Player Discussion Patrice Bergeron III

Discussion in 'Boston Bruins' started by Fenway, Feb 28, 2019.

  1. Dellstrom Pastrnasty

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    He's had some uncharacteristic giveaways and hasn't looked 100% but I'm not concerned. Pasta clearly isn't carried by his two lineys - they all do pretty equal heavy lifting in my book. Even though 37 and 63 are as good as they come, I think it's a big change to not have 88 there. They feed so much off eachother that having a revolving door there could be messing up his stride.

    I'm sure he will be fine. It's possible he's a little banged up or still adjusting - you wouldn't know it by his results but he's not the youngest player anymore. I'm never worried about his production, only that he stays healthy. A bad night for him is a great night for anyone else.
     
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  2. 13Hockey Go B's

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    because it’s almost like that was his last playoff series where he made a major difference for us

    It’s been 6 series of average To bad performances
     
  3. PB37 Mr Selke

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    Offensively, he looks off this series. Fighting the puck a little, not anticipating passes from Marchand well, not picking spots with his shot. He could have 4 goals this series with better shot selection on the PP if he was playing up to his normal ability.

    Defensively, he's still strong. No complaints there.

    Am I worried about him? Nope.
     
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  4. Trap Jesus Registered User

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    Selke winner is named next Thursday. This is Bergeron's main competition (in some playoff action):

     
  5. Memokerobi Registered User

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    Robbed of the Selke once again I see
     
  6. Bruinaura Registered User

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    I figured it'd be Couturier.

    Glad Bergeron got second over O'Reilly at least.

    Doubt Bergeron will get his fifth Selke at this point, though. Bummer since he really should already have #5. If you count all the years he had the most first place votes, he does. ;)
     
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  7. Trap Jesus Registered User

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    This puts those other years (2013, 2016 in particular) to shame. This is going to be the landmark year for snubs. Couturier didn't even have the most basic of numbers over him, let alone other candidates.
     
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  8. trenton1 Bergeron for Hart

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    Robbed again.
     
  9. Trap Jesus Registered User

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    Next year will be Stone's "due" year. If he has a solid season, it's his award. Cirelli and Danault building rep. Danault's reputation is legit at least. Kind of like Koivu all these years, I wouldn't have been mad if he snagged a Selke one of those years, he's been the actual 2nd best guy to Bergeron for years.

    It's funny how many groups of guys Bergeron has just had to put up with coming and going and "paying their dues" while Bergeron is just the same player year after year.

    When he started rounding back from his concussion, Datsyuk, Kesler and Toews were the main guys.

    Then Backes and Kopitar joined Toews in the first half of the decade.

    Then the second half of the decade was Couturier, O'Reilly, Stone.
     
  10. McGarnagle Yes.

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    Bergeron is a victim of voter fatigue. When you've won 4 Selkes, if anyone else is even in the ballpark, the voters are going to give it to the new guy who is "due". And Bergeron will collect all the 2nd place votes while sportswriters who think they're the smartest person in the room give their first place votes to whoever the hot player of the year is (Couturier, Stone, etc.).

    Bergy won't get another trophy unless it's a really congested field where the other first place candidates cancel each other out and the unanimous 2nd place points carry him to the top of the ballot.
     
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  11. Trap Jesus Registered User

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    I still have heard absolutely nothing to suggest why Couturier should be considered a front runner. I would love to ask anyone who voted for Coutrier at #1 a simple question: why? If you think "Oh no, he was good this year, that was a fine pick." Again, I'll ask you why? Did you just hear that he was good this year and are just going along with it, or did you actually bother to look into it at all why he was getting so much attention?

