Post-Game Talk: Pain - CHI 6 EDM 4 - CHI leads series 1-0

[CycloneSweep]

If its and buts were candies and nuts we'd all have a jolly fine Christmas.

This team lost game 1 because its best players were exposed defensively and slipped back into bad habits and would up chasing the game. The aggressive veteran goalie slipped on a banana peel and killed early momentum. The trade deadline was a reward for an over achieving team with holes and still lacking in team speed. Holland dealt for players he knew deeply qualifying some of the risk and betting on this team which was responsive all year to a veteran coaching staff. In game 1, Chicago's Cup winning veteran core, Toews; Crawford; Keith; Kane elevated their team with smart, technically sound and aggressive play that frankly exposed McDavid; Klefbom and Larssen; aided and abetted by a mediocre turn by Smith in net.

The Oiler culture is set by McDavid, Draisaitl, Klefbom, Nurse and likely Smith. Contrasted to Chicago's leadership group it is inexperienced, still forming, learning and growing. It is unfortunate the new guys haven't come in and established themselves with this team's success. But I have no illusion that nice guy Sam, Haas and Nygard would have the ability to move the needle let alone when the top players were outgunned in game 1. Projecting how players like Kassian and others are perceived by their teammates and coaching staff is pure fandom stuff mainly reflecting one's subjective bias. Tippett and his coaching staff have been great at molding and unifying a disperate group of players to start the season into a developing team with some resiliency. We'll learn a lot about how far this group has come in game 2. But we'll learn most by seeing how the team's best players respond to playoff adversity.

Including this game we are 4-4-2 since the deadline. 31 GF, 31 GA
It's been a rough stretch since the deadline. 8/31 of those goals came from one game against Nashville

 

[Panda Bear]

We made a minor improvement. When our overall placement in the league is one spot changed its not a good improvement. But yes we did make a small improvement offensively while staying the same defensively

moneypuck xGoals against/60
2019-20: 2.39
2018-19: 2.54

naturalstattrick xGoals against/60
2019-20: 2.36
2018-19: 2.38

naturalstattrick HDCSA/60
2019-20: 10.7
2018-19: 11.7

hockeyviz xGoals/60
2019-20: 2.61
2018-19: 2.66

I provided numbers on previous posts showing that our xGoals differential/60 have gone from ~-0.25/60 to ~-0.13/60.

We're better at even strength. We're not good at even strength, but we're not in the bottom two tiers either. We're below average, but we have players who outperform xGoals due to the quality of their chances created and shots (Draisaitl, McDavid). Montreal does fantastically, and they fare worse than we do for that reason.

Moneypuck may be the best one of the three xGoals sites as its model integrates puck movement the best.

It's silly to switch the narrative from xGoals differential to xGoals against only as that doesn't capture the overall improvement, and it's silly to only consult a single source. We improved on both sides of the puck.

 

[Zaddy]

I'm wondering if the Oilers would have been better off standing pat at the deadline and keeping the two 2nds, 4th and 5th. The team was humming along pretty well prior to the deadline and guys like Gagner, Haas and Nygard were playing their roles well and in Gagner's case, was a real glue guy that seemed to energize the group. Ever since the deadline, the Oilers have clearly lacked the "juice" that Tippett so often mentioned earlier in the season when they were playing well. It's a flat group that hasn't yet gotten off the mat.

Honestly, Ennis, AA and Green have brought nothing to the table that Haas, Nygard and Gagner didn't outside of little spurts from Ennis here and there (although the Green situation was out of Holland's control) and team play has been noticeably worse with the new additions.
In fairness, it's still a pretty small sample size (10 games or so) and I admire Holland for attempting to give a boost to the group going into the playoffs but in early returns, it's looking like a failed experiment (the AA trade in particular).

I'm fine with the Ennis and Green trades, even if they don't work out you added some depth for cheap, but the one that stings is AA. Paid a relatively high price for a mediocre player. Could've just kept Gagner as you said. I honestly don't understand how AA managed to score 30 last season.

