Prospect Info: (Part 2) Round 1, Pick 22, German Rubtsov, C, Russia U-19 (MHL)

[BritainStix]

I guess? It's weird to see a forward flat-out refuse to create scoring chances in favor of playing defense. 4th liners have to be able to contribute offensively too. Even if it's infrequently. He's gotta try at least to score. He has to get outta that comfort zone of his in order to become a regular NHL contributor. There's got to be some semblance of a balanced approach.

I agree but he really seems to have struggled with the pro game.

 

[TB87]

Rubtsov is right to focus on defense first

It’s...his only focus.


Seems to have no interest whatsoever in helping out offensively. This past season was the worst example of this (to date).

 

[Adtar02]

We also don’t know what he is being told to do.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Drafting well involves a lot of luck. I was listening to a Daryl Morey interview and he was saying based on their studies, they can explain 30% of a player's future performance and the other 70% is error. I imagine in a sport like hockey when you are evaluating mostly physically immature 18 year olds, with more, harder to quantify variables, that explainable number is even lower.

The only way to get a substantial edge on the league is by having more picks than everyone else. Just a reminder as early trends are showing the team is running at a draft pick deficit since Fletcher took over. They had ten picks in 2016 and four in the top 52 in part because of the trade back from 18 OV. Any fewer than that and it's a much different looking draft, and had Hart been a causality of that, the franchise is in much different shape right now.

 

[deadhead]

Drafting is tough, but it's not a completely a crapshoot, compare Holmgren's drafts with Hextall's drafts.

Holmgren, 2006-2013
top 30: #2 JVR, #22 Giroux, #19 Sbisa, #8 Couts, #20 Laughton, #11 Morin
31-50: #39 Nodl (183g), #41 Marshall, #45 Stolarz, #41 Hagg (202+)
51-100: #52 Ratchuk, #55 Bodrov, #79 Matsumoto, #66 Klotz, #67 Bourdon, #84 DeSerres, #81 Morrison, #87 Bertilsson, #89 Chaput, #68 Cousins (324+), #78 Ghost, #72 Goul
100+: (26 misses), #122 Kempe, #161 Maroon (513), #178 Rinaldo (370g), #119 McGinn, #117 Leier

top 30: 6 picks; 3 top six forwards, 1 middle six, 1 3rd pair D-man, 1 miss
31-50: 4 picks; 2 depth players
51-100: 12 picks; 1 top 4 D-man, 1 depth forward, 10 misses
100+: 31 picks; one middle six forward, one fourth liner, 29 misses

Hextall, 2014-2018
top 30: #17 Sanheim, #7 Provorov, #24 TK, #22 Rubtsov, #2 Patrick, #27 Frost, #14 Farabee, #19 JOB
31-50: #48 NAK, #36 Laberge, #48 Hart, #35 Ratcliffe, #50 Ginning,
51-100: #86 Friedman, #70 Sandstrom, #90 Tomek, #98 Dove-McFalls. #52 Allison, #82 Twarynski, #80 Ustimenko
100+: (13 misses) #138 Lindblom, #158 Marody, #109 Bunnaman, #139 Hogberg, #169 Laczynski, #107 Sushko, #137 Cates, #196 Kalynuk, #127 Wylie [misses include long shots like Kase, Lycksell and Ersson]
UDFA: Myers, Zamula

top 30: 8 picks: 2 top 4 D-men, 1 top 6 forward, 3 still to be determined and JOB/Rubtsov
31-50: 5 picks: 1 top ten goalie, one bottom six forward
51-100: 7 picks: no one has made it, only Dove-McFalls flopped
100+ 22 picks; 1 top 6 forward, rest are unknown, Marody garnered a 3rd, Kalynuk unsigned, 13 misses

Where Hextall shined was after the 1st round.

 

[Curufinwe]

I can totally see Ruby being loaned to the KHL.

They already did it for Sushko, and I think Sushko is a better prospect at this point.

I guess I'll start the prospect polls at the end of October after the draft. So weird.

