Part XVIII: Phoenix -- Imminence Front

[Killion]

Well, I would say that it is at least better than even money that you will be waiting past kdb's 19th Nervous Breakdown.

Wont happen Fourier, his mother cleared up that million dollar tax problem and his father finally perfected his sealing wax formulas. Sold the recipie to 3M. Plus residuals. When your that wealthy, your not crazy, just eccentric. .

 

[MaskedSonja]

Wont happen Fourier, his mother cleared up that million dollar tax problem and his father finally perfected his sealing wax formulas. Sold the recipie to 3M. Plus residuals.

Fourier's a millionaire?! Spread the wealth, Fourier!

 

[Jesus Christ Horburn]

The 15th of this month is on Saturday.

Does that mean the good news will break before or after the weekend?

 

[Tommy Hawk]

I havn't heard a thing about anything being reported about the bonds with accurate sources. You would think that they would be coming to market very soon. Hopefully someone can post the news when it comes out. Surely that will mark an end to this situation.

The thing about the bonds is that they get rated before they get issued. In order for an issue like this to get rated, they need to have signed contracts giving them the rights to collect the money, etc. otherwise I could just say, as a muni, we are going to issue these revenue backed bonds but guess what, we don't have anything in place that actually gives us the rights to those revenues.

Well, I would say that it is at least better than even money that you will be waiting past kdb's 19th Nervous Breakdown.

He could always take a little yellow pill.......

 

[cbcwpg]

He could always take a little yellow pill.......

I wonder if it would be better to take the "red" pill or the "blue" pill.

 

[Kebekoi]

The 15th of this month is on Saturday.

Does that mean the good news will break before or after the weekend?

Just wait 5 more days

 

[DeathToAllButMetal]

Political maneuvering. It is easy to say you will vote against when you know it will pass. You can then go "I knew it was a bad idea which is why I voted against it" but did they argue against it and try to sway other council members.

And bullseyes have been put on many things for many many years by EVERYONE for one reason or another yet there has not been a plethora of shooting of those people. So let's keep the political crap associated with a maniac away from this thread. Change the avatar back. It doesn't mean squat.

Based on those comments, I doubt there is any posturing going on here. Also, this is a pretty massive issue to be split 4-3. Can lead to a LOT of internal problems after the fact. As much as Lieberman talks about how great it'll be to have more 4-3 votes, that's not the case with big issues like this. All this sort of thing does is fracture councils into parties and lead to more bloc voting in the future.

I'd imagine there is a lot of lobbying going on right now behind the scenes.

 

[Fourier]

Fourier's a millionaire?! Spread the wealth, Fourier!

Convinced 20 of my neighbours to give me $100K each for the rights to use their own driveways for the next 10 years.

(There was some tough negotiating to be done. One guy insisted on giving me $150K but I eventually beat him back.)

I also got the snow clearing contact for a combined $1.4M for the next 10 years. I then hired the neighbor's kid for $5K per year.

All money up front!

Life's good.

 

[kdb209]

Convince 20 of my neighbours to give me $100K each for the rights to use their own driveways for the next 10 years.

(There was some tough negotiating to be done. One guy insisted on giving me $150K but I eventually beat him back.)

I also got the snow clearing contact for a combined $1.4M for the next 10 years. I then hired the neighbors kid for $5K per year.

All money up front!

Life's good.

Fourier will hereafter be addressed by his title - Your Imminence - when ring kissing is involved.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

Just wait 5 more days

spill it this isnt jetsowner

 

[cbcwpg]

Seems like the CoG is waiting for just the "right" time to sell the bonds.

The City of Glendale's financial team is working on the bond issue and spokeswoman Julie Frisoni said she expects it will be issued "shortly." She said no yield or term to maturity has been released yet.

"They're going to (issue the bond) at the most advantageous time for the City of Glendale. They're monitoring the market and they'll determine when the most advantageous time is for us," said Frisoni. "It is our financial folks' expectation that these bonds will be sold this month. I don't expect this to be a long, drawn-out process."

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/sale-of-coyotes-still-not-done-deal-113260454.html

 

[Kebekoi]

I don't expect this to be a long, drawn-out process.

Like the sale of the Coyotes.

 

[AllByDesign]

Fair and balanced, no?

 

[Fugu]

Seems like the CoG is waiting for just the "right" time to sell the bonds.