 

[CycloneSweep]

moneypuck xGoals against/60
2019-20: 2.39
2018-19: 2.54

naturalstattrick xGoals against/60
2019-20: 2.36
2018-19: 2.38

naturalstattrick HDCSA/60
2019-20: 10.7
2018-19: 11.7

hockeyviz xGoals/60
2019-20: 2.61
2018-19: 2.66

I provided numbers on previous posts showing that our xGoals differential/60 have gone from ~-0.25/60 to ~-0.13/60.

We're better at even strength. We're not good at even strength, but we're not in the bottom two tiers either. We're below average, but we have players who outperform xGoals due to the quality of their chances created and shots (Draisaitl, McDavid). Montreal does fantastically, and they fare worse than we do for that reason.

Moneypuck may be the best one of the three xGoals sites as its model integrates puck movement the best.

It's silly to switch the narrative from xGoals differential to xGoals against only as that doesn't capture the overall improvement, and it's silly to only consult a single source. We improved on both sides of the puck.

And my point is even with that, we end up as a bottom 10 team in those stats

 

[Joey Moss]

I’ll say it.. McDavids effort level was garbage yesterday. Way too much floating and soft plays. Need our leader to be a lot better.

 

[MaxR11]

McDavid in the morning just feeling all those negative Oilers fan waves in the aether.

He's probably perusing hfoil now... nothing better to do in the bubble.

 

[Snipes45]

Khaira is our best penalty killer, at least statistically. It's shocking that he can be that good on the PK but suck defensively 5on5. He is also the worst offensive player in the lineup by a drastic margin. Throw Haas in, at least he has a bit of speed and as an unknown could surprise.

I think it has to do with guys like him, Chaisson, and Neal being slow. These guys were dumping pucks in and galloping in like they are in sand. They can never get to the pucks that they dump in fast enough. Do not like this line at all. You need guys like Haas if you want to dump and chase. That Neal line should be carrying the puck in or might as well just lob it to the other team from the red line and get ready for an attack.

 

[T-Funk]

I think it has to do with guys like him, Chaisson, and Neal being slow. These guys were dumping pucks in and galloping in like they are in sand. They can never get to the pucks that they dump in fast enough. Do not like this line at all. You need guys like Haas if you want to dump and chase. That Neal line should be carrying the puck in or might as well just lob it to the other team from the red line and get ready for an attack.

Oilers are notoriously bad with dump and chase. You need players willing to sacrifice some pain for retrieval. We never want to put the work in.

 

[Snipes45]

I remember McDavid being pretty decent defensively when he came into the league and its just eroded from there. I remember him challenging for pucks and using his stick/good hands to win a decent amount of 50/50 pucks.

Two years ago (I think), he really started (ridiculously) cheating for offense. He did a lot of fly-bys. To be fair, we didnt have much depth and if McDavid wasnt scoring, we didnt have much chance. He was in a bit of tough position.

This year, he has been pretty awful defensively. He pretty much hasnt engaged defenders all year. I personally think it was because of his knee injury. I dont think he wanted to get hurt. I think its fairly understandable if thats the case.

We have much more depth this year than in the past, I think McDavid needs to try to adapt his game a bit better to use his linemates and play more of a 200 ft game. If hes healthy now, I think he needs to focus more on the details of the defensive game and have more impact all over the ice rather than just in the offensive zone.

Hes an amazing player but I agree I think he has picked up some bad habits over the last few years. When hes getting caved 5 on 5 ... its not a good recipe for success.

You know why he cheats sometimes (and Leon)? Lets say McDavid goes Dennis Rodman and goes on vacay for 2 weeks. List me who on this team will score the goals that you can 100% rely on game in and game out?

 

[McSuper]

Don’t disagree.

But you’re not going to be able to acquire a top pairing D through trade. The only way to get a Top D is to draft and develop.

