A hometown discount for a lesser role without seeing what's out there in free agency? It's possible but how likely? Plus like you said 5.5 is too high for a third line center, so the Avs may not even offer that. I know Stastny has big ties to Denver but he'd be giving up a lot to stay.
I think ROR is more likely to stay because of RFA. Even if he's not happy with the role offered here what are his options? Say a 5.5x5 contract is on the table, is he going to turn that down just to go to arbitration? If he absolutely wants out I guess he does but even then the Avs control him. Otherwise if he's looking for long term money and the Avs offer it then it could be a solution. I agree that a trade is what brings up the possibility of letting ROR go however every indication from last year is the Avs will ask for the moon for him.
Stastny could easily be our #2 center this year, and then transition to LW along side Mackinnon in a Drouin type role when Mack is ready to take over as a top 2 center.
You just don't find really good play-making wingers that often either. We happen to have two of them on our team, and one of them is in the twilight of his career in Tanguay.
Later into Stastny's thirties he would be a very good veteran third line center as well. Pretty much like Koivu transitioned into for Anaheim.
I just see more of a fit when it comes to possibilities for Stastny staying with the team than I do with O'Reilly. Can you really ask a 22 year old to switch to LW as a career when hes that good at center?
Where Stastny is in age makes the transition to peripheral roles on wing or on the third line in the next few years make more sense.
I'd love to see something like,
___?___ - Duchene - Parenteau
Stastny - Mackinnon - Landeskog
McGinn - Heard? Sgarbossa? UFA? - Downie
in a couple years. With O'Reilly traded for JJ (I will always love this idea.)
JJ - EJ
Siemens - Barrie/Elliott
Hejda/Bigras - Barrie/Elliott
As I said, it's hard to expect O'Reilly to change his career path completely for this team, and hes far more valuable in a trade than Stastny.
Obviously I'd lock Stastny up before trading O'Reilly of course.
Edit : You could even sell Stastny on having a modified no trade clause, where by if in a couple years he isn't happy with his role. He could have a short list of teams he could be traded to. As others have said, none of the contending teams are going to be able to give him huge UFA dollars. He'd most likely have to go to a team even farther behind than we are in order to get close to what hes making now.