Panarin vs Svechnikov

[tarheelhockey]

Sure but he would need to be on the level of Stamkos to warrant being taken sight unseen over an established player of Panarin's caliber.

No, he would not “need” to be at that level. Panarin himself isn’t at that level, for one thing, and there are a number of teams in this league who would rather have the prospect on an ELC than the 27 year old in a UFA season.

If that’s not the right choice for Columbus, fine, but not everyone is in that same boat.

 

[Section88]

Scouts are pretty much unanimous that Svechnikov is going to be a Tarasenko-level player. The chances are fairly heavily in the favor that a player with this profile, being the clear consensus #1 forward in a draft, achieves a Panarin level.

I get that, i understand why people would vote svechnikov, but i just think the sure thing is the better option.

 

[BrindAmours Army]

Sure but he would need to be on the level of Stamkos to warrant being taken sight unseen over an established player of Panarin's caliber.

Depends on your team. If your team is in its Cup window, the sure thing is going to likely be the better deal as he'll likely contribute more next season. Though, a contending team up against the cap might be interested in the more cost controlled asset as they could used the saved funds to go after another productive player.

The Hurricanes, on the other hand, have not been to the playoffs in 9 seasons. So one season of Panarin doesn't look that attractive compared to a prospect believed to be of that level, which the team would have some control over for 7 years, 3 of which would be for very cheap.

I would not trade #2 for Panarin because I imagine he will want to sign with a contender, which the Canes are not yet. Svechnikov, even if he doesn't reach that level, should still be a damn good player. I'll take seven years of that over the one of Panarin.

 

[FlyTimmo]

Svechnikov, easily. Panarin is great, but he is turning 27 in the fall. That isn't old, but that might not be ideal for a team that isn't looking to compete for a cup in the next few years.

If for some reason an up and coming contender wins the lottery, maybe getting Panarin would make sense. In the case of Carolina and maybe Montreal, I'd much rather have Svechnikov.

 

[Sstroh84]

Would you have traded today's Panarin for Puljujavri two years ago in his draft year? Several people on this board probably would of cause Pulju was a sure thing, right? Now it looks like a terrible deal. A prospect is still a prospect no matter what scouts say about him and sure things are more rare than this board would ever admit.

 

[LakeLivin]

First, it underrates the risk inherent in any prospect regardless of draft pedigree. While there are certainly cases for preferring a forward prospect who is projected to be significantly better than an established player, when the two are similar (as Panarin and Svechnikov will be IF Svechnikov hits his upside) then it's almost always wiser to go with the established player.

Second, this is a weak year for forwards. Svechnikov is not on par with other #1 forwards (who all go first in the draft when available). Rather his injury shortened season puts him more on par with someone like Galchenyuk.

Unfortunately, like 2014, this is a weak year to be near the top without getting Dahlin. While the Hurricanes arguably need a franchise forward, this isn't a year when one like Stamkos (who went before Doughty), Tavares (who went before Hedman), or Mackinnon (who went before Jones) is available.

That's funny, I'm reading the opposite. Are you holding it against Svech that he'll go second because Dahlin is rated a true generational defensive prospect? There hasn't been a defensive prospect as highly rated as Dahlin available in the time frame you're referencing. Just one article: NHL Draft 2018: Why Andrei Svechnikov's star potential is on par with Rasmus Dahlin

Would you have traded today's Panarin for Puljujavri two years ago in his draft year? Several people on this board probably would of cause Pulju was a sure thing, right? Now it looks like a terrible deal. A prospect is still a prospect no matter what scouts say about him and sure things are more rare than this board would ever admit.

Ruh? Svech is the top ranked forward in the draft. Wouldn't the appropriate comparison be Matthews? Or Laine if you want to go overall position drafted?

 

[Crede777]

Ruh? Svech is the top ranked forward in the draft. Wouldn't the appropriate comparison be Matthews? Or Laine if you want to go overall position drafted?

No. Matthews and Laine were being talked about well before their draft year as being future top talents.

Svechnikov doesn't have nearly the hype or expectation.

 

[LakeLivin]

No. Matthews and Laine were being talked about well before their draft year as being future top talents.

Svechnikov doesn't have nearly the hype or expectation.

You're subjectively equating Svech with Puljujarvi as a prospect, which is in essence begging the question. If I felt they were equivalent I'd be inclined to go with the proven player as well. But I, like many others on here as well as many analysts, have Svech way ahead of where Pulju was as a prospect.

 

[Crede777]

You're subjectively equating Svech with Puljujarvi as a prospect, which is in essence begging the question. If I felt they were equivalent I'd be inclined to go with the proven player as well. But I, like many others on here as well as many analysts, have Svech way ahead of where Pulju was as a prospect.