Or UFA signing but we have to have cap space for that .Petro would fit perfectly.

 

[OfCorsiDid]

Or UFA signing but we have to have cap space for that .Petro would fit perfectly.

I’d put the odds of that happening at less than 1%

Additionally, I don’t even want that to happen. You’re gonna be paying a guy on the wrong side of 30 north of 11M a year for 8 years.

 

[nuck]

They got caught flat footed by a team many felt had no business in the post season. Its a reset for everyone in the league and there will be upsets. Not this time of course but you can't assume a sweep. They will get over the weird practice vibe by the next game.

 

[Todd from Leduc]

It’s just one game of 4 boys, seeing a lot of negative posts here but you gotta remember that Chicago was out of the playoffs and have that David vs Goliath first game boost.

We all know with the Kass vs Ratboy saga that Goliath wins in the end. McDavid/Draisaitl is >>> than Kane/Taves over a 4 game period.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

They really should have won that game unless they have a a whole new level of team play than Toews will be suckling at McDAvids bloody teets.

 

[Bring Back Bucky]

I think it has to do with guys like him, Chaisson, and Neal being slow. These guys were dumping pucks in and galloping in like they are in sand. They can never get to the pucks that they dump in fast enough. Do not like this line at all. You need guys like Haas if you want to dump and chase. That Neal line should be carrying the puck in or might as well just lob it to the other team from the red line and get ready for an attack.

Agreed. Chaisson is great at the dump, painful at the chase.

 

[McSuper]

This needs to be a bigger story. Besides points McDavid just isn't impacting the game as much as he should.

I know most people/fans say McDavid is the best player in the world . Watch Crosby play and he a force all over the ice . McDavid May have a slight edge offensively but Crosby is better everywhere else . Love McDavid but he needs to evolve his game like Crosby did .

 

[Bring Back Bucky]

Oilers are notoriously bad with dump and chase. You need players willing to sacrifice some pain for retrieval. We never want to put the work in.

I think it’s largely more due to the players doing the dumping being too slow.

 

[CupofOil]

If its and buts were candies and nuts we'd all have a jolly fine Christmas.

This team lost game 1 because its best players were exposed defensively and slipped back into bad habits and would up chasing the game. The aggressive veteran goalie slipped on a banana peel and killed early momentum. The trade deadline was a reward for an over achieving team with holes and still lacking in team speed. Holland dealt for players he knew deeply qualifying some of the risk and betting on this team which was responsive all year to a veteran coaching staff. In game 1, Chicago's Cup winning veteran core, Toews; Crawford; Keith; Kane elevated their team with smart, technically sound and aggressive play that frankly exposed McDavid; Klefbom and Larssen; aided and abetted by a mediocre turn by Smith in net.

The Oiler culture is set by McDavid, Draisaitl, Klefbom, Nurse and likely Smith. Contrasted to Chicago's leadership group it is inexperienced, still forming, learning and growing. It is unfortunate the new guys haven't come in and established themselves with this team's success. But I have no illusion that nice guy Sam, Haas and Nygard would have the ability to move the needle let alone when the top players were outgunned in game 1. Projecting how players like Kassian and others are perceived by their teammates and coaching staff is pure fandom stuff mainly reflecting one's subjective bias. Tippett and his coaching staff have been great at molding and unifying a disperate group of players to start the season into a developing team with some resiliency. We'll learn a lot about how far this group has come in game 2. But we'll learn most by seeing how the team's best players respond to playoff adversity.

To the bolded, neither do I but if I'm paying two 2nds for somebody he better move the needle and he hasn't. What's worse? Players who cost league minimum not moving the needle or a player who cost two high draft picks not moving the needle?

