Player Discussion: Patrik Laine

[Ducky10]

Yup, it's only an assumption and against what we did see.

In fact Scheifele produced much more (and their line produced 70% more goals / 60) with 18-year-old Laine than with career-season-Wheeler.

Yet the XFG% for 27-55-29 was lower.

 

[Farmboy Patty]

They produced more goals but we lost more games.

This is like a question from a critical thinking test the team did not lose because Laine and Scheif where scoring at a terrific rate

 

[Daximus]

This is like a question from a critical thinking test the team did not lose because Laine and Scheif where scoring at a terrific rate

They lost because they had no depth and Helle was young and inexperienced. But at the same time it creates more depth to spread talent out. I'm not seeing much from Little so far. I don't think it's long before Rosie passes him personally. Laine just has to be patient and play it out. Scheif and Wheels have to slow down their game to play with Laine and I don't think they personally love doing that. I know there is an entire country chomping at the bit to see their darling boy pop 50 but there is plenty of time for it. We will win either way.

 

[Daximus]

We should just play Schiefele with Little. It's the only way to know!

Honestly that might help a lot. You should be trying to prop up the weaker players while spreading talent out. But with our lack of C depth I can't see Little being shifted to the wing yet.

 

[DashingDane]

I'm a big advocate for splitting up Laine and Ehlers in general and would not be excited to see ELL again but I think everyone is making them sound worse than they actually were... I consider Connor their closest comparable in both age and position. Both Laine and Ehlers put up more pts with less ATOI in an arguably worse situation (not playing with Wheels and Scheif). I should mention that Connor did play 6 games fewer.

I think the team is better off spitting up ELL and I hope they do but it is in no way a disaster if they don't imo. My biggest issue is the big difference in time on ice between the two top lines. The 2nd line saw their toi regress last season which I don't understand. That is bound to create internal team conflict if it continues.

 

[Halberdier]

ESL was deadly in the O zone. It was weak defensively though. I think it would be better now though. All 3 are better defensively than they were then.

The Little criticism here has become ridiculously overblown but Maurice has plenty of other permutations he could try. TC is the time to look at them. I think that Connor - Little - Wheeler could be very good.

I agree about ESL, but as said, Laine was young rookie and Ehlers was not a seasoned veteran either. Also I didn't think ESL was the optimal line at all. For optimal talent spread Perreault-Scheifele-Laine or even Copp-Scheifele-Laine would do.

On the other hand, Ehlers - Stastny - Laine was a pretty good line defensively on playoffs, and certainly better than Connor - Scheifele - Wheeler. Though I'm bit worried about Scheifele's defense right now given how often he cheated last season with Wheeler to generate more offence. I know it's worth nothing, but Scheifele's defensive attitude against Oilers in previous pre-season game (I know, I know) was just plain horrible.

Most of the "Little criticism" is not criticism about Little, but about keeping Laine, Little and Ehlers together. It's criticism about forcing square brick into a round hole. Hasn't been really successful so far, but PoMo keeps pushing it nevertheless. (OK, it was PLL already last pre-season game, and that already looked just a little bit better when Little and Laine were chasing pucks together and Perreault was playing safe).

 

[Halberdier]

If Laine does play with Scheif I’d prefer Connor or Perreault over Ehlers or even just a lot Laine to the left side with Wheeler opposite. Point is, I think Ehlers and Laine struggle together. But at the same time they are a year older and Laine is quicker so who knows.

I agree that Connor or Perreault might be better match for Laine than Ehlers. Not sure about Wheeler, since somehow they didn't play too well together on 16-17, though that is 2 years ago. But more importantly, if you put 3 of your best forwards together, that leaves 2nd line considerably weaker (though certainly not weak given three of Connor, Ehlers, Perreault and Little were there anyway).

I think the best way to spread the talent was to use Scheif-Laine, Little-Wheeler as a starting point. Also as much I would love to see Laine as a LW, there is acute lack of TOP-6 RW's for the Jets, Wheeler being the only one accustomed to that spot. Ehlers has played there, but not for some time.

