GDT: Peter Chiarelli Media Availability

[McGoMcD]

The Oilers will spend 19.6 million dollars on the following:

Milan Lucic, Kris Russell, Andrej Sekera, Mikko Koskinen, Pouliot/Gryba buyouts.

Kill me now.

Cha cha cha cha CHIA!

guy just signs the worst f ing deals.

 

[sailorjerry97]

Cha cha cha cha CHIA!

guy just signs the worst f ing deals.

Probably hoping that in 2 years we can off load one of these salaries to Seattle

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Benning right now is the 126th highest paid defenseman in the league. So he is being paid like a low end #4 or top end #5. Caggiula the 237th highest paid forward in the league. So he is being paid like an average third liner. Neither player has established himself at that respective level.

Benning is the team's #6 defenseman. He had no leverage at all. If he was getting $1.4M no one would be arguing that he was under paid.

I could be mistaken but I think that Benning had arbitration rights which would've improved his bargaining position IMO. That said I don't much care for his deal.

I am not a big anti-Chia guy. But when it comes to cap management he really does seem to have difficulties.

Agreed, I figured that we'd squeeze guys like Caggiula and Benning since we need all the cap that we can get, then we overpay them (IMO) and add dead cap from the Gryba buyout. Yikes.

 

[LaGu]

The first two lines are correct, the math is wrong though: You're forgetting to subtract the bury-able cap from Montoya's contract when he's in the minors, where he costs 37.5k against the cap. So sending Koskinen down and bringing Montoya up would actually add pretty much the full non-bury-able cost of Koskinen to the cap hit. 1.4375M to be exact.



Yeah, this buyout was baffling. Two ideas thrown around were:
1. Frees up a roster spot
2. Opens up ice-time for other prospects

1. Seems minor, maybe we do need that spot to fill out the full roster including two way contracts (not super familiar with the bakersfield lineup), doesn't seem very significant.
2. Give more ice-time to prospects. Why not just sit him in the press-box though and give the ice-time anway? This leads to a third point:

3. Maybe they don't want him around their prospects at all because he's a slow clutch-and-grab dinosaur that might teach bad habits?

4. Gryba wanted out to try his luck to get on a PTO and possibly go for a minimum-wage contract ($650k).

I think they main reason is this last one actually. Points 1 and 2 are obviously right as you say, but not really to the extent to lead to this buyout.

To me they made a decision to let him try his luck somewhere else and judged that the $300k will not make that much of a difference at the end of the day. Seeing our cap-situation I am not sure I would agree with that, but I guess well have a much better idea on what the plan is (if there is one...) in a couple of weeks.

With regards to Koskinen: I would be shocked if Koskinen and the team don't agree on either releasing him or trading him away if he cannot manage to keep a roster spot as the backup next season.

 

[Fourier]

I could be mistaken but I think that Benning had arbitration rights which would've improved his bargaining position IMO. That said I don't much care for his deal.

He was in fact arbitration eligible. But I don't think that is the issue. There was very little chance that he was going to get more than $2M in arbitration. The comparators are not there to justify it. But rather the Oilers have lots of recent signings that they could use to argue in the $1-1.5M range. His one hope would be his 21 points. That might get him $1.9M if he was lucky. But the Oilers could counter with guys like Collin Miller whose 16 points in 42 games got him a 2 year $1M deal.

In fact, there would have been an advantage for the Oilers for Benning to ask for arbitration. It would have allowed them time to see how things played out at the draft and through July 1. It also opens up a second buyout window which could be used if they got lucky and landed a big fish RHD.

Agreed, I figured that we'd squeeze guys like Caggiula and Benning since we need all the cap that we can get, then we overpay them (IMO) and add dead cap from the Gryba buyout. Yikes.

The key here is the "we need all the cap we can get". Part of being a GM in the current NHL is managing your cap. The Oilers have the luxury of an owner who will allow them to spend to the cap so this theoretically makes it easier. As much as guys like Lucic and Russell are perceived to be over paid those deals were not going to be easy to make without the type of money each player got. You can argue whether or not Lucic or Russell were the right guys to invest in but it is much harder to argue that Chia could have saved much with either player. Lucic was pretty much par for the course for his UFA class. Russell was also a UFA. Like him or hate him his deal was also not so out of line with what it would have cost to replace him. That's the nature of the UFA market. Sekera was a similar situation. Even the Koskinen deal can be justified.

