Series Talk: PENS vs Montreal Canadiens Round 1 (Best Of Five) - Episode II: On a peur, très peur!

[Scandale du Jour]

Last few posts:

I think the bigger thing is WAR is and has been proven to be a horrible stat for hockey.

I'm not especially interested in the stat, honestly.

It's how the lines match up.

Jake-Sid-Hornqvist
Zucker-Geno-Rust

That's a goddamn unbelievable top-6. The 2nd line may be better than the 1st, and the Sid/Jake combo is crazy.

This assumes, of course, Sid and Horny can deal with each other for the length of this exhibition tourney masquerading as the NHL playoffs. They've had months away from each other, maybe it'll work? It won't.

One of Guentzel's best qualities is that he is f***ing incredible playing with both Crosby and Malkin.

I’ll take Crosby over any C in the league in a playoff series.

Also, I think using regular season stats from what will be a season 4 months removed is not really relevant.

I’d also argue having a month of practice is way more important to chemistry than regular season games.

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[Gurglesons]

Jake on the ice.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Jake on the ice.

Je suis heureux, très heureux!

JAKE WOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

 

[K Fleur]

Jake on the ice.

 

[Ugene Magic]

I’ll take Crosby over any C in the league in a playoff series.

Also, I think using regular season stats from what will be a season 4 months removed is not really relevant.

I’d also argue having a month of practice is way more important to chemistry than regular season games.

These will not be your regular practices due to covid restrictions. With you on rest.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

These will not be your regular practices due to covid restrictions. With you on rest.

Regular practices will happen in a few weeks. There are different phases. We will have plenty of time to work on strategy and re-build chemistry.

 

[Gurglesons]

These will not be your regular practices due to covid restrictions. With you on rest.

Which likely means they will exclusively be doing drills with their line mates. I dunno.

 

[Ugene Magic]

But they will be without opposition. Not that practices are full out contact anyways.

Scan said they'd be back to regular practice eventually.

 

[Empoleon8771]

 

[Scandale du Jour]

But they will be without opposition. Not that practices are full out contact anyways.

Scan said they'd be back to regular practice eventually.

It would be Phase 3:

Phase 3 - Not Earlier than First Half of July
* Not earlier than first half of July, formal training camps will begin after guidance from medical and civil authorities.

Source: NHL announces Return to Play Plan

 

[Empoleon8771]

From watching that video, I think I saw Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel, Rust, JJ, McCann and DeSmith on the ice for the Penguins there. They're probably doing sessions of 6 on both ice surfaces at the Lemieux complex, so there's probably about 12 Penguins in total.

I think I saw Letang in the Crosby session too, it's super blurry but one of the players on the far side of the ice leaning over looked like Letang.

Edit: saw this on twitter, Marino and Dumoulin are skating too:

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Jake on the ice.

Please let his shoulder be 100%.

Jake-Sid-Hornqvist
Zucker-Geno-Rust

That's a goddamn unbelievable top-6. The 2nd line may be better than the 1st, and the Sid/Jake combo is crazy.

This assumes, of course, Sid and Horny can deal with each other for the length of this exhibition tourney masquerading as the NHL playoffs. They've had months away from each other, maybe it'll work? It won't.

Yeah except it's gonna start with Sheary on that 1st line.

We'll see how long that sticks.

I’ll take Crosby over any C in the league in a playoff series.

Also, I think using regular season stats from what will be a season 4 months removed is not really relevant.

I’d also argue having a month of practice is way more important to chemistry than regular season games.

Me too. But one player is not an entire line.

Good regular season stats for all 3 members of a line thanks to 2 years to build chemistry is a factor, particularly when the line its being compared to has one player who hasn't had a good season in years, and another who just joined the team. 4 months off doesn't change that.

Chemistry-wise, coming into this series the edge clearly goes to Tatar-Danault-Gallagher over Zucker-Crosby-Sheary.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

If Tatar-Danault-Gallagher is the best line a team can ice, we should not be scared of that team.

I love that line, particularly Danault, but if that's your #1 line... well...

 

[HandshakeLine]

Je suis heureux, très heureux!

JAKE WOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Laissez les bons temps rouler!

 

[Bingo71]

If Tatar-Danault-Gallagher is the best line a team can ice, we should not be scared of that team.

I love that line, particularly Danault, but if that's your #1 line... well...

While true, I sure as hell hope the players don’t feel the same way...

These are exactly the type of series’ that the Pens shit the bed in and everyone wonders WTF happened afterward.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

A dark horse benefit for the Pens is maybe the time off to rest/recover sees a new Bjugs return for that third line. I know he's nothing special, and everyone wants him gone asap (myself included), but he has been an injury mess for the majority of his season.

