Paul Kariya and the HOF

[Randall Graves*]

What are the chances of him making it? I remember his first four or so years had him on the fast track to greatness. Then Gary Suter came along and changed his career forever with one of the biggest cheap shots of the last 10 years. Since then he's basically been a 'good' player and before his career is over he'll probably have 1,000 plus points.

Thoughts/

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[Leaf Lander]

True his career has been a little hazy since the Big Hit but if this yr is any indicater it surely appears that Paul can still fly and somehow he seems to have regained his old form.

5 more yrs of 80 to 100 point season plus a stanley cup win may help his chances.

Totals NHL 739 342 448 790 +41 Playoffs 41 16 21 37 -3

 

[CRUNK JUICE]

True his career has been a little hazy since the Big Hit but if this yr is any indicater it surely appears that Paul can still fly and somehow he seems to have regained his old form.

5 more yrs of 80 to 100 point season plus a stanley cup win may help his chances.

Totals NHL 739 342 448 790 +41 Playoffs 41 16 21 37 -3

I tend to agree, but I think he needs at least one more 100+ point season to give himself a better than average shot at it. That said, it's the HOCKEY HAll of Fame, so he'd probably get in if he retired tomorrow.

 

[Leaf Lander]

as of right now he hasn't accomplished enough to get into the hockey hall of fame.

 

[CRUNK JUICE]

as of right now he hasn't accomplished enough to get into the hockey hall of fame.

Really?

Paul Kariya's stats
GP G A P PIM GP G A P PIM
739 342 448 790 275 Playoffs 41 16 21 37 10
2 LAdy Byng's, 1 Hobey Baker


Cam Neely's stats
GP G A P PIM GP G A P PIM
726 395 299 694 1241 Playoffs 93 57 32 89 168
1 Bill Masterson trophy

Neely's in, and Kariya has a higher PPG, despite playing more of his career in a lower scoring era (and on a much crappier team), their playoff scoring rates are very similar (Neely at .956 ppg and Kariya at .902 ppg, with Kariya again playing in lower scoring era, under a defensive system during his one big plyoff run). Additionally, Kariya has more hardware, albeit a couple Lady Byng trophies, which rank right up there in terms of HHOF meaninglessness with the Masterson Trophy. Both suffered through injury trouble that hurt their productivity (Neely with his knee, Kariya with concussions). Both have 50 goal seasons, while Kariya has two 100+ point seasons to Neely's none. So if Neely's in (and I'm not saying he should be in, but he is), tell me why he should get in and Kariya shouldn't?

 

[MS]

What are the chances of him making it? I remember his first four or so years had him on the fast track to greatness. Then Gary Suter came along and changed his career forever with one of the biggest cheap shots of the last 10 years. Since then he's basically been a 'good' player and before his career is over he'll probably have 1,000 plus points.

Thoughts/

The impact of the Suter hit is hugely over-rated. People seem to think he went in the toilet after that, which just isn't the case.

In 1998-99, the first season after the injury, he scored 101 points, finished 3rd in league scoring, and was a first-team All-star. In 1999-00, he recorded 42 goals and 86 points to finish 4th in league scoring (and if he hadn't missed 8 games his PPG would have had him neck-and-neck with Jagr for the Art Ross), and was a 2nd-team All-star.

Kariya's production didn't really drop until the third and fourth seasons after being injured, which doesn't really correlate very well. He was way better than 'good' his first few seasons afterward.

__________

As for the HHOF, if he gets to 1000 points playing mainly in the dead-puck era (and with a lost season) he'll stand a strong chance. His bounce-back year this year was huge, and if he can maintain it for another few years his odds will be good. Having a big playoffs along the way will clinch it.

5 post-season All-star berths, 3 times top-5 in scoring, and two Lady Byngs is a nice resume. Certainly better than a lot of guys in there. From 1995-2000 he was pretty clearly a top-5 forward in the game.

 

[David]

Really?

Paul Kariya's stats
GP G A P PIM GP G A P PIM
739 342 448 790 275 Playoffs 41 16 21 37 10
2 LAdy Byng's, 1 Hobey Baker


Cam Neely's stats
GP G A P PIM GP G A P PIM
726 395 299 694 1241 Playoffs 93 57 32 89 168
1 Bill Masterson trophy

Neely's in, and Kariya has a higher PPG, despite playing more of his career in a lower scoring era (and on a much crappier team), their playoff scoring rates are very similar (Neely at .956 ppg and Kariya at .902 ppg, with Kariya again playing in lower scoring era, under a defensive system during his one big plyoff run). Additionally, Kariya has more hardware, albeit a couple Lady Byng trophies, which rank right up there in terms of HHOF meaninglessness with the Masterson Trophy. Both suffered through injury trouble that hurt their productivity (Neely with his knee, Kariya with concussions). Both have 50 goal seasons, while Kariya has two 100+ point seasons to Neely's none. So if Neely's in (and I'm not saying he should be in, but he is), tell me why he should get in and Kariya shouldn't?