Where a GM can save money is on his own RFA's. While I have confidence that long term Leon's deal will be a net positive for the team, this was the first really big test for his negotiation skills with eh Oilers. (McDavid was going to get his money one way or the other.) Knowing he had a pending cap crunch in the next two years but that it was likely that space would open up beyond that, he could have approached this like Yzerman did with Kucherov and gone the bridge route. But he chose to go for the longer deal (which generally I favour). In doing so $7.5M might have been ideal. Even $8M would have helped but he paid full dollar at best and ended up with $8.5M. Moreover in getting to that point he also pulled the trigger on the Pouliot buyout that effectively took $1.3M off the Oilers cap. In isolation it is easy o make the case for both decisions. But together all of these decisions on UFA's, the Leon deal and the Pouliot buyout put the team in a position to have to watch their pennies. The easiest place to do that is with your role playing RFA's. But with contracts to guys like Bennng, Kassian and Caggiula Chia again paid at east full market value.

This is why I said it was "death by a thousand cuts". Each deal in isolation can be justified but none were wins. In each case the player got full value or better depending on one's perspective. Guys like Yzerman and Poile make mistakes as well. But they also get their fair share of big wins that compensate and allow them to make moves when the opportunity arises.

 

[Fourier]

Ok, here's a comparable. Grzelcyk from Boston got $1.4 per over 2 years with just 1 season of decent production under his belt while Benning played a pretty key role on a contending team last season and outproduced Grzelcyk this season. You don't think that's worth at least a few hundred K more? I'm not even a big Benning fan but I fully expected around 2M for him so this contract didn't surprise me one bit.

On the other hand, the Gryba buyout perplexes me. Why he gave him a 2 year deal in the first place perplexes me which is now stretched out to a 3 year deal essentially.

Grzelcyk is actually a very good comparable. Benning may have a marginally better case but for a cap strapped team $5ooK extra is a big difference. And I say this while being far more content with the current roster than most on this board.

Again, I can live with the Benning deal in isolation. But to manage the cap you will need to win a few of these negotiations going forward.

 

[Fourier]

Bingo. Anyone complaining about Benning being an overpay will literally complain about any Chiarelli signing as an overpay.

Any attempts to statistically 'prove' that Benning was an overpay are easily refuted.

Your first statement is essentially right on. It is the cumulative impact of his negotiations that is the issue. And I say this despite the fact that you will be hard pressed to find many posts I have made asking for Chia's head.

As to your second statement if it is so easy to do so then why not actually do so. And saying that this is because RHD are so valuable is not a refutation. Gryba and Fayne are both RHD and there is a good chance that neither will be in the NHL next year. Being RHD in itself does not get you paid. Being a high end RHD does. At best being right handed might make him slightly more valuable in a possible trade scenario but it does not change the fact that compared with others across the league he will be over paid for is role. Look at a guy like Alex Petrovic. His second contract was at $1.1M and his third contract was at $1.85M after he had far more fully established himself.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Grzelcyk is actually a very good comparable. Benning may have a marginally better case but for a cap strapped team $5ooK extra is a big difference. And I say this while being far more content with the current roster than most on this board.

Again, I can live with the Benning deal in isolation. But to manage the cap you will need to win a few of these negotiations going forward.

if Benning plays like he did in his rookie campaign, then his salary will be more than justified

the problem is Benning played too high in the line-up with Sekera out last year and it hurt his game

 

[Raoul Duke]

Chia heard your concerns about unused cap space last season and he’s going to make sure that never happens again!!!

 

[shoop]

As to your second statement if it is so easy to do so then why not actually do so. And saying that this is because RHD are so valuable is not a refutation. Gryba and Fayne are both RHD and there is a good chance that neither will be in the NHL next year. Being RHD in itself does not get you paid. Being a high end RHD does.

Why not put in the effort to prove something when someone makes such an incredible leap in logic to support their point? When someone is willing to argue a point and never move? Time is a limited resource to be spent judiciously.

If you do want to put in the effort there is a lot for you to disprove. Here are the predictions from Matt Cane of Hockey Graphs for all free agent D based on an $80M cap. You can quibble with the individual players here and there, but it's a pretty comprehensive list.

As to the incredible leap in logic ... Gryba and Fayne aren't NHLers. Perhaps if you provided examples of actual RHD NHLers, who aren't high end, to support the argument that "being a high end RHD" gets you paid. Surely you can see the logical fallacy, can't you?

