Kris Baker said:
At this point, what else do we have other than evaluating their performance against comparable competition? I should have been more specific. That was the main point, though. I think I know where you're going, and can't say that I disagree, but I'll wait and see.
Well, to me it starts with knowing the player. I mean, I can go on a Swedish site (or any country I know little about) right now and look at full stats from a single team and I still wouldn't know who are the best players, who has the skills, who is a sniper, etc.
I realize you've narrowed it down a little by saying "first rounders". It is an indication that neither of them is chump change. But if I didn't know better, I might think Parise is a prototypical smallish finesse forward. I also wouldn't know how they score their points.
I need to know the player very well. Then I need to know as much as possible about the league because certain players will thrive under certain conditions. Then I need to know about the team. Then the linemates. Even with all that, I still feel there is a lot of guesswork but I could never pull it off on first round status and stats alone. That's why I come here. Get more firsthand info.
Take a look at these Swedish players in Italy, in scoring order:
http://www.eliteprospects.com/stats_europe.php?leagueid=Italy&name=Serie%20A%20(Italy)
I think I know a name or two in there. Not only do I have no idea how skilled those guys are in Italy, it would be even more difficult for me to determine who is a better fit for the NHL.
I see statistics as an indicator of trends that will confirm my suspicions or challenge the notion I have on a player. That's the best way I've been able to put it in words so far.
For instance, a 10 point season in the AHL for Vanek would mean I would seriously question my former evaluation of him. Something like .750 (ballpark) is pretty much what I expect. Something significant over 1ppg might force me to reassess a little. To further inquire.
Here's the best example of a guy who is challenging me a little right now: Clayton Stoner. He's just that huge, hardworking mother of a defenseman in the WHL with pretty typical stats last year, drafted in the 3rd or 4th round by Minny. So far, so good.
He misses some time at the beginning of the season. When he comes back, he starts piling up the points. After about 8-9 games, he's got 8-9 points. So far, so good. That's kind of cute. Is he on a hot streak? Really lucky? I'm not going to lose sleep over it. But now it's been 17 games and he's got 16 points. I mean, he's got a ppg that compares admirably with almost any CHL D.
He's a real headscratcher for me. I know I like him. But this year I haven't seen him. And he's statistically on another level. I have to take into consideration:
The small sample statistically
That he is still a huge beast of a D
The level he's playing at, his age
I need to find out how is team is doing
I need to find out if he plays with Belle, if Belle is helping him, and why Belle actually has a lower ppg when he is an older guy taken much higher a year before.
I need to find out why he didn't make the Russia challenge.
Just looking at it like that, it looks like maybe Stoner was drafted too late. But I am not definitively sure yet. I'm going to use these stats as a basis to inquire further and find out what the hell is going on and why this guy, who has all the attributes I want in a shutdown D and had me absolutely sold on him in the past is piling up points like a quarterback this year.
I'm going to tell you straight: if all I knew about Stoner was that he was drafted in the 4th round and has 16 points in 17 games, I would be *convinced* this guy is a 5 foot 10 hotshot who cheats his position and/or gets overpowered easily. I might even think he is plagued with injury because of his small size.
Also, I think it is still very early to look at stats. Same can be said of Parise and Vanek. Both could go on hot and cold streaks.
I know this is exagerated but keep in mind at one point, rookie Stanislav Chistov was on pace for over 160 goals and 160 assists in his rookie season