Part XVIII: Phoenix -- Imminence Front

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Tinalera

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Feb 3, 2007
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Obviously. This is basically an IPO promising a rosy yield, much like OTC listings. Dubious at the best of times, and to wit this particular poster has taken one Hell of a hit on from time to time. :cry:

Your retirement fund take a beating over the recession, did it Killion? I feel your pain:cry:
 

Tinalera

Registered User
Feb 3, 2007
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This is the most noble result in all this. If I ever had big money, enough to develop large properties, I'd do it in Glendale. The city is bending over backwards doing double backflips to make sure Westgate remains viable. Who wouldn't want to have investments in Westgate? With the city looking out for the project like that, why wouldn't everybody want to invest there? Anybody who's invested in Westgate owes the City council members a few beers I'd say.

And I can appreciate that, no question. I just think that they're not going to get alot of reception from the business community(I hope I'm wrong). Also the timing of this with the current economic climate-if 2-3 this were during a better financial time, and then yes by all means-and that's the hope for future, for better times.

But I think it's a HUGE gamble to be doing it now for CoG.
 

Killion

Registered User
Feb 19, 2010
36,763
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The idea that The Yotes staying in Phoenix hinges on when the "best time" to enter the bond market-I would think Joe or Jane Doe doing this sort of balancing act, having the financial situation the yotes does, would be told by their advisor "What are you thinking???"

Well, when you've fallen down the Rabbit Hole the way Glendale has, taking advice from a Hookah Smoking Caterpillar could well be your only salvation. I consult with him all the time. :nod:
 
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AllByDesign

Who's this ABD guy??
Mar 17, 2010
2,317
0
Location, Location!
7.75% yeild... 370 Million after interest... + 97 Million for 'arena management'... Nearly half a Billion dollars to keep an NHL team in Glendale. This is the option that is supposed to be better for the citizens of Glendale? I have been rendered speechless and light headed.
 

SMoneyMonkey

Registered User
Dec 7, 2009
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So instead of a city without a team they might end up having a team without a city :P

What happens when a city goes far in debt?
 

Tinalera

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Feb 3, 2007
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7.75% yeild... 370 Million after interest... + 97 Million for 'arena management'... Nearly half a Billion dollars to keep an NHL team in Glendale. This is the option that is supposed to be better for the citizens of Glendale? I have been rendered speechless and light headed.

Perhaps a change on that book title ABD?

Maybe " The 500 Million Dollar Coyote" "Billion Dollar Coyote"?

I'm just wondering, numbers wise, what type of annual revenue is hoped for from Westgate over the next few years? 500 Million for a franchise, I mean if you could collect taxes from a collected revenue of 4-500 million dollars per annum from that business district, even a 10 percent tax, 40-50 million per year into the Glendale coffers.

Even if MH buys the arena in 5 years, 40 million a year (plus parking revenues) is going to take at least a decade to even get close to breaking even, and can you guarantee that in perpetuity?
 
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AllByDesign

Who's this ABD guy??
Mar 17, 2010
2,317
0
Location, Location!
So instead of a city without a team they might end up having a team without a city :P

What happens when a city goes far in debt?


Well we could go back to a time when the Earp's and Clanton's had a little disagreement on what to do with the Arizona state 'Lawn Bowling' team. They had a little dispute at the OK Corral... and well.. the rest is history.

Link

:naughty:
 

AllByDesign

Who's this ABD guy??
Mar 17, 2010
2,317
0
Location, Location!
Perhaps a change on that book title ABD?

Maybe " The 500 Million Dollar Coyote" "Billion Dollar Coyote"?

I have no idea... but this needs to be on the cover...

wile-e-coyote.jpg
 

Killion

Registered User
Feb 19, 2010
36,763
3,211
So instead of a city without a team they might end up having a team without a city :P What happens when a city goes far in debt?

And is forced into bankruptcy?. Its a nughtmare scenario SMM. Their unable to pay for critical services throwing 1000's out of work, interrupting critical services, anarchy. The state & feds would have no choice but to step in with emergency financing. Bond holders would be left holding useless certs. The really scary part about this is that many highly credible economists have predicted that 2011 will indeed be the "Year of Municipal Default". Investors are fleeing the municipal bond markets as cities revenues are crashing due to tax defaults via the housing market, high un-employment etc. Its' estimated that their are hundreds of smaller cities throughout the US on the brink, along with several majors, Detroit in particular at risk. In such a climate, Glendale is facing an awfully daunting & formidable task. They have made promises and promised cheque's to Mathew Hulsizer that their butts cant cover. I hope thats not the case, however, it'd be naive' & foolhardy not to consider these factors, among others when looking at buying their upcoming offering no?...
 
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Niagara67

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Jun 4, 2010
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Perhaps a change on that book title ABD?

500 Million for a franchise, I mean if you could collect taxes from a collected revenue of 4-500 million dollars per annum from that business district, even a 10 percent tax, 40-50 million per year into the Glendale coffers.

