafs but also only becomes steep in a scenario where they win the cup/trade him away subsequently for pieces.
Horton's contract is not insured so that's $8.1M that the Habs would have to shell, on top of retaining a total of $3M from Petry's deal.

Most analyses show Petry's underlying metrics to be that of a #2D around the league but obviously is better suited in a #3 role. Regardless, this would be a huge boost to the Leafs' defense. As they are divisional rivals, the price is obviously steeper.

You managed to make it worse.

 

[CTHabsfan]

So let's re-work the trade based on the leafs' cap situation, Mtl's cap space, and a market comparable in Hamonic.

TOR:
Petry ($1M retained by MTL) - AAV $4.5M @ 3 years left.

MTL:
2019 1st rd pick
2021 Conditional 2nd rd pick (Becomes a first if the Leafs trade Petry or win the cup before the end of his contract.)
2019 4th rd pick (St-Louis' pick)
Nathan Horton

I believe this move not only frees up options for the Leafs but also only becomes steep in a scenario where they win the cup/trade him away subsequently for pieces.
Horton's contract is not insured so that's $8.1M that the Habs would have to shell, on top of retaining a total of $3M from Petry's deal.

Awful! You can make the 2021 pick a 2nd with no conditions, keep Horton's contract, and Montreal doesn't retain any of Petry's salary- then you might have a deal. If you want the Canadiens to retain salary and take on a dead weight contract, you need to offer more.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Awful! You can make the 2021 pick a 2nd with no conditions, keep Horton's contract, and Montreal doesn't retain any of Petry's salary- then you might have a deal. If you want the Canadiens to retain salary and take on a dead weight contract, you need to offer more.

the 1st+2nd range seems fine to me from the Leafs side

 

[xNogaitx]

Awful! You can make the 2021 pick a 2nd with no conditions, keep Horton's contract, and Montreal doesn't retain any of Petry's salary- then you might have a deal. If you want the Canadiens to retain salary and take on a dead weight contract, you need to offer more.

That's the point.

Hamonic gathered a 1st and 2 2nds.

Petry being older and at a higher cap hit, albeit better overall, wouldn't gather nearly as much, yet the salary retention makes it such that Mtl would end up with potentially 2 1st rd picks for him. (Because TOR with a stronger defense would be scary and likely win the damn cup, not that I would ever want to see that happen.)

2 1st > 1 1st and 2 2nds

But to have such a return, there's a reality that Mtl would have to cough up some salary ($1M retention isn't much in the grand scheme of things + Horton's contract can easily be absorbed by Molson.) to make it worth it for the Leafs.

 

[WTFMAN99]

It's not a bad offer. I just wonder how many other teams outbid this?

- 2019 1st: It's more likely a 25+ pick. Is there any lottery protection?
- 2020 3rd: Decent add on top of the 1st but it's more likely a 85+ pick.
- Horton: I don't think the Habs would be willing to pay that LTIR contract for this year and next for a meh return.
- Nielsen: Doesn't fit a Habs need. Maybe in Laval.

I do think Petry is a good fit for the Leafs but I don't see a deal here. Petry is an above average top 4D and signed for a solid 3 year term from age 30-32. Big mobile body who can play 2nd PP unit and clear the front of the net for Andersen. He also has some goal scoring ability. 8 goals two years ago and 12 last year... On a team that lacks skill and offense! I think he scores 10+ easily on that Leafs roster.

I think you need to cough up one of Liljegren or Sandin and the 1st if you want to make the Habs think about trading Petry. Tough pill to swallow put no team is trading an above average top 4D on a 3 year term for cheap. Habs needs are LD so if you want Petry, the Habs will be looking at one of Liljegren or Sandin... like it or not.

If it's Sandin or Liljegren, it has to be a clear cut top pairing guy and not just a "top 4" guy. Leafs can totally add on top of those guys but Petry isn't someone I am going to blow my brains out to add if I ran the Leafs.

 

[HockeyDBspecialist]

Petry is Gardiner but older

 

[Dustin]

Petry is Gardiner but older

Whether or not you feel Petry is better or worse than Gardiner the reality is if we trade for Petry, Gardiner is absolutely gone. So in effect we are trading assets and losing Gardiner for Petry. I'm not really feeling it.

 

[nhlfan9191]

the 1st+2nd range seems fine to me from the Leafs side

I bet it does.

 

[HockeyDBspecialist]

Whether or not you feel Petry is better or worse than Gardiner the reality is if we trade for Petry, Gardiner is absolutely gone. So in effect we are trading assets and losing Gardiner for Petry. I'm not really feeling it.

I was meaning it more in a bad way. Petry will have offensive flashes, just like Gardiner, but will mostly fall on the ice or lose the puck due to a terrible D play.

 

[Dustin]

I was meaning it more in a bad way. Petry will have offensive flashes, just like Gardiner, but will mostly fall on the ice or lose the puck due to a terrible D play.

I find Gardiner under rated on HF but that's not to say he's the best Dman in the league. I think he's an average #3 who just happens to be able to perform very well offensively. Either way the difference between Petry and Gardiner is not the assets we would have to pay to acquire him and lose the other.

 

[HockeyDBspecialist]

I find Gardiner under rated on HF but that's not to say he's the best Dman in the league. I think he's an average #3 who just happens to be able to perform very well offensively. Either way the difference between Petry and Gardiner is not the assets we would have to pay to acquire him and lose the other.

But you gotta Admit, at one point you will need a true #1 D top 10 in the league, and for that you will need to Sacrifice offensive power

 

[Dustin]

But you gotta Admit, at one point you will need a true #1 D top 10 in the league, and for that you will need to Sacrifice offensive power

Perhaps. I mean if you are asking me if I want a Doughty like player, then sure of course I do. The problem is those players are rarely traded, command large amounts of cap usually and would require a lot of assets to acquire.