No I'm not. I'm equating Svechnikov with Bennett and Reinhart. Guys who have good upside but not franchise level talents.

The next franchise talent will likely be Jack Hughes next year.

 

[Sol]

The fact this is nearly even is a bit stupid. One is a franchise Player and the other is supposed to be one.

 

[LakeLivin]

No I'm not. I'm equating Svechnikov with Bennett and Reinhart. Guys who have good upside but not franchise level talents.

The next franchise talent will likely be Jack Hughes next year.

Many do see Svech as a franchise level talent. Curious: you've mentioned several times that he hasn't had the hype of some other recent prospects. How much are you basing your projections on hype vs. scouting or data? Here's some actual data. In his first year of draft eligibility Svech scored even strength goals at a higher rate than some pretty good players. He was hurt part of past season so his overall numbers aren't as high as some of the others, but his production rate was better than all except McDavid. Hey, you've got your projections for Svech, I've got mine. We'll just have to wait a couple of years to see who was closer to being right.

 

[GoldiFox]

No. Matthews and Laine were being talked about well before their draft year as being future top talents.

Svechnikov doesn't have nearly the hype or expectation.

You are just flat wrong here. Laine was #4 on McKenzie’s 2016 pre-season list (Chychrun and Puljujarvi ahead). Svechnikov has been hyped as the best forward in this Draft for a long time.

It’s ok to not know what is going on with the Draft, but don’t try to re-write history.

 

[Crede777]

Look, I understand Canes fans are really hyped about this guy, but he is not anything special. And certainly not in the Matthews/Laine category.

Also yes Laine absolutely was being talked about 2+ seasons before his draft.

 

[Shaman464]

First, it underrates the risk inherent in any prospect regardless of draft pedigree. While there are certainly cases for preferring a forward prospect who is projected to be significantly better than an established player, when the two are similar (as Panarin and Svechnikov will be IF Svechnikov hits his upside) then it's almost always wiser to go with the established player.

So, Darren Helm was a better center going into the 2015 season because he was established? Or less hyperbolic, Tavares was better because he was established? This argument is nonsensical, there are players that are so good that professional scouts, who are paid a ton of money to know whats going on, stake their collective reputations on being right. Do they mess up? Sure. But, when it comes to forwards at the top of the draft, they are very likely to get it right, and they are saying he's a franchise player. Panarin is very good winger, one I would kill for on the Wings, but when things are all said and done Svech is much more likely to have the better career. And its a gamble I think most GMs that aren't looking only to next year, would make.

 

[sqw3r]

No. Matthews and Laine were being talked about well before their draft year as being future top talents.

Svechnikov doesn't have nearly the hype or expectation.

I'm sorry what? He was talked about on russian hockey boards in 2015, long before his move to NA. Just because a talented russian player is underhyped in NA media doesn't mean he wasn't talked about: see Kuznetsov and Kucherov, both of whom were widely known to be among the most talented players of their respective drafts in Russia but were taken so late.

 

[Winston Wolf]

Look, I understand Canes fans are really hyped about this guy, but he is not anything special. And certainly not in the Matthews/Laine category.

Also yes Laine absolutely was being talked about 2+ seasons before his draft.

You really couldn't look more clueless in this thread if you tried.

 

[Crede777]

You really couldn't look more clueless in this thread if you tried.

Not as clueless as the people who are calling him a franchise winger.

There's no franchise talent available in this draft besides maybe Dahlin. As a result, any team would want to take the established franchise player over anyone in this draft.

You take Hedman, Doughty, Jones, etc. over Dahlin 10/10 times. And you take 80+ point wingers over Svechnikov every time. Contract, age, and all.

 

[Winston Wolf]

Not as clueless as the people who are calling him a franchise winger.

There's no franchise talent available in this draft besides maybe Dahlin. As a result, any team would want to take the established franchise player over anyone in this draft.

You take Hedman, Doughty, Jones, etc. over Dahlin 10/10 times. And you take 80+ point wingers over Svechnikov every time. Contract, age, and all.

That you think he's not a franchise talent is merely your opinion and that opinion is a minority one at best. In the past 10 drafts, Svechnikov would be the 3rd best wing prospect, only behind Laine and Hall. Saying that he's "nothing special" is just plain dumb. He would've went 1st overall last year, in 2014, been in conversation with the top 4 in 2013, and the obvious 1st in 2012 and 2011. Comparing him to Puljujarvi is also a complete reach. Puljujarvi obviously had monster potential with his size and abilities, but he had tons of question marks about his game, which Svechnikov does not.