Yeah, I agree with you. If Neely's in then so should Kariya...and I would argue hard and often about Neely being in since it opens the door for many undeserving individuals like Lindros to name just one.

 

[God Bless Canada]

Yeah, I agree with you. If Neely's in then so should Kariya...and I would argue hard and often about Neely being in since it opens the door for many undeserving individuals like Lindros to name just one.

You guys fail to see the big picture. There are two main reasons Neely's below a point-per-game for his career: he started in the league at age 18, and he was robbed of his prime years by injury. The guy never had a prime, yet he was still a four-time second team all-star.

Reality is that Mark Messier is the only player in the last 30 years who has combined goal scoring and physical play like Cam Neely. Neely's one of the defining players of his generation. Scouts will spend the next two decades looking for "the next Cam Neely." Sadly, they'll never find one.

Neely was a dominant force in the playoffs. Fourth all-time in post-season goals per game. A winner through and through, he elevated his play when it mattered most, the playoffs. Watch him play in the 1991 playoffs, and you'll see what I mean.

And the Neely we saw in the 1991 playoffs? That was what the hockey world would have seen for the next three to five years: an unstoppable force who could obliterate an opponent with his size, physical play and goal scoring ability. 70 goals per season would have been the norm. (And if you don't believe me, remember, he scored 50 goals in 49 games in 1993-94, playing on one leg).

As for Kariya, he's definitely not getting in at this point in his career. MS is right when he says that the Suter hit didn't have the impact that some think it did. Kariya scored over 100 points the following year. He was a second team all-star in 2002-03 (the year the Ducks advanced to the Stanley Cup final) and I believe he was also an all-star team selection in 1999-2000. (Although he didn't really play that well that year, despite his impressive numbers). He's never had that career-defining, legacy-building playoff.

He needs several seasons of top-end play to get in. Another all-star selection or two, a big playoff. He wasn't all that impressive for Anaheim in the 2003 playoffs.

This year was a wonderful bounce back year for Kariya. It's great to see, because he's one of the most tantalizingly talented players in the game, and a treat to watch. He needs to sustain it, though.

International play doesn't mean anything to the HHOF voters. They've proven that time after time in recent decades. If it did, Sergei Makarov would have gotten in on the first ballot.

 

[Kimi]

I want him to be in, but I don't think he will be right now. If he can make it past 35 and still be putting up the numbers and get a cup or two, then he'll have a better chance. Might take a weaker year for him to get in if he does.

 

[mmbt]

He only scored 50 goals once. He certainly had the talent to do it many times, but he stopped paying the price when he started getting those big, short-term contracts. You're only going to score so much taking 40 foot slappers.

Frankly, for most of his career he's been little more than a smaller version of Stephane Richer; float around, skate up the wing for a long slapshot, repeat. He really only had two seasons at superstar level, and he's been living off that rep ever since.

 

[CRUNK JUICE]

You guys fail to see the big picture. There are two main reasons Neely's below a point-per-game for his career: he started in the league at age 18, and he was robbed of his prime years by injury. The guy never had a prime, yet he was still a four-time second team all-star.

Reality is that Mark Messier is the only player in the last 30 years who has combined goal scoring and physical play like Cam Neely. Neely's one of the defining players of his generation. Scouts will spend the next two decades looking for "the next Cam Neely." Sadly, they'll never find one.

Neely was a dominant force in the playoffs. Fourth all-time in post-season goals per game. A winner through and through, he elevated his play when it mattered most, the playoffs. Watch him play in the 1991 playoffs, and you'll see what I mean.

And the Neely we saw in the 1991 playoffs? That was what the hockey world would have seen for the next three to five years: an unstoppable force who could obliterate an opponent with his size, physical play and goal scoring ability. 70 goals per season would have been the norm. (And if you don't believe me, remember, he scored 50 goals in 49 games in 1993-94, playing on one leg).

As for Kariya, he's definitely not getting in at this point in his career. MS is right when he says that the Suter hit didn't have the impact that some think it did. Kariya scored over 100 points the following year. He was a second team all-star in 2002-03 (the year the Ducks advanced to the Stanley Cup final) and I believe he was also an all-star team selection in 1999-2000. (Although he didn't really play that well that year, despite his impressive numbers). He's never had that career-defining, legacy-building playoff.

