Confirmed with Link: Penguins avoid arbitration with Dumoulin for another 6 years AAV $4.1million

[Al Smith]

That's actually a very interesting point to bring up. CapFriendly has an "post-tax earnings" calculator. According to it, Dumoulin will pay $1,828,640 in income tax on his $4,100,000 salary, leaving him with a net of $2,271,360. Comparatively, Ekholm will pay $1,342,170 in income tax on his $3,500,000 salary, leaving him with a new of $2,167,830.

It won't work out exactly this way because players pay income tax based on their daily salaries in each state. But since the majority of working days are going to come in their home state, it's should be an acceptable estimation.

The income tax angle is interesting. On the other hand, having lived in a few states that don't have a state income tax, they tend to make up for it through other taxes (excessive sales/property tax, vehicle registration, etc.). Does CapFriendly take those into account?

 

[Pens x]

I don't think Rutherford had a choice here. He had to sign him.

But the fact that he played top unit minutes does not mean he is a top 2 defender. Our defense was and is pretty depleted. Dumo had all of the bargaining power here. We don't have anyone knocking on the door in the minors who could replace Dumo. We are close to the cap ceiling so he couldn't be easily replaced. He was definitely overpaid. You can think this was an overpayment and still agree with it. I just don't understand how people think it's a good or even decent deal. But JR had no other choice.

 

[CertifiedLurker]

I don't think Rutherford had a choice here. He had to sign him.

But the fact that he played top unit minutes does not mean he is a top 2 defender. Our defense was and is pretty depleted. Dumo had all of the bargaining power here. We don't have anyone knocking on the door in the minors who could replace Dumo. We are close to the cap ceiling so he couldn't be easily replaced. He was definitely overpaid. You can think this was an overpayment and still agree with it. I just don't understand how people think it's a good or even decent deal. But JR had no other choice.

First they weren't close to the cap ceiling before they signed this deal, they were 10m away. Second, if it is an overpayment its not by much, at worst its like half a mil over except that they bought UFA years.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

Dumoulin is not overpaid, Hunwick is (slightly). If Pouliot and Ruhwedel show they can do the job in training camp, and Letang is healthy, Hunwick should be in consideration to be moved. Heck, if JR needs the cap space to acquire the centers he needs, he should look to move Hunwick as part of the package.

Or, we could move Cole I suppose.

 

[Shady Machine]

Dumoulin is not overpaid, Hunwick is (slightly). If Pouliot and Ruhwedel show they can do the job in training camp, and Letang is healthy, Hunwick should be in consideration to be moved. Heck, if JR needs the cap space to acquire the centers he needs, he should look to move Hunwick as part of the package.

Or, we could move Cole I suppose.

We just signed Hunwick. He isn't going anywhere unless he sucks.

 

[Ogrezilla]

I don't think Rutherford had a choice here. He had to sign him.

But the fact that he played top unit minutes does not mean he is a top 2 defender. Our defense was and is pretty depleted. Dumo had all of the bargaining power here. We don't have anyone knocking on the door in the minors who could replace Dumo. We are close to the cap ceiling so he couldn't be easily replaced. He was definitely overpaid. You can think this was an overpayment and still agree with it. I just don't understand how people think it's a good or even decent deal. But JR had no other choice.

he's overpaid for right now because he's an RFA. Had we signed him for a 2 year deal right now, we'd be looking at a 5M+ deal when we need to re-sign him as a UFA in 2 years. The term is why it's a good deal. We not only get him locked up, but we get 4 years of discount for the sake of 2 years of slight over-payment.

And he's played top 2 minutes in two consecutive cup runs. One as a complement to Letang, one as the #1. How many times does he need to do it to be considered a top 2 d-man?

 

[ColePens]

He's overpaid in what way, though? I'm trying to think of scenarios where he wouldn't be given this deal or more. What team does he sign on that he signs cheaper? I just don't see it.

 

[Pens x]

First they weren't close to the cap ceiling before they signed this deal, they were 10m away. Second, if it is an overpayment its not by much, at worst its like half a mil over except that they bought UFA years.

A half million overpayment is substantial on a $4 million aav deal.

And of course we are up against the cap, we still have to sign Sheary and possibly 2 centers.

We don't have a third line center and our fourth line center is contemplating retirement.

It's not an awful deal or anything. It just isn't one the the Pens won. Dumo cashed in big time considering his limited skill set.

We can agree to disagree

 

[Giskard]

A half million overpayment is substantial on a $4 million aav deal.

And of course we are up against the cap, we still have to sign Sheary and possibly 2 centers.

We don't have a third line center and our fourth line center is contemplating retirement.

It's not an awful deal or anything. It just isn't one the the Pens won. Dumo cashed in big time considering his limited skill set.

We can agree to disagree

Can you please explain how you found out that he is half a million over payed? And how would you sell to him and his agent to sign a 6 years contract of 3.6 million AAV.

 

[WayneSid9987]

I don't think Rutherford had a choice here. He had to sign him.