 

[Appleyard]

 

[Adtar02]

still think there is a player there. just needs the right spot.

 

[Appleyard]

still think there is a player there. just needs the right spot.

Sochi might be it... or at least help.

They are playing him with two high-skilled, small, offensive wingers. That line has one job... and it aint shutting opponets down.

Just what he needs in my eyes. Has looked good so far in the 2 games I have watched. Today has been Sochis most dangerous player.

 

[Adtar02]

Sochi might be it... or at least help.

They are playing him with two high-skilled, small, offensive wingers. That line has one job... and it aint shutting opponets down.

Just what he needs in my eyes. Has looked good so far in the 2 games I have watched. Today has been Sochis most dangerous player.

thanks for the update. don't thinking our AHL coaching really helped him much.

 

[Appleyard]

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I passionately despised the Dove-McFalls pick at 98. Just awful. Coming from a guy who still thinks Ginning will play in the NHL.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

There's maybe a 4th liner there, Alex. But do you really want a 4th liner with virtually no physicality?

 

[Appleyard]

There's maybe a 4th liner there, Alex. But do you really want a 4th liner with virtually no physicality?

He is not scared of the body at all... he hits about as much as a guy like Raffl and is very committed to forechecking and D. I mean... we saw that in his NHL cup of coffee. Throwing himself down to block shots, a few decent hits.

If he was North American and a 4th rounder people would think he was the next Blair Betts. The man eats, breaths and sleeps defence.

The issue with him is just how committed to defence he is to be honest. Has good hands, nice passing and vision. But just so tentative past NZ.

Hopefully his offensive role in Sochi changes that. He has the talent to be a good middle sixer.

 

[deadhead]

I think this could be the perfect setup for Rubtsov, because he can't come back this year, he doesn't have to play with one eye looking over his shoulder for Flyer scouts to impress, and can just focus on playing hockey and improving his game - then use this season as a launch pad to compete for a NHL job in 2021-22.

Playing on the 1st line with skilled linemates should help his offensive development, now he just has to stay healthy and climb that learning curve.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

He is not scared of the body at all... he hits about as much as a guy like Raffl and is very committed to forechecking and D. I mean... we saw that in his NHL cup of coffee. Throwing himself down to block shots, a few decent hits.

If he was North American and a 4th rounder people would think he was the next Blair Betts. The man eats, breaths and sleeps defence.

The issue with him is just how committed to defence he is to be honest. Has good hands, nice passing and vision. But just so tentative past NZ.

Hopefully his offensive role in Sochi changes that. He has the talent to be a good middle sixer.

I appreciate your input. But while Rubtsov may not shy away from physicality, he doesn't initate. Not in my viewings. He hangs back and is very responsible defensively. I wouldn't be shocked if he makes the NHL. But don't you want a little more grit out of the 4th line? Some speed? Some forecheck? I just don't see Rubtsov crashing in after a puck and winning a board battle. I see him hanging back in the neutral zone.

 

[FlyguyOX]

He'd be a great 4th liner for the islanders. Great at boring hockey.

 

[Appleyard]

I appreciate your input. But while Rubtsov may not shy away from physicality, he doesn't initate. Not in my viewings. He hangs back and is very responsible defensively. I wouldn't be shocked if he makes the NHL. But don't you want a little more grit out of the 4th line? Some speed? Some forecheck? I just don't see Rubtsov crashing in after a puck and winning a board battle. I see him hanging back in the neutral zone.

Flyers best 2 bottom sixers of the last 15 years are Kapanen and Raffl. Neither were physical or hit. Though of course both had/have speed, and battled when needed.

Rubtsov forechecks fine for me when at wing... at C, yeh, he is very defensive. Though the last 2 games in Sochi he did just that while at C. Which was nice to see.

 

[deadhead]

Flyers best 2 bottom sixers of the last 15 years are Kapanen and Raffl. Neither were physical or hit. Though of course both had/have speed, and battled when needed.

Rubtsov forechecks fine for me when at wing... at C, yeh, he is very defensive. Though the last 2 games in Sochi he did just that while at C. Which was nice to see.

