Prospect Info: Personal Boards for 2020 Draft

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,201
14,683
1- Alexis Lafreniere
2- Quinton Byfield
3- Lucas Raymond
4- Tim Stutzle
5- Jamie Drysdale
6- Cole Perfetti
7- Yaroslav Askarov
8- Marco Rossi
9- Anton Lundell
10- Alexander Holtz
11- Connor Zary
12- Jake Sanderson
13- Mavrik Bourque
14- Seth Jarvis
15- Dawson Mercer
16- Brendan Brisson
17- Jack Quinn
18- Jacob Perrault
19- Rodion Amirov
20- Kaiden Guhle
21- Hendrix Lapierre (like him better than this... without concussions would probably have him #8-13ish)
22- Noel Gunler
23- Lukas Reichel
24- Dylan Holloway
25- William Wallinder
26- Braden Schneider
27- Vasily Ponomaryov
28- Jan Mysak
29- Thomas Bordeleau
30- Martin Chromiak
31- JJ Peterka
----------------
32- Ryan O'Rourke
33- Marat Khusnutdinov
34- Helge Grans
35- Daniel Torgersson
36- Alexander Pashin
37- Ridly Greig
38- Jeremie Poirer
39- Tyson Foerster
40- Tyler Tullio

HM- Hirvonen, Guschin, Barron, Cormier, Robins, Niederbach, Nybeck

Players I like more since doing this: Mitchell Miller, Dmitri Ramshevsky, Jacob Perrault, Connor Zary, Emil Heineman

I would probably flop Drysdale and Perfetti, at least I would if I was drafting for us.

I would probably bump down O'Rourke and Poirer. Also probably would swap Pashin for Ramshevsky/Heineman... even though I am a big fan of that kid. But other 2 guys have a way higher floor.

Maybe I'll just make a new list at some point, guess we have some plenty of time before the draft still....
 

The Zetterberg Era

Ball Hockey Sucks
Nov 8, 2011
40,957
11,577
Ft. Myers, FL
Players I like more since doing this: Mitchell Miller, Dmitri Ramshevsky, Jacob Perrault, Connor Zary, Emil Heineman

I would probably flop Drysdale and Perfetti, at least I would if I was drafting for us.

I would probably bump down O'Rourke and Poirer. Also probably would swap Pashin for Ramshevsky/Heineman... even though I am a big fan of that kid. But other 2 guys have a way higher floor.

Maybe I'll just make a new list at some point, guess we have some plenty of time before the draft still....

Yeah I am going to have to tweak this thing in late September to early October...
 

NotLeddy

Trust the Yzerscam
Oct 23, 2018
733
672
1- Alexis Lafreniere
2- Quinton Byfield
3- Cole Perfetti
4- Lucas Raymond
5- Tim Stutzle
6- Noel Gunler
7- Jamie Drysdale
8- Jake Sanderson
9- Marco Rossi
10- Anton Lundell
11- Yaroslav Askarov
12- Alexander Holtz

Only really paid attention to the top half of the draft given Detroit's record but as you can see not a big Holtz/Rossi fan and am very high on Gunler being in the conversation of picks within the 5th-7th range.
 

Hen Kolland

Registered User
Feb 22, 2018
9,470
8,336
1- Alexis Lafreniere
2- Quinton Byfield
3- Cole Perfetti
4- Lucas Raymond
5- Tim Stutzle
6- Noel Gunler
7- Jamie Drysdale
8- Jake Sanderson
9- Marco Rossi
10- Anton Lundell
11- Yaroslav Askarov
12- Alexander Holtz

Only really paid attention to the top half of the draft given Detroit's record but as you can see not a big Holtz/Rossi fan and am very high on Gunler being in the conversation of picks within the 5th-7th range.

I am shocked that you view Gunler as top 5-7 pick but have Holtz entirely outside of the top 10; I'm intrigued in the mental gymnastics here to come to this conclusion if you don't mind elaborating what you prioritize and how you see Holtz lagging compared to Gunler.
 

NotLeddy

Trust the Yzerscam
Oct 23, 2018
733
672
I am shocked that you view Gunler as top 5-7 pick but have Holtz entirely outside of the top 10; I'm intrigued in the mental gymnastics here to come to this conclusion if you don't mind elaborating what you prioritize and how you see Holtz lagging compared to Gunler.

No mental gymnastics here. Gunler had an underrated season with minimal TOI with good offensive and shot impact much like Raymond. I'm reasonably confident he'll be an NHLer.

Holtz's poor natural defensive awareness and one dimensional offense makes me not a fan of the player in general. I don't think he's near the tier of Raymond, Perfetti etc. I also question if he has top line potential, and best case scenario I see him as a more 2nd line winger/2nd PP unit player, if that. Just too many holes in his game for me.

