Patrik Laine over/under 55 goals

[PhilJets]

I will be happy with 50 goals

He is playing more now ...
If it keeps up (ice time) he has a good chance.

Knowing Maurice 1 bad period of Laine he will cut his ice time

45 to 55 i think where he will end up.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Remember like a week ago when everyone was saying how he was never really that good and that they knew it all along. Good times.

It's almost as good as people expecting him to score 60-70 goals this season.

 

[LaMasquerade]

I voted over 55.. Last year he had 11 goals after 22 games, this year 19. Last year he ended with 44, so at least it should be possible. He has had already a slump and a hot streak (continuing..?) this year, so simply math from 1/4 season with, say, 18 goals to factor out the 5 goal oddity, gives you 72, and 72 > 55.

 

[Mulletman]

holy people

I understand he's on a hot streak, but you're asking him to do what no one since Stamkos has done, hit at least 55 goals, let alone 50, which only OV has been able to do since 2012, 2012!

the recency bias on this site is insane

Well Laine just scored 5 goals in a game and nobody had done that since 2011...

But in all seriousness the biggest obsticle for Laine will be icetime. Since NHL started to track icetime in 1997-98 Jonathan Cheechoo is the only one to score over 55 goals while playing under 20 minutes: NHL.com - Stats And even Cheechoo played 19 minutes and 57 seconds per game that season. And the only other player to score 50 goals and play less than 20 minutes per game is Milan Hejduk. Laine is still struggling to get to 17 minutes per game this season...

 

[FinProspects]

I think snipers tend to peak quite early, and Laine is entering that peak right now. In order to hit 50 he needs 31 goals in remaining 60 games. His career average, excluding this season, is about that. So if he stays healthy, 50 goals should be a lock.

If we look at the gpg average per season.
16-17 0,49
17-18 0,53
18-19 0,86

Given the potential he has, I think he could score the remaining 60 games with 0,6gpg, which would give him exactly 55 goals, which I think is quite spot on.

 

[Critical13]

holy people

I understand he's on a hot streak, but you're asking him to do what no one since Stamkos has done, hit at least 55 goals, let alone 50, which only OV has been able to do since 2012, 2012!

the recency bias on this site is insane

When he goes 5 games with no goals this site will be burying 6 feet under without a breathing tube, just the way she goes around here.

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

He's nearly a goal per game pace.

 

[Varan]

When he goes 5 games with no goals this site will be burying 6 feet under without a breathing tube, just the way she goes around here.

exactly! i want you people to keep this same “55-60 goal” energy when he goes on a cold streak

 

[Patrik Barkov]

52

 

[dangomon]

I feel the safe pick is under, but when this kid catches fire (see: the last few games) he's incredible. Wouldn't be shocked with 60, but at the same time wouldn't be shocked to see him go cold for a few weeks slowing his pace. Incredibly impressed with his ability to bounce back though, good on him!

 

[Pi]

Definitely under. Have people learned nothing from his season so far? He's not a consistent guy, not yet at least.

He's got what 3 hattricks, one of them being a legendary 5 goal game?

5+3+3. That's 11 of his 19 goals in 3 games and 8 goals in the other 19 games which is a 34 goal pace. Sprinkle in a few more hot games and you've got another 10-15 or so goals?

I'd say he finishes around ~45-50 goals which IMO should be more than enough to win the Rocket.

 

[moose3322]

Definitely under. Have people learned nothing from his season so far? He's not a consistent guy, not yet at least.

He's got what 3 hattricks, one of them being a legendary 5 goal game?

5+3+3. That's 11 of his 19 goals in 3 games and 8 goals in the other 19 games which is a 34 goal pace. Sprinkle in a few more hot games and you've got another 10-15 or so goals?

I'd say he finishes around ~45-50 goals which IMO should be more than enough to win the Rocket.

