Post-Game Talk: Pens/Devils: A Penguins 7 day trip to a warm place in hell

[vikingGoalie]

Thing is James Neal would not be effective if he had Cullen as his center. Sprong's skill set is greatly amplifyed if he has someone on his line that is a danger to do something thus giving him a little bit more space/time. It was only ONE shift and it was by accident/circumstance. But Sprong/Malkin seemed to have instant chemistry. I do not understand Sully at all. If you are getting blown out in a game, try Sprong with Malkin (for example), set yourself up down the road to see if anything is there or if it was just one shift. Right now we really don't know what we have in Sprong. We do need the points, but I dont get how a few shifts here and there trying something other then things that didn't work before is gonna hurt. Why not try Sprong/Sid/Simon even? That did work for a game or two before it petered out. Sprong and Simon seem to click as well, Sullivan's refusal to try anything different will ultimately get him fired unless Murray goes into god mode.

 

[Empoleon8771]

So he's just been unlucky and hasn't contributed to the GA stat? Not criticizing that argument, just questioning it. I guess we will see if that trend continues.

Either way, all of Sprong's advanced stats suck. I recognize some of the driver is linemate quality and zone starts (although he is nearly middle of the pack with 47.62% ozone starts), but he's still not playing well and I see nothing to suggest he deserves more ice time over anyone else.

He has caused some goals against, but he has generally been unlucky and that has inflated his GA totals. I don't think any individual player can impact team GA stats that dramatically, so seeing a guy with a lot of goals against and a bad on ice save% just makes me think it's not his fault. I personally don't judge skaters based on GA stats, I look more at the chances they're giving up. But even with that, there are limitations there. If 2 guys are bleeding chances against at the same rate, but one has an on ice save% of 85% and the other has a 95%, I'm not going to say the guy with the 95% on ice save% is better.

I just think that there are no good defensive advanced stats out there right now, so the only way to truly judge how good a player is defensively is to objectively watch them. Even with CA, HDCA and whatnot, they're still on ice stats, they're not individual stats.

Thing is James Neal would not be effective if he had Cullen as his center.

Bingo. What did James Neal do with Mark Letestu as his center? 1 goal in 20 regular season games and 2 goals in 27 total games, one of which was a total fluke shot from the wall.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

All of Sprong's underlying stats suck, so the question is to what degree do they suck because of linemates/position he is put in vs his contributions on the ice? It's likely a combination of the two, but if I'm being honest, I just don't see him doing a lot on the ice that makes me want to play him with Sid in head to head matchups against the other team's best line. Like it or not, that is how Sully deploys Sid so there is always this balance of giving Sid offensive talent to play with and making sure that line is defensively responsible. Sully isn't a fan of Sprong so some of the deployment is bias, but some making sure that line continues to win possession and be good defensively.

Sprong has been out on the ice for 7 GA in 87 minutes of 5 on 5 ice time or 4.8 per 60 minutes. That's the worst on the team for forwards. Some of his common linemates are close with Sheahan at 4.7 and Cullen at 4.6. Crosby and Jake are at 1.8. I'm not so sure adding Sprong to that line will help the team as a whole IF we believe that Sprong is personally contributing to his GA/60 figure. Simon, who most posters have been comparing Sprong too in terms of getting opportunities, has a GA/60 of 2.1. This is one stat so I shouldn't make too much of it, but I think it gives you an idea of why he might get more opportunity than Sprong.

Edit: Just to build off of this, I looked at G diff per 60 at 5 on 5 (GF/60 less GA/60). The leaders on the Pens right now are Letang at 2.08, Simon at 2.07, and Crosby at 2.05. Big Rig is next at 1.55 followed by Jake at 1.50, Kessel at 1.33, Dumo at 1.28, Schultz at 1.23, Malkin at 0.65 and everyone else is below 1.

The worst on the team? Chad Ruhwedal at -4.91 (although small sample size of 5 games) followed by Sheahan at -2.99 who I have always been underwhelmed by and Sprong at -2.75. JJ is next -2.36 (he sucks).

Who are these players playing with?
How are they being deployed?

Simon's most common lines have been with Guentzel/Crosby and Brass/Rust, combos that Sprong would probably murder someone for. Crosby and Jake are established star players who a) play together and b) only see ~40% d-zone starts. Sprong's a 21 year old scoring wing prospect who's being deployed like a defensive specialist with 58% d-zone starts beside Sheahan and Cullen who have stunk out loud.

You're expecting him to turn Sully's green apple splatters into wine.

I've asked this open question before and never received a satisfactory answer: Have you ever seen a scoring wing prospect succeed being used like this? Because I sure haven't.