He needs several seasons of top-end play to get in. Another all-star selection or two, a big playoff. He wasn't all that impressive for Anaheim in the 2003 playoffs.

This year was a wonderful bounce back year for Kariya. It's great to see, because he's one of the most tantalizingly talented players in the game, and a treat to watch. He needs to sustain it, though.

International play doesn't mean anything to the HHOF voters. They've proven that time after time in recent decades. If it did, Sergei Makarov would have gotten in on the first ballot.

Injuries and development time are all part of the game, and thus part of the HHOF standards. Based on stats alone, if Neely's in, Kariya should get in as well. If we're going to give creedence to arguments like "oh, he was injured, that's why he could't do X," then doesn't the argument for Lemieux being as good as Gretzky get a lot better as well? Same goes for Lindros. Should we judge his career on what he could have done, rather than what his did do because he prime was ruined by concussions?

As for the Suter hit, I think it definitely did affect his productivity. Even if he did score 100 points the next season, he wasn't the same player and wasn't as willing to go to the high traffic/danger zones. As someone mentioned, a lot more of his goals these days come from one timers from 40 feet out, and while Kariya has a great shot, he's no Brett Hull. If we're going to apply "what he could have done" rule, then I'd say Kariya has an even better 98-99 season.

And for the record, Makarov SHOULD have been a first ballot hall of famer. He was unbelievable in his prime. IT's the HOCKEY Hall of Fame, not the NHL Hall of Fame.

 

[CRUNK JUICE]

He only scored 50 goals once. He certainly had the talent to do it many times, but he stopped paying the price when he started getting those big, short-term contracts. You're only going to score so much taking 40 foot slappers.

Frankly, for most of his career he's been little more than a smaller version of Stephane Richer; float around, skate up the wing for a long slapshot, repeat. He really only had two seasons at superstar level, and he's been living off that rep ever since.

Kariya on a bad day is still better than Stephane Richer on his best. OK, that's hyperbole, but Kariya is ten times the player Richer was.

 

[The Kingslayer]

If Kariya is in then Forsbergs a shoe in right?

 

[mmbt]

Kariya on a bad day is still better than Stephane Richer on his best. OK, that's hyperbole, but Kariya is ten times the player Richer was.

I don't know about that. Richer was marvelously talented, but flaky, but at least he came up big in several playoffs. Kariya, not so much; he pretty much got shut down for four straight rounds in '03.

Kariya's best couple of seasons are better, but when you compare their typical seasons, the two players are pretty similar. And it takes more than 2-3 great seasons to make the HOF.

 

[MojoJojo]

This is the problem with Neeley in the HOF. Now every player without much hardware but a ppg and 800 points can make the argument that they should be in too.

 

[charlio lemieux*]

You guys fail to see the big picture. There are two main reasons Neely's below a point-per-game for his career: he started in the league at age 18, and he was robbed of his prime years by injury. The guy never had a prime, yet he was still a four-time second team all-star.

Reality is that Mark Messier is the only player in the last 30 years who has combined goal scoring and physical play like Cam Neely. Neely's one of the defining players of his generation. Scouts will spend the next two decades looking for "the next Cam Neely." Sadly, they'll never find one.

Neely was a dominant force in the playoffs. Fourth all-time in post-season goals per game. A winner through and through, he elevated his play when it mattered most, the playoffs. Watch him play in the 1991 playoffs, and you'll see what I mean.

And the Neely we saw in the 1991 playoffs? That was what the hockey world would have seen for the next three to five years: an unstoppable force who could obliterate an opponent with his size, physical play and goal scoring ability. 70 goals per season would have been the norm. (And if you don't believe me, remember, he scored 50 goals in 49 games in 1993-94, playing on one leg).

As for Kariya, he's definitely not getting in at this point in his career. MS is right when he says that the Suter hit didn't have the impact that some think it did. Kariya scored over 100 points the following year. He was a second team all-star in 2002-03 (the year the Ducks advanced to the Stanley Cup final) and I believe he was also an all-star team selection in 1999-2000. (Although he didn't really play that well that year, despite his impressive numbers). He's never had that career-defining, legacy-building playoff.

He needs several seasons of top-end play to get in. Another all-star selection or two, a big playoff. He wasn't all that impressive for Anaheim in the 2003 playoffs.

This year was a wonderful bounce back year for Kariya. It's great to see, because he's one of the most tantalizingly talented players in the game, and a treat to watch. He needs to sustain it, though.

International play doesn't mean anything to the HHOF voters. They've proven that time after time in recent decades. If it did, Sergei Makarov would have gotten in on the first ballot.