But the fact that he played top unit minutes does not mean he is a top 2 defender. Our defense was and is pretty depleted. Dumo had all of the bargaining power here. We don't have anyone knocking on the door in the minors who could replace Dumo. We are close to the cap ceiling so he couldn't be easily replaced. He was definitely overpaid. You can think this was an overpayment and still agree with it. I just don't understand how people think it's a good or even decent deal. But JR had no other choice.

Think the consensus is it's a decent deal.
He's a 4M dollar or more defender on any other team in the league.
We just hoped he came in cheaper for the next 2 seasons cuz of our Cap situation/Cup aspirations.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

There isn't a grossly over paid player on the Penguins at his moment. Even Maatta, there's a good chance he rebounds to where he should be and even then, it's not a contract that wouldn't be hard to move. There isn't one on this team.

 

[Dread Pirate Roberts]

I don't think Rutherford had a choice here. He had to sign him.

He could've let Dumo go to arbitration.



Correction: he should've let Dumo go to arbitration.

 

[radapex]

He could've let Dumo go to arbitration.



Correction: he should've let Dumo go to arbitration.

And then be left having to pay $5-mil+ for a replacement in 2 years time

 

[ColePens]

There isn't a grossly over paid player on the Penguins at his moment. Even Maatta, there's a good chance he rebounds to where he should be and even then, it's not a contract that wouldn't be hard to move. There isn't one on this team.

Agreed completely. And we don't have a single player who can't be moved. No Scuderi contracts.

Unreal situation to be in.

 

[Pick87your71Poison]

A half million overpayment is substantial on a $4 million aav deal.

And of course we are up against the cap, we still have to sign Sheary and possibly 2 centers.

We don't have a third line center and our fourth line center is contemplating retirement.

It's not an awful deal or anything. It just isn't one the the Pens won. Dumo cashed in big time considering his limited skill set.

We can agree to disagree

It's not an overpay though. Think of the deal as 2 years at $3.2mm as an RFA and 4 years at $4.55mm as a UFA. Most people thought around $3.2mm was the number in arbitration and a guy like Karl Alzner just signed for $4.625mm as a UFA and Alzner's contract runs from ages 28-33, while Dumo's is 25-31, which is perfect.

Whether you are a fan of Dumo or not, the contract is not an overpayment and perfectly fair. If we played this on a bridge deal for 2 @ $3.2mm, then to get him for 4 years it would have cost closer to $5mm/yr and more money overall. And somehow some people would feel a little better about it because he would be making the "fair" amount for the next 2 years. And that's not even taking into account any upside/improvement he may make because by locking him up, we get the benefit of that. If we go 2 years now, and he puts up more measurable #s over the next 2 seasons and the cap increases a bit, then he could easily be looking at $5mm+ in FA and it wouldn't be surprising at all.

 

[Pick87your71Poison]

Agreed completely. And we don't have a single player who can't be moved. No Scuderi contracts.

Unreal situation to be in.

Hey Scuds was apparently a very moveable asset and enough to bring us back a very useful piece for 2 cup runs.

But yeah, for all the people worrying about contracts and cap space, as it's been said for a while, we are the rare team with truly no objectively bad contracts. Every single player/contract on the team could be moved at any point with positive trade value so the team has plenty of flexibility to make whatever they need to work. Plus, we have enough contracts rolling off nicely staggered over the next few years to naturally free up space periodically without even needing to make a trade.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

What is so hard to understand? They paid a little more to buy UFA years which, unless you believe that Dumo regresses, would certainly cost more than this deal.

Both sides gave a little to come up with a very fair deal for all involved. The player got some security on a team he likes being on, the team got a moderate discount.

It ain't rocket surgery people. This is about as fair a deal as you could come up with.

 

[Ogrezilla]

He could've let Dumo go to arbitration.



Correction: he should've let Dumo go to arbitration.

I just don't get how you can think that. He will cost way more than 4.1M as a UFA in two years. Or just as likely, his less effective replacement will cost more than 4.1M as a UFA in two years. Or maybe even require us to trade more assets to replace him.

 

[Clare2904]

It's not an overpay though. Think of the deal as 2 years at $3.2mm as an RFA and 4 years at $4.55mm as a UFA. Most people thought around $3.2mm was the number in arbitration and a guy like Karl Alzner just signed for $4.625mm as a UFA and Alzner's contract runs from ages 28-33, while Dumo's is 25-31, which is perfect.

Whether you are a fan of Dumo or not, the contract is not an overpayment and perfectly fair. If we played this on a bridge deal for 2 @ $3.2mm, then to get him for 4 years it would have cost closer to $5mm/yr and more money overall. And somehow some people would feel a little better about it because he would be making the "fair" amount for the next 2 years. And that's not even taking into account any upside/improvement he may make because by locking him up, we get the benefit of that. If we go 2 years now, and he puts up more measurable #s over the next 2 seasons and the cap increases a bit, then he could easily be looking at $5mm+ in FA and it wouldn't be surprising at all.

It is posts like this that demand a "like" function

 

[Slabber Chops]

A half million overpayment is substantial on a $4 million aav deal.