Same could be said of McCann and his game. The time off could end up giving us a solid jolt of depth with a third line of Sheary-McCann-Bjugs.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I feel like people are overrating analytics if they think a top line of Tatar-Danault-Gallagher is better than a top line with Zucker and Crosby on it

Tatar is a 50-60 point offense only winger. Danault is a 50 point 2-way 2C. Gallagher is a 50-55 point winger. Using past Penguins players for comparison, Tatar is about equal in ability to Zucker today, Gallagher is about equal in ability to Hornqvist in like 2015 and Danault is about equal in ability to Staal in 2012. If you took every one of those players and made a Zucker-Staal-Hornqvist line, it would be a pretty solid 1st line. But it's not Zucker-Crosby-XXXX good, and certainly not Guentzel-Crosby-XXXX good.

And even if we were pretending that the Habs 1st line cancels out the Penguins top line, who cares? The Penguins 2nd-4th lines kill the Habs, the Penguins have 2 great 1st line and 2 great 3rd lines. The Habs have 1 great 1st line, 2 mediocre middle-6 lines and a bad 4th line.

 

[Bingo71]

I feel like people are overrating analytics if they think a top line of Tatar-Danault-Gallagher is better than a top line with Zucker and Crosby on it

Tatar is a 50-60 point offense only winger. Danault is a 50 point 2-way 2C. Gallagher is a 50-55 point winger. Using past Penguins players for comparison, Tatar is about equal in ability to Zucker today, Gallagher is about equal in ability to Hornqvist in like 2015 and Danault is about equal in ability to Staal in 2012. If you took every one of those players and made a Zucker-Staal-Hornqvist line, it would be a pretty solid 1st line. But it's not Zucker-Crosby-XXXX good, and certainly not Guentzel-Crosby-XXXX good.

True, but it’s all about chemistry and how they can exploit the matchup.

 

[Gurglesons]

True, but it’s all about chemistry and how they can exploit the matchup.

Well good thing we’d have Guentzel - Malkin - Rust coming over the boards prior or after that line.

Malkin and Guentzel are 2 and 3 amongst active players in ppg in the playoffs + 30 games.

 

[K Fleur]

A dark horse benefit for the Pens is maybe the time off to rest/recover sees a new Bjugs return for that third line. I know he's nothing special, and everyone wants him gone asap (myself included), but he has been an injury mess for the majority of his season.

Same could be said of McCann and his game. The time off could end up giving us a solid jolt of depth with a third line of Sheary-McCann-Bjugs.

A fully rested and motivated Bjugs might just win his first board battle!

 

[Empoleon8771]

A fully rested and motivated Bjugs might just win his first board battle!

He's OFY due to surgery

 

[K Fleur]

He's OFY due to surgery

He has about as much of a chance to win a board battle from the surgical table as he does on the ice!

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I feel like people are overrating analytics if they think a top line of Tatar-Danault-Gallagher is better than a top line with Zucker and Crosby on it

Tatar is a 50-60 point offense only winger. Danault is a 50 point 2-way 2C. Gallagher is a 50-55 point winger. Using past Penguins players for comparison, Tatar is about equal in ability to Zucker today, Gallagher is about equal in ability to Hornqvist in like 2015 and Danault is about equal in ability to Staal in 2012. If you took every one of those players and made a Zucker-Staal-Hornqvist line, it would be a pretty solid 1st line. But it's not Zucker-Crosby-XXXX good, and certainly not Guentzel-Crosby-XXXX good.

Eh, Gallagher's more in his bag of tricks than 2015 Hornqvist. He can skate and create his own chances, which is a pretty significant difference. But more relevant to this discussion, he offers an awful lot more than 2020 Sheary.

That, and 2 years of playing with one another has a lot of benefits compared to a much less familiar trio.

And even if we were pretending that the Habs 1st line cancels out the Penguins top line, who cares? The Penguins 2nd-4th lines kill the Habs, the Penguins have 2 great 1st line and 2 great 3rd lines. The Habs have 1 great 1st line, 2 mediocre middle-6 lines and a bad 4th line.

I don't think anyone was evaluating the whole series based on a comparison between 1st lines. Obviously our 2nd line would obliterate theirs, and that alone likely makes the difference.

 

[Gurglesons]

@Soggy Biscuit ‘s narrative of Sheary being the worst player in the league ever is finally fully revealed.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

@Soggy Biscuit ‘s narrative of Sheary being the worst player in the league ever is finally fully revealed.

Sheary is what he is: a one-dimensional 30-35 point forward.

Saying that Brendan Gallagher is a much, much better player isn't exactly a minority opinion.