For $500 million, Glendale should purchase the Toronto Maple Leafs - operate them in Toronto - and send the profits back to Glendale. :sarcasm:
 

PitbulI

Registered User
Dec 22, 2010
415
44
If I was COG. I would go to all the big businesses in the Westgate area first about this deal. Will the businesses stay if the Coyotes move. This is something that should have been done months ago.

Also, how much do the business owners feel, are Coyotes ticket holders coming into their businesses on game day?

This should all factor into "Do we" or "Don't we" keep the team in Glendale.

Where was the arena before? Still within Glendale limits?

I'm guessing that COG just thinks that if all the bond markets crash, whatever, the US government will come crashing down or help us out anyways.
 

Whileee

Registered User
May 29, 2010
46,061
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And is forced into bankruptcy?. Its a nughtmare scenario SMM. Their unable to pay for critical services throwing 1000's out of work, interrupting critical services, anarchy. The state & feds would have no choice but to step in with emergency financing. Bond holders would be left holding useless certs. The really scary part about this is that many highly credible economists have predicted that 2011 will indeed be the "Year of Municipal Default". Investors are fleeing the municipal bond markets as cities revenues are crashing due to tax defaults via the housing market, high un-employment etc. Its' estimated that their are hundreds of smaller cities throughout the US on the brink, along with several majors, Detroit in particular at risk. In such a climate, Glendale is facing an awfully daunting & formidable task. They have made promises and promised cheque's to Mathew Hulsizer that their butts cant cover. I hope thats not the case, however, it'd be naive' & foolhardy not to consider these factors, among others when looking at buying their upcoming offering no?...

I think it is important to note the legal aspect of this. Glendale has commissioned an optimistic study of the value of the parking rights that they propose to purchase from Hulsizer (who, for some reason is assumed to own them, just because he is putting up some money to purchase one of the tenants). In any case, this analysis estimated the net present value of the future parking revenues at $109 million, assuming a 30 year horizon and a 6% discount (yield). Are there any financial "calculators" out there who could estimate the "present value" of the parking if they it is based on a 7.75% yield over 25 years? If it is much less than $100 million (as I would expect), then who pays the difference? Presumably, paying anything substantially more than the long-term cost will constitute a "gift".
 
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Ciao

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Jul 15, 2010
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Toronto
Swallowing $25MM for this year's losses would be chump change if Glendale were to cut their losses now by refusing to issue the bonds under the present economic conditions. However smart cutting your losses might be, to some people there is just never a good time to do that. They just keep going until either they win or the whole house comes crashing down.

If the whole muni-bond market collapses, the Coyotes parking lot bonds will be inconsequential in relation to overall size of the problem. It would be like failing to wear your seatbelt while your car is run over by a train.

At the same time, I am amused by Mayor Scruggs ultimatum that the only alternative would be to lock the doors to the arena and turn off the lights. At the time she said this, she had a parking-lot consultant's report supporting the issuance of their bonds based on doubling the number of non-hockey events at the arena from 40 to 80/year. In other words, issuing the bonds would involve using the arena much more for non-hockey events that aren't dependent on the Coyotes.

My, what a tangled web they weave.
 

RECCE

The Dog House
Apr 29, 2010
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Margaritaville
7.75% yeild... 370 Million after interest... + 97 Million for 'arena management'... Nearly half a Billion dollars to keep an NHL team in Glendale. This is the option that is supposed to be better for the citizens of Glendale? I have been rendered speechless and light headed.

Are you kidding me, really, are these projections accurate?! half a billion $$$, this is just asinine. :eek:
 

Einstein Theory

Registered User
Dec 22, 2010
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I have a questions for someone who understands how the Glendale Council operates (not that you have to understand the Council Members, just the legality :sarcasm: )

QUESTION:

With the vote on December 14th, is the City Manager, Beasely, authorized to issue $125M in bonds up to a certain interest rate? Or is there a limit?

ie: Doe Beasely have carte blanche authority now to issue these bonds?

If not, does anyone care to speculate at what rate Beasely would have to go before the council again for authorization?
 

Whileee

Registered User
May 29, 2010
46,061
33,043
If I was COG. I would go to all the big businesses in the Westgate area first about this deal. Will the businesses stay if the Coyotes move. This is something that should have been done months ago.

Also, how much do the business owners feel, are Coyotes ticket holders coming into their businesses on game day?

This should all factor into "Do we" or "Don't we" keep the team in Glendale.

Where was the arena before? Still within Glendale limits?

I'm guessing that COG just thinks that if all the bond markets crash, whatever, the US government will come crashing down or help us out anyways.

Sure, but let them ask the question based on their own commissioned "number crunching". They should indicate that the number of non-Coyotes events will increase to 80 per year, with a total of more than 600,000 patrons visiting the Jobing.com even if the Coyotes are not there. Those figures are contained in their parking analysis.
 

cbcwpg

Registered User
May 18, 2010
20,099
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Between the Pipes
If this has been posted already sorry...