If the question is do I believe they can win without one then the answer is yes. We'll have to see of course but I see no statistical data that suggests if you don't have a bonafide top 5 defenceman on your team you can't win a cup.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I bet it does.

....as suggested by the Habs fan I quoted

 

[Just Linda]

I think trading within your division doesn’t mean as much to anyone other than Ottawa as it used to. In today’s game you worry about making your own team better, you don’t really need to worry about other teams even if they are your rivals.

I’m okay with Montreal taking hortons contract because they won’t be a cap ceiling team this year or next.

That being said, value seems low. Giving up Petry hurts the habs, you can’t expect to obtain a player like that without sacrificing something. This trade is pretty well Toronto giving away scraps and a first round for a player who is capable of playing top line minutes and is a top pair d man with the right partners. He won’t carry your top pairing. I like the bob McKenzie quote from a few years ago “Petry is somewhere between being the best number 3 dman in the league and being the worst number 2” (paraphrased) and Petry has grown since that was said.

In Toronto, Petry would be playing on their top pairing with Reilly. You don’t get a top pairing guy without it hurting.

 

[Habs Halifax]

If it's Sandin or Liljegren, it has to be a clear cut top pairing guy and not just a "top 4" guy. Leafs can totally add on top of those guys but Petry isn't someone I am going to blow my brains out to add if I ran the Leafs.

Your not getting a clear cut top pairing D for a late 1st and one of Sandin or Liljegren. Maybe at the deadline for a UFA rental. Petry has 3 years in term left. Good luck finding that D where teams give you him for cheap

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Petry is Gardiner but older

Probably significantly less salary than Gardiner will command.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Your not getting a clear cut top pairing D for a late 1st and one of Sandin or Liljegren. Maybe at the deadline for a UFA rental. Petry has 3 years in term left. Good luck finding that D where teams give you him for cheap

If it's a clear cut top pairing guy then depending on age, contract etc.

We can look at Nylander, 1sts (multiple), Sandin, or Liljegren and other assets. No issue with giving up quality to get quality, the issue is the guys that are worth giving up those types of assets for, rarely become available.

 

[LeafGrief]

But you gotta Admit, at one point you will need a true #1 D top 10 in the league, and for that you will need to Sacrifice offensive power

Who did that for the Caps? Carlson was their #1 but played 2nd pairing competition at ES, Niskanen and Orlov faced the hard minutes. Who did that for the Pens in their 2nd win? Hainsey? You have to go back three years to a healthy Letang to find a team that won the cup with your requirement. Sheesh, the only top10 defenceman who even made it to the conference finals last year was Hedman. Vegas, Winnipeg, and Washington all had good defence, but none of them have a top10 guy.

The Leafs would love to have a top10 guy and a better defence overall, but all recent history points to the fact that you don't actually need a top10 guy. You'd have a better time arguing that the past 3 cup winners indicate that you need adequate defence and two elite centres.

 

[Benstheman]

Trading Petry to Leafs and considering Habs situation, it would need to include one of Sandin, Liljegren or Dermott. I unfortunately think the latter is out of the question considering he is an actual part of the Leafs D and a pretty good one. So i would settle for one of Sandin or Liljegren and a 2019 2nd (50OA to 62OA most probably).

 

[Danny1237]

But you gotta Admit, at one point you will need a true #1 D top 10 in the league, and for that you will need to Sacrifice offensive power

I don't really get how the implication is that the Leafs need a top 10 #1 D to be able to win. By no means do I think they are a favorite, but their chances at winning aren't 0% until they get that D. They need to improve if they want to be favorites, but lots of teams have won without one of the very best D in the league. If the Leafs offense can't make up for not having one of the top 10 D in the league, you are basically saying that there are maybe 3 teams that have any chance to win the cup. Nashville, San Jose and Tampa. Maybe Columbus?

After that I don't think there is another team that is better than teams like Winnipeg or Toronto that also has one of the 10 best D in the league.

Every team has weaknesses. The most common things people say you "need" to have to win are;

1) An elite #1 Center
2) Strong top 3 center depth
3) At least 1 game breaking goal scorer
4) An elite #1 D
5) A strong top 4
6) An elite goalie


Tampa is the only team you could argue that ticks all the boxes, and they have proven they can lose in the playoffs. Many past champions are missing some of these pieces, and in a cap league, there is virtually nothing you can do to guarantee you assemble all of the ingredients.

 

[BAM]

But you gotta Admit, at one point you will need a true #1 D top 10 in the league, and for that you will need to Sacrifice offensive power

Last 3 cup winners didn't have a top 10 D, Morgan Rielly is an average (15-20) 1D and if he repeats last season he'll move up on that list as well. Leafs more than anything just need a young Hainsey type defensemen.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Trading Petry to Leafs and considering Habs situation, it would need to include one of Sandin, Liljegren or Dermott. I unfortunately think the latter is out of the question considering he is an actual part of the Leafs D and a pretty good one. So i would settle for one of Sandin or Liljegren and a 2019 2nd (50OA to 62OA most probably).

Dont see Dubas moving Sandin, his first ever pick as the Leafs GM. Also doubt Lily is moved. I think it would have to be pure picks from the leafs POV. Management seem high on all the Swedish defenders the leafs have been drafting.

 

[sansabri]

Last 3 cup winners didn't have a top 10 D, Morgan Rielly is an average (15-20) 1D and if he repeats last season he'll move up on that list as well. Leafs more than anything just need a young Hainsey type defensemen.

Letang...