Big McLargehuge
Fragile Traveler
Ok, so back by popular demand (thanks Hottubber), here is the re-posting of my analysis of the Joe Morrow trade.....
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Yeah, it seems that there have been some (and mostly) fan-generated expectations of Joe Morrow. The hype got built up, and certain expectations were made by fans and posters on these boards (not the Pens' scouts, but fans) about exactly what type of player Joe Morrow was. So let's take the words from the Pens own scouts & management....
At the time of the draft, they did some draft videos with Randy Sexton. Upon being interviewed, Sexton described Morrow as more of a trigger-man, and not so much of a quarter-back. Obviously, Joe still has overall skills that will help him be effective on a PP, but fans & posters on this board devised their own expectations of Joe Morrow that were not necessarily on the same page as the Pens' own views of this player. (and I like Joe Morrow, so I'm just giving the unbiased reality-check here)
I also said after the draft, when a lot of people were lamenting the selections of Pouliot at #8 and two Dmen overall in the 1st round of the draft, that: "If the Pens really felt that Joe Morrow was the next Duncan Keith, and Simon Despres was the next Brent Seabrook" (i.e. elite, all-world, first-pairing Dmen) "then the Pens would probably not have drafted 2 more Dmen in the first round". To this statement, the responses that I got were mostly of the "that's a good & vaild point" variety.
The truth is: Morrow is NOT an elite prospect (aka blue-chip, top-15/20 prospect in the league overall, etc). For example, he did not make last year's WJC Olympic team or named top 1 or 2 Dmen in the WHL last year). Now the difference is: Simon Despres has stepped in and surprised all of us with either just how good he has been this year, or how quickly & seamlessly he has transition. Harrington has continued his ascension into one of the best (and seemingly most underrated) prospects in the league, and Pouliot and Maatta have also continued to improve their stock and gain experience. We have also had a guy like Robert Bortuzzo step in and, despite not getting enough ice-time to go around, we know this guy is a legit NHL defenseman for us, and potentially for a long time; and even a surprise like Samuelsson, a great debut as a pro for Biran Dumoulin, and maybe a real decent prospect in D
Agostino. Morrow, conversely, didn't open new eyes this year as an elite prospect. And while this doesn't mean that he can't become a great player one day, his ultimate/overall upside may not be as high as some of the other guys in our system
And then, the most forgotten men in this: Paul Martin and Matt Niskanen: 1) Martin: the way he has turned his game around and contributed 5-on-5, PK, and perhaps most surprisingly the PP, suggests that this is a player who may very well not only finish out his contract here in PGH, but perhaps even be extended (Brooks and his salary will be gone by then, and hopefully the cap bounces up after next year, etc.). Martin has been a revelation, and has taken that right-side & PP spot for the next few years that some may have had Joe Morrow pencilled in for. 2) Matt Niskanen has FULLY turned around from being a reclammation project to a full-blown legit top-4 Dman who can play right or left side, and can play on the PP unit. He's also a better PK & 5-v-5 player than Morrow is now, even if he doesn't have quite the shot or quite the speed. So again, Niskanen may very well be a player that we look to extend for several more seasons. So when you factor in even one, or perhaps both, of Martin & Nisky, PLUS all the other great prospects we have on D, Morrow may not have really had a spot here. (Yes, he was one of our "top-6 prospects", but obviously wans't one of our top-6 Dmen in our organization overall when you factorin in guys who could be here medium-long term: Letang, Niskanen, Martin, Despres, Pouliot, Dumoulin, Bortuzzo, Maatta, Samuelsson and D'Agostino. Of that group, Morrow may well have been rated #7 or #8)
And of course: I would have rather traded Morrow for an established guy like Stewart or Iginla, or top prospect like Coyle, Niederreiter or Filip Forsberg
And finally, I will end my treatise here: people are forgetting the much maligned Tyler Kennedy. It's very possible that Brendan Morrow essentially bumps TK out of the 3rd line spot (Bennet would skate on RW there, his natural position), and TK could absolutely garner something like a 3rd round pick, or even a 2nd rounder, this year, because he is not a rental and is an RFA this year. So the deal *might* essentially be Brendan Morrow + 3rd rounder (plus another 2nd/3rd rounder) for Joe Morrow, because people wanted Kennedy out anyway.
And to add a point from the Murray thread that I posted: it's still very possible that we move out RFAs like Jeffrey and/or TK in the summer, or move a guy like Orpik, or less likely Niskanen, who are guys that still have term left on their deals (and this probability increases if we were to end up retaining Brendan Morrow, D. Murray, or sign another UFA like Iginla, etc). So while I'm not too happy with giving up two 2nds for Murray, we may make some other moves that very quickly make us forget about those draft picks. So we'll need to wait and see how things unfold in the larger picture (i.e. how we perform in this playoff run, and what other trades/signings we make prior to the draft or in the summertime) before we can properly assess everything that has happened this far. There are still a lot of moving parts, so we'll have to see how things go and exactly where we are in terms of asset management, draft picks & prospects, and player/personnel, when the dust settles after the summer and when next season begins.
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