With either Stastny or even Copp Ehlers & Laine duo was not really struggling that made me wonder that after all they can play pretty good hockey together. Before seeing that, I thought only Scheifele can make Laine and Ehlers playing together effectively.

 

[Halberdier]

I just watched the first period of Oilers game, and I was really disappointed about Laine. I was told he is not motivated at all and is weak, but in the actual game he did show no lack of motivation, played very well and had about 2/3 or more of all those scoring chances by the Jets. Couldn't score though. Had also one of rare body hits and was really involved.

Somehow PLL was really disconnected, but at least Laine and Little tried to do something together. Funny thing was that Perreault barely touched the puck until late period, and it was Laine together with Little making that chase for the puck. I was for sure waiting that to be the opposite.

Only non-motivated players I did spot were Scheifele in regards of defending (he was very eager on attacking and looked great otherwise) and once also Myers didn't want to chase a guy that was going for a breakaway. Otherwise I was surprised about how good motivation most players had for a meaningless pre-season game.

 

[Halberdier]

Yet the XFG% for 27-55-29 was lower.

Means almost nothing as Laine's SH% is next level in comparison to Wheeler. xG models (most of them AFAIK) do not incorporate shot quality or SH% (meaning quality of shot, not quality of scoring change, sometimes referred to quality of shot for some odd reason). Wheeler is a great player, but not very efficient goal scorer, meaning he will need much more "expected goals" to actually score a real goal compared to Laine.

Also, I don't think ESL is optimal, while their off-ice bromance is so fun to watch. I would rather try Con-SL, PSL or even Cop-SL, last one spreading talent really nicely and giving another defensive conscience for Scheifele.

 

[Jack722]

Yet the XFG% for 27-55-29 was lower.

I have a question about this maybe someone can explain here.

Can XG% actually be hurt by finishing talent? Or in other words, how does actually putting the puck in the net affect XG%?

For example let's say a team gets three quick shots on net in a row. Now, obviously neither of the first two went in the net, or the second two would not have been produced. But won't all three be counted as separate XG events and therefore skew the XG% in favour of the shooting team? And in that case, could one actual goal be worth less in terms of XG% than three high % shots on net?

 

[Jack722]

Most of the "Little criticism" is not criticism about Little, but about keeping Laine, Little and Ehlers together. It's criticism about forcing square brick into a round hole. Hasn't been really successful so far, but PoMo keeps pushing it nevertheless. (OK, it was PLL already last pre-season game, and that already looked just a little bit better when Little and Laine were chasing pucks together and Perreault was playing safe).

It also finished as Laine - Scheif - Wheeler in that game.

I agree with the notion (Daximus mentioned) of spreading the talent out. But I don't think Laine is the one to help spread it out. I think a shooter like that you just maximize the TOI and put him with the best play drivers and watch the goals go in. I also don't think being in such a situation will somehow hurt his development.

IMO the better way to spread the talent would be moving play drivers and playmakers up and down the line-up. That includes Scheif, Wheeler, Ehlers, Perreault.

However, I doubt very, very much that we see Scheif and Wheeler split up this season.

 

[MrBoJangelz71]

For what its worth, I think Laine coming in lighter this season will have him more engaged in the play, drive the play more, and start doing the things we need him to do without having him paired with our best center.

Give em a fish he eats for the day, teach him how to fish he eats for life.

Laine needs to drive a line, he is that good and that capable.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I agree about ESL, but as said, Laine was young rookie and Ehlers was not a seasoned veteran either. Also I didn't think ESL was the optimal line at all. For optimal talent spread Perreault-Scheifele-Laine or even Copp-Scheifele-Laine would do.

On the other hand, Ehlers - Stastny - Laine was a pretty good line defensively on playoffs, and certainly better than Connor - Scheifele - Wheeler. Though I'm bit worried about Scheifele's defense right now given how often he cheated last season with Wheeler to generate more offence. I know it's worth nothing, but Scheifele's defensive attitude against Oilers in previous pre-season game (I know, I know) was just plain horrible.