    I've been heavily involved in looking into all of this and debating with people, and the responses are literally always the same in the sense that they feel he's due for an award, and that this wasn't his best season and he should have won it before. Malkin in 2012 is one of the most commonly referenced arguments, it's actually kind of hilarious. People aren't even trying to hide the fact that it's because they think he's "due". Could you imagine supporting Bergeron because of losing to Toews by a tiny margin in 2013 or winning the Cup in 2011 or something? You never have to do that with Bergeron because he always earns his spot by merit. Bergeron has been a finalist and lost a record 5 times and has been top 5 and lost a record 7 times. Does any of that matter to this year's vote? Ideally you would think no. The past is irrelevant, everyone should be making their own case every year.

    Couturier's the guy this year that you hear is supposed to win it so you just vote for him. The sheer number of 1st place votes in a situation like this was absurd, just backs how much this was like a campaign and how narrative driven it was. I already know that player will be Stone next year. This isn't a day and age where people should just resort to lazy narratives, there's actual things you can look into now to have an informed opinion.

    I can't stress this enough though, even outside of Bergeron, Couturier is just a straight up bad pick this year. If you only care about shot suppression, O'Reilly is the winner. If you only care about on-ice goal numbers, Cirelli is the winner. If you only care about microstats, Bergeron is the winner. Couturier doesn't even balance all of these 3 things the best, it's just a truly bizarre pick. Regardless of whichever number or metric you want to look at, literally the only one that supports Couturier winning is faceoff percentage when he takes 400+ fewer draws than the other candidates.

    Base Stats

    Of the 6 main candidates, these are their ranks in the very surface level stats/advanced stats (these are the quick reference stats uninformed voters will glance at before making their decision):

    StatBergeronCouturierO'ReillyCirelliDanaultStone
    Points4th (2nd Pts/G)3rd2nd6th5th1st
    Goals1st2nd6th4th5th3rd
    Plus Minus2nd3rd6th1st4th5th
    Faceoff %2nd1st3rd5th4thNA
    CA603rd2nd1st5th4th6th
    CF%3rd4th5th6th1st2nd
    FA602nd3rd1st6th4th5th
    FF%3rd4th5th6th2nd1st
    SA601st4th2nd6th3rd5th
    S%3rd4th5th6th1st2nd
    xGA601st6th4th2nd3rd5th
    xGF%3rd4th6th5th2nd1st
    GA604th3rd2nd1st5th6th
    GF%2nd3rd4th1st5th6th
    So what here screams Couturier? Faceoff % when he takes 400+ fewer draws than O'Reilly/Bergeron/Danault? Do you think it's a coincidence that people only talk about Corsi with Couturier? If so much thought was put into that, the choice would be O'Reilly.

    Effect of Zone Starts

    Zone starts get referenced a lot but if you cared so much about that, you would give it to someone like Blueger or Bonino, who keep their head above water in shot attempts despite having a ton of D-zone draws.

    Not to mention it's a lazy way to look at things, I've actually looked into how much of an effect it has:

    I looked at 2016/17 results on puckbase for zone draws that have a shot attempt for or against 10 seconds after the draw. Research finds that that's when most shots occur:

    [​IMG]

    Here were the top 120 centers (by D-zone draws taken) divided into segments of 30, and looking at how many shot attempts occur against them by dzone draw, along with their average faceoff percentages:

    D-Zone Faceoffs TakenAverage Faceoff %Shot Attempts Against Within 10 Seconds Per 100 D-Zone Draws
    Centers 1-3053.40%24.9
    Centers 31-6049.80%26.4
    Centers 61-9049.60%27.4
    Centers 91-12046.90%27.6
    If we want to look at a specific example of extremes to look at influence on shot suppression, we can look at Koivu vs. Tavares:

    While Koivu took the most defensive zone draws at 493, he also took 265 offensive zone draws. 149 shot attempts against were attributed to his D-Zone starts, and 89 shot attempts were attributed to his offensive zone starts. On the opposite end of the spectrum, John Tavares took 497 offensive zone draws to just 273 defensive zone draws. 130 shot attempts were attributed to his offensive zone starts, and 63 shot attempts against were attributed to his defensive zone starts.

