Confirmed with Link: Pageau - 3 years, $9.3M (3.1 AAV)

[Tundraman]

Except you're trying to silence the discussion with 'its just an opinion' and started the whole thing with the statement that Dorion should be fired over this deal.

We're providing actual rationale and reasoning behind why we think it's a reasonable deal (and I don't see anyone overly lauding Dorion for it, just happy that we got Pageau for some time at a decent number).

I still don't see what you are basing this opinion on.

Am I talking to a mod or a user?

 

[Micklebot]

It seems like we're both agreeing to my main point which is that signing Pageau to a 2 year deal for the sake of keeping him as an RFA doesn't accomplish anything, but I am pretty sure that increase is only for players on very low money contracts. I don't know the exact numbers off the top of my head, but Pageau wouldn't qualify for an increase in salary if he were to accept his qualifying offer and sign a 1 year deal based on it.

You, good sir, are correct,

110% of the base salary if the base salary is less than or equal to $660,000
105% of the base salary if the base salary is greater than $660,000 or less than $1,000,000. However, this qualifying offer cannot exceed $1,000,000.
100% of the base salary if the base salary is equal to or greater than $1,000,000.

 

[Caeldan]

It seems like we're both agreeing to my main point which is that signing Pageau to a 2 year deal for the sake of keeping him as an RFA doesn't accomplish anything, but I am pretty sure that increase is only for players on very low money contracts. I don't know the exact numbers off the top of my head, but Pageau wouldn't qualify for an increase in salary if he were to accept his qualifying offer and sign a 1 year deal based on it.

Okay, actually looked it up.
You're right. QO is 100% of previous year's salary for anything over 1M.
The 10% raise clause applies to 660k or less. It's a 5% raise for values in between 660k and 1M.

 

[Caeldan]

Am I talking to a mod or a user?

Unless I'm moderating something, I'm any other poster on the site.
I'm just using your words regarding your attempt to avoid being challenged on your opinion

All I'm asking for is for you to support your claims on why this is a deal worth firing Dorion over.
The other side of the table has provided several different rationale and reasonings for why it's reasonable and workable.

To summarize again the main points for this deal (there may be more I've missed, currently also studying for a thermodynamics test) :
1. The three year deal is cheaper than the two year plus 1y bridge, and we can negotiate longer extensions at exactly the same time regardless.
2. Most non-superstar players are taking 3y deals this season in preparation for lockout shenanigans.
3. 2y deal would also line up with a Karlsson extension which will take precedence and may preclude the proper attention required for a deal.
4. A longer deal would mean adding years that are likely in excess of 4M, based on comparables signed this year. Which would only serve to raise the RFA cap hit years, while providing no benefits outside of potentially a cost controlled trade asset... However the primary argument also seems to be that we want to keep him a senator, so being a trade asset shouldn't be a consideration.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

If he'd signed him longer it would have had a higher cap hit possibly over 4. Imagine the Dorion ******** when our 3Rd line center is an over 4 Mil cap hit, yikes.

 

[Shruggs Peterson]

This is quite a good deal for both sides. Cheaper than I had anticipated him to sign for.

 

[PeterSidorkiewicz]

This is quite a good deal for both sides. Cheaper than I had anticipated him to sign for.

Do you always keep hot dogs in your pocket?

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

That is a bit high for a 3rd liner. I'm glad he's signed, but it's about $500k higher than it should be per year.

 

[Caeldan]

That is a bit high for a 3rd liner. I'm glad he's signed, but it's about $500k higher than it should be per year.

Considering his ATOI, he's definitely used as more than just a third liner.
Plus as aragorn pointed out, he puts butts in the seats from the Gatineau side of things and is about the only one to do so.

 

[PeterSidorkiewicz]

That is a bit high for a 3rd liner. I'm glad he's signed, but it's about $500k higher than it should be per year.

Went back to the 2017-2018 Sens lineup thread and it looks like I predicted 3.5m per year and was thinking 3 years. So he got less than what I expected.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Went back to the 2017-2018 Sens lineup thread and it looks like I predicted 3.5m per year and was thinking 3 years. So he got less than what I expected.

lol, I was hoping for 2.25x2 (iirc).