I really like Cam Neely, but to say only Messier has combined goal scoring and physical play in a similar style in the last 30 years? Come on.

Keith Tkachuk, Brendan Shanahan and Gary Roberts are all members of the 50/200 club. That's 50 goals and 200 PIM in the same season. A club that neither Cam Neely nor Mark Messier made it into.

 

[God Bless Canada]

This is the problem with Neeley in the HOF. Now every player without much hardware but a ppg and 800 points can make the argument that they should be in too.

You people just don't get it. The HHOF is not just about stats. Look at how Neely PLAYED. At his peak, he was unstoppable. Even when he was playing on one leg, he was unstoppable. Neely's fourth all-time in playoff goals per game. (And as anyone who knows anything about the game, or any sport will tell you, the playoffs are what counts most). Not to say that there players who didn't deliver in the playoffs who don't belong in the HHOF (Dionne, Gartner, cough, cough), but playoffs are what counts. The difference between Lindros and Neely? Neely delivered in the post-season. If Neely had Lindros' playoff portfolio, Neely wouldn't be in the HHOF.

And Stephane Richer isn't in Kariya's class. Richer was a wonderfully gifted player, but very, very inconsistent. Kariya's had several seasons when he was viewed as one of the top 10 players in the game. Richer was never held in that regard.

 

[God Bless Canada]

I really like Cam Neely, but to say only Messier has combined goal scoring and physical play in a similar style in the last 30 years? Come on.

Keith Tkachuk, Brendan Shanahan and Gary Roberts are all members of the 50/200 club. That's 50 goals and 200 PIM in the same season. A club that neither Cam Neely nor Mark Messier made it into.

Physical play goes way beyond penalty minutes. You can't just measure a player's physical acumen on statistics. You need to look at how he actually played the game. Neely threw heavy, punishing hits with regular aplomb. He owned the battles in the corners. He owned the front of the net. Tkachuk, Roberts, Shanahan and Kevin Stevens (also a member of the 50/200 club) were never the physical forces that Neely were. And in the case of Tkachuk, he often wilted when the games were of the highest importance.

 

[CRUNK JUICE]

If Kariya is in then Forsbergs a shoe in right?

Without question, IMO. First ballot if he retired tomorrow.

 

[charlio lemieux*]

Physical play goes way beyond penalty minutes. You can't just measure a player's physical acumen on statistics. You need to look at how he actually played the game. Neely threw heavy, punishing hits with regular aplomb. He owned the battles in the corners. He owned the front of the net. Tkachuk, Roberts, Shanahan and Kevin Stevens (also a member of the 50/200 club) were never the physical forces that Neely were. And in the case of Tkachuk, he often wilted when the games were of the highest importance.

LMFAO
Roberts, Tkachuk and Shanahan are not as physical as Neely? How much more physical do they have to be? You obviously haven't seen much of these guys play.

I like Neely, but try to be realistic.

 

[Randall Graves*]

You guys fail to see the big picture. There are two main reasons Neely's below a point-per-game for his career: he started in the league at age 18, and he was robbed of his prime years by injury. The guy never had a prime, yet he was still a four-time second team all-star.

Reality is that Mark Messier is the only player in the last 30 years who has combined goal scoring and physical play like Cam Neely. Neely's one of the defining players of his generation. Scouts will spend the next two decades looking for "the next Cam Neely." Sadly, they'll never find one.

Neely was a dominant force in the playoffs. Fourth all-time in post-season goals per game. A winner through and through, he elevated his play when it mattered most, the playoffs. Watch him play in the 1991 playoffs, and you'll see what I mean.

And the Neely we saw in the 1991 playoffs? That was what the hockey world would have seen for the next three to five years: an unstoppable force who could obliterate an opponent with his size, physical play and goal scoring ability. 70 goals per season would have been the norm. (And if you don't believe me, remember, he scored 50 goals in 49 games in 1993-94, playing on one leg).

As for Kariya, he's definitely not getting in at this point in his career. MS is right when he says that the Suter hit didn't have the impact that some think it did. Kariya scored over 100 points the following year. He was a second team all-star in 2002-03 (the year the Ducks advanced to the Stanley Cup final) and I believe he was also an all-star team selection in 1999-2000. (Although he didn't really play that well that year, despite his impressive numbers). He's never had that career-defining, legacy-building playoff.

He needs several seasons of top-end play to get in. Another all-star selection or two, a big playoff. He wasn't all that impressive for Anaheim in the 2003 playoffs.

This year was a wonderful bounce back year for Kariya. It's great to see, because he's one of the most tantalizingly talented players in the game, and a treat to watch. He needs to sustain it, though.