Most of the "Little criticism" is not criticism about Little, but about keeping Laine, Little and Ehlers together. It's criticism about forcing square brick into a round hole. Hasn't been really successful so far, but PoMo keeps pushing it nevertheless. (OK, it was PLL already last pre-season game, and that already looked just a little bit better when Little and Laine were chasing pucks together and Perreault was playing safe).

Without seeing more combinations tried and without being able to analyze some things too deeply, it is difficult to know if some of my suspicions are correct or not. I have suspicions that neither Little nor Laine are good matches for Ehlers. He is a creative genius with the puck. Scheifele can play with him. I suspect that both Little and Laine are better with a more predictable line-mate. Just my guess, but I would really like to see Ehlers and Connor swapped - and give it long enough to be meaningful. If I'm right, both lines get better. If not, I can't see any harm coming from the attempt.

 

[Halberdier]

I have a question about this maybe someone can explain here.

Can XG% actually be hurt by finishing talent? Or in other words, how does actually putting the puck in the net affect XG%?

For example let's say a team gets three quick shots on net in a row. Now, obviously neither of the first two went in the net, or the second two would not have been produced. But won't all three be counted as separate XG events and therefore skew the XG% in favour of the shooting team? And in that case, could one actual goal be worth less in terms of XG% than three high % shots on net?

Yes, definitely it can. The same way Corsi is hurt by finishing talent. Every time you score, you lose opportunity for rebound or to continue attack so "Corsi possession" is lost.

You want to get better Corsi? Just start shooting at the walls, retrieve the puck, rinse and repeat, and your Corsi will be awesome. It's just not the goal for hockey ;-)

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I just watched the first period of Oilers game, and I was really disappointed about Laine. I was told he is not motivated at all and is weak, but in the actual game he did show no lack of motivation, played very well and had about 2/3 or more of all those scoring changes by the Jets. Couldn't score though. Had also one of rare body hits and was really involved.

Somehow PLL was really disconnected, but at least Laine and Little tried to do something together. Funny thing was that Perreault barely touched the puck until late period, and it was Laine together with Little making that chase for the puck. I was for sure waiting that to be the opposite.

Only non-motivated players I did spot were Scheifele in regards of defending (he was very eager on attacking and looked great otherwise) and once also Myers didn't want to chase a guy that was going for a breakaway. Otherwise I was surprised about how good motivation most players had for a meaningless pre-season game.

I liked Laine much better in that game. He was much nearer to 'ready'. Shot was still not quite there, so no goals. Not worried though, it will come.

 

[Ducky10]

Means almost nothing as Laine's SH% is next level in comparison to Wheeler. xG models (most of them AFAIK) do not incorporate shot quality or SH% (meaning quality of shot, not quality of scoring change, sometimes referred to quality of shot for some odd reason). Wheeler is a great player, but not very efficient goal scorer, meaning he will need much more "expected goals" to actually score a real goal compared to Laine.

Also, I don't think ESL is optimal, while their off-ice bromance is so fun to watch. I would rather try Con-SL, PSL or even Cop-SL, last one spreading talent really nicely and giving another defensive conscience for Scheifele.

Huh? That's exactly what they incorporate.

 

[1stDan]

They lost because they had no depth and Helle was young and inexperienced. But at the same time it creates more depth to spread talent out. I'm not seeing much from Little so far. I don't think it's long before Rosie passes him personally. Laine just has to be patient and play it out. Scheif and Wheels have to slow down their game to play with Laine and I don't think they personally love doing that. I know there is an entire country chomping at the bit to see their darling boy pop 50 but there is plenty of time for it. We will win either way.

I agree to an extent. But I think it Wheels more so than Scheif that has issues playing a slower game.

 

[Halberdier]

It also finished as Laine - Scheif - Wheeler in that game.

