Speculation: Penguins looking to trade Bryan Rust?

[Empoleon8771]

Josh Yohe was interviewing Rutherford and GMJR made some interesting quotes that make you think that the Penguins may be shopping Rust for a LW.

Rutherford plans on signing some of his team’s restricted free agents — Oleksiak and Sheahan are the most prominent among them — but can’t guarantee signing all of them.

“We’ll see,” he said. “We have to be careful. We can’t put ourselves in a position where we have too much money locked up. We don’t want to lose a player that we want to keep in the next couple of years.”

The Penguins have 5 RFAs who spent a majority of the time on the roster last year in Rust, Oleksiak, Sheahan, Simon and Kuhnhackl. Simon and Kuhnhackl aren't going to be getting any sort of raises and Oleksiak and Sheahan were mentioned as priorities to re-sign, which leaves Rust. Rust is also really the only guy looking at a significant pay raise. Considering the Penguins re-signed Hornqvist long term and still have Kessel, you can also read what JR said as he doesn't want to commit too much money to RW.

Following that, Rutherford also mentioned that he wanted to improve the "balance" of their forward group, and you can interpret that to either meaning a balance of LWers and RWers (the Penguins have a horrible imbalance right now towards RW) or skill vs grit. Both of these ideas fit with a recent rumor that the Penguins offered Rust and Simon to Arizona for Domi, since Domi is more skilled (which would be the skilled/grit balancing by trading Rust for him) and Domi plays LW (which is the RW/LW balance).

So basically, it looks like the Penguins may be looking to trade Rust for a LW because they don't want to commit too much money to RW. I don't know if they'd be targeting a skilled LWer like Domi for Rust, but I think you can definitely see the Penguins looking to make that kind of a trade.

Click to read more...

 

[CaptPantalones]

Paging Jason Botterill

 

[Empoleon8771]

Paging Jason Botterill

I can't see anyone realistic on the Sabres that the Penguins would trade Rust for, to be honest. They'd probably be targeting a LWer for him and the Sabres are really weak on LW.

 

[Toby Flenderson]

I really hope not. He’s such a good player

 

[FreeBobbyFarnham]

Nah we're not trading Rust.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

How about a deal based around Sobotka?

 

[McCoy]

Perhaps Kahun is needs.

 

[Empoleon8771]

How about a deal based around Sobotka?

I'd want Fabbri for Rust, which is more in line with the Penguins going after Domi with using Rust as a trade chip. I think the purpose of trading Rust would be:

1. Saving some money on RW, since they have Kessel and Hornqvist making $12.1 million combined and Sprong likely getting a nice raise in the near future if he hits
2. Balancing out the RW/LW depth, since the Penguins are horribly imbalanced right now on the wings
3. Getting some more skill to play with Crosby and Malkin, since they really only have 1 skilled LWer in Guentzel. I feel like Sheary is very likely being traded this week.

 

[FreeBobbyFarnham]

If he wants balance then dump Kuhnhackl and Rowney. Trade Sheary for a LW. Problem solved.

 

[Empoleon8771]

If he wants balance then dump Kuhnhackl and Rowney. Trade Sheary for a LW. Problem solved.

That does nothing because you still have the issue of spending a lot of money on RW, because you didn't even touch your RW by doing this.

If Sprong hits, the Penguins will have 4 top-6 RWers and 1 top-6 LWer. Assuming Rust gets $3 million, the Penguins will be spending $16+ million on their 4 RWers and under $9 million on LW. There's a huge imbalance there.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

I'd want Fabbri for Rust, which is more in line with the Penguins going after Domi with using Rust as a trade chip. I think the purpose of trading Rust would be:

1. Saving some money on RW, since they have Kessel and Hornqvist making $12.1 million combined and Sprong likely getting a nice raise in the near future if he hits
2. Balancing out the RW/LW depth, since the Penguins are horribly imbalanced right now on the wings
3. Getting some more skill to play with Crosby and Malkin, since they really only have 1 skilled LWer in Guentzel. I feel like Sheary is very likely being traded this week.

I’d deal Fabbri in a package for Kessel, but not Rust. No disrespect, but I just think Fabbri is better. I will admit that it’s impossible to know how he’ll play this year, but I’m convinced he’ll be just fine.

 

[Spazkat]

I'd want Fabbri for Rust, which is more in line with the Penguins going after Domi with using Rust as a trade chip. I think the purpose of trading Rust would be:

1. Saving some money on RW, since they have Kessel and Hornqvist making $12.1 million combined and Sprong likely getting a nice raise in the near future if he hits
2. Balancing out the RW/LW depth, since the Penguins are horribly imbalanced right now on the wings
3. Getting some more skill to play with Crosby and Malkin, since they really only have 1 skilled LWer in Guentzel. I feel like Sheary is very likely being traded this week.