International play doesn't mean anything to the HHOF voters. They've proven that time after time in recent decades. If it did, Sergei Makarov would have gotten in on the first ballot.

Yeah but Kariya was a different player after the hit. He was mostly perimeter oriented whereas before the hit he wasn't afraid to go near the net. Also remember other than Selanne he played with nobodies until Sykora and Oates arrived. and even in 02-03 I didn't feel like he had a great year. He had 3 periods of 10 game goal less streaks and in the playoffs he wasn't even one of the top four or five best players.

I think he is a guy that's going to be on the edge. He's going to get to 1,000 points barring injuries.

 

[barfy2000]

The impact of the Suter hit is hugely over-rated. People seem to think he went in the toilet after that, which just isn't the case.

In 1998-99, the first season after the injury, he scored 101 points, finished 3rd in league scoring, and was a first-team All-star. In 1999-00, he recorded 42 goals and 86 points to finish 4th in league scoring (and if he hadn't missed 8 games his PPG would have had him neck-and-neck with Jagr for the Art Ross), and was a 2nd-team All-star.

Kariya's production didn't really drop until the third and fourth seasons after being injured, which doesn't really correlate very well. He was way better than 'good' his first few seasons afterward.

__________

As for the HHOF, if he gets to 1000 points playing mainly in the dead-puck era (and with a lost season) he'll stand a strong chance. His bounce-back year this year was huge, and if he can maintain it for another few years his odds will be good. Having a big playoffs along the way will clinch it.

5 post-season All-star berths, 3 times top-5 in scoring, and two Lady Byngs is a nice resume. Certainly better than a lot of guys in there. From 1995-2000 he was pretty clearly a top-5 forward in the game.

I think you underestimate the effect that the hit did have on him. While he may have put up impressive point totals and all star teams post-Suter, he wasn't the same Paul Kariya. Before the Nagano games, people in Canada were so anxious for Kariya to captain their team to glory. For a period of a few years he was easily a top 5 forward, and arguably a top 5 player in the entire world and seemed poised for greatness.

Canadians and many hockey followers saw Paul as the next great Canadian player along with Lindros, taking the reigns of Lemieux and Gretzky who succeeded Howe and Orr, in a sort of passing of the torch. After his hit, he wasn't the same player. He scarcely went into high traffic areas and yet was still able to rack up tremendous point totals due to his impressive skill set and amazing hockey sense.

He may have had high point totals, but he was ready to take the step and become the best player in the world.

Not to say that there players who didn't deliver in the playoffs who don't belong in the HHOF (Dionne, Gartner, cough, cough)

Marcel Dionne doesn't belong in the HHOF?

 

[arrbez]

If Kariya is in then Forsbergs a shoe in right?

I don't think Forsberg needs Kariya to open the door for him.


Cam Neely's induction should warrant the inclusion of superstars with injury-shortened careers like Forsberg and Lindros


Unless Kariya really shows me something in the playoffs over the next couple years, I wouldn't vote him in.

 

[God Bless Canada]

I think you underestimate the effect that the hit did have on him. While he may have put up impressive point totals and all star teams post-Suter, he wasn't the same Paul Kariya. Before the Nagano games, people in Canada were so anxious for Kariya to captain their team to glory. For a period of a few years he was easily a top 5 forward, and arguably a top 5 player in the entire world and seemed poised for greatness.

Canadians and many hockey followers saw Paul as the next great Canadian player along with Lindros, taking the reigns of Lemieux and Gretzky who succeeded Howe and Orr, in a sort of passing of the torch. After his hit, he wasn't the same player. He scarcely went into high traffic areas and yet was still able to rack up tremendous point totals due to his impressive skill set and amazing hockey sense.

He may have had high point totals, but he was ready to take the step and become the best player in the world.



Marcel Dionne doesn't belong in the HHOF?

I didn't say that he didn't belong. I said that failing to deliver in the playoffs shouldn't outright disqualify a player's HHOF chances. Dionne belongs in the HHOF. He (and Gartner) did enough in the regular season to compensate for their post-season shortcomings. (And it's not just a Stanley Cup thing. It's reflective of their inability to elevate their play in the playoffs).

 

[Bluesfan1981]

So if Neely's in (and I'm not saying he should be in, but he is), tell me why he should get in and Kariya shouldn't?

It's not all about stats, who would you rather have on your team? I think Neely was easily a better player. In addition to scoring ability, Neely was a physical player who was tough as hell, while Kariya is a bit soft. Kariya has HoF talent, and with a few more good seasons he should get in.