Player Discussion Pavel Buchnevich: Part VI

[chosen]

Where'd you get that from?

Ramblings: Some words on Saros, Pionk, Sergachev, Schenn, Buchnevich, and Forsberg - April 16

 

[EdJovanovski]

Just read this:


There were 161 forwards in the NHL with at least 1000 minutes played at all strengths this year, per Evolving Hockey again. Of those 161 forwards, Buchnevich was 15th in WAR/60 minutes, finishing ahead of such luminaries as Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, Sean Couturier, and Jonathan Huberdeau. No, I don't think Buchnevich is better than every name on that list, but yes, I do think he's very much underappreciated for how good he is. He's improved his WAR/60 mark every season he's been in the NHL and is still in his prime. He's been dogged by the coaching staff, being scratched or stuffed in the bottom-6 with frequency in his career, and despite that, he's still been excellent for them.
It's important to know that Buch gets a good chunk of his WAR value from his defence and penalty drawing. Those aren't things that show up on the fantasy sheet. But I do think that he's more than earned a top-6 role for the foreseeable future in New York, and that makes it easier to project 50-point seasons for him.

I believe in his rookie season for like the first 20-something games he was 1st in the NHL in P/60 tied with Crosby. There are a lot of analytics that suggest there’s an argument to be made he’s elite.

I think he has top 3 hockey IQ on our team

 

[SA16]

Sounds like classic Evolving Wild/NHL Stats WAR people.

 

[UnSandvich]

Sounds like classic Evolving Wild/NHL Stats WAR people.

...meaning?

 

[Blue Blooded]

Sounds like classic Evolving Wild/NHL Stats WAR people.

...meaning?

IIRC WAR/60 says Buchnevich was better than Zibanejad this season. If you're an EW/WAR absolutist (these apparently exist on Twitter) that means Buch was better and there is no further investigation needed.

 

[UnSandvich]

IIRC WAR/60 says Buchnevich was better than Zibanejad this season. If you're an EW/WAR absolutist (these apparently exist on Twitter) that means Buch was better and there is no further investigation needed.

Ah, gotcha. In this case, Buch was the only one of 5 players to have his WAR/60 mentioned, or WAR at all. I think this is simply a bit of making the case for how good he's been.

 

[Thirty One]

It is our handsome boy's birthday today.

 

[EdJovanovski]

It is our handsome boy's birthday today.

More handsome than Hank!

 

[SnowblindNYR]

IIRC WAR/60 says Buchnevich was better than Zibanejad this season. If you're an EW/WAR absolutist (these apparently exist on Twitter) that means Buch was better and there is no further investigation needed.

Have you ever heard of the diaper/beer phenomenon in data mining? One type of data mining is called market basket analysis where you look at if you buy one item what other item are you likely to buy. A famous example is diapers and beer. It's not completely nonsensical, but not exactly a great insight. There's always noise in data.

And yes I'm agreeing with you.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

More handsome than Hank!

Translation:

Happy birthday to my friend. Wishing health, sports success, and fishing, of course. Waiting for him to visit.

 

[Thirty One]

Have you ever heard of the diaper/beer phenomenon in data mining? One type of data mining is called market basket analysis where you look at if you buy one item what other item are you likely to buy. A famous example is diapers and beer. It's not completely nonsensical, but not exactly a great insight. There's always noise in data.

And yes I'm agreeing with you.

You've never drank so much you lose control of your bowels and it shows.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

You've never drank so much you lose control of your bowels and it shows.

That was great!

 

[cwede]

enjoyed reading this

 

[romba]

enjoyed reading this

Soooo....definitely a late 1st

 

[Leetch3]

enjoyed reading this

no idea what those fancy stats mean but marc savard was REALLY good during the few year window between the time we gave him away in a terrible deal and his brain turned to mush...sign me up for that from buch minus trading him and the concussions of course.

 

[ohbaby]

Who will score the next goal? Ohbaby can't wait!

 

[B17 Apricots]

Bumped so we dont hijack Kravtsovs. The talents there for Buch, its really just been a matter of adding strength, consistency and his overall game. Cant forget that kids stock was sky high early last year. First quarter of the season he had 17 points in 20 games! That crazy cold streak where he had 2 in 15 games really dulled the season there but he finished strong, the kids been developing. In house you see guys like Brass, Hayes, Zib really hit a new level around 25/26. Buch played more minutes last year, has shown a more complete game. He's got another year under his belt, he knows whats expected now, you gotta do all those little things. With the kids and all the talent now I just dont know if he's gonna get the minutes to reach that next level.

 

[nyr2k2]

Buch has been a pleasant surprise to me. I remember when he first tasted adversity under Quinn, I kind of expected him to fold. He didn't, and in fact he battled through it and became a better player.

He used to annoy me because I thought there was a bit of wasted talent there, but I've come to appreciate who he is and what he does.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Buch has been a pleasant surprise to me. I remember when he first tasted adversity under Quinn, I kind of expected him to fold. He didn't, and in fact he battled through it and became a better player.

He used to annoy me because I thought there was a bit of wasted talent there, but I've come to appreciate who he is and what he does.

I also love that over the years he obtained a bit of a attitude/snarl on the ice. I love seeing personality on the ice from players.

 

[Roo Returns]

Buch had a nice regular season and he showed a little more snarl.

A decision must be made on him soon. They can probably pay him on a two year deal now that all the dead cap is coming off, but I'm going to bring up the old "Mike Keenan test." Is he someone who will elevate his game in the playoffs? Is he tough enough mentally and physically?

The answer so far is no.

Let's wee what happens this year.

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

If Buch turns into Marc Savard we almost would be guaranteed a Cup

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Bumped so we dont hijack Kravtsovs. The talents there for Buch, its really just been a matter of adding strength, consistency and his overall game. Cant forget that kids stock was sky high early last year. First quarter of the season he had 17 points in 20 games! That crazy cold streak where he had 2 in 15 games really dulled the season there but he finished strong, the kids been developing. In house you see guys like Brass, Hayes, Zib really hit a new level around 25/26. Buch played more minutes last year, has shown a more complete game. He's got another year under his belt, he knows whats expected now, you gotta do all those little things. With the kids and all the talent now I just dont know if he's gonna get the minutes to reach that next level.

I think those multiple hand injuries really limit him offensively, he hasn’t sniped a goal since his rookie season. His shot stinks now. Still a useful player though.

 

[will1066]

Things started to trend up when he became American.

 

[romba]

The only super lucky 50 point guy who makes the occasional dumb mistake is on our team. The rest of the 50 point guys in the league (aka 2nd liners) are all super smart all the time and just unlucky to get 50 points.

 

[Irishguy42]

Buchnevich has been an excellent playmaker since he came into the NHL. Had flashes of it early on, but it's really coming out as his tenure goes on.

He's not some elite driving force on a line, sure. But he's absolutely someone who can stir the drink/compliment the offensive weapons on the rest of his line. His IQ is great.

Best North American player we drafted in the 3rd round in 2013