A top 40 forward with one year left on his contract is not even close in value to that kind of player. Buffalo also wouldn't trade Dahlin for any of those players, either. Do you think your team would've traded #3 in 2016 for a player that's over 8 years older and on the verge of free agency? Yeah, it's not happening.

 

[Crede777]

That you think he's not a franchise talent is merely your opinion and that opinion is a minority one at best. In the past 10 drafts, Svechnikov would be the 3rd best wing prospect, only behind Laine and Hall. Saying that he's "nothing special" is just plain dumb. He would've went 1st overall last year, in 2014, been in conversation with the top 4 in 2013, and the obvious 1st in 2012 and 2011. Comparing him to Puljujarvi is also a complete reach. Puljujarvi obviously had monster potential with his size and abilities, but he had tons of question marks about his game, which Svechnikov does not.

A top 40 forward with one year left on his contract is not even close in value to that kind of player. Buffalo also wouldn't trade Dahlin for any of those players, either. Do you think your team would've traded #3 in 2016 for a player that's over 8 years older and on the verge of free agency? Yeah, it's not happening.

First off, I am not comparing him to Puljujarvi. I've compared him to Galchenyuk and Bennet/Reinhart.

Second, yes I would expect a team with the #3 overall to trade it for a player who is at the projected player's upside even if he is 8 years older and has 1 year left. Re-signing isn't an issue provided you have the cap space to meet player demands.

This thread just another example of the shiny new toy trope on hfboards where prospects get massively overhyped because of their perceived ceilings or because of ELC.

As for comparing him to 2014, if Ekblad were in this draft year he would go before both Dahlin and Svechnikov as the exceptional status Canadian player.

 

[Sstroh84]

The key to the argument is there were other "sure things" like Puljujarvi who were thought to be cant miss forwards. There is always a chance they don't make it to their potential. You cant trade a guy who is at or near the ceiling of a prospect for a guy who may get there. Salary and age included.

 

[Leafidelity]

i dont think Svechnikov will ever be as good as Panarin is right now. But Panarin is very good, so thats not much of a slight.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Not as clueless as the people who are calling him a franchise winger.

There's no franchise talent available in this draft besides maybe Dahlin. As a result, any team would want to take the established franchise player over anyone in this draft.

You take Hedman, Doughty, Jones, etc. over Dahlin 10/10 times. And you take 80+ point wingers over Svechnikov every time. Contract, age, and all.

You can't just say Panarin is any 80 point winger. The guy is one of the biggest cherry-pickers in the league and makes far too many high-risk plays. For every offensive chance he creates, he's usually creating one the other way as well.

 

[Sstroh84]

You can't just say Panarin is any 80 point winger. The guy is one of the biggest cherry-pickers in the league and makes far too many high-risk plays. For every offensive chance he creates, he's usually creating one the other way as well.

I question if you have ever seen Panarin play. He is actually pretty good defensively. Does he make some turnovers when his creative move backfires? sure, but so does Kane, McDavid, and any other high end offensive player.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Ruh? Svech is the top ranked forward in the draft. Wouldn't the appropriate comparison be Matthews? Or Laine if you want to go overall position drafted?

that assumes that one draft is the carbon copy of the next which obviously isn't true....unless Dahlin is only the equivalent of Olli Joulevi because he was the top defenseman in his class

Puljujarvi was the third wheel in a "big 3" draft, Columbus went off the board not taking him, he's a good comp for Svechnikov as a prospect - as is Mitch Marner like your ESP/60 chart would indicate

I voted Svech in this for the ELC benefits, but the risk of a bust absolutely needs to be acknowledged

 

[LakeLivin]

that assumes that one draft is the carbon copy of the next which obviously isn't true....unless Dahlin is only the equivalent of Olli Joulevi because he was the top defenseman in his class

Puljujarvi was the third wheel in a "big 3" draft, Columbus went off the board not taking him, he's a good comp for Svechnikov as a prospect - as is Mitch Marner like your ESP/60 chart would indicate

I voted Svech in this for the ELC benefits, but the risk of a bust absolutely needs to be acknowledged

Of course no two drafts are alike. And of course the risk of a bust is real. Everyone does a risk/ reward analysis (even if it's subconscious) and bases decisions on the result. My point is that for that particular draft year at least there's an objective basis for choosing Matthews or Laine as a comparator: the top forward or 2nd overall selection. Now, the comparison may not be accurate due to variations in talent across years, but at least there's an objective basis for it. Selecting Puljujarvi as a comparator is totally subjective (unless I missed some criteria that wasn't specified).

Like I said, we each do our own risk/ reward calculation for Svech, and they will of course differ. But based on what I've read, as well as the opinion of many neutral fans here, it's apparent that Crede who first suggested Pulju for comparison, is somewhat of an outlier with regard to how he views Svech.