"They're going to (issue the bond) at the most advantageous time for the City of Glendale. They're monitoring the market and they'll determine when the most advantageous time is for us," said Frisoni. "It is our financial folks' expectation that these bonds will be sold this month. I don't expect this to be a long, drawn-out process."

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/sale-of-coyotes-still-not-done-deal-113260454.html

Given the atmosphere, I wonder why'd they'd wait at all. Does anyone believe the bond market is that volatile, and that a few days will make a lot of difference when the general feeling is that the entire thing could experience a crash of mortgage market proportions?



From the Wpg FP:

"The municipal bond market suffered massive outflows towards the end of the year. The worry is there's credit contagion going on and that a replay of the mortgage market (meltdown) is now hitting the municipal bond market," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer of Chicago-based Harris Private Bank, a division of BMO.
Ablin isn't predicting the sky will fall in Glendale but he said many American cities and towns are financially stretched with rising debts and falling tax revenues. They're also bearing the brunt of the pullback from the private sector over the last two to three years.
He described the municipal bond market as a "patchwork quilt" of offerings with an average size of $30 million. The money raised is typically used to fund upgrades to sewer systems, hospitals, schools and sports facilities.
The City of Glendale hasn't released the terms of the bond offering but based on its previous ventures, Ablin predicted a pre-tax yield of about 7.75 per cent, a level he considers to be "pretty high" for such an issuer, with an approximately 25-year term to maturity. A similar U.S. government bond, meanwhile, has a yield of about 4.5 per cent.

So COG may be issuing a bond for 4x the average amount cities typically try to raise, and a yield rate that's just under double a US government bond (72% higher).

No wonder some might be more interested in a slightly lower yield but a higher bond rating. Factor in the general economic issues of the area, and I'm still not convinced this thing can fly. I agree with one assessment that this is a poorly run business when this is the kind of premium you have to float to give it any chance of selling.

 

[King Woodballs]

can anyone buy these bonds?
like people in other states or countries?

 

[LadyStanley]

can anyone buy these bonds?
like people in other states or countries?

Usually.

 

[cbcwpg]

Given the atmosphere, I wonder why'd they'd wait at all. Does anyone believe the bond market is that volatile, and that a few days will make a lot of difference when the general feeling is that the entire thing could experience a crash of mortgage market proportions?

Like I said, the CoG is waiting for the "right" moment. And the right moment will be 3-5 weeks from now, 15 minutes after the mayor gets a phone call from Bettman saying "ENOUGH ALREADY!" Then that will be the "right" time to issue the bonds.

 

[MaskedSonja]

Like I said, the CoG is waiting for the "right" moment. And the right moment will be 3-5 weeks from now, 15 minutes after the mayor gets a phone call from Bettman saying "ENOUGH ALREADY!" Then that will be the "right" time to issue the bonds.

Well, she said in the quote she expects to be released sometime this month, so I guess "shortly" is 2 weeks.

I agree that CoG really is going overboard-and it's what I've observed generally, that when a company/interest is going as far extreme as CoG seems to be-it ends up being a losing cause. To use an poor attempt at analogy (to make Killion happy it's like a gambler in Vegas IMO: the gambler has thrown mortgage, return plane ticket, the shirt off their back, and has covered the table, red and black-even odd, to quote Bill Cosby "I'm going to win SOMETHING before I go to sleep!"

CoG wants to "Win" the Yotes staying/making sure Westgate has a chance to prosper-though I think the price is going to be steep.

 

[CGG]

From the Wpg FP:



So COG may be issuing a bond for 4x the average amount cities typically try to raise, and a yield rate that's just under double a US government bond (72% higher).

Wow. 7.75% yield. That's a wee bit higher than the 0% forecasted in the ridiculous economic cost-benefit analysis done by the city. Over 25 years that's about $193 million in interest on $100 million, or $242 million interest on $125 million. That changes things for the city, does it not? Even the completely ignorant, illiterate, or incompetent councillors must understand that the cost-benefit analysis is now heavily skewed against the city.

 

[Killion]

Given the atmosphere, I wonder why'd they'd wait at all. Does anyone believe the bond market is that volatile, and that a few days will make a lot of difference when the general feeling is that the entire thing could experience a crash of mortgage market proportions?

Most experts are predicting just such a scenario. Massive sell-offs' in the 1st 1/2 of 2011 causing global market crashes & the destruction of wealth that'll make the dotcom & mortgage meltdowns look like minor inconveniences. Municipalities will be unable to service their bond debts as personal & commercial tax defaults spike, bankrupting the bond issuer's as they'll be unable to service their obligations. Their is no precedent for Glendale pinning so high a yield on these bonds, nothing whatsoever substantive to back it up. When viewed in totality, including the exposure the COG has on the existing arena bonds, well, I just think it's going to be a pretty hard sell & really optimistic to think it'll happen quickly. If the market was healthy, OK. But now?. Yikes...