    When we remove these zone starts from the equation, Koivu with a 35% O-Zone start percentage has his CF% climb from 49.63% to 51.26% (+1.63%) and Tavares with a 64.5% O-Zone start %) has his CF% drop 53.15% to 51.86% (-1.29%). If however, we extrapolate their shot generation numbers and give them 50% O-Zone starts (Koivu goes from 89-149 to 127-115, and Tavares goes from 130-63 to 101-89 based on their shot generation rates), Koivu’s CF% goes from 49.63% to 51.4% (+1.77%), and Tavares goes from 53.15% to 51.97% (-1.18%).

    So even at the opposite end of the spectrum for centers for utilization, we’re only dealing with about a 1-2% difference in their overall shot generation rates due to their zone starts. And for a center like Koivu who had such a large portion of his shot attempts for and against attributed to faceoffs, only 238 of his 2,023 shot attempts (11.8%) can be attributed to the 10 seconds following his 758 defensive or offensive zone faceoffs (which represents 11.2% of his ice time). This certainly represents a portion of his shot suppression and generation numbers, but is a relatively small part of the whole.

    If we want to look at a specific player who has a league average faceoff percentage and allowed a league average shot attempts against per defensive zone draw, we can look at Bonino:


    SituationFaceoff Win (160 total)Faceoff Loss (161 total)
    % of Sequences with 0 Shot Attempts Against Within 10 Seconds94.4%58.4%
    % of Sequences With 1 Shot Attempt Against Within 10 Seconds5.0%37.9%
    % of Sequences With 2 Shot Attempts Against Within 10 Seconds0.6%3.7%
    Bringing this to Couturier and Bergeron, Couturier is often on the ice with someone who is historically good at D-zone draws in Giroux, you can see the effect faceoff percentage has on shot attempts against above. It's going to make that difference in shot attempts against relatively small in comparison. You can see the difference it has on a mid 60 % guy to a mid 30% guy, the difference between the two is much smaller than that.

    Competition

    For all the Corsi RAPM stuff I see out there, all you need to know is this:



    Microstats

    This is the big thing to me, Bergeron always stands out head and shoulders above everyone for this.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    If we look at per TOI rates for all the Selke and Norris Candidates in terms of microstats:

    PlayerBlocked Passes/15
    Bergeron6.44
    Slavin5.74
    Carlson5.70
    Zibanejad5.45
    Koivu5.14
    Letang5.02
    Danault4.95
    O'Reilly4.82
    Brodin4.80
    Provorov4.74
    Couturier4.59
    Lowry4.52
    Barkov4.51
    Stepan4.31
    Hischier4.27
    Krejci4.20
    Hertl4.15
    Backstrom4.08
    Matthews3.90
    PlayerPuck Battles Won/15
    Bergeron5.94
    Danault5.81
    Couturier5.66
    Kopitar5.66
    Barkov5.55
    Lowry5.50
    Hertl5.38
    O'Reilly5.13
    Hischier5.06
    Koivu4.89
    Cirelli4.82
    Zibanejad4.70
    Backstrom4.63
    Matthews3.90
    Slavin3.11
    Pietrangelo2.90
    Parayko2.42
    PlayerD-Zone Loose Pucks Recovered/15
    Bergeron9.90
    Zibanejad8.87
    Lowry8.79
    Kopitar8.53
    Stepan8.40
    Koivu8.36
    Hertl8.18
    Cirelli7.40
    Krejci6.89
    PlayerStick Checks/15
    Barkov2.20
    Slavin1.99
    Danault1.94
    Koivu1.93
    McAvoy1.77
    Hischier1.69
    Cirelli1.68
    Parayko1.64
    Matthews1.45
    And if you want to look at Couturier's strongest attribute (puck battles), Koivu was the only forward to win puck battles at a higher rate than Bergeron this year:

    [​IMG]

    If you want to go back to 2017/18, it was the same thing. I didn't mind that year or 2019 so much though considering it was a much more sizable amount of time missed.