A couple players from every draft around the 7th-13th mark don't pan out as they hope anyways, and I feel like I've seen too many Alexander Holtzes over the years to think much of him personally. But I'll be more than willing to eat crow if he does reach the potential many do seem to think he has.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,201
14,683
I am shocked that you view Gunler as top 5-7 pick but have Holtz entirely outside of the top 10; I'm intrigued in the mental gymnastics here to come to this conclusion if you don't mind elaborating what you prioritize and how you see Holtz lagging compared to Gunler.

I wouldn’t put Gunler over Holtz, but I’ve often questioned myself on if the gap between Holtz and Gunler is as big as people think.
 
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Hen Kolland

Registered User
Feb 22, 2018
9,470
8,336
No mental gymnastics here. Gunler had an underrated season with minimal TOI with good offensive and shot impact much like Raymond. I'm reasonably confident he'll be an NHLer.

Holtz's poor natural defensive awareness and one dimensional offense makes me not a fan of the player in general. I don't think he's near the tier of Raymond, Perfetti etc. I also question if he has top line potential, and best case scenario I see him as a more 2nd line winger/2nd PP unit player, if that. Just too many holes in his game for me.

A couple players from every draft around the 7th-13th mark don't pan out as they hope anyways, and I feel like I've seen too many Alexander Holtzes over the years to think much of him personally. But I'll be more than willing to eat crow if he does reach the potential many do seem to think he has.

I meant just how you arrived at the conclusion, not that you broke common sense or anything of the sort. I have spent minimal time on Gunler, but it feels like the biggest critiques of his game could be mirrored to Holtz's. I have watched enough to know that I wouldn't take Gunler's offensive abilities over Holtz's, and Holtz shouldn't be considered one dimensional.
 

DatsyukToZetterberg

Alligator!
Apr 3, 2011
5,549
738
Island of Tortuga
I made a similar post in the draft thread, but it's feels like this post belonged in this thread more so than the general discussion. Over the last month or so I've created a very rudimentary prospect evaluation model based on the data from pick224. The model only looks at first time eligible players and works by assigning an expected pick value to the prospect by comparing the players production to historical values for the league that they played in. Depending on a players production they were given an expected pick value that could range between 3 & 250 - 3 meaning they produced at a top 3 picks rate of production and 250 meaning they should be undrafted.

The CHL leagues have the most data and are the ones in which I'm the most confident in the results, as well there were no professional leagues used so that means players in the DEL, SHL, Liiga, etc. would not be included. There are still some issues with the model, I think the model overvalues offensive defenceman a little bit too much and Russian dmen are just weird, but given the simplicity it's something I'm willing to accept. I redid the 2010-2019 drafts with my model selecting for the Red Wings and I'm quite happy with the results so I figured I'd share the 2020 list.

TL;DR: Model ranks players based on 4 different inputs, gives the player an expected pick value depending on those inputs. The higher the expected pick the better the better the prospect looks in the models eyes. While there are no expected pick values given each tier contains players within 5 - 15 expected picks of one another. Anyways, enough rambling this is the models list:

Tier NAME
1 Marco Rossi
1 Quinton Byfield
1 Cole Perfetti
1 Seth Jarvis
1 Alexis Lafreniere
1 Anton Johannesson
-------------
2 William Villeneuve
2 Jeremie Poirier
2 Jamie Drysdale
----------------
3 Zion Nybeck
3 Connor Zary
3 Tomi Niku
3 Shakir Mukhamadullin
3 Rodion Amirov
3 Emil Heineman
3 Veeti Miettinen
3 Tristen Robins
3 Jack Quinn
3 Emil Andrae
3 Sam Colangelo
---------------
4 Sergei Safin-Tregubov
4 Joni Jurmo
4 Jacob Perreault
4 Mavrik Bourque
4 Justin Sourdif
4 Martin Chromiak
4 Pavel Novak
4 Jack Finley
4 Tyson Foerster
4 Ozzy Wiesblatt
4 Jake Neighbours
4 Lukas Cormier
4 Dmitry Ovchinnikov
---------------
5 Tyler Tullio
5 Ridly Greig
5 Daniel Torgersson
5 Dawson Mercer
5 Maxim Beryozkin
5 Jacob Dion
5 Alec Belanger
5 Luke Evangelista
5 Kasper Puutio
5 James Hardie
5 Brandon Coe
5 Donovan Sebrango
5 Jan Mysak
5 Rory Kerins
5 Connor McClennon
5 Sean Farrell
5 Daniil Gushchin
5 Braden Schneider
5 Hugo Styf
5 Ryan Francis
5 Alexander Pashin
5 Maxim Nevolin
5 Marat Khusnutdinov
5 Kasper Simontaival
5 Miguel Tourigny
5 Daniil L. Zaitsev
5 Samuel Knazko
5 Helge Grans
5 Kaiden Guhle
5 Evan Vierling
5 Jacob Truscott
5 Zayde Wisdom
5 Cross Hanas
5 Oskar Magnusson
5 William Dufour
5 Danil Aimurzin
----------------
6 Mitchell Miller
6 Jake Sanderson
6 Brendan Brisson
6 Nikita Yefremov
6 Ryan O'Rourke
6 Isaak Phillips
6 Ryker Evans
6 Kyle Crnkovic
6 Lukas Svejkovsky
6 Hendrix Lapierre
6 Reid Valade
6 Colby Ambrosio
------------------
7 Jack Thompson
7 Eamon Powell
7 Jaromir Pytlik
7 Hayden Fowler
7 Thomas Bordeleau
7 Carson Bantle
7 Oscar Johnsson
7 Brady Burns
7 Bogdan Trineyev
7 Thimo Nickl
7 Hannes Nordstrom
7 Ivan Zinchenko