I really like Pageau. I'm not knocking the kid, but the heart can't get involved in contract negotiations. We've got to make sure there's still cap room for Erik in the next 2 years. Unless Dorion has an ace up his sleeve and has the ability to move a Ryan or Phaneuf contract....

 

[Shruggs Peterson]

Do you always keep hot dogs in your pocket?

Just easier that way.
I would encourage Pageau to do the same now that he has more than enough ''Pocket Dog'' money...

 

[Caeldan]

lol, I was hoping for 2.25x2 (iirc).

I really like Pageau. I'm not knocking the kid, but the heart can't get involved in contract negotiations. We've got to make sure there's still cap room for Erik in the next 2 years. Unless Dorion has an ace up his sleeve and has the ability to move a Ryan or Phaneuf contract....

We'll have the money. It just might mean we take a forward on an ELC instead of an equivalent player to Brassard (he comes off the books at the same time as Karlsson, as does Burrows, Thompson and Pyatt)

 

[chipsens]

Finally, the Sens have locked up their enforcer punches way above his weight. Love this.

 

[L'Aveuglette]

That is a bit high for a 3rd liner. I'm glad he's signed, but it's about $500k higher than it should be per year.

I guess if you only look at Pageau as a third liner and forget everything else he provides your argument makes sense.

As it stands though, this is actually quite a good deal for the Sens.

 

[Caeldan]

Just easier that way.
I would encourage Pageau to do the same now that he has more than enough ''Pocket Dog'' money...

Time to open a Pocket Parm franchise!

 

[Xspyrit]

Don't really like it. Pageau with an AAV of 3.1 during his RFA years? I like him but he's not a top-6 forward

If it was 5 or 6 years, then great deal but it is not.

Look at what Stone, Hoffman, Turris, Zibanejad, Karlsson got in their RFA years...

I know Murray took a lot of heat but right now I miss him when I see Dorion moves.

Now how much is Pageau is going to ask on his next deal? He will end up being overpaid or he will be somewhere else. Great.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Don't really like it. Pageau with an AAV of 3.1 during his RFA years? I like him but he's not a top-6 forward

If it was 5 or 6 years, then great deal but it is not.

Look at what Stone, Hoffman, Turris, Zibanejad, Karlsson got in their RFA years...

I know Murray took a lot of heat but right now I miss him when I see Dorion moves.

Now how much is Pageau is going to ask on his next deal? He will end up being overpaid or he will be somewhere else. Great.

I agree that I am surprised at how high the contract is, but there's one big hitch about that list. Aside from Hoffman, none of those players were eligible for arbitration. Zib for example, his last deal should be compared with the deal Pageau is coming off of where Pageau made around 1M as that was Pageau's none arbitration qualifying RFA deal.

With Pageau's TOI along with non-PP points being similar to Brassard+Hoffman, and not that far off from Turris, along with hits, quality of competition, strong playoff, etc, I can see why they'd be afraid to go to arbitration rather than sign a deal that gets Pageau at 2.4M for this upcoming season.

This is far from a home run, and I would have predicted a deal much cheaper than this, but I can potentially see why this happened with arbitration looming.

It's a different scenario with Dzingel because realistically, his claim wouldn't be as strong as Pageau's who has a legit statistical case to get paid.

 

[DrEasy]

If you voted for a different term than a 3-yr contract in this thread but are defending the one that was signed, can you explain the change of heart?

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

If you voted for a different term than a 3-yr contract in this thread but are defending the one that was signed, can you explain the change of heart?

I originally voted 3.25 x 5 but revised it down when I looked at his 3 RFA years

3 RFA years ... IMO his 3 RFA years are less than 3. He's currently at 900k

2 , 2.25, 2.5, 3.25, 3.5 (RFA)

2.7 AAV over 5

I was low obviously... he's getting 2.6, 3.3, 3.4 all RFA years..

I think its a little generous but I really like the player. I think he's been at a bargain basement price for 2 years and I don't think 3.1 AAV is too far out of whack.

 

[Deku]

Don't really like it. Pageau with an AAV of 3.1 during his RFA years? I like him but he's not a top-6 forward

3 mil is very fair for an elite 3rd liner. Any top 6 forward making 3 mil is underpaid, or not very good

 

[Tundraman]

If you aren't being tongue in cheek about all of this... I nominate you for biggest overreaction in Sens HF History. If you really believe that Dorion should be fired for signing Pageau to a 3 year $3.1 million deal.

