But if we get Artemi Panarin, when will we get an elite player?
Seriously though, there is little to no benefit of not going after a guy like Stamkos, Tavares, or Panarin like people were saying at the times those guys were FAs. The way that rookie deals are starting to get elevated, I kinda would like the cost certainty of what my top player is and then if you have the unforeseen happen and you draft the next Connor McDavid with a lottery pick two years into the superstar's 8 year deal, you still have a very high quality asset that you could pivot and get a ton of futures for.
Like anyone who would not be in favor of going after Karlsson this summer (provided he has interest) because we are still several years away. Or anyone who was anti-Tavares this past offseason (yeah, it wasn't likely, but there were people here that said no way). The way contracts are starting to work is when you are tanking you can either get a couple high picks and use up their cheap labor by the time you're ready to win and be paying them as much or more than a comparable FA.
Any guy worthy of tanking for is going to have a 10M+ contract once his ELC runs out. And if you're blatantly tanking, you're generally playing on several years of sucking. So, right when you are starting to get good, you'll have to re-negotiate all of your deals. Like how Toronto now has to finagle Marner and Matthews at the same time. I think with McDavid and Draisaitl and Eichel getting gigantic 2nd deals, the market is shifting for true star players coming in through the draft. Gone will be the 6M Nathan MacKinnon deal. Young guys and their agents know how much they're worth and aren't putting up with bridge nonsense.
And if the choice is John Tavares (who I know is a superstar center) for 11M or hoping beyond hope that I draft Jack Eichel and hope he develops into a superstar center and then pay him around 11M (10.5 for Eichel I think) by the time I'm actually competing, I go for the player who is a bonafide stud already.
I think Detroit would have a very hard time competing for a Stanley Cup after signing a superstar forward. As backwards as that sounds, here's why I feel this way:
You need (nearly) all the right pieces to come together at once.
Let's say they drop $10M on Panarin. And he lights it up here with Larkin and Company. And Zadina and Rasmussen develop quickly. And AA stays hot, and Mantha takes that next step. So you're really cooking with gas in the forward department.
You still have a mess on defense. And more importantly, a mess that isn't getting fixed quickly. So even if Hronek and Cholowski continue to grow, defensemen simply don't develop as fast as forwards. And now that you've unloaded a Brink's truck on a forward in free agency, how are you adding a significant defenseman (or two) to stabilize the blue line? By trading one or more forwards? Or rapidly emptying the cupboard and also trading multiple picks? (But keep in mind, you likely now have draft picks in the 15-25 range, instead of top 10, so their value is lower.)
If you're chasing a Cup in the modern cap era, you almost HAVE to have at least one great player still on an ELC, or your window begins to close as soon as it opens. I love the transparency that Toronto used for rebuilding, but even with hitting the lottery on Matthews, they are about to hit the same financial wall that Detroit would likely encounter, if the Wings made it rain on a forward this summer, because (IMO) they didn't do more to address the defense earlier in the rebuild.
Or are you suggesting that somebody like Panarin, when coupled with this current roster/prospects, would be approaching enough to contend?