I don't believe the model is great at selecting in the first round, there's a lot more nuance in those first 31 picks; however, I think where it shines is highlighting players that may be undervalued and are falling in the draft. For this years draft I think it's look like the best value picks could be Anton Johannesson, Tomi Niku, Rory Kerins, Kasper Puutio, Pavel Novak, Alexander Pashin, Brandon Coe, and Veeti Miettinen.

One thing to note about the tiers is that there is a steady drop off in terms of how likely the prospect was to make the NHL. the 7th tier was chosen to be the cut off as this was the point in which prospects with less than a 104 expected pick value were selected. In the period I used for testing just 8% of players selected with a value of 104 or greater became NHLers. So, while there are some interesting prospects outside of the range, I'd probably let another team select them and go for the prospects the model had deemed to be safer.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,201
14,683
I made a similar post in the draft thread, but it's feels like this post belonged in this thread more so than the general discussion. Over the last month or so I've created a very rudimentary prospect evaluation model based on the data from pick224. The model only looks at first time eligible players and works by assigning an expected pick value to the prospect by comparing the players production to historical values for the league that they played in. Depending on a players production they were given an expected pick value that could range between 3 & 250 - 3 meaning they produced at a top 3 picks rate of production and 250 meaning they should be undrafted.

The CHL leagues have the most data and are the ones in which I'm the most confident in the results, as well there were no professional leagues used so that means players in the DEL, SHL, Liiga, etc. would not be included. There are still some issues with the model, I think the model overvalues offensive defenceman a little bit too much and Russian dmen are just weird, but given the simplicity it's something I'm willing to accept. I redid the 2010-2019 drafts with my model selecting for the Red Wings and I'm quite happy with the results so I figured I'd share the 2020 list.

TL;DR: Model ranks players based on 4 different inputs, gives the player an expected pick value depending on those inputs. The higher the expected pick the better the better the prospect looks in the models eyes. While there are no expected pick values given each tier contains players within 5 - 15 expected picks of one another. Anyways, enough rambling this is the models list:

Tier NAME
1 Marco Rossi
1 Quinton Byfield
1 Cole Perfetti
1 Seth Jarvis
1 Alexis Lafreniere
1 Anton Johannesson
-------------
2 William Villeneuve
2 Jeremie Poirier
2 Jamie Drysdale
----------------
3 Zion Nybeck
3 Connor Zary
3 Tomi Niku
3 Shakir Mukhamadullin
3 Rodion Amirov
3 Emil Heineman
3 Veeti Miettinen
3 Tristen Robins
3 Jack Quinn
3 Emil Andrae
3 Sam Colangelo
---------------
4 Sergei Safin-Tregubov
4 Joni Jurmo
4 Jacob Perreault
4 Mavrik Bourque
4 Justin Sourdif
4 Martin Chromiak
4 Pavel Novak
4 Jack Finley
4 Tyson Foerster
4 Ozzy Wiesblatt
4 Jake Neighbours
4 Lukas Cormier
4 Dmitry Ovchinnikov
---------------
5 Tyler Tullio
5 Ridly Greig
5 Daniel Torgersson
5 Dawson Mercer
5 Maxim Beryozkin
5 Jacob Dion
5 Alec Belanger
5 Luke Evangelista
5 Kasper Puutio
5 James Hardie
5 Brandon Coe
5 Donovan Sebrango
5 Jan Mysak
5 Rory Kerins
5 Connor McClennon
5 Sean Farrell
5 Daniil Gushchin
5 Braden Schneider
5 Hugo Styf
5 Ryan Francis
5 Alexander Pashin
5 Maxim Nevolin
5 Marat Khusnutdinov
5 Kasper Simontaival
5 Miguel Tourigny
5 Daniil L. Zaitsev
5 Samuel Knazko
5 Helge Grans
5 Kaiden Guhle
5 Evan Vierling
5 Jacob Truscott
5 Zayde Wisdom
5 Cross Hanas
5 Oskar Magnusson
5 William Dufour
5 Danil Aimurzin
----------------
6 Mitchell Miller
6 Jake Sanderson
6 Brendan Brisson
6 Nikita Yefremov
6 Ryan O'Rourke
6 Isaak Phillips
6 Ryker Evans
6 Kyle Crnkovic
6 Lukas Svejkovsky
6 Hendrix Lapierre
6 Reid Valade
6 Colby Ambrosio
------------------
7 Jack Thompson
7 Eamon Powell
7 Jaromir Pytlik
7 Hayden Fowler
7 Thomas Bordeleau
7 Carson Bantle
7 Oscar Johnsson
7 Brady Burns
7 Bogdan Trineyev
7 Thimo Nickl
7 Hannes Nordstrom
7 Ivan Zinchenko