Dude, go and get your blood pressure checked ASAP. You could be about to stroke out.

Look who's all worked up about an opinion. Relax man don't hurt yourself!

I like Pageau too but Dorion certainly doesn't deserve any credit for negotiating this contract. I'm not going to kiss Dorion's butt for doing what no other GM likely would have done and this isn't the 1st time he's given in to a player/agent and it won't be the last so if I'm the owner I cut my losses.

If others think Dorion did a fantastic job on this contract it's no skin off my back. Like it or not it's everyone's right to agree or disagree but it's out there so don't try to silence a differing opinion from what may be the majority.

Except you're trying to silence the discussion with 'its just an opinion' and started the whole thing with the statement that Dorion should be fired over this deal.

We're providing actual rationale and reasoning behind why we think it's a reasonable deal (and I don't see anyone overly lauding Dorion for it, just happy that we got Pageau for some time at a decent number).

I still don't see what you are basing this opinion on.

Am I talking to a mod or a user?

Unless I'm moderating something, I'm any other poster on the site.
I'm just using your words regarding your attempt to avoid being challenged on your opinion

All I'm asking for is for you to support your claims on why this is a deal worth firing Dorion over.
The other side of the table has provided several different rationale and reasonings for why it's reasonable and workable.

To summarize again the main points for this deal (there may be more I've missed, currently also studying for a thermodynamics test) :
1. The three year deal is cheaper than the two year plus 1y bridge, and we can negotiate longer extensions at exactly the same time regardless.
2. Most non-superstar players are taking 3y deals this season in preparation for lockout shenanigans.
3. 2y deal would also line up with a Karlsson extension which will take precedence and may preclude the proper attention required for a deal.
4. A longer deal would mean adding years that are likely in excess of 4M, based on comparables signed this year. Which would only serve to raise the RFA cap hit years, while providing no benefits outside of potentially a cost controlled trade asset... However the primary argument also seems to be that we want to keep him a senator, so being a trade asset shouldn't be a consideration.

My last post before you addressed me was in answer to someone who tried a childish intimidation tactic to silence me with some fake "nomination" threat which made me chuckle. You let that go but didn't miss the chance to accuse me instead when I answered him in kind just for fun. It took me aback at first and that's why I asked if you were speaking as a mod. Your statement "Except you're trying to silence the discussion with 'its just an opinion' " as just a "regular user" would be out of context and make no sense to me so you could see how some might view it as a public reprimand. Seriously, what discussion am I silencing by stating the obvious "that it's my opinion"?

It's good to know you are posting as just another user so I can freely comment without animosity. I saw you as the one with the "title" accusing me of silencing the majority??? Your comment seemed self serving to me based on your previous posts. I hadn't petitioned anyone to agree with my views on this deal and only answered a few times when someone quoted me, yourself included but only to bring correction after you made an out-of-date quote of mine the first time. I ignored a 2nd misquote even though you did it again after that. I disagreed with some of your numbers in the thread but had no intention of posting about them although I'll touch on some now. I just felt you were overestimating what Pageau would have gotten in an award.

I can understand why someone would question why I want Dorion gone over this deal but for me it's just another symptom. When just about everyone agrees with the bottom line..."They are all happy to have Pageau signed" then no one questions the process. Every explanation seems reasonable fair and plausible Floating numbers that Pageau would have received near or in excess of $4M on a 5 year deal or claiming that he would have somehow been given 2 years at/or over $3M like $3.4M if he'd gone to arbitration (I believe you said $3.3M in year 2 yourself did you not and mentioned some number near $3.63M as I recall?) and the Sens would be stuck to pay him $3.7 or more maybe $4M in year 3 (never mind that arbitrator can only give 1 award amount not 2 different amounts per year or that the Sens held the term option which some didn't know or forgot). Who's exaggerating? Is it ok to throw those numbers around like they are "facts" but when I say that giving a 3 year term at a aav of $3.1M is bad that's not ok. Those exaggerated "dollar suppositions" help everyone feel better thinking the Sens got a great deal but then if I say more we'll be back to asset management and no one wants to talk about that. If I saw correctly some even used UFA players signings as a comparison but no one blinked. Yes it's true I'm not a fan of Dorion. If I was the owner I wouldn't have hired him but if I was owner today not just based on this but on other deals he wouldn't have the GM job on my team. It's just 1 more thing on the pile.