    [​IMG]

    I've already posted the eye test video enough.
     
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2020
  12. DKH Registered User

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    What a ridiculous outcome

    The Gainey factor
     
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  13. OneManIsNoMan Registered User

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    I've said it before and I'll say it again....those who vote don't want to see Bergeron pass Gainey for the all-time Selke winner. It amazing to see how many Selke finalist come and go, yet Bergeron is a finalist 9 straight years but has only won it 44% of the time in those 9 years.
     
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  14. Trap Jesus Registered User

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    PlayerTop 3 Finishes Without Winning
    Patrice Bergeron5
    Craig Ramsay5
    Ryan Kesler4
    Esa Tikkanen4
    Guy Carbonneau3
    Jonathan Toews3
    Pavel Datsyuk3
    John Madden3
    Jere Lehtinen3
    Michael Peca2
    Jari Kurri2
    Craig Conroy2
    Joel Otto2
    Anze Kopitar2
    Bobby Gould2
    Don Marcotte2


    PlayerTop 5 Finishes Without Winning
    Patrice Bergeron7
    Craig Ramsay6
    Guy Carbonneau6
    Jonathan Toews6
    Ryan Kesler5
    Michael Peca5
    Esa Tikkanen4
    Pavel Datsyuk4
    John Madden4
    Jari Kurri4
    David Backes4
    Jere Lehtinen3
    Craig Conroy3
    Joel Otto3
    Anze Kopitar3
    Sergei Fedorov3
    Ron Francis3
    Steve Kasper3
    Mikko Koivu3
    Steve Yzerman3
    Mike Ricci3
    Don Luce3

    Can't imagine what it was like for Couturier to finish in the top 5 one other time and not win it. What a snub.
     
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  15. Smitty93 Fire Half-Day Don and Neanderthal Neely

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    It seems like a lot of these guys win the year or two after they actually deserved it. It's largely a lifetime achievement award at this point.
     
  16. finchster Registered User

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    Doesn't matter if he doesn't pass Gainey, he has been top 5 in Selke voting for 11 years. He is the best defensive forward of a generation and one of the best all time. He is most likely a first ballot HHOFer, and one more Selke would be nice, but irrelevant ;)
     
  17. Dr Hook Grz-tastic Sponsor

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    You are right, but its the principle of the thing. Being screwed because of a stupid Hab is unacceptable, and furthermore, Bergeron is a better all around player than Gainey ever was. Aggravating.
     
  18. Sheppy Registered User

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    Bergeron > Gainey
     
  19. easton117 Registered User

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    Meh, they put Matthews up for the Lady Bing award the same year he got caught (and luckily not charged) flashing his ass at a female security guard.

    And that should tell you all you need to know about these things.
     
  20. Sevendust Registered User

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    This post deserves more likes
     
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  21. Over the volcano Registered User

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    With his generational defensive game and the top heavy struggles to produce at even strength - what would y’all think of giving Bergeron a third line role to lead a 100% shutdown line and create a more balanced top 9. He could still get PP and PK duties ...
     
  22. trenton1 Bergeron for Hart

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    Nothing but curiosity:

    I was just nosing around on CF and noticed that Bergeron's Modified NMC states that he has to list 3 teams that he would accept a trade to. Which ones do you think they would be? I suppose if I were him I'd just list Buffalo, Montreal and Toronto as that would be about as good as a total NMC. It's an interesting little part of the deal, though.
     
  23. Bruinaura Registered User

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    I know nothing about those stats, but still, that seems to be pretty good value :eek:
     
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  24. Dr Hook Grz-tastic Sponsor

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    Yeah that is a dodgy stat at best, SPAR or WAR is pretty much a fail when it comes to evaluating hockey. The game is just far too contextual for those kinds of calculations. But this isn't telling us what we don't already know any way form watching him for the past 17 seasons. The guy is elite and has ALWAYS been great value for his contract.
     
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