I don't believe the model is great at selecting in the first round, there's a lot more nuance in those first 31 picks; however, I think where it shines is highlighting players that may be undervalued and are falling in the draft. For this years draft I think it's look like the best value picks could be Anton Johannesson, Tomi Niku, Rory Kerins, Kasper Puutio, Pavel Novak, Alexander Pashin, Brandon Coe, and Veeti Miettinen.

One thing to note about the tiers is that there is a steady drop off in terms of how likely the prospect was to make the NHL. the 7th tier was chosen to be the cut off as this was the point in which prospects with less than a 104 expected pick value were selected. In the period I used for testing just 8% of players selected with a value of 104 or greater became NHLers. So, while there are some interesting prospects outside of the range, I'd probably let another team select them and go for the prospects the model had deemed to be safer.

Did you factor in age or birth date? Because I really think it should be.

For example - I definitely feel like what kids like Ridly Greig did is more impressive if you consider their age.
 

DatsyukToZetterberg

Alligator!
Apr 3, 2011
5,549
738
Island of Tortuga
Did you factor in age or birth date? Because I really think it should be.

For example - I definitely feel like what kids like Ridly Greig did is more impressive if you consider their age.

Yup, there were adjustments made for a player's age as well as the scoring rate in the league they played. The age adjustment wasn't something super robust, it was just a linear regression. You could probably find something more accurate by using a delta approach, but I wanted to keep it simple so the linear regression worked for this project. The results I posted were from a version of the model that weighs ES production and primary point production more heavily than power play and overall production, I also didn't include shorthanded points because they are quite frankly unreliable and I think add unnecessary noise. I did have another version of the model for just the CHL leagues and in this one Greig was more liked and would have been in the 4th tier.

There are adjustments you can make in a "What If" scenario that aren't available to the model. For example, after a quick look at his stats I think Greig got a little unlucky this year at ES and he probably should've had 4 or 5 more secondary assists. Given him 4 extra secondary assists bumps him up from the 5th tier to the 4th tier. Greig also had positive stats that weren't used as inputs such as his p/e60 and SOG rate. I think a team could make an extremely good argument for him earlier than the model would predict. That being said, I do think taking him where he's ranked on Bob's list would be a bit of reach given the talent that will be there at the end of the 1st.

This version of the model doesn't try to account for context and "What Ifs". In future iterations I'll hopefully be able to have it include some other inputs that can help account for some IPP "unluckiness" that players may have. This is also where it would help to combine the results with live viewings on a player and see if the eyes back up what the data shows. If Greig was creating chances and his teammates couldn't finish them, then we know his low IPP was undeserved and he likely should've finished with more points. If we saw that he was being more of a passenger then we may conclude that his lower IPP was deserved.
 