Blues seem pretty high on Fabbri- plus given their center depth, it seems unlikely they'd trade one off for a winger with a sub 40 point career high.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I’d deal Fabbri in a package for Kessel, but not Rust. No disrespect, but I just think Fabbri is better. I will admit that it’s impossible to know how he’ll play this year, but I’m convinced he’ll be just fine.

Blues seem pretty high on Fabbri- plus given their center depth, it seems unlikely they'd trade one off for a winger with a sub 40 point career high.

I think both of these are fair, I wouldn't do Fabbri for Rust straight up without some sort of enticing add. I just think that's the kind of player the Penguins would be targeting, they'd want someone similar to Domi with using Rust as the main trade chip. I don't see them trading Rust for someone like Sobotka, I think the absolute least they'd want is a LW version of Rust that doesn't make too much money.

 

[belair]

Buyer beware.

 

[HockeyAnalystGenius]

Puljarvi for Rust.

 

[FreeBobbyFarnham]

That does nothing because you still have the issue of spending a lot of money on RW, because you didn't even touch your RW by doing this.

If Sprong hits, the Penguins will have 4 top-6 RWers and 1 top-6 LWer. Assuming Rust gets $3 million, the Penguins will be spending $16+ million on their 4 RWers and under $9 million on LW. There's a huge imbalance there.

Or we could try Sprong on LW. He's right handed and with his shot he could be a threat. He's used to playing on the left side on the PP.

Guentzel - Sid - Hornqvist
Sprong - Malkin - Rust
Hagelin - Brassard - Kessel

 

[Empoleon8771]

Buyer beware.

Beware of what? That he's an excellent 2-way player capable of hitting 40 points a season? Seems like a really odd player to say "buyer beware" about. Sheary? Yeah, I could see that, but Rust is such a strong 2-way player that the comment doesn't make sense.

Or we could try Sprong on LW. He's right handed and with his shot he could be a threat. He's used to playing on the left side on the PP.

Guentzel - Sid - Hornqvist
Sprong - Malkin - Rust
Hagelin - Brassard - Kessel

If they were going to play Sprong on LW, they would have had him play there by now. But they haven't, so it's pretty clear they intend on having him at RW.

 

[molon labe]

This would be short sighted imo. Sheary can fetch the bottom pair Defensemen we need and RW is where we need to make room. Rust can comfortably play LW, is coming off a down year (which will make him cheap to retain), and is one of the hardest working guys on the team. He plays lines 1-4 on any given night and comes with no baggage- stupid to trade a guy like that.

Not only that, he's been gold for us for the two postseason runs where we weren't run ragged.

 

[belair]

Beware of what? That he's an excellent 2-way player capable of hitting 40 points a season? Seems like a really odd player to say "buyer beware" about. Sheary? Yeah, I could see that, but Rust is such a strong 2-way player that the comment doesn't make sense.

He's a nice complimentary winger. But unless the team acquiring him has a Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin to send him out there with, that production mostly evaporates. He's never hit 40 with them, I'm convinced he would never do it without them. He's a middle six depth winger that can you can afford to play higher in the lineup if someone else is driving the offense. Props to Chayka for turning that offer down.

 

[CaptPantalones]

I can't see anyone realistic on the Sabres that the Penguins would trade Rust for, to be honest. They'd probably be targeting a LWer for him and the Sabres are really weak on LW.

Fair enough. I just think its inevitable you see a move between the 2 given the Pens cap needs. Figure it could be any of the supporting wings

 

[Empoleon8771]

He's a nice complimentary winger. But unless the team acquiring him has a Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin to send him out there with, that production mostly evaporates. He's never hit 40 with them, I'm convinced he would never do it without them. He's a middle six depth winger that can you can afford to play higher in the lineup if someone else is driving the offense. Props to Chayka for turning that offer down.

Based on.......? Look, I can see his production decreasing when not playing with Crosby and Malkin, but "mostly evaporates"? That's just you talking out of your ass. Rust has just as strong of a points/60 with Crosby as he has away from Crosby, believe it or not. It's just a meme to pretend that these guys are sitting in front of the net as Crosby or Malkin banks pucks off of them.

And saying "he's never hit 40 with them" is super disingenuous even if it's technically true. Rust had 38 points last season in 69 games, he would have easily hit 40 points had he stayed healthy. Rust produces a lot at ES, he has averaged 38 ES points per 82 games in the last 2 seasons, he has fantastic possession stats and can play in all situations. He's a top-6 player, he's a 2-way 2nd liner.