It doesn't matter how much the GM, coach or fans like the player. Heaven forbid the day they start paying players for how many tickets they sell as one suggested but it's ok to write a whole post about that I guess it's a valid argument at least no one challenged it so it must be good. Pageau was an RFA for 3 more years. He scored 12 goals and made $1.1M last year. I know he's a defensive favorite and a good PK'er but how much does the value of a defensive player show up in arbitration awards. There is no reason to believe that an arbitrator would award Pageau much over $2M if he even went that high and then the Sens would have had the option to go 1 year or 2 to keep the 3rd year RFA option open. Remember when Hoffman had 2 years left and went to arb. Everyone was so sure he'd hit a home run because he had 27 goals and 48 points but he got a $2M award and the Sens gambled a bit and chose the 1 year option to secure his rights for one more year as an RFA. He performed even better and got a richer deal after that but those types of contracts are usually reserved for a high points producers and he still only topped off at $3.8M in his last RFA year even though he surpassed his previous year's numbers. The point is he did well with what the Sens ended up giving him but there was no freebie from the arbitrator even with his high goals total and no.... not in our lifetime.... Pageau would not have gotten a Hoffman type deal in year 3 or as a UFA after that unless he started producing like that. Thinking Pageau was a shoe-in for a plus $3.4M deal in his RFA year 3 is a pipe dream (IMO ) he's good but not that valuable (yet).

I took off my fan hat and made an argument based on keeping the hammer in management's hands something which Dorion seems quite willing to give up much too easily with the deals he's made. It's something I believe a good manager would use to the team's advantage. The way the pendulum has swung with years and age, it's one of the few things a team controls today. Money has to be saved somewhere for your top line guys or you end up with all scrubs and rookies in your bottom 6. Attracting quality UFA's can be costly in term and dollars. ELC are pretty well decided but you can only play those guys in limited situations and toi. Extra UFAs can be bought with picks at the deadline but that will affect your stable if overdone. Every million saved on your RFA matters it's one of the few things over which you have some cost control. For me, any GM who doesn't take advantage of that is not doing his job.

If people are happy with the payout, the fact Pageau is a UFA at deals end and think the Sens got a great deal it's fine by me but for me it looks more like an agent drawn contract than one of a GM who has to manage the team's limited budget.

Anyways I've had my say, just so I "don't silence the discussion" of the whole board on the subject I don't plan on adding anything else here unless we hear more from the Sens front office and it's worth my time.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

If you voted for a different term than a 3-yr contract in this thread but are defending the one that was signed, can you explain the change of heart?

Most people in that thread (myself included) were out of touch with what it would have cost to buy up UFA years. A lot of those long term ideal contracts were in at 3.5M at around 4-5 years and that's with a lot of posters still operating on the idea that a 5 year contract would buy up 3 UFA years not just 2. So they were drastically under pricing it.

It's okay to be wrong and it's okay to not get exactly what you would have ideally wanted but still understand why something shacked out a certain way. Assuming Dorion is telling the truth about Pageau placed a high cost on buying up UFA years. 1 or 2 years would have made little sense for reasons already discussed in this thread. 3 years seemingly was a fair resolution that allowed the Senators to get a cheaper year 1 while not having to risk arbitration going badly for them.

 

[Deku]

Seriously, what discussion am I silencing by stating the obvious "that it's my opinion"?

It's seen as a cop-out if you say it without actually elaborating on said opinion to defend it.

 

[Tundraman]

It's seen as a cop-out if you say it without actually elaborating on said opinion to defend it.

Constructive comment. Need more like that.

Is that considered an opinion and should I elaborate?

Edit:

I jest a bit but I'm not making fun. I appreciate what you posted so maybe I should clarify. I didn't really know that one had to explain and justify every opinion. So if someone gets their shorts in a twist over something someone posts then the op is under obligation to explain. Isn't most of what is posted here just opinions?