DatsyukToZetterberg

Alligator!
Apr 3, 2011
5,549
738
Island of Tortuga
Rank Player
1 Alexis Lafreniere
--------------
2 Quinton Byfield
--------------
3 Marco Rossi
4 Tim Stutzle
5 Lucas Raymond
6 Cole Perfetti
--------------
7 Anton Lundell
8 Jamie Drysdale
9 Seth Jarvis
10 Alexander Holtz
11 Yaroslav Askarov
--------------
12 Jan Mysak
13 Mavrik Bourque
14 Lukas Cormier
15 Connor Zary
16 Noel Gunler
17 Rodion Amirov
18 Jacob Perreault
--------------
19 Zion Nybeck
20 Dylan Holloway
21 Jack Quinn
22 Lukas Reichel
23 Jeremie Poirier
24 Jake Sanderson
25 Marat Khusnutdinov
26 Dawson Mercer
27 Sam Colangelo
--------------
28 Martin Chromiak
29 Tyson Foerster
30 Daniil Gushchin
31 Emil Andrae
32 Roni Hirvonen
33 Dmitry Ovchinnikov
34 Alexander Pashin
35 Hendrix Lapierre
36 Daniel Torgersson
37 William Villeneuve
38 Ryan O'Rourke
39 Brendan Brisson
--------------
40 Veeti Miettinen
41 Luke Evangelista
42 Yevgeni Oksentyuk
43 Emil Heineman
44 Kasper Simontaival
45 Roby Jarventie
46 Helge Grans
47 Joel Blomqvist
48 Connor McClennon
49 Ridly Greig
50 Jack Finley
51 Brett Berard
52 Sean Farrell
53 Thomas Bordeleau
54 Kaiden Guhle
55 Pavel Novak
56 Ozzy Wiesblatt
57 Jacob Dion
--------------
58 John-Jason Peterka
59 Jake Neighbours
60 Justin Sourdif
61 Ryan Francis
62 Tristen Robins
63 Braden Schneider
64 Tyler Tullio
65 Evan Vierling
66 James Hardie
67 Justin Barron
68 Carter Savoie
69 Michael Benning
70 William Wallinder
71 Oskar Magnusson
72 Maxim Beryozkin
73 Maxim Nevolin
74 Danil Aimurzin
--------------
75 Topi Niemela
76 Brandon Coe
77 Zayde Wisdom
78 Kyle Crnkovic
79 Mitchell Miller
80 Colby Ambrosio
81 Samuel Knazko
82 Joni Jurmo
83 Theodor Niederbach
84 Oliver Tarnstrom
85 Ivan Didkovsky
86 Alex Cotton
87 Ronan Seeley
88 Tomi Niku
--------------
88 Mikael Pyyhtia
89 Juuso Maenpaa
90 Eemil Viro
91 Shakir Mukhamadullin
92 Pavel Gogolev
93 Vasili Ponomaryov
94 Xavier Simoneau
95 Rory Kerins
96 Brady Burns
97 Benjamin Baumgartner
98 Dameon Hunt
99 Alec Belanger
--------------
100 Jean-Luc Foudy
101 Billy Constantinou
102 Yegor Sokolov
103 William Dufour
104 Kasper Puutio
105 Carson Bantle
106 Stephen Haliday
107 Eamon Powell
108 Brock Faber
109 Thimo Nickl
110 Tomas Chlubna
111 Karel Klikorka
112 Jaromir Pytlik
113 Wyatt Schingoethe
--------------
113 Riley McCourt
114 Yaroslav Likhachyov
115 Gage Goncalves
116 Eli Zummack
117 Yegor Chinakhov
118 Dmitry Sheshin
119 Maxim Musorov
120 Maxim Marushev
121 Petr Hasek
122 Vladislav Myagkov
123 Yegor Stepanov
124 Viktor Persson

Players in Italic are over-agers


Some quick notes:

  • For the most part the rankings were a mix of using NHLe and age and era adjusted ES and PP scoring numbers. I've seen a few players play via WJC and some CHL games, but not in a large enough sample so I tried to not let those viewings bias my rankings.
  • Each "--------------" represents a tier shift. Players within a tier are pretty much interchangable. The tiers really begin to blend around 40 and you could argue for players to be higher or lower and you'd valid points for each side. The last tier are interesting players that could be around in the 6th/7th round.
  • Of the 112 players ranked in the had 79 forwards, 31 defenceman and 2 goalies. This is not a good draft for defenceman at all and I expect NHL teams to reach considerably on them leaving a number of good forwards available for the later rounds. I only ranked 2 goalies because they're really the only 2 I reaaaaally like and would consider using a non 5th-7th round pick on.
  • I think you can get solid middle 6 players/2nd pairing dmen all the way to 87, after that I think it's mostly longshots.
  • The players I'm highest on relative to consensus are: Rossi, Cormier, Colangelo, Dion, Ovchinnikov, Finley, Oksentyuk, Niku, and Pyyhtia.
  • The players I'm lowest on are: Pytlik, Ponomaryov, Foudy, Guhle, Schneider, Wallinder, Niederbach, and Peterka.

This was my draft board last go around and not much has changed except for a few players that I moved up or down a few spots. I think the biggest movers were Villeneuve, Poirier, Sanderson, Johanesson, and some of the overagers.

This is likely my final update. As always I use a mix of NHLe and age and era adjusted scoring numbers. This inherently leads to more offensive players being ranked higher - this is something I'm okay with as I think it's easier to project offence than defence output. I'll also generally say that players within 1 or 2 tiers of one another are relatively the same, I wouldn't argue too hard if someone had Petrka in the 7th tier as opposed to the 9th.