And of course we are up against the cap, we still have to sign Sheary and possibly 2 centers.

We don't have a third line center and our fourth line center is contemplating retirement.

It's not an awful deal or anything. It just isn't one the the Pens won. Dumo cashed in big time considering his limited skill set.

We can agree to disagree

I'd sooner spend that $0.5m on retaining Dumo on a 6-year deal than spend it on Sheary or a replacement of similar quality. Sheary's just a whole lot more replaceable in this team.

Anyway. The fact of the matter is that each and every one of these signings is cannot and should not be considered in isolation. Look at the D-core, which has just gone back to back. You've got the top four defensemen locked up with a minimum of 5-year with the exception of Schultz who is for 3. Each and every one of them are on contracts that are shiftable if need be or a replacement supercedes them through the system.

I'd sooner that than a cheaper bridging contract or trading him for a similar level player on a cheaper but shorter contract. What happens then? You pay through the nose to get a replacement. For the next two seasons, the cap situation is easily manageable. It possibly becomes more challenging after that but with your top four guys all signed to increasingly affordable cap hits (when adjusted for inflation), that provides the flexibility to do something around keeping those young RFA forwards in the mix.

A lot of teams don't have this luxury 'and' can win the cup as well.

 

[mpp9]

Only potentially bad contracts on the horizon if Sheary keeps getting hurt, Kessel loses a step and/or PH gets too much for too long. Everything else seems pretty damn good during our window.

 

[Dread Pirate Roberts]

And then be left having to pay $5-mil+ for a replacement in 2 years time

I just don't get how you can think that. He will cost way more than 4.1M as a UFA in two years. Or just as likely, his less effective replacement will cost more than 4.1M as a UFA in two years. Or maybe even require us to trade more assets to replace him.

All I hear in defense of this contract is "two years!" "Two years!" "Two years!" Who knows if this team is even a contender in two years?

I do know that this team really ought to be a contender now. Only, the team has made a bunch of moves in the offseason which are all downgrades from last year's team. Paying a guy who produces nothing a big cap hit didn't make the current team better, and it makes it harder to improve the team at 3C, which could be the first step to making up for getting worse in G, on D, and on L4. Instead, they've painted themselves into a corner where they're likely to either stuck with a downgrade on L3 too or they downgrade a scoring line by ditching Sheary. All to give a bunch of money to a guy who doesn't produce, when they didn't have to, in a year that they could easily be a contender.

Plus, if Dumo goes to arbitration, he gets his ass kicked. That's a fact. Maybe that object lesson in the value of guys who don't produce would have made a difference in his demands next year.



Bottom line, they mortgaged the present for the future. That's pretty dumb when you're the defending Stanley Cup champions. The future is only more important than the present when your team sucks.

 

[WayneSid9987]

^ disagree with alot of that.
Right off the bat, this deal very likely saves $ after 2 yrs to still remain in the Cup window.

This team very likely doesn't win the Cup 3 years straight.
JR's planning for the years past that.
Reaves thing was to try and give the boys a little back up after continually getting ran every season. JR and the boys were tired of it.

 

[Ogrezilla]

All I hear in defense of this contract is "two years!" "Two years!" "Two years!" Who knows if this team is even a contender in two years?

I do know that this team really ought to be a contender now. Only, the team has made a bunch of moves in the offseason which are all downgrades from last year's team. Paying a guy who produces nothing a big cap hit didn't make the current team better, and it makes it harder to improve the team at 3C, which could be the first step to making up for getting worse in G, on D, and on L4. Instead, they've painted themselves into a corner where they're likely to either stuck with a downgrade on L3 too or they downgrade a scoring line by ditching Sheary. All to give a bunch of money to a guy who doesn't produce, when they didn't have to, in a year that they could easily be a contender.

Plus, if Dumo goes to arbitration, he gets his ass kicked. That's a fact. Maybe that object lesson in the value of guys who don't produce would have made a difference in his demands next year.



Bottom line, they mortgaged the present for the future. That's pretty dumb when you're the defending Stanley Cup champions. The future is only more important than the present when your team sucks.

I bet he would have gotten about 3.5 in arbitration. So adding the 4 extra years of Dumo means we lose Kuhnhakl? Sounds good to me.

And just for the record, Dumoulin is really freaking good despite not producing. He's at worst our 3rd most important D-man behind guys making 5 and 7 million. And I'm far from convinced that Schultz is more important to us than Dumoulin is.

Honestly, I'm conceding the notion that he's overpaid in the short term to allow some sort of conversation. I'm not at all convinced that it's true. I really couldn't disagree with you any more than I do.

 

[wej20]

I reckon Dumoulin would have got somewhere in the 3-3.5m on a 1 year deal, which sure would be great for next year but what happens in the summer when he needs re-signing again? It isn't like the pipeline is stocked, we don't have any prospects on the backend who look like they'll be NHLers anytime soon.

Is 1 year@ 3.25 million + 6 years @ 4.5 million better than 6 years @ 4.1 million?