From azcentral today.

http://www.azcentral.com/community/...11glendale-arena-parking-revenue-studies.html


A leading national parking-lot analyst estimates in a good scenario Glendale in the next 25 years could recoup $89 million by charging for parking at Jobing.com Arena, something for which the city plans to pay $100 million.

Walker Parking Consultants' analysis would leave the city without enough money to pay the principal and interest on the money it expects to borrow.


Walker estimates that if hockey attendance remained flat, Glendale's parking collections would be $60 million over 25 years, less than a third of the amount TL Hocking projected.
 

King of Arcadia

Registered User
Feb 11, 2010
585
1
If this has been posted already sorry...

From azcentral today.

http://www.azcentral.com/community/...11glendale-arena-parking-revenue-studies.html


A leading national parking-lot analyst estimates in a good scenario Glendale in the next 25 years could recoup $89 million by charging for parking at Jobing.com Arena, something for which the city plans to pay $100 million.

Walker Parking Consultants' analysis would leave the city without enough money to pay the principal and interest on the money it expects to borrow.


Walker estimates that if hockey attendance remained flat, Glendale's parking collections would be $60 million over 25 years, less than a third of the amount TL Hocking projected.

oh my:shakehead
 

Confucius

There is no try, Just do
Feb 8, 2009
21,890
6,905
Toronto
And is forced into bankruptcy?. Its a nughtmare scenario SMM. Their unable to pay for critical services throwing 1000's out of work, interrupting critical services, anarchy. The state & feds would have no choice but to step in with emergency financing. Bond holders would be left holding useless certs. The really scary part about this is that many highly credible economists have predicted that 2011 will indeed be the "Year of Municipal Default". Investors are fleeing the municipal bond markets as cities revenues are crashing due to tax defaults via the housing market, high un-employment etc. Its' estimated that their are hundreds of smaller cities throughout the US on the brink, along with several majors, Detroit in particular at risk. In such a climate, Glendale is facing an awfully daunting & formidable task. They have made promises and promised cheque's to Mathew Hulsizer that their butts cant cover. I hope thats not the case, however, it'd be naive' & foolhardy not to consider these factors, among others when looking at buying their upcoming offering no?...

The city crumbles but Westgate will live. Don't invest in the city invest in Westgate. Ellman probably has small stakes he'd sell.:laugh:
 

Fugu

Guest
If this has been posted already sorry...

From azcentral today.

http://www.azcentral.com/community/...11glendale-arena-parking-revenue-studies.html


A leading national parking-lot analyst estimates in a good scenario Glendale in the next 25 years could recoup $89 million by charging for parking at Jobing.com Arena, something for which the city plans to pay $100 million.

Walker Parking Consultants' analysis would leave the city without enough money to pay the principal and interest on the money it expects to borrow.


Walker estimates that if hockey attendance remained flat, Glendale's parking collections would be $60 million over 25 years, less than a third of the amount TL Hocking projected.

Here's the biggest difference, in addition to the 2.5 people per vs Walker's 2.5-2.7 range. I'm flabbergasted though that one report has it $60-85m, the other is twice the highest Walker projection ($195m) which miraculously happens to be the number MH wants from COG to guy the team.

He pointed out that Coyotes reported attendance averaged from 14,000 to 15,000 before the team suffered a devastating hit to ticket-sales from the team's bankruptcy. "You would assume once the franchise got back on its feet again and started to redevelop the fan base that they would come back to those attendance numbers," Hocking said.
Reported and actual attendance varies. Reported attendance is the tickets sold, while actual attendance, usually lower, is the people through the gate.

He should be fired for using reported attendance as the basis for his estimate. Someone paid this guy to produce a report or PR fluff piece to back up the numbers they wanted out of this thing? The bankruptcy case revealed the exact attendance figures so one doesn't even have to look very far, just do some homework.

The problem is that one does not come back to those attendance numbers. They were never real.
 

dkehler

Registered User
Dec 1, 2009
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0
Winnipeg
Here's the biggest difference, in addition to the 2.5 people per vs Walker's 2.5-2.7 range. I'm flabbergasted though that one report has it $60-85m, the other is twice the highest Walker projection ($195m) which miraculously happens to be the number MH wants from COG to guy the team.



He should be fired for using reported attendance as the basis for his estimate. Someone paid this guy to produce a report or PR fluff piece to back up the numbers they wanted out of this thing? The bankruptcy case revealed the exact attendance figures so one doesn't even have to look very far, just do some homework.

The problem is that one does not come back to those attendance numbers. They were never real.

And my understanding is that doesn't even take interest into account. I don't know how anyone (Coyotes fan or not) can agree with this "deal" without feeling a great deal of shame.
 
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