My overall point is that team chemistry seemed stronger before the trade deadline. Once Ennis and AA were inserted into the lineup, team play dipped and in fact fell off a cliff prior to the pause. It's quite possible that the team would have struggled even if they stood pat at the deadline but the fact of the matter is that Holland paid a premium for a player who has, and lets be honest, been a big dud thus far. AA gives me Spooner flashbacks, a guy who looked pretty good by the raw offensive numbers at his previous stop but in reality is a poor to at best nothing player if they aren't scoring. Both supposedly had skill but here, just sort of... existed without doing much of anything.

I'm excluding Ennis and Green as @Zaddy pointed out because it only cost a 4th and a 5th for those guys so no harm no foul if they don't pan out.
The AA trade, as of today and I hope to god proves me wrong, looks like a fleecing in favor of the Red Wings. I say this after every game but I keep waiting for AA to show me something, any semblance of a spark to offer hope that this could be a guy who can jump into the top 6 and produce and I continue to come away completely underwhelmed every time. The only time I noticed him yesterday was when he was in the penalty box.

 

[iCanada]

It’s just one game of 4 boys, seeing a lot of negative posts here but you gotta remember that Chicago was out of the playoffs and have that David vs Goliath first game boost.

We all know with the Kass vs Ratboy saga that Goliath wins in the end. McDavid/Draisaitl is >>> than Kane/Taves over a 4 game period.

Go back to Calgary Puck, troll.

 

[T-Funk]

I think it’s largely more due to the players doing the dumping being too slow.

That excuses like 3 of our players

 

[McDNicks17]

The Oilers lost because McDavid is too bland according to the Avs' beat writer haha.

 

[Panda Bear]

And my point is even with that, we end up as a bottom 10 team in those stats

Yes.

I'm not going to do the statistics as I'm on my phone, but it's more fruitful to look at standard deviations than league position when it comes to judging improvement. All the statistics point to us being better. Even if we only climbed one rank in the league for this or that, our standard deviations are all closer to the mean than before. We're in a better tier this season than last season.

And as I've stated, we have players who outperform xGoals--two in particular--that make us better than a bottom ten team at even strength.

This isn't even touching special teams, which tend to be called as often (if not more) in the playoffs as compared to the regular season. Feel free to use the ten (!) penalties called in the game last night as an example of whistles not being put away.

The NHL Playoffs and Penalties


We improved in all dimensions. It's okay to change your stance in light of evidence.

 

[oljimmy]

The Oilers lost because McDavid is too bland according to the Avs' beat writer haha.

I hate to say it but this has occurred to me too. I don't doubt that he can turn it around but let's be honest, right now our expectation level is up there with names like Gretz, Lemieux, Messier, Lafleur, Crosby. At some point in their careers each of those guys came out with fire and brimstone personality in a playoff/Olympic/Canada Cup series and it ignited their team. Obviously none of us gets to see what is said behind closed doors and maybe his leadership there is A+. But everyone knows that stuff said during media availability counts for a lot; a guy who's willing to put his balls on the line for the media REALLY believes in his team. I honestly can't remember Connor ever saying anything remotely inspirational during media avails. Every question, the answer is: "For sure. We need to be better there. Um, yeah."

 

[iCanada]

The Oilers lost because McDavid is too bland according to the Avs' beat writer haha.

Wasn't Sakic's nickname for a long time "Captian No Quote?"

Kinda curious, given I am pretty sure Dater was around for much of Sakic's leading the Avs all the way.

 

[oilsplatzz]

Do you know what it is with this team, recent years its been the same thing,at first we get Taylor hall, first pick overall,and we think we have a leg-up on the compitition. Then Nugent hopkins,and Conner McDavid, and Dr drai. Each and every addition we think we get better and all the media praises their talent. The players even believe the hype. Last year, prime example ,some media were saying they were favorites to win the cup,but we shit the bed once again. This year all media saying the Oilers had turned the corner and we could be favorites once again, Conner and the Team probably read this crap.
The one thing they lack through all these years is desperation to win, Gretzky Messier and the past Oilers learned this vital ingredient in building a championship team Hopefully Mc D and the rest will finally "get it" or we will have a early exit once again.