Post-Game Talk: Patrick Russell needs to recalibrate his controller

[Tyrolean]

Well, if Nurse becomes a top pairing d-man worth 8M, it's a good problem to have. This team has not had one since Souray. It just means, they will have to trade Larsson/let Russell go and look for cheaper young players and smart free agents signings for depth.

Not a Nurse fan at 8 mil. He's got the tools but not the tool set.

 

[Raab]

It's a judgement call, you make that judgement call with EVERY long term or even short term guy you sign. If the Oilers truly thought that Nurse who's shown nothing but being extremely competitive, extremely committed, and wanting to win actually would slow down or mail it in cause of an early pay day, then the Oilers management are as bad as we thought they were.

But knowing Nurse (you drafted him afterall), IMO it should have an EASY call to sign this guy long term even if it was only based on his mediocre first 1.5 years in the league. What I saw in him as a 3rd pairing, injured, underwhelming offensive skill, player in his first 1.5 years was enough for me to be sold to sign him long term to whatever the market value his NUMBERS and PERFORMANCE actually warranted back in 15-16. Which if you can IGNORE everything that's happened sinced 16-17 with his progress and actually take a look at what was a reasonable number back then it would have been in that 3.5M-4M range.

Meh it’s a difference in principle more then anything. For me I believe people should be paid for what they produce and I wouldn’t pay for future production. Same thing happens with stocks, some guys speculate, some guys are value investors. Really depends on the person doing the negotiating. If Nurse didn’t want the long term deal, that tells me a lot about his character. Good on him for continuing his development.

 

[TheNumber4]

Okay... Then don't tell me you know anything either. Neither of us knows. Stop pretending you know.

This argument. We don't know so we can't talk about it, and there's no way that we'll ever be able to figure out the complex minds of NHL players, cmon now. 80% of discussion would shut down on these boards if we could talk about only 100% known things. You take information in, you take context, you can make educated guesses as to what may happen. Some educated guesses are better than others.

For example, we could have all predicted that Mathews and Marner would sign at 10M+ despite not being able to read their minds. In this example, you take what Top 4 defenceman are getting paid who don't bring much offense, you take the fact that he played 3rd pair minutes while being injured, while being very mediocre offensively. It's EASY to predict a salary range that a player would agree to. That range was a reasonable number that others on this very board, that follow the team, that understand in general what types of players are worth what types of contracts and you can talk about it, and you can even make predictions that will be pretty close.

 

[TheNumber4]

Meh it’s a difference in principle more then anything. For me I believe people should be paid for what they produce and I wouldn’t pay for future production. Same thing happens with stocks, some guys speculate, some guys are value investors. Really depends on the person doing the negotiating. If Nurse didn’t want the long term deal, that tells me a lot about his character. Good on him for continuing his development.

Nearly every RFA signing with term flies in the face of this principle. And for good reason, you don't get players like Drai locked up for 8.5M per year long term that you can build and plan your team around if contracts were only paid as you go and as earned. Potential is taken into account, its just how the real world works.

 

[replacement]

This argument. We don't know so we can't talk about it, and there's no way that we'll ever be able to figure out the complex minds of NHL players, cmon now. 80% of discussion would shut down on these boards if we could talk about only 100% known things. You take information in, you take context, you can make educated guesses as to what may happen. Some educated guesses are better than others.

For example, we could have all predicted that Mathews and Marner would sign at 10M+ despite not being able to read their minds. In this example, you take what Top 4 defenceman are getting paid who don't bring much offense, you take the fact that he played 3rd pair minutes while being injured, while being very mediocre offensively. It's EASY to predict a salary range that a player would agree to. That range was a reasonable number that others on this very board, that follow the team, that understand in general what types of players are worth what types of contracts and you can talk about it, and you can even make predictions that will be pretty close.

You can talk about whatever you want, I'm just saying if you're going to take the position that everybody else is making assumptions, you have to acknowledge you are also making total assumptions about what Nurse and his agent would or wouldn't do. Instead you say things like:

"I am 100% certain with how Nurse and how he was playing, how he was perceived at that time would have signed a 48 Million Dollar Contract."

I'm sorry man, be a little more self aware.

 

[TheNumber4]

You can talk about whatever you want, I'm just saying if you're going to take the position that everybody else is making assumptions, you have to acknowledge you are also making total assumptions about what Nurse and his agent would or wouldn't do. Instead you say things like:

"I am 100% certain with how Nurse and how he was playing, how he was perceived at that time would have signed a 48 Million Dollar Contract."

I'm sorry man, be a little more self aware.

Your under the impression that being sure of something cannot exist, like it’s pretentious to be sure of things. Well I’m sure gravity exists, I’m sure a guy like Bear would sign long term right now at 4M per year, I’m sure Manning would take any any extension for the type of trajectory his NHL career is going, I’m sure Marner would have signed at Matthews numbers during the summer... see how I’m able to make these assumptions and be certain about them without having the ability to read the minds of these players and agents?