Uh, Raffl has 770 hits in 470 career games, that's about 110 per 80 game season.
Now he's not Martin, but Raffl is a consistently physical forechecker. Not a slobberknocker kind of hitter, but he does arrive with some 'tude.

 

[Appleyard]

Uh, Raffl has 770 hits in 470 career games, that's about 110 per 80 game season.
Now he's not Martin, but Raffl is a consistently physical forechecker. Not a slobberknocker kind of hitter, but he does arrive with some 'tude.

Rubtsov hit in the AHL. He hit in his call-up. He has hit in the KHL.

Some of his best plays in the NHL were when he instigated physical contact and won a battle. And he is not scared to get into it on the boards.

Ofc, when at C not often F1 line Raffl is usually though.


Rubtsovs issues dont lie with physicality, two-way game etc. They are mostly on his passivity when his team have the puck, and sitting off in NZ.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Flyers best 2 bottom sixers of the last 15 years are Kapanen and Raffl. Neither were physical or hit. Though of course both had/have speed, and battled when needed.

Rubtsov forechecks fine for me when at wing... at C, yeh, he is very defensive. Though the last 2 games in Sochi he did just that while at C. Which was nice to see.

Kapanen and Raffl are WAY more physical, with straight-line speed, than Rubtsov. And maybe I'm wrong on Rubtsov. But he seems east-west to me. To me, Kapanen and Raffl battle every shift. Rubtsov? Sometimes.

 

[Appleyard]

Kapanen and Raffl are WAY more physical, with straight-line speed, than Rubtsov. And maybe I'm wrong on Rubtsov. But he seems east-west to me. To me, Kapanen and Raffl battle every shift. Rubtsov? Sometimes.

I dont think you can doubt his battle in any way. He will throw himself infront of any shot and is not scared to go into a battle with anyone along the boards. Heck, his shoulder injuries are partially a result of that. And I would not describe his game as east-west at all. I wish he would play more east west and take some risks and try and use his skill. Tbh his problem is he just plays a south game at times haha.

The issue is really... is his IQ actually lacking and not near what it needs to be? And he fooled people into thinking his IQ was good due to a weird mix of being good defensively and very diligent there while being skilled offensively. Hopefully it just is that he has been overly tentative and too D focused.

I guess we find out this year maybe.

 

[deadhead]

Bunnaman was also very conservative offensively with the Flyers, wonder if that was taught in TC, defense first, then open up your game once you master your defensive assignments.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I dont think you can doubt his battle in any way. He will throw himself infront of any shot and is not scared to go into a battle with anyone along the boards. Heck, his shoulder injuries are partially a result of that. And I would not describe his game as east-west at all. I wish he would play more east west and take some risks and try and use his skill. Tbh his problem is he just plays a south game at times haha.

The issue is really... is his IQ actually lacking and not near what it needs to be? And he fooled people into thinking his IQ was good due to a weird mix of being good defensively and very diligent there while being skilled offensively. Hopefully it just is that he has been overly tentative and too D focused.

I guess we find out this year maybe.

I think you need a 4th liner to be fast and forecheck. I see Rubtsov as very passive. That's it. Maybe he'll make it.

 

[Adtar02]

I dont think you can doubt his battle in any way. He will throw himself infront of any shot and is not scared to go into a battle with anyone along the boards. Heck, his shoulder injuries are partially a result of that. And I would not describe his game as east-west at all. I wish he would play more east west and take some risks and try and use his skill. Tbh his problem is he just plays a south game at times haha.

The issue is really... is his IQ actually lacking and not near what it needs to be? And he fooled people into thinking his IQ was good due to a weird mix of being good defensively and very diligent there while being skilled offensively. Hopefully it just is that he has been overly tentative and too D focused.

I guess we find out this year maybe.

Could also be what he is being told to do. Seems that he is always trying to do what the coach wants. And here we wanted defense first out of young guys to make the team.

Find it amusing watching people argue with you who don’t watch him tell what he is bad at.