 

[Tom Hanks]

Guys, we played through every Murray vs Fleury conversation for the entirety of last year. Can we collectively move on?

Moving on to Murray vs De Smith

Seriously though Murray is our starter but I think De Smith should get more games than he’s getting at the moment. Their numbers are night and day. At some stage it’s not a case of it’s all on the team in front.

Murray
Starts 9, SV% .886, GAA 3.87, QS 3 (33%)

De Smith
Starts 4, SV% .932, GAA 2.25, QS 3 (75%)

 

[Empoleon8771]

Throwback for you guys, these were the goals that Neal scored in that first year with Crosby and Malkin out for the second half of the year:




Those were his first 2 goals with the Penguins. I'm bringing up Neal because Sprong has the same problems with his ability to score as Neal does. If you don't put him with a center who can set him up for shots, he's not going to score goals. You can't judge his ability to produce when playing with guys like Cullen, Sheahan and Grant because he's not the kind of player who's going to be able to produce with no talent on his line. He hasn't been good this year, but you can't draw any conclusions about him because he has been used horrendously on the year.

 

[Shady Machine]

Who are these players playing with?
How are they being deployed?

Simon's most common lines have been with Guentzel/Crosby and Brass/Rust, combos that Sprong would probably murder someone for. Crosby and Jake are established star players who a) play together and b) only see ~40% d-zone starts. Sprong's a 21 year old scoring wing prospect who's being deployed like a defensive specialist with 58% d-zone starts beside Sheahan and Cullen who have stunk out loud.

You're expecting him to turn diarrhea into wine.

I've asked this open question before and never received a satisfactory answer: Have you ever seen a scoring wing prospect succeed being used like this? Because I sure haven't.

I'm pointing out why Sully might be hesitant to give him more minutes with Crosby when his advanced stats are the worst on the team for forwards. Yes his linemates suck, but statistically, he is performing worse than them in many cases.

I'm expecting him to be better than he has been, but I recognize the situation he is put in is not the most advantageous for him. Having said that, I'm not so sure more time with Crosby is better for the team. Since this is a team game, well...

Anyway, now that scoring has dried up, I think it makes sense to take some chances, so I would be pleased to see Simon-Crosby-Sprong, although I get why Sully doesn't want to go there.

 

[ronduguayshair]

 

[Empoleon8771]

Madden doesn't make good points very often nowadays, but he's pretty dead on with this.

 

[Peat]

Like it or not, that is how Sully deploys Sid so there is always this balance of giving Sid offensive talent to play with and making sure that line is defensively responsible. Sully isn't a fan of Sprong so some of the deployment is bias, but some making sure that line continues to win possession and be good defensively.

While this is 90% true, I'm pretty sure the Simon-Crosby-Sprong line was an exception to the rule, being used primarily in a home stand and with Sully using it to pick on opposing lines. Its not his favoured option but its one he will use occasionally and that I think we'll see again if Sprong is put onto Sid's line.

For this to happen though, Sully's gonna need to be very happy that at least one and preferably two of his other lines can take on anyone with no sweats. Or in other words, anyone who wants to see Sprong with Sid should be praying very, very hard for the success of HMH.

On the other side of that coin, what have Rust and Hagelin done to make anyone think they have outplayed Sprong?

I'm glad you asked

I think Hagelin's offensive contributions have gone underrated. Some of his screens for Kessel have been as important as any assist, but he's not got the credit. And he's been part of a strong line. He might be the least important member, but even Malkin and Kessel can't carry total passengers - he might not be figuring in on the score sheet, but I think his forechecking and space creation has been an important part of the dynamic. Certainly the possession numbers from Malkin and Kessel without Hagelin backs that up.

Rust's been a possession driver in every combination other than the nightmare RSH. He hasn't got his attacking game going but he's been generating chances, particularly when retrieving the puck from corners. He's been reliable in transition and (maybe not coincidentally) has been one of our best shot suppressing forwards.

When I compare their defensive efforts to Sprong, I believe they're outperforming him heavily. Sprong's producing well, but not by enough for me to say he's the better player right now, particularly when I think there's an element of luck attached to him having more points when looking at offensive contributions.

So he's just been unlucky and hasn't contributed to the GA stat? Not criticizing that argument, just questioning it. I guess we will see if that trend continues.

Either way, all of Sprong's advanced stats suck. I recognize some of the driver is linemate quality and zone starts (although he is nearly middle of the pack with 47.62% ozone starts), but he's still not playing well and I see nothing to suggest he deserves more ice time over anyone else.

The guy with by far the highest HDCA/60 on the team and the only guy to be in the bottom 5 for all defensive possession stats other than Justin "Mr PDO" Schultz is probably more than just unlucky.