It’s been 3 years since the time frame I am talking about, 3 years since we all had a certain perspective on Nurse as a player, his situation, and his prospects or lackthereof for the future. That time is now long gone and forgotten. And you are now trying to use your perspective after seeing him having 2 really good years to tell me my assumptions are wrong or have no basis in ever being possible?

Have you spent any time revisiting old threads, seeing what was thought about his play, his salary range, seeing the doubts about how good he’d be in the future? Doubt it. But you’ll automatically say my assumption of what he would have signed for 3 years ago can’t possibly be right cause I can’t read minds.

I know what you are trying to say, fans don’t know anything, fans aren’t in the room, blah blah blah. Well here’s the thing fans aren’t stupid. People aren’t in the trade forums debating stuff like Is Marner going to get 20M on his next contract? They are debating numbers and terms that are in realistic range and Lo and behold some get it bang on, some maybe a couple hundred thousand off, or a year off whatever. But they know enough to be able to get it in the range. So again, don’t tell me I can’t predict things that may realistically happen in the NHL, it’s not that hard, and I don’t need a crystal ball.

 

[Patch101]

um no he isn't lol

Why do you say that? McDavid is fast, skilled, and strong, but that doesn't mean that there isn't other players in the league who can't skate close to that level. MacKinnon is also pretty damn quick.

 

[Raab]

Nearly every RFA signing with term flies in the face of this principle. And for good reason, you don't get players like Drai locked up for 8.5M per year long term that you can build and plan your team around if contracts were only paid as you go and as earned. Potential is taken into account, its just how the real world works.

There was no potential taken into account in the Draisaitl deal. He got paid what a 77 point player makes on a 8 year deal. Johansen has just signed a similar deal and I’m sure was used as a comparable. There’s very few RFA deals I can think of that paid guys based on potential. Only the oilers seem to do that, and it resulted in our players not competing as hard as they should. I’m looking at RNH in particular who used his brother as his trainer. If he had to work to get paid his 6M, maybe he’d have gone to one of the high profile guys like Gary Roberts and got stronger quicker.

 

[Bangers]

There was no potential taken into account in the Draisaitl deal. He got paid what a 77 point player makes on a 8 year deal. Johansen has just signed a similar deal and I’m sure was used as a comparable. There’s very few RFA deals I can think of that paid guys based on potential. Only the oilers seem to do that, and it resulted in our players not competing as hard as they should. I’m looking at RNH in particular who used his brother as his trainer. If he had to work to get paid his 6M, maybe he’d have gone to one of the high profile guys like Gary Roberts and got stronger quicker.

Hall got paid for potential and attended BioSteel.

 

[Raab]

Hall got paid for potential and attended BioSteel.

Hall had 50 points in 45 games. Hard to say he didnt earn a 6M contract.

 

[Bangers]

Hall had 50 points in 45 games. Hard to say he didnt earn a 6M contract.

On that basis, so did Nuge then. He signed his contract coming off 56 points in 80 games.

As a C (more important position). And with fewer missed games due to injury.

 

[Chef de Cuisine]

On that basis, so did Nuge then. He signed his contract coming off 56 points in 80 games.

As a C (more important position). And with fewer missed games due to injury.

>1ppg vs <0.75ppg..

 

[Bangers]

>1ppg vs <0.75ppg..

And 56 points > 50 points.

As most pro coaches in any sport will tell you, "the best ability is availability."

 

[Raab]

On that basis, so did Nuge then. He signed his contract coming off 56 points in 80 games.

As a C (more important position). And with fewer missed games due to injury.

2013 was the lockout season, Hall missed 3 games, and was over a PPG. RNH wasnt in the same stratosphere as Hall, no matter how you want to look at his deal.

 

[alphahelix]

And 56 points > 50 points.

As most pro coaches in any sport will tell you, "the best ability is availability."

Youre wrong. With a young player that you are signing long term and expecting to play hundreds of games for you, you are not paying based on whether or not they are going to be an ironman. Both parties (agent and GM) are operating on the more or less reasonable assumption that this young athlete will play the majority of the games. Do you see ironman Cogliano making 12 million? Anticipated production per game is what contracts are based on, assuming the absense of major deformities or proven chronic deterioration.

 

[Bangers]

2013 was the lockout season, Hall missed 3 games, and was over a PPG. RNH wasnt in the same stratosphere as Hall, no matter how you want to look at his deal.

Whoops. My bad. I confused the lockout season with the two previous seasons he'd missed 20 or so games.

Still, Hall attended Gary Roberts' training after his financial future was secured, so my original point that signing a big deal doesn't preclude a player from working on their game still stands.

Also, if you think a former 1st overall 1st line C coming off a 50+ point as a 20 year old doesn't net $6 mil at that time, you're letting your anti-Nuge bias cloud your judgement.