Thanks for the head up. Yup, they played three shifts together, when Jets had the lead. One nice setup by Wheeler which I initially thought hit the post after shot by Laine, but I guess Koskinen got a piece of that.

I checked all the shifts by Laine, most by Vesalainen and randomly about half or more of the rest. Somehow I liked how Reichel Jr. played. Maybe he won't be a NHLer ever, but definitely a good player.

 

[Daximus]

I agree to an extent. But I think it Wheels more so than Scheif that has issues playing a slower game.

Wheels game has always been built around his speed. But at the same time around his ability to cycle. Which Scheif is just as good at. Wheels can play a slow game but it needs to be a game built around the perimeter biding time until a hole opens up.

 

[Halberdier]

Huh? That's exactly what they incorporate.

Depends on the model. If you refer to Corsica xGoals model, they explain that quite nicely here:

Shot Quality And Expected Goals: Part I | Corsica

eg.
"
The model is similar in nature to that of @DTMAboutHeart,3 with some important distinctions. The most important difference is his inclusion of regressed shooting talent. I chose to exclude shooter talent not because it isn’t an important factor, but rather because I fear players may unfairly benefit or suffer from their linemates’ aptitude. Here’s what my model does account for:

• Shot type (Wrist shot, slap shot, deflection, etc.)
• Shot distance (Adjusted4 distance from net)
• Shot angle (Angle in absolute degrees from the central line normal to the goal line)
• Rebounds (Boolean – Whether or not the shot was a rebound)
• Rush shots (Boolean – Whether or not the shot was a rush shot)
• Strength state (Boolean – Whether or not the shot was taken on the powerplay)5

Each of the six shot types6 provided by the NHL forms its own category, and these are further subsetted by rebound and non-rebound."

So like I explained, they have completely different meaning for "shot quality". They omit shooter talent from shot quality (or SH% in other words), but just look about shot types, distances, shot angles, whether it's a rebound or rush shot and whether it's powerplay or not. (though on 5-on-5 xG that last one obviously doesn't matter).

That's the reason why Laine has very low "Shot Quality WAR" (-0.87 compared to whopping 5.88 of McDavid) in WAR while his "Shooting WAR" is of the charts 9.29 (McDavid 1.26). "Shot Quality" has nothing to do with shot quality, but quality of the shooting chance / scoring chance.

But some models really do include SH% on xGoals, but even then it's hard to adjust those stats for newcomers like Laine that have only relatively short history playing at NHL.

 

[jepjepjoo]

Huh? That's exactly what they incorporate.

I think he means that the model assumes that Thornburn is as likely as Laine to score from the same spot.

Edit. Late...

 

[Ducky10]

I think he means that the model assumes that Thornburn is as likely as Laine to score from the same spot.

Edit. Late...

Read what you just wrote and tell me what could possibly be wrong with it.

Yes it does not incorporate talent, it doesn't really need to.

 

[Halberdier]

Read what you just wrote and tell me what could possibly be wrong with it.

I already answered about Corsica xGoals model. They explicitly state they omit shooting talent from xGoals so literally Thorburn would get exactly the same xGoals than Laine had they both exactly the same number of shots from the exact same spots, using the same shot type (slapper, wrister etc.), same amount of rebounds etc. etc

Yet rel. xGF% was not bad for those lines with Laine & Fefe, on the contrary. But for sure their rel. real GF% is more impressive.

 

[Daximus]

I already answered about Corsica xGoals model. They explicitly state they omit shooting talent from xGoals so literally Thorburn would get exactly the same xGoals than Laine had they both exactly the same number of shots from the exact same spots, using the same shot type (slapper, wrister etc.), same amount of rebounds etc. etc

Yet rel. xGF% was not bad for those lines with Laine & Fefe, on the contrary. But for sure their rel. real GF% is more impressive.

But the fact is Thorburn won't get the same shots so talent is included.

 

[Saidin]

I wish they'd try...

Laine-Shiefs-Wheels
Ehls-Lits-Perrault
Connor-Petan-Roslo
Copp-Lowry-Tanev