 

[Tom Hanks]

Madden doesn't make good points very often nowadays, but he's pretty dead on with this.

Hockey Reference says we are the 10th oldest team and the youngest we’ve been since 2013/14.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I'm pointing out why Sully might be hesitant to give him more minutes with Crosby when his advanced stats are the worst on the team for forwards. Yes his linemates suck, but statistically, he is performing worse than them in many cases.

Well like I said, he's a 21 year old scoring wing prospect being used as a defensive specialist. If seasoned defensive players like Cullen and Sheahan are struggling with their usage, why would anyone think Sprong would do better?

I'm expecting him to be better than he has been, but I recognize the situation he is put in is not the most advantageous for him. Having said that, I'm not so sure more time with Crosby is better for the team. Since this is a team game, well...

Anyway, now that scoring has dried up, I think it makes sense to take some chances, so I would be pleased to see Simon-Crosby-Sprong, although I get why Sully doesn't want to go there.

That's putting it mildly haha. Hard to imagine how it could be worse.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

When I compare their defensive efforts to Sprong, I believe they're outperforming him heavily. Sprong's producing well, but not by enough for me to say he's the better player right now, particularly when I think there's an element of luck attached to him having more points when looking at offensive contributions.

"Luck".

 

[Peat]

Well like I said, he's a 21 year old scoring wing prospect being used as a defensive specialist. If seasoned defensive players like Cullen and Sheahan are struggling with their usage, why would anyone think Sprong would do better?

They wouldn't. And it sucks. But he's getting marked on output, not the reasons behind it.

*snip gifs*

"Luck".

Yes, because that really answers the point I was making.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The thing with bringing up Hagelin's and Rust's defensive game is that their defense game hasn't been that much better than Sprong's. Sprong really hasn't been a problem defensively this year for the most part, and defense really doesn't matter in a comparison of players where none of them are great or terrible defensively. I don't think possession stats or perceived defensive abilities trump actual production, because actual production is way more important for winning games.

Rust and Hagelin have both been bad in my eyes this year. Their possession stats, which aren't even that good in the first place, don't negate out their lack of production. This is especially true when you consider who they're playing with. I think people overrate possession stats, especially in small sample sizes. This isn't saying Sprong has been good this year, he overall hasn't been good, I just think Rust and Hagelin have also been bad.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

They wouldn't. And it sucks. But he's getting marked on output, not the reasons behind it.

NHL.com - Stats

Yes, because that really answers the point I was making.

You were talking about an element of luck to Sprong's production and I just showed that half of his points were a product of great individual efforts.

 

[Peat]

The thing with bringing up Hagelin's and Rust's defensive game is that their defense game hasn't been that much better than Sprong's. Sprong really hasn't been a problem defensively this year for the most part, and defense really doesn't matter in a comparison of players where none of them are great or terrible defensively. I don't think possession stats or perceived defensive abilities trump actual production, because actual production is way more important for winning games.

Rust and Hagelin have both been bad in my eyes this year. Their possession stats, which aren't even that good in the first place, don't negate out their lack of production. This is especially true when you consider who they're playing with.

You've been watching a different team to me if you think Sprong's looked as defensively sound as Hagelin and Rust. There's been a good few goals and plays where I've thought Sprong looked out of position and lost in his zone - I can't think of any where I've thought that about Hagelin and Rust. Not to mention they've been far better at clearing their zone and forechecking.

And preventing the other team from scoring is as important as scoring. It mightn't be as easy to quantify - although any world in which we regard Sprong collecting a loose puck and making a really simple pass to Letang as being more important than Hagelin fighting hard to stay in position in front of a goaltender, tying up the dman and allowing Kessel to collect his own rebound and score has obvious problems with quantifying offence - but it matters just as much. Everything I'm seeing, on ice and on the stat sheet, is telling me that Hagelin and Rust are doing more in both fields combined than Sprong is.

Also I don't think we should be dismissing the difference in possession based solely on who they're playing with. Hags has been with Geno and Phil, which is not usually a possession line - except they have been with Hags, and they've been woeful without him. Which is true going back forever. Hagelin is what makes those two a possession line. And Rust has played with almost as any different line mates as Sprong,

p.s. One final stat which I consider illuminating here - one of the bottom 6's problems has been the bottom 4. They've just not been getting the support they need to be successful. This can be quickly isolated by comparing their stats with Letang to without.

Most of our bottom 6's possession stats skyrocket dramatically when put with Letang. Only one of them stays in the mid-40s all round when with Letang, and that's Sprong. If not even Tanger can make Sprong look defensively competent on a stat sheet, then maybe we've got to consider its him and not the others.