 

[Bangers]

Youre wrong. With a young player that you are signing long term and expecting to play hundreds of games for you, you are not paying based on whether or not they are going to be an ironman. Both parties (agent and GM) are operating on the more or less reasonable assumption that this young athlete will play the majority of the games. Do you see ironman Cogliano making 12 million? Anticipated production per game is what contracts are based on, assuming the absense of major deformities or proven chronic deterioration.

Sorry, what is your primary argument and how does it relate to the topic at hand?

 

[alphahelix]

Sorry, what is your primary argument and how does it relate to the topic at hand?

You said 56 points > 50 points while totally disregarding context, trying to make a point at the cost of rational discussion. So, do you have any evidence to support your initial argument or are you just content with being wrong and attempting to change the subject? Fine either way.

To weigh in, Hall made a sacrifice to sign at 6M and Nuge benefitted from the 3 amigos signing identical deals. Hall deserved every penny from day 1 and Nuge had to grow into it a bit, but the timing of the signings relative to their ELCs also played into it.

 

[Bangers]

You said 56 points > 50 points while totally disregarding context, trying to make a point at the cost of rational discussion. So, do you have any evidence to support your initial argument or are you just content with being wrong and attempting to change the subject? Fine either way.

To weigh in, Hall made a sacrifice to sign at 6M and Nuge benefitted from the 3 amigos signing identical deals. Hall deserved every penny from day 1 and Nuge had to grow into it a bit, but the timing of the signings relative to their ELCs also played into it.

1. Raab made the point that only the Oilers sign players based on potential and took an opportunity to throw a jab in at Nuge by stating that since the Oilers paid him on potential, he slacked off and made bad choices like not attending BioSteel because he'd already gotten paid.

2. I pointed out that Hall attended BioSteel after he had already gotten paid.

3. Raab pointed out that Hall had already made it. I countered that so had Nuge.

4. Another poster pointed out that Hall's numbers are better than Nuge's. I pointed out that isn't necessarily the case. I did screw up by forgetting the lockout though.

Instead of accusing me of disregarding context and making outlandish hyperbolic arguments (or maybe I've just forgotten when Cogliano has scored over 50 points) maybe read the whole discussion instead of focusing on one point in a post.

Disregarding context, indeed.

 

[Raab]

Whoops. My bad. I confused the lockout season with the two previous seasons he'd missed 20 or so games.

Still, Hall attended Gary Roberts' training after his financial future was secured, so my original point that signing a big deal doesn't preclude a player from working on their game still stands.

Also, if you think a former 1st overall 1st line C coming off a 50+ point as a 20 year old doesn't net $6 mil at that time, you're letting your anti-Nuge bias cloud your judgement.

See, your paying on his draft position, not what he’s produced. Most first overalls are worth the money. RNH wasn’t worth 6M

 

[Bangers]

See, your paying on his draft position, not what he’s produced. Most first overalls are worth the money. RNH wasn’t worth 6M

So what was he worth then at that point? He had already produced 1st line boxcars as a 20 year old.

Please don't use Johansen as a comparable, as Johansen's contract took him to one year before UFA and essentially meant that the team had to move him (although they did get Jones as a return).

The team was buying UFA years (and ensuring he would fit under the cap) more than it was overpaying for potential.

 

[Raab]

So what was he worth then at that point? He had already produced 1st line boxcars as a 20 year old.

Please don't use Johansen as a comparable, as Johansen's contract took him to one year before UFA and essentially meant that the team had to move him (although they did get Jones as a return).

The team was buying UFA years (and ensuring he would fit under the cap) more than it was overpaying for potential.

I don’t see why a 2 year, 4.5M deal wouldn’t have worked

 

[Bangers]

I don’t see why a 2 year, 4.5M deal wouldn’t have worked

And even in hindsight (where Nuge, overall, hasn't turned out as good as we thought he would), that would have been a mistake.

The year after Nuge signed his contract was the second best year of his career (after last year). After that, the Oil would have been looking to lock him up a year early, and his price tag would have probably jumped to $7 mil or more if the team wanted to buy his UFA years.

 

[94 Oil Drops]

This team has gone 125 minutes without scoring a goal... You can't win games never mind making the playoffs when you can't score once in a game! I'm furious about yesterday and I don't even want to think about what the capitals will do to us next.

 

[PaulZ]

it's a couple unlucky games in a row, this team still has the high end talent and depth to dominate games. Three of the best players in the world play for this team and as soon as they find their groove again, the league will take note. Goal tending has been on point and even team D is improving. I've said it before and I'll say it again, this team is going to dominate for most of the season and has to be considered a cup contender.

Every team goes through a rough patch, the blues last year were ready to have a fire sale half way through the year and they won the cup. Being shut out for a couple of games will give the boyz a chance to sit back and see what they were doing wrong.