The logic in this doesn’t seem to work. He currently has 19 goals in 22 games. 60 games left.
1. You eliminated all his best games- 3 of his 22 games are not counted (1/4 of the season). So his ‘true’ sustainable ability is now a 34 goal pace.
2. You assume he will have hot streaks in his 60 games left (3/4 of the season left)- so I assume you will want to ‘not count’ his best 9 games of those left (to stay consistent with the ratio). Let’s be very conservative and say in his best 9 games of the remainder of the season, he scores 16 goals. He is at 35 goals then, using current plus expected hot streak goals.
3. This leaves 51 other games to finish off the year. At his 34 goal pace, that is 21 goals.

Add them up, that is about 56 goals, going by your criteria of balancing out his hot streaks.


Not the best calculation, but I do expect Laine will get somewhere between 50-55 goals, maybe even 60 if he gets lucky and has multiple more hot streaks. He is on pace for over 70 goals after all, even including his early cold streak

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

You don't get to eliminate his hot streaks and count his cold streaks when you are predicting the future. Yes he is not going to score at the same rate as he has been for the last 10 games, but he is also not going to score at the terrible rate he started the season at. He will likely be somewhere in the middle of that. He should be able to hit 50 if he stays healthy, his line gets a bit more ice time and the PP stays as hot as it is, but you just never really know. 55-60 is possible if everything breaks right for him but it is unlikely.

 

[RageQuit77]

If we start remove hot streaks, then we need remove also cold streaks. If we start remove high score games, then we need remove also zero-goal games. If we apply to these to one player, then we must apply to all. Thus we can conclude that:

1. Laine's hot streak doesn't exist, but neither does his cold streaks.
2. Matthews hot start doesn't exist, because we need remove all kind streaks.

I call BS!

If you can use GPG and PPG paces for one player, sure you can use them to another too.

45-50G for Patty. Likely. I predicted off-year for him with around 32G, but it seems I am going to be horribly wrong, but happy if going to be wrong.

 

[bobholly39]

His hot streaks are insane

I voted below 55 but scoring over 70 isnt impossible if he goes on a long enough hot streak

 

[kuzy92]

Over, already best goal scorer on this planet.

Oh please.. What has he done to deserve such a crown??

 

[Falco Lombardi]

Well he's only got 1 more game against us so under.

 

[Keeptdos]

It's all in Paul Maurices hands. If he utilizes Laine correctly, over 60 goals. Could go way over in best conditions (in 1st line with Connor and Scheifele, full 2 min PP) but we don't get to see that unfortunately.

Let's say 63 this season if healthy and not further restricted by mgmt...just keep this line together and he can go over 60.

If he gets even 50 playing second line and 17 mins per game that itself is an achievement. Not many teams have that kind of luxury.

 

[Plural]

Oh please.. What has he done to deserve such a crown??

I'd still give that to OV but Laine has scored goals better than Ovie since coming in to the league. It's at least debatable.

 

[kuzy92]

What does "scores goals better" mean?

 

[Plural]

What does "scores goals better" mean?

I can't believe I wrote that. "Me know english good"

I meant that Laine has 99 goals since entering the league which puts him tied with OV. Laine also has less games played which means his GPG is better.

But Ovechkin is the reigning Rocket winner who also just scored 15 PO goals. So I have no issues picking him. I would too. But there are some legit arguments for Laine too.

 

[Psych0dad]

If he gets even 50 playing second line and 17 mins per game that itself is an achievement. Not many teams have that kind of luxury.

No team in history has had that kind of luxury perhaps.

 

[psycat]

Voting under for anybody, including Ovechkin, till I see it happen again.

 

[Psych0dad]

I predicted off-year for him with around 32G, but it seems I am going to be horribly wrong, but happy if going to be wrong.

Did you suffer a stroke when predicting that?

Or were you thinking ELL for 82 straight? Injury?

Double your prediction sounds plausible right now.

 

[RageQuit77]

Did you suffer a stroke when predicting that?

Or were you thinking ELL for 82 straight? Injury?

Double your prediction sounds plausible right now.

I was suffering from depression. You kind a see things darker than they really are, you know.