TierNAMEDY+/-
1Alexis LafreniereDY
2Quinton ByfieldDY
3Marco RossiDY
3Cole PerfettiDY
3Lucas RaymondDY
3Tim StutzleDY
4Anton LundellDY
4Jamie DrysdaleDY
4Seth JarvisDY
4Alexander HoltzDY
4Yaroslav AskarovDY
5Connor ZaryDY
5Rodion AmirovDY
5Mavrik BourqueDY
5Jan MysakDY
5Noel GunlerDY
5Lukas ReichelDY
5Jake SandersonDY
6William VilleneuveDY
6Jeremie PoirierDY
6Zion NybeckDY
6Jack QuinnDY
6Sam ColangeloDY
6Jacob PerreaultDY
6Marat KhusnutdinovDY
6Dylan HollowayDY
7Alexander PashinDY
7Veeti MiettinenDY
7Tristen RobinsDY
7Martin ChromiakDY
7Tyson FoersterDY
7Lukas CormierDY
7Dmitry OvchinnikovDY
7Daniel TorgerssonDY
7Dawson MercerDY
7Daniil GushchinDY
7Hendrix LapierreDY
7Roni HirvonenDY
7Emil AndraeDY
7Anton JohannessonDY
8Justin SourdifDY
8Pavel NovakDY
8Jack FinleyDY
8Ozzy WiesblattDY
8Jake NeighboursDY
8Ridly GreigDY
8Luke EvangelistaDY
8Connor McClennonDY
8Braden SchneiderDY
8Sean FarrellDY
8Emil Heineman
8Kasper SimontaivalDY
8Helge GransDY
8Kaiden GuhleDY
8Brendan BrissonDY
8Ryan O'RourkeDY
8William WallinderDY
8Roby JarventieDY
8Alex CottonDY+1
8Yevgeni OksentyukDY+1
8Brett BerardDY
8Michael BenningDY
8Topi NiemelaDY
9Samuel JohannessonDY+1
9Jacob DionDY
9Ryan FrancisDY
9Thomas BordeleauDY
9Tomi NikuDY
9Joni JurmoDY
9Tyler TullioDY
9Maxim BeryozkinDY
9James HardieDY
9Brandon CoeDY
9Rory KerinsDY
9Maxim NevolinDY
9Samuel KnazkoDY
9Evan VierlingDY
9Zayde WisdomDY
9Jacob TruscottDY
9Oskar MagnussonDY
9Mitchell MillerDY
9Colby AmbrosioDY
9John-Jason PeterkaDY
9Carter SavoieDY
9Benjamin BaumgartnerDY+2
9Theodor NiederbachDY
10Billy ConstantinouDY+1
10Yegor SokolovDY+2
10Shakir MukhamadullinDY
10Alec BelangerDY
10Kasper PuutioDY
10Miguel TourignyDY
10William DufourDY
10Danil AimurzinDY
10Eamon PowellDY
10Donovan SebrangoDY
10Cross HanasDY
10Kyle CrnkovicDY
10Brady BurnsDY
10Alex LaferriereDY
10Vasili PonomaryovDY
10Pavel GogolevDY+2
10Justin BergeronDY+2
10Axel RindellDY+2
10Justin BarronDY
10Oliver TarnstromDY
11Sergei Safin-TregubovDY
11Jean-Luc FoudyDY
11Xavier SimoneauDY+1
11Isaak PhillipsDY
11Ryker EvansDY
11Lukas SvejkovskyDY
11Reid ValadeDY
11Jack ThompsonDY
11Jaromir PytlikDY
11Oscar JohnssonDY
11Bogdan TrineyevDY
11Ivan DidkovskyDY
11Juuso MaenpaaDY
11Charlie DesrochesDY
11Pavel TyutnevDY
11Viktor PerssonDY
11Gage GoncalvesDY+1
11Riley McCourtDY+2
11Ilya SolovyovDY+2
11Louka HenaultDY+1
11Gunnarwolfe FontaineDY+1
11Ty JacksonDY+1
11Mikael PyyhtiaDY
11Maxim MarushevDY+3
12Thimo NicklDY
12Victor ManciniDY
12Ivan ZinchenkoDY
12Jake BoltmannDY
12Stephen HallidayDY
12Wyatt SchingoetheDY
12Luke TuchDY
12Rami MaattaDY
12Simon KubicekDY
12Ronan SeeleyDY
12Tomas ChlubnaDY
12Karel KlikorkaDY
12Eli ZummackDY+2
12Elliot EkmarkDY
12Petr HasekDY
12Vladislav MyagkovDY
12Yegor StepanovDY+2
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

  • I still have Rossi at 3, but I really think anyone from my 3rd tier will end up becoming an impact player. They all have statically profiles of past top 3 picks and should make an impact relative soon.
  • I think at least 1 of the players in my 5th tier should be available at #32, but if there isn't I think almost everyone in that 6th tier projects to be a 2nd line Forward or 2nd Pairing Dman.
  • I really like the depth of this class and I think there should be a ton of interesting prospects available for us throughout the draft. I'd consider trading back with one of later 2nds if it meant we could get another mid round pick and draft someone like Novak, Pashin, Cotton, etc.
  • This drafts strength is on the wing in the later rounds so I really hope we just go BPA as the defensive crop this year is quite underwhelming overall.
  • Anton Johanneson could be the steal of the draft. I'd really have no qualms if we took him at #32
 
Last edited:

Rzombo4 prez

Registered User
May 17, 2012
5,980
2,698
This was my draft board last go around and not much has changed except for a few players that I moved up or down a few spots. I think the biggest movers were Villeneuve, Poirier, Sanderson, Johanesson, and some of the overagers.