 

[cbcwpg]

The reason I would think the CoG is waiting for the most advantageous time is the fact that the bond market does suck today.

Everything about the sale of this hockey team is like reading a prospectus on a new company about to put shares on the market for the first time. Everything from the parking to the price of tickets to the price of popcorn is all a "Forward Looking Statement".

EG>

All statements, other than statements of historical facts, including, among others, statements and projections regarding The Coyotes future financial position, operations, performance, business strategy, returns, budgets, reserves, levels of production and costs and statements regarding the plans and objectives of Hulsizer management for future operations, are forward-looking statements.

In otherwords, the theory of the CoG is to wait and hope that things tomorrow will be better than today.

 

[MaskedSonja]

The reason I would think the CoG is waiting for the most advantageous time is the fact that the bond market does suck today.

Everything about the sale of this hockey team is like reading a prospectus on a new company about to put shares on the market for the first time. Everything from the parking to the price of tickets to the price of popcorn is all a "Forward Looking Statement".

EG>

All statements, other than statements of historical facts, including, among others, statements and projections regarding The Coyotes future financial position, operations, performance, business strategy, returns, budgets, reserves, levels of production and costs and statements regarding the plans and objectives of Hulsizer management for future operations, are forward-looking statements.

In otherwords, the theory of the CoG is to wait and hope that things tomorrow will be better than today.

I know when I've dabbled (very lightly)in market stuff, I've always been told that you go with you know-don't try and "time" the market, because it's unpredictable. The idea that The Yotes staying in Phoenix hinges on when the "best time" to enter the bond market-I would think Joe or Jane Doe doing this sort of balancing act, having the financial situation the yotes does, would be told by their advisor "What are you thinking???"

 

[Killion]

In otherwords, the theory of the CoG is to wait and hope that things tomorrow will be better than today.

Obviously. This is basically an IPO promising a rosy yield, much like OTC listings. Dubious at the best of times, and to wit this particular poster has taken one Hell of a hit on from time to time.

 

[MaskedSonja]

Most experts are predicting just such a scenario. Massive sell-offs' in the 1st 1/2 of 2011 causing global market crashes & the destruction of wealth that'll make the dotcom & mortgage meltdowns look like minor inconveniences. Municipalities will be unable to service their bond debts as personal & commercial tax defaults spike, bankrupting the bond issuer's as they'll be unable to service their obligations. Their is no precedent for Glendale pinning so high a yield on these bonds, nothing whatsoever substantive to back it up. When viewed in totality, including the exposure the COG has on the existing arena bonds, well, I just think it's going to be a pretty hard sell & really optimistic to think it'll happen quickly. If the market was healthy, OK. But now?. Yikes...

I might be off the deep end (actually I am, no doubt there)-but how much of this has possibly turned into CoG wanting to keep the team just to (publically) say "SEE, we can keep a team here!" to offset all the media circus that's gone on. Is that irresponsible? Absolutely, but let's be honest, CoG hasn't exactly been the bastion of responsiblity up to this point anyway....

CoG seems to be obsessed with this, and keeping the Coyotes at all costs- damn the future financial considerations.

 

[Confucius]

Well, she said in the quote she expects to be released sometime this month, so I guess "shortly" is 2 weeks.

I agree that CoG really is going overboard-and it's what I've observed generally, that when a company/interest is going as far extreme as CoG seems to be-it ends up being a losing cause. To use an poor attempt at analogy (to make Killion happy it's like a gambler in Vegas IMO: the gambler has thrown mortgage, return plane ticket, the shirt off their back, and has covered the table, red and black-even odd, to quote Bill Cosby "I'm going to win SOMETHING before I go to sleep!"

CoG wants to "Win" the Yotes staying/making sure Westgate has a chance to prosper-though I think the price is going to be steep.

This is the most noble result in all this. If I ever had big money, enough to develop large properties, I'd do it in Glendale. The city is bending over backwards doing double backflips to make sure Westgate remains viable. Who wouldn't want to have investments in Westgate? With the city looking out for the project like that, why wouldn't everybody want to invest there? Anybody who's invested in Westgate owes the City council members a few beers I'd say.