If you're going to question wingers on the Penguins based on Crosby and Malkin, Rust is the last guy you should be asking about. Guentzel makes more sense to question than Rust, and I think everyone realizes Guentzel is really good.

 

[bluetuned]

Blues seem pretty high on Fabbri- plus given their center depth, it seems unlikely they'd trade one off for a winger with a sub 40 point career high.

For reference, Fabbri is not a center at this point. There has been occasional talk of trying him there in the pros, but it's most likely that he spends his career as a wing.

That said, I'll second that Rust makes a ton of sense for the Blues. Relatively inexpensive right-handed winger who can chip in 15 goals. At the moment the Blues Top 9 is almost entirely left-handers. Thomas, Kyrou, and Thompson look to change that in time, but none are established yet, and who knows if they're all still in the system 3 months from now.

Fabbri is a tough ask for both teams given his current state. If he recovers he likely has a better career than Rust, but full recovery is a big if right now.

 

[belair]

Based on.......? Look, I can see his production decreasing when not playing with Crosby and Malkin, but "mostly evaporates"? That's just you talking out of your ass. Rust has just as strong of a points/60 with Crosby as he has away from Crosby, believe it or not. It's just a meme to pretend that these guys are sitting in front of the net as Crosby or Malkin banks pucks off of them.

And saying "he's never hit 40 with them" is super disingenuous even if it's technically true. Rust had 38 points last season in 69 games, he would have easily hit 40 points had he stayed healthy. Rust produces a lot at ES, he has averaged 38 ES points per 82 games in the last 2 seasons, he has fantastic possession stats and can play in all situations. He's a top-6 player, he's a 2-way 2nd liner.

If you're going to question wingers on the Penguins based on Crosby and Malkin, Rust is the last guy you should be asking about. Guentzel makes more sense to question than Rust, and I think everyone realizes Guentzel is really good.

This is my point. His production--which is essentially around 30-35 points on average over the past two seasons decreasing isn't particularly enticing. You're right though, 'mostly evaporating' is probably a tad bit extreme. But a 20-30 point winger doesn't hold a ton of value in this league, especially when you're branding him as a top six player.

He might be a good two-way RW, but he's a RW. The defensive responsibilities of wingers is wildly overrated on these boards. The majority of wingers who get branded as 'poor defensive forwards' generally produce significantly more than Bryan Rust does because players willing to take more risks to create offense, generally create more offense. If he was a poor defensive player, he probably wouldn't be in the NHL.

If I wanted to find a good comparable for him, I'd look at the return Jannik Hansen got from SJ at the deadline a couple of seasons ago--which ultimately turned out to be a less than stellar buy for them. Robby Fabbri as an expected return for Rust is ambitious to say the least.

 

[bluetuned]

Ambitious is the right word for the suggestion of Fabbri as the return.

Fabbri paced for 44 points over his 20 and 21 year old seasons. Rust paced for 43 points over his 24 and 25 year old seasons.

Fabbri's value is lowered because of his knee problems, but that's also why the Blues are unlikely to move him unless it's an overpayment. Better for them to hang onto him and see if he returns to form than move him for just a moderate return.

 

[Empoleon8771]

This is my point. His production--which is essentially around 30-35 points on average over the past two seasons decreasing isn't particularly enticing. You're right though, 'mostly evaporating' is probably a tad bit extreme. But a 20-30 point winger doesn't hold a ton of value in this league, especially when you're branding him as a top six player.

He might be a good two-way RW, but he's a RW. The defensive responsibilities of wingers is wildly overrated on these boards. The majority of wingers who get branded as 'poor defensive forwards' generally produce significantly more than Bryan Rust does because players willing to take more risks to create offense, generally create more offense.

If I wanted to find a good comparable for him, I'd look at the return Jannik Hansen got from SJ at the deadline a couple of seasons ago--which ultimately turned out to be a less than stellar buy for them. Robby Fabbri as an expected return for Rust is ambitious to say the least.

He was on pace for 40 points in 2016-2017 and was on pace for 45 points this season. He's not a "20-30 point winger without Crosby and Malkin", that's a ridiculous claim to make. I think you're just underrating Rust here. I don't know if he brings back Fabbri or a Fabbri equivalent player, but that's the kind of player the Penguins are probably looking at for Rust.

If I had to guess, they'd either want to do something like the rumored Domi offer (Rust+ for Domi) or they'd want to get basically a LW version of Rust that's either cheaper or younger. The latter is similar to the Hagelin deal from 2015, where the Rangers more or less traded him straight up for Emerson Etem (it was Etem and a mid 2nd for Hagelin, a late 2nd and a 4th IIRC). Hagelin is probably the best player comparison for Rust, although Rust is more skilled and versatile.