 

[PaPaDee]

if Benning plays like he did in his rookie campaign, then his salary will be more than justified

the problem is Benning played too high in the line-up with Sekera out last year and it hurt his game

Agreed. He should be on the third pairing right now, but has the potential to be a #4 guy.

 

[PaPaDee]

People are acting like Benning making 5th D-man type money is okay. Its only OKAY because the Oilers are essentially 1-2 D-men additions from having an actual NHL quality D. If Chia finally gets that RHD he's been failing to add since he got here, Benning slots into his correct role at 7D. How's 1.9M dollars not in the line up for you? Is it an overpay then?

If the Oilers add another RHD that pushes Benning to the press box, they'll trade him, and likely find a suitor to do so. However, IMO, even if they add another RHD, I think Benning stays.

If we could add Faulk at a reasonable price, I'd try to move Sekera:

Klefbom - Larsson
Nurse - Faulk
Russell - Benning

Not the best quality line-up, but it does provide a good balance of Dmen that play different styles and could compliment one another.

 

[Fourier]

Why not put in the effort to prove something when someone makes such an incredible leap in logic to support their point? When someone is willing to argue a point and never move? Time is a limited resource to be spent judiciously.

If you do want to put in the effort there is a lot for you to disprove. Here are the predictions from Matt Cane of Hockey Graphs for all free agent D based on an $80M cap. You can quibble with the individual players here and there, but it's a pretty comprehensive list.

As to the incredible leap in logic ... Gryba and Fayne aren't NHLers. Perhaps if you provided examples of actual RHD NHLers, who aren't high end, to support the argument that "being a high end RHD" gets you paid. Surely you can see the logical fallacy, can't you?

I asked you for evidence and you provided it. I appreciate that.

Cane is a credible source and I respect his work in general. I actually agree pretty much on Caggiula with his prediction by the way.

It would be good to know his model because I suspect that it favours Benning because of his 21 points That is the strongest thing he has going in his favour. Cane even suggests in his twitter comments that the predictions are weighted in favour of stats after the All-star break. Again this favours Benning considerably since he had 11 of his 21 points in the his last 28 games.

This is where I have concerns about the global accuracy of an arithmetic approach. It ignores anomalies that make repeatability less likely. In the latter half of last year Benning had a lot of opportunities that he is not likely to have with a healthy lineup. As of right now he will be the Oilers #6 defenseman. In that scenario he is very unlikely to get the same sorts of offensive opportunities he had in the last half of the year. For example, from the Allstar game onward all but 2 of his points involved McDavid. That is 9 of 11 or roughly 80% of his points. Overall McDavid was typically involved in about 45% of the Oilers points. If he goes back to his usual role on the third pairing his zone start ratio changes and he spends more time with the bottom 6 and less time with the top 6. More to the point, if the Oilers do land that elusive RHD then there is a 50-50 chance that Benning becomes your #7 defenseman. Would a 7th defenseman at $1.9M be earning his pay.

Another thing the model likely does not take into play is a team's cap structure. If the Oilers had lots of cap space this signing would be mostly a non issue. So I wonder if this model would have predicted Kucherov's deal accurately without taking into consideration the fact that Yzerman was under the gun to get Stamkos signed?


You will note though that his algorithmic model also gives a 4 year equivalent for Benning of $3.4M. Is there anyone here who would have been remotely happy with the Oilers giving Benning 4 years at $3.4M? It also gives Benning more than a guy like Theodore. I doubt there is one NHL executive that would not trade Benning for Theodore in a heart beat. Ask Columbus fans how they would feel about $5M for Boone Jenner right now as well.

In the end this is like any sort of statistical argument. You have to see how to applies in context. For most of the players on this list their roles are fairly stable whether as a plug and play replacement level player or as a star. For these types an algorithmic approach can be very good. But for players that are potential strong candidates to be outliers, as I claim Benning would be for any model that weighs last year's stats heavily you have to be more careful. And if you look you will see that for many of the players in the first category the model's error is small. But for some the error rate is 25% which is significant.

As to Gryba and Fayne...you have made my point exactly. Just being a RHD does not somehow make you valuable. And it seems that you missed my reference to Alex Petrovic who is a real live NHL RHD.

 

[shoop]

I asked you for evidence and you provided it. I appreciate that.