  • I still have Rossi at 3, but I really think anyone from my 3rd tier will end up becoming an impact player. They all have statically profiles of past top 3 picks and should make an impact relative soon.
  • I think at least 1 of the players in my 5th tier should be available at #32, but if there isn't I think almost everyone in that 6th tier projects to be a 2nd line Forward or 2nd Pairing Dman.
  • I really like the depth of this class and I think there should be a ton of interesting prospects available for us throughout the draft. I'd consider trading back with one of later 2nds if it meant we could get another mid round pick and draft someone like Novak, Pashin, Cotton, etc.
  • This drafts strength is on the wing in the later rounds so I really hope we just go BPA as the defensive crop this year is quite underwhelming overall.
  • Anton Johanneson could be the steal of the draft. I'd really have no qualms if we took him at #32

Why the Johanneson love exactly. I don't mind the player but am not begging to draft him necessarily.
 

Tetsuo

Boss of a Pile of Rubble
Apr 11, 2018
1,491
1,337
Michigan
1. Laf
2. Byfield
3. Stutzle
4. Raymond
5. Askarov
---
6. Sanderson
7. Perfetti
8. Drysdale
9. Lundell
10. Jarvis
11. Quinn
12. Reichel
---
13. Holtz
14. Perreault
15. Gunler
16. Grieg
17. Zary
18. Borque
19. Brisson
20. Schnieder
---
21. Rossi
22. Mercer
23. Grans
24. Mysak
25. Guhle
26. Colangelo
27. Niederbach
28. Daws
---
29. Holloway
30. Wallinder
31. Lapierre
32. Jurmo
33. Amirov
34. Petereka
35. Andrae
36. Ovchinikov
37. Robins
38. Khusnutdinov
39. Heineman
40. S. Johanneson
---
41. Forester
42. A. Johanneson
43. Evangelista
44. Wiesblatt
45. Wisdom
46. O'Rourke
47. Bordeleau
48. Sourdif
---
49. Hunt
50. Viro
51. Ponomarev
52. Foudy
53. Neighbors
54. Mukhamadullin
55. Neighbors
56. Nybeck
57. Cotton
58. Novak
---
59. Blomqvist
60. Torgersson
61. Francis
62. Barron

Some notes:
  • The "---" demarks the rough tiers. There are for sure sub tiers, e.g. I have Sanderson and Perfetti much higher than the rest of the players in tier II. I will be some amount of happy with any pick from the first two tiers at 4th OA.
  • Rossi has plummeted for me. I have fully moved him out of the top few groups, and I could be swayed to move him even further down. I really do not like his fit in the NHL. He's the only pick that has been suggested for Detroit that I would hate. I like his vision, IQ and compete, which is why I had him so high initially. But I think his skating is going to limit his minutes a lot at the NHL level and his offensive tools just don't scream 1st line player at all.
  • I would also not be a huge fan of Holtz. His shot, while good, is overrated. His defense is also very underwhelming. I could be convinced to move him down pretty easily too.
  • Jarvis is the biggest riser from when I began looking at this draft. I love his motor and think he will be top line W.
  • Reichel has shot up the board for me too. His overall package screams top 6 C.
  • Lundell is massively underrated, his floor is just so high. I heard Ryan O'Rielly as a comparable and I can see it. His vision is great.
  • The biggest faller is actually Poirier. Had him in my first round initially and after thinking it through I don't see how I could take him in this first two rounds or even later.
  • X-factor players are Daws, Lapierre, Jurmo, both Johannessons, Ovchinikov and Robins. I think I could be way underrating them and they could be much better than where I have them.
 

Ed Ned and Leddy

Brokering the Bally Sports + Corncob TV Merger
Apr 1, 2019
3,611
5,811
Detroit to DC
Tiers for me

1. Alexis Lafreniere

*decent gap*

2. Quinton Byfield/Jamie Drysdale

*small gap*

3. Lucas Raymond/Tim Stutzle/Marco Rossi

*small gap*

4. Alexander Holtz/Cole Perfetti

*decent gap*

5. Jake Sanderson/Hendrix Lapierre/Seth Jarvis/Yaroslav Askarov

Tough year for me to gauge though. The gaps are generally small margins of preference, and I'm less bullish on my opinions than I have been in other years.
 
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DatsyukToZetterberg

Alligator!
Apr 3, 2011
5,549
738
Island of Tortuga
Why the Johanneson love exactly. I don't mind the player but am not begging to draft him necessarily.