It would be good to know his model because I suspect that it favours Benning because of his 21 points That is the strongest thing he has going in his favour. Cane even suggests in his twitter comments that the predictions are weighted in favour of stats after the All-star break. Again this favours Benning considerably since he had 11 of his 21 points in the his last 28 games.

This is where I have concerns about the global accuracy of an arithmetic approach. It ignores anomalies that make repeatability less likely. In the latter half of last year Benning had a lot of opportunities that he is not likely to have with a healthy lineup. As of right now he will be the Oilers #6 defenseman.

As to Gryba and Fayne...you have made my point exactly. Just being a RHD does not somehow make you valuable. And it seems that you missed my reference to Alex Petrovic who is a real live NHL RHD.

There is also the human factor that needs to be accounted for. Recency bias would tend to lead to a higher value for players who perform better after the all-start break than before. Since GMs are human, maybe Cane gets it right with a bias towards those later in the season stats as GMs will quite possibly show an unconscious bias to the last time they saw a given player.

I think you are really stuck on being a RHD in and of itself making a player valuable. Once a player has proven he can play in the league he is going to get a premium for being a RHS. It's simply a matter of supply because there are far fewer RHS players than LHS in the league. (That goes back to my firm belief that 'handedness' is backwards for hockey. I shoot left, but doing everything else right, bat, golf, tennis, write, etc. I know many people like that.) There are just more righties in the world, 9 t0 1 if you believe the Simpson's.

So maybe as a LHS, Benning is only worth $1.7M p.a. Is that $200K the difference between a player who is valuable and one who is not?

As to the Oilers getting that elusive RHD powerplay specialist and Benning earning his pay as a 7D? I agree with you that would be bad cap management, but I don't think that happens.

Sekera/Larsson/Klefa/RHD PP guy/Russell/Nurse is a little too much with the 6D making $3 ~ $3.5m minimum, either for Nurse or the PP specialist. So to bring in that RHD PP guy the Oilers have to move a body on D. Klefa if I had to guess, but you never know. I can't see the Oilers going into the season with a $1.9m 7D.

 

[redgrant]

Sounds like hes trying hard to get Paryanko

Nuge klefbom 10th this year and 2nd rounder next year.

Thats the way Chia rolls.

 

[Konami McDavid]

Again, this is not relevant for the role Benning plays. There is very little inflation for the bottom pairing. Since 2014-2015 the median salary for a bottom pairing defenseman has gone up by about $100k.

I just really wanted to use this meme. The best part is that the word "mean" is in there twice. I do get that with such a large sample size, the mean and median are likely very close to the same number, if not the same. Still, I saw my opportunity, and I took it.

Having said that, if someone wants to refute the numbers given on an analysis, in this case a ranking system based on salaries, and they feel a ranking system based on the % of cap at time of signing is more appropriate, it is on them to run the numbers to refute your claim. It is not your responsibility to run the numbers for them to make their argument. Both types of analysis will have their confounds. One does not take into account the rising cap, and the other does not account for market value compared to the cap at that particular time.

 

[Fourier]

View attachment 126319

I just really wanted to use this meme. The best part is that the word "mean" is in there twice. I do get that with such a large sample size, the mean and median are likely very close to the same number, if not the same. Still, I saw my opportunity, and I took it.

Having said that, if someone wants to refute the numbers given on an analysis, in this case a ranking system based on salaries, and they feel a ranking system based on the % of cap at time of signing is more appropriate, it is on them to run the numbers to refute your claim. It is not your responsibility to run the numbers for them to make their argument. Both types of analysis will have their confounds. One does not take into account the rising cap, and the other does not account for market value compared to the cap at that particular time.

To be honest even with large sample sizes the mean can differ from the median by a fair bit depending on the shape of the distribution. Take a look at the top 700 or so salaried players in the NHL. The mean salary for that group would be in the $3.1-3.2M range but the median is about $2.3M. This reflects the fact that NHL salaries tend to be higher for a select few. So for teh comparison I was making the median is likely the better statistic. You are correct though that for the lower end the mean and median are close. And when I originally looked at the numbers I quoted I did have in mind adjustment for inflation. But at the low end of the salary scale the inflation rate is very modest, again because most new money goes to the few top stars, or sometimes to mid tier players but seldom to the bottom feeders . So in the end we were talking about adjustments in the 10's of thousands for bottom pairing defensemen. This meant that such adjustments would simply be absorbed in the noise of any approximations I used.