This is just from his statistical profile, but in my prospect model he compares pretty favorable to prospects like Boqvist and Brannstrom. He didn't play much in his D-1 season and I think that has led to him being a bit under scouted and under appreciated. He was the top offensive dmen in the U16 in his D-2 season and I wonder what he could've done last year if he was healthy. If he had played more last year and had been able to play in the Hlinka & the U18s this year I think there's a real chance he could be looked at as at least a top 30 pick, if not top 15 in a similar way that Brannstrom was in 2017.

I think he is the most skilled offensive dman from Sweden this draft and is my favorite of the class. Even when you account for his inflated totals at ES he still comes out quite favorable and would be the top offensive D from Sweden this year. He may be undersized, but he's not bad defensively and he is a fine to good mobile defender. I think due to his size and lack of exposure he'll fall to the mid 2nd or later where he begins to become an excellent value selection.

I know he's not always well received here, but Scouching does a good job of breaking down Johannesson's game.
 
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Sep 28, 2017
6,515
6,627
Grand Rapids, MI
This is just from his statistical profile, but in my prospect model he compares pretty favorable to prospects like Boqvist and Brannstrom. He didn't play much in his D-1 season and I think that has led to him being a bit under scouted and under appreciated. He was the top offensive dmen in the U16 in his D-2 season and I wonder what he could've done last year if he was healthy. If he had played more last year and had been able to play in the Hlinka & the U18s this year I think there's a real chance he could be looked at as at least a top 30 pick, if not top 15 in a similar way that Brannstrom was in 2017.

I think he is the most skilled offensive dman from Sweden this draft and is my favorite of the class. Even when you account for his inflated totals at ES he still comes out quite favorable and would be the top offensive D from Sweden this year. He may be undersized, but he's not bad defensively and he is a fine to good mobile defender. I think due to his size and lack of exposure he'll fall to the mid 2nd or later where he begins to become an excellent value selection.

I know he's not always well received here, but Scouching does a good job of breaking down Johannesson's game.

Sounds like a Hakan pick :)
 

MBH

Players Play
Jul 20, 2019
13,497
7,298
SE Michigan
redwingsnow.com
1. Byfield
2. Lafreniere
-
3. Sanderson
4. Stutzle
5. Askarov
6. Perfetti
7. Jarvis
8. Drysdale
9. Raymond
-
10. Holtz
11. Rossi
12. Quinn
13. Lundell
14. Zary
15. Lapierre
-
16. Grieg
17. Schneider
18. Reichel
19. Guhle
20. Gunler
21. Khusnudtinov
-
22. Mercer
23. Mysak
24. Bourque
25. Bordeleau
26. Brisson
27. Robins
28. Foerster
29. Peterka
30. Perrault
31. Amirov
-
32. Rashevsky
33. Wallinder
34. O’Rourke
35. Evangelista
36. Neiderbach
37. Seeley
38. Heineman
39. Mukhamadullin
-
40. Jurmo
41. Togersson
42. Colangelo
43. Wiesblatt
44. S Johannesson
45. Foudy
46. Wisdom
47. Holloway
48. Neighbors
49. Hanas
--
50. Persson
51. Hunt
52. Finley
53. Kuznetsov
54. Gogolev
55. Groshev
56. Peterson
57. Cormier
58. Faber
59. Poirier
60. Smilanic
61. Commesso
62. Grans
And two more, just because the wings draft 64th
63. Cotton
64. Barron

-- denotes tiers

*if you're in the top 9, you're sitting pretty for a good player.
I think some of those centers, like Zary, Lundell and Lapierre, could end up being more valuable than the Wingers like Raymond, or Perfetti/Rossi if they shift to wing.

* Teams like Chicago and Montreal... Remember all the hissyfits about the draft order (me included). Well, they showed why. They win a round and boom, they go from 8/9 to 16/17 or whatever. That's a big fall for two teams that probably need the picks.

Wings taking Sanderson/Rashevsky/Foudy/Groshev/Grans
is nowhere near as exciting as the draft app drafts I've been drafting
 
Last edited:

Dead Thing

Registered User
Jun 24, 2018
91
27
First a couple of disclaimers-
1) I do not watch a lot of Canadian junior hockey(let alone American college hockey)so I have not seen any of the draft eligible players other than the recent World Juniors. Most of the info I have read has come from comments on this board and reading some talking heads.
2)I try not to get overly hyped about the entry draft(which officially started in 1963). I have been watching hockey since '58 and I have seen far too many first picks fizzle and later round choices become stars.

My druthers would have been as follows:

1) Byfield-Fills one of the two major organizational needs-strength down the middle. Imagine a line of Rasmussen/Byfield/Mantha.
2) Given that we are (at least marginally) stronger on the wing, Laf drops to #2 even though he is immensely talented and is likely the only player who will make the NHL next year.
3) Askarov-the second of our major needs is a #1 tender. It is very possible that he might actually be the best player available period. I will have